Prospect Info: Alexander Romanov - Part 5

[Hanji]

Few things as to why I value AHL higher than every men league in Europe :

- Small ice surface
- More physical (main argument)
- They have a vet maximum rule, but those vets could probably play on a 4th NHL line and not look so bad
- Everybody is fighting for an NHL spot so they play at their best

I think if you put let's say a Liiga team on a small ice surface, I think they would struggle with the physicality of the AHL. If you put an AHL team on a bigger ice surface, they might have a hard time with the speed of their game. But since hockey is harder on a smaller ice rink, I put the AHL above Liiga. SHL is pretty close to AHL tho, could probably ranked them 3A and 3B.

No, the top Euro leagues are better. The AHL is, first and foremost, a developmental league where winning is secondary to player development. Ice time allocation doesn't always reflect current merit.

In general terms, a reasonable comparison is double-A vs triple-A baseball. Even though it’s lower level, clubs prefer to have their top prospects play AA. AAA is commonly for topped out vets.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Despite his terrible start to the season, I just don't see how Romanov makes the list and Kotkaniemi doesn't.

Does it have anything to do with the WJC last year? I'm assuming so and that ranking is about current trends and projection. Kotkaniemi did not take a step forward like Svechnikov did this year. I like Kotkaniemi at lot but I expect growing pains and my opinion on him has not changed from draft day... Long term prospect.

Romanov is not racking up the points in the KHL but he's a good one! Physical guy on D that skates very well and has some offensive ability. What's the weakness to his game if we are picky?

 

[Habs Halifax]

This list is weird... Romanov there but no Kotkaniemi? Seems very reactionary... Yes he's had a bad start but he's barely 19 lol. Quinn Hughes at 33 ?? He should be top 20 IMO.

It's a list gathered from several opinions. Are they right or close? Likely not cause things change so much year to year. Kotkaniemi did not take a step forward this year and people are all over current trends these days. If you struggle, you will get the meh treatment.

Just cause we inserted Kotkaniemi prematurely as a center cause our center depth was bad, "not looking out of place" does not mean much to me. Plus he has stalled in his 2nd year so far. Romanov is not racking up points in the KHL but he is being sheltered as a 19 year D man on that top KHL team. If you were to pick flaws in each of their game, I think you can quickly talk about Kotkaniemi's but what would we say about Romanov? He's got all tools you look for... Skating, Plays Physical, offensive vision.

In 12 months time, the list will change drastically (especially from 25-50 range). If anything, it goes to show the Toronto Media is noticing what kind of game Romanov has. This says something to me cause they never pump up any Habs assets.

 

[Hfbsux]

No, the top Euro leagues are better. The AHL is, first and foremost, a developmental league where winning is secondary to player development. Ice time allocation doesn't always reflect current merit.

In general terms, a reasonable comparison is double-A vs triple-A baseball. Even though it’s lower level, clubs prefer to have their top prospects play AA. AAA is commonly for topped out vets.

I play and am a huge baseball fan, I know how their minor system work but I don't see the connexion to hockey. The 2 leagues are a completely different product and one (AHL) ressemble more of the NHL. Not sure if a team would rather have their top prospect play in the SHL instead of the AHL when they are 21. For a 19 years old kid, I it would be better to play him in Europe and ease him to the pro North American style of play when he's 20-21.

 

[JoelWarlord]

I think if you put let's say a Liiga team on a small ice surface, I think they would struggle with the physicality of the AHL. If you put an AHL team on a bigger ice surface, they might have a hard time with the speed of their game. But since hockey is harder on a smaller ice rink, I put the AHL above Liiga. SHL is pretty close to AHL tho, could probably ranked them 3A and 3B.

If these things were true at the team level they'd also be true at the indivdual level and historically players coming from Liiga/Swiss/Czech etc to the NHL are only slightly less effective than AHLers jumping to the NHL. There's some sample issues there given it's generally more skilled prospects coming over but I would suspect the average 3rd/4th liners in the SHL/Liiga are probably better than the AHL since they're legitimate career pros rather than a constant churn of prospects and/or AHL goons.

The AHL is a better league than Liiga but the gap is much smaller than it is between the AHL and SHL or KHL. In terms of NHL equivalencies (link here) historically players coming from Liiga retain about 45% of their scoring (i.e. a 100 point scorer in Liiga can be expected to score 45p in the NHL), and it's around 48% for the AHL, with the Czech and Swiss leagues in that ballpark as well. SHL is around 60% and KHL is around 80%. It's more a clear 1/2/3 with NHL/KHL/SHL and a big drop between each of those, and then the AHL is probably the 4A with Liiga/Swiss/Czech in the 4B-D tier just behind the AHL.

 

[Hfbsux]

If these things were true at the team level they'd also be true at the indivdual level and historically players coming from Liiga/Swiss/Czech etc to the NHL are only slightly less effective than AHLers jumping to the NHL. There's some sample issues there given it's generally more skilled prospects coming over but I would suspect the average 3rd/4th liners in the SHL/Liiga are probably better than the AHL since they're legitimate career pros rather than a constant churn of prospects and/or AHL goons.

The AHL is a better league than Liiga but the gap is much smaller than it is between the AHL and SHL or KHL. In terms of NHL equivalencies (link here) historically players coming from Liiga retain about 45% of their scoring (i.e. a 100 point scorer in Liiga can be expected to score 45p in the NHL), and it's around 48% for the AHL, with the Czech and Swiss leagues in that ballpark as well. SHL is around 60% and KHL is around 80%. It's more a clear 1/2/3 with NHL/KHL/SHL and a big drop between each of those, and then the AHL is probably the 4A with Liiga/Swiss/Czech in the 4B-D tier just behind the AHL.

I've seen those before, they are based on points only. Thing is, NHL teams call players up from the AHL for a few games when they have injuries. These guys won't score a lot of points since they'll probably play on the 4th line with a defensive role compared to a guy who decides to cross over for the year after dominating a pro league for x many years. This fact put the AHL players to a disadvantage. If the AHL league wasn't the call-up league for the NHL, the stats would make more sense.

 

[JoelWarlord]

I've seen those before, they are based on points only. Thing is, NHL teams call players up from the AHL for a few games when they have injuries. These guys won't score a lot of points since they'll probably play on the 4th line with a defensive role compared to a guy who decides to cross over for the year after dominating a pro league for x many years. This fact put the AHL players to a disadvantage. If the AHL league wasn't the call-up league for the NHL, the stats would make more sense.

Yeah they're not perfect but as a rough ranking I think they're hard to argue with. I certainly wouldn't use NHL equivalencies to argue definitively that the Czech league is 5% better than the Finnish league or something, but when there's a vast gap between AHL and SHL, and in turn SHL and KHL players who make the jump to the NHL I think it's reasonable to use as a proxy.

The translation factors I linked don't include players with under 20 NHL games in a given season in their calculations (eg. Riley Barber's 3 NHL games don't mean he's included in the AHL -> NHL translation rate) so it's not depressing the numbers with short term depth call-ups. If anything the callups are just another point in favour of the European leagues (specifically SHL and KHL) vs. the AHL. If top line SHL/KHL players come to the NHL and take top 6 roles, why can't top line AHLers do the same if the AHL is a bettter league? Guys like Riley Barber score about as much in the AHL as guys like Kuznetsov, Dadonov, Radulov, etc did in the KHL yet they're not even close to NHL level, let alone top 6 calibre.

_________________

EDIT: For what it's worth the main thing I'm getting at is that the KHL and SHL (and other Euro leagues) are "legitimate" pro leagues if that makes sense. They in some ways function as a development league to the NHL or even each other, but Euro pro leagues are legitimate professional sports teams that are first and foremost playing to win with development mostly in service to the long term health of the franchise (because they have their own development leagues). This means the level of play is higher even if the talent looks higher in the AHL, Ryan Poehling has more name value than a KHLer like Linden Vey or something, but a 28 y/o Linden Vey is definitely a better player today than a 20 year old Poehling, and by the time Poehling develops he's out of the AHL and replaced with another young player on his way up while the KHL teams are cycling through veterans in their primes.

Just looking at the average ages of teams, most AHL teams average ages are in the 22-24 years old range, while KHL and SHL teams are in the 25-27 range. AHL teams probably have more talent with the young up and coming prospects on the team, but KHL and SHL teams are filled out with legitimate pro veterans that are in the prime of their careers vs. AHL veterans who are usually either ringers/mentors like Taormina you sign to boost your team or guys like Alzner/Weise on the downswing who won't go to Europe because they have NHL paycheques.

 

[Hfbsux]

Yeah they're not perfect but as a rough ranking I think they're hard to argue with. I certainly wouldn't use NHL equivalencies to argue definitively that the Czech league is 5% better than the Finnish league or something, but when there's a vast gap between AHL and SHL, and in turn SHL and KHL players who make the jump to the NHL I think it's reasonable to use as a proxy.

The translation factors I linked don't include players with under 20 NHL games in a given season in their calculations (eg. Riley Barber's 3 NHL games don't mean he's included in the AHL -> NHL translation rate) so it's not depressing the numbers with short term depth call-ups. If anything the callups are just another point in favour of the European leagues (specifically SHL and KHL) vs. the AHL. If top line SHL/KHL players come to the NHL and take top 6 roles, why can't top line AHLers do the same if the AHL is a bettter league? Guys like Riley Barber score about as much in the AHL as guys like Kuznetsov, Dadonov, Radulov, etc did in the KHL yet they're not even close to NHL level, let alone top 6 calibre.

EDIT: For what it's worth the main thing I'm getting at is that the KHL and SHL (and other Euro leagues) are "legitimate" pro leagues if that makes sense. They in some ways function as a development league to the NHL or even each other, but Euro pro leagues are legitimate professional sports teams that are first and foremost playing to win with development only in service to the long term health of the franchise, compared to the AHL which is still explicitly an NHL development league.

Just looking at the average ages of teams, most AHL teams average ages are in the 22-24 years old range, while KHL and SHL teams are in the 25-27 range. AHL teams probably have more talent with the young up and coming prospects on the team, but KHL and SHL teams are filled out with legitimate pro veterans that are in the prime of their careers and are playing in that league as their "peak". In comparison AHL 3rd liners are often B prospects or guys that are still adjusting to the pro game and there's a lot of younger guys on the teams overall.

I wasn't aware that they didn't take in account a player's production of 20 games or less. Makes more sense that way. I agree that the KHL is way better than the AHL. I can live with SHL being better than AHL, would love to see interleague games between the 2. What limits the strenght of the AHL, is the maximum number of vets per team.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I wasn't aware that they didn't take in account a player's production of 20 games or less. Makes more sense that way. I agree that the KHL is way better than the AHL. I can live with SHL being better than AHL, would love to see interleague games between the 2. What limits the strenght of the AHL, is the maximum number of vets per team.

There has to be variance year to year too right? Hard to nail down how good each league is but I'm with you, would be nice to see champion vs champion from the AHL to the SHL for example.

 

[Adam Michaels]

 

[ahmedou]

We must be truly desperate to come to Romanov for help.

 

[pepperMonkey]

He's going to trade him isn't he??

 

[montreal]

He's going to trade him isn't he??

no I very much doubt that. Even if he somehow doesn't sign I don't see that happening unless he says he'll never sign as the Habs know they need him over here badly.

 

[pepperMonkey]

no I very much doubt that. Even if he somehow doesn't sign I don't see that happening unless he says he'll never sign as the Habs know they need him over here badly.

If he actually thinks Romanov has a chance to just waltz into the NHL and play big for us...well...he must be getting rather desperate...

 

[montreal]

If he actually thinks Romanov has a chance to just waltz into the NHL and play big for us...well...he must be getting rather desperate...

he does have the chance since our d needs a lot of improvement and I bet he will get the chance because he's very solid. If Romanov wants to play in the NHL, all he has to do is sign with us and it's done as he plays such a sound defensive game while playing a very solid physical game. There's a reason why he's one of our top prospects.

 

[The Great Weal]

he does have the chance since our d needs a lot of improvement and I bet he will get the chance because he's very solid. If Romanov wants to play in the NHL, all he has to do is sign with us and it's done as he plays such a sound defensive game while playing a very solid physical game. There's a reason why he's one of our top prospects.

Would it be the worst idea? Kulak/Rielly aren't cutting it and it seems like Romanovs minutes in the KHL are all over the place. We could also send him down to Laval no?

 

[montreal]

Would it be the worst idea? Kulak/Rielly aren't cutting it and it seems like Romanovs minutes in the KHL are all over the place. We could also send him down to Laval no?

yes he can be sent to Laval, any of our drafted prospects that aren't CHLers can be sent down. Now his agent could ask for a clause that if he were to get sent down he could opt to go back to Russia if he wanted but I would be surprised if he did that.

I fully expect Romanov to be signed this summer and I think he'll be on the Habs or at least see some games at some point next season.

 

[abo9]

We must be truly desperate to come to Romanov for help.

More desperate than Victor Mete or Cale Fleury? Romanov has been playing in the KHL last season and this season and all the comments I see about him is that he looks solid, but doesn't get enough minutes.

 

[The Great Weal]

yes he can be sent to Laval, any of our drafted prospects that aren't CHLers can be sent down. Now his agent could ask for a clause that if he were to get sent down he could opt to go back to Russia if he wanted but I would be surprised if he did that.

I fully expect Romanov to be signed this summer and I think he'll be on the Habs or at least see some games at some point next season.

If he isn't getting enough minutes in the KHL, wouldn't it be better to get minutes in the NHL or AHL? Not saying he is ruined, but I think more minutes could be better for him.

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

He's going to trade him isn't he??

That's Marc.

 

[montreal]

If he isn't getting enough minutes in the KHL, wouldn't it be better to get minutes in the NHL or AHL? Not saying he is ruined, but I think more minutes could be better for him.

he's not getting enough minutes, just over 12 per game so that's why I think it's a good thing as I got to think he's being dicked around because they want him to re-sign and he wants to come to the NHL when his contract with CSKA is up in April. So while I don't like to rush players, but by next season he'll have 2 full seasons in the KHL under his belt, he's already got NHL skating, mobility, speed and strength. His defensive game is top notch while also having a very solid physical game. Him and Fleury as a pair would just wreck shit, not that I would put them together as we'll see where Fleury's game is at come next season.

So for me I think he's going to be in the NHL next year, maybe if he struggles a bit they send him to Laval to get some work, adjust to the smaller ice. I wouldn't be against him going to Laval as I would like to see him work on his offensive game but I think he will be in the NHL.

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

One thing I know for sure from watching him in the past two seasons is that he could play on our third pairing next match with zero issues . He's ready for the next step and he'll only get better. Get him over and worry about the rest later.

 

[montreal]

One thing I know for sure from watching him in the past two seasons is that he could play on our third pairing next match with zero issues . He's ready for the next step and he'll only get better. Get him over and worry about the rest later.

for sure, the only question I have had has been about the offensive upside as it's very hard to gauge from the KHL. I assume he could step in next year and be around what Mete produced last year as a start.

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

for sure, the only question I have had has been about the offensive upside as it's very hard to gauge from the KHL. I assume he could step in next year and be around what Mete produced last year as a start.

I tend to see his WJC production as more of an anomaly than anything else but as you said it's hard to tell since he has to hold back in the KHL . I haven't seen him shoot the puck much or try to do complicated plays but he's a very good skater and his puck skills aren't bad so who knows ? I think style wise he'll probably be a bit like Fleury, an occasional rush here and there but mostly just good, solid positioning defense.

 

[cphabs]

Romanov is a young, charismatic, highly skilled, educated, and well paid defenseman in his own country.
MB better have a trunk full of money when they meet...
I’d be surprised if Romanov doesn’t resign with the KHL.. especially after a meeting with MB