True. It's difficult to prove either way. Actually
@Jesse if you're reading it would be cool if you researched this to see if the narrative about AHL seasoning leading to NHL success is a true one. I know you're always receptive to ideas for articles so that might be an interesting topic to look at some time. Or maybe someone else has already done a study that I do not know of.
As for your last point Peat yes Sullivan has more information than you or I but that doesn't mean his decisions are necessarily more sound. JR has access to loads of more data points than I do about JJ but there's a near universal consensus in the analytics community that the JJ signing was a huge mistake and that he has performed badly. Saying JR is right because he has more information would just be deferring to authority. Authority is not always correct.