Prospect Info: Alex Nylander (2016, 8th) – '17-18: Rochester #92 (AHL)

[pigpen65]

The problem with Grigorenko was that he spent time in teh Q, AHL, and NHL in each of his first two post-draft seasons.

That was a Sabres mishandling of his development thing.

I see it the exact opposite. If you start a guy in the NHL and he can't cut it you drop him down. If you start a guy in the AHL and he can't cut it you drop him down. That's what should happen. In both seasons Grigo's play was evaluated and he ended up where he needed to be. I don't understand why nothing happened with Nylander. Now he's at a point of being benched, in the AHL. Not doing anything even though everybody can see something needs to be done seems way worse to me.

 

[Chainshot]

I see it the exact opposite. If you start a guy in the NHL and he can't cut it you drop him down. If you start a guy in the AHL and he can't cut it you drop him down. That's what should happen. In both seasons Grigo's play was evaluated and he ended up where he needed to be. I don't understand why nothing happened with Nylander. Now he's at a point of being benched, in the AHL. Not doing anything even though everybody can see something needs to be done seems way worse to me.

Your method is often unsuccessful. Slot players correctly, let them grow their game at the proper level. That’s what most clubs do with a vast majority of developing players. Regier messes up with both Grigorenko and Girgensons, trying to fill a hole his lack of drafting and development had created.

 

[pigpen65]

Your method is often unsuccessful. Slot players correctly, let them grow their game at the proper level. That’s what most clubs do with a vast majority of developing players. Regier messes up with both Grigorenko and Girgensons, trying to fill a hole his lack of drafting and development had created.

It that what's happening with Nylander?

 

[Chainshot]

It that what's happening with Nylander?

Stagnation and not being at the right tier for development, at the behest of his handlers? Yes.

 

[old kummelweck]

If a scientist were to devise an experiment to show the importance of a good development path, I'm not sure if he could get any closer than the two Nylander brothers and TOR/BUF.

 

[old kummelweck]

It's just that the absolute last thing this team needs is a talented kid with drive/motivation issues. The way the organization has trended the last few years, he'll never see his potential. Even the passionate guys are getting beaten/worn down from it all... Nylander doesn't stand a chance.

He'd probably do much better in an organization where they already have the groundwork for success laid out and doesn't need him to be much more than what he is... and we'd probably do much better even with slightly lower grade assets that bring it every night.

I'm not an Amerks regular, but my impression was he needed a center from the games I watched. He came up here at the end and didn't look out of place - actually looked pretty good to me. People are frustrated with this kid, and I get that. But I think they are also frustrated watching the Amerks go down 0-2 and they are ready to blow up the farm now. I look at the Amerk situation, and see a young club where the roster volatility with call ups and late signings is maybe contributing to the start in this series.

Could a change of scenery help Nylander? Most likely, but you would sell low. I also saw the same sentiment for Reinhart this year, and even I was starting to wonder if a change wouldn't help him, but the Sabres got him on track on an NHL club, and I am hopeful they can do the same for Nylander in Roch.

 

[joshjull]

As for Nylander, I’m not ready to write him off yet. We still have 3 years of his ELC to see if he can figure it out.

 

[Zip15]

He needs to be at or just below a point/game player in the AHL next season. Plenty of pretty good NHL forwards had uneven D+2 seasons in the AHL. Most, however, came on in the D+3 season. We have to hope that 21 pts in the final 29 games is a sign that he can put it together next year when he has the benefit of a full training camp and preseason.

 

[EichHart]

Dylan Strome is finally starting to figure it out. Young developmental prospects take time.

 

[dugman]

I would love to see better out of Nylander so far, but by the same token, most of us would prefer our obituaries to not be written about what we accomplished by age 20. If his work ethic develops to match his skills, we will be pleased he’s a Sabre.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

He is one of the only legit top 6 forward prospects we have. After suffering for the last few years pinning our Hope's on Bailey, fasching and baptiste when clearly all 3 were project bottom 6 forwards at best it is nice st least having a top 8 draft pick in the system. He just turned 20. How many other draft picks from 2016 are in the ahl?

 

[DJN21]

So you’re saying to sell high. And you said you hit the panic button last year. So you’re pretty much saying he’s going to regress from this point. A 20 year old player is going to go backwards in his development. Gotcha.

Shouldnt that say something about the confidence in the inability of the coaching staff to get something out of Nylander though?

How do you feel about Botts “theory” of drafting and developing players slowly? Curious how you feel about that.

He may "move forward" but not enough to justify his draft position...that' what I'm selling high on. He may progress but not at what you' expect of an 8th overall pick especially considering his peers.

The coaching staff has nothing to do with it if they are working with a player who has a plus shot and literally no other skill to make him stand out. The staff isn't responsible for giving him skills he neither has nor doesn't work for.

Who cares about botts theory? Nylander wasn't even his pick lol. He can slow cook a guy to stew if he' a scrub. That point is asinine. Plus...

STRAWMAN!

 

[GellMann]

I would love to see better out of Nylander so far, but by the same token, most of us would prefer our obituaries to not be written about what we accomplished by age 20. If his work ethic develops to match his skills, we will be pleased he’s a Sabre.

So, which work ethic issue enigma prospect ever turned that switch on in AHL year 3 as opposed to 2?

 

[sabrebuild]

Myers missed more time than Bogo did over the years since the trade. Only difference is he is healthy today.

And that, he is actually good at hockey.

 

[paulmm3]

I'm not thrilled with Nylander's development by any stretch but, as others have said, we have time. He's 20, he's Sabres property for a lot of years, and it's not like we urgently need a contribution from this one player at the NHL level to push us over the hump and into contention. Wait and hope. It's better than selling low.

 

[joshjull]

So, which work ethic issue enigma prospect ever turned that switch on in AHL year 3 as opposed to 2?

Not sure thats the best way to frame it. His 3rd AHL season will be his draft +3 season. Bailey/Baptiste just played their 3rd AHL season in their draft +5 season. Not really parallel situations developmentally.

I'm not going to hold it against the kid that the powers that be made a mistake by rushing him into the AHL. He should have played at least one more year in juniors after getting drafted.

 

[toomuchsauce]

It's just that the absolute last thing this team needs is a talented kid with drive/motivation issues. The way the organization has trended the last few years, he'll never see his potential. Even the passionate guys are getting beaten/worn down from it all... Nylander doesn't stand a chance.

1) He'd probably do much better in an organization where they already have the groundwork for success laid out and doesn't need him to be much more than what he is... and 2) we'd probably do much better even with slightly lower grade assets that bring it every night.

re: the bolded: Part 1 is almost certainly correct; but Part 2 is, imo, suspect. Sure, the organization needs, in the parlance of NFL draft pundits, "high motor guys." But, the Sabres also equally need guys who know how to get open, receive a pass, make a pass, shoot the puck and score. Nylander is 20 (and he turned 20 one month ago). I understand why people think he doesn't have "it," and he might not. But it's too early to make that call, and I doubt he's going to get much return in a trade right now. Maybe if he's the add-on that makes a bigger deal happen. But, otherwise, he's more valuable in this organization, because he could still become a useful NHL player.

To put it differently, what is the evidence to support the assertion that he's bad? Because scoring 0.5 pts/gm in the AHL in your 19-year old season doesn't strike me as support for the argument that he's bad. His scoring rate is at least a push - he's not as successful as his brother, but that is extremely irrelevant. Is he on the ice for a disproportionate share of goals against? Is he not generating any shots? Is his line getting dominated while he's on the ice? Why should I think he's a lost cause when, so far, he's shown improvement over the course of his career?

 

[toomuchsauce]

Your method is often unsuccessful. Slot players correctly, let them grow their game at the proper level. That’s what most clubs do with a vast majority of developing players. Regier messes up with both Grigorenko and Girgensons, trying to fill a hole his lack of drafting and development had created.

This is exactly right. Girgensons was planning to play NCAA hockey and, quite frankly, he should have. He's the guy that needed the skill development that NCAA hockey affords with its practice-to-game ratio. Given his reported work ethic, I doubt the extra gym time would have hurt him, either. Instead he tried to focus on surviving in the AHL, and now he's a guy who has NHL-level "compete" (which likely had anyway) without NHL-level hands.

Having said that, he was committed to Vermont, and...there could be reasons why the organization didn't want him to go there. But, I think the overall point about proper player development is valid. Players need to be put in places where they can succeed in developmentally appropriate environments. I think that should be the general rule and it should be broken sparingly, for exceptional talent. Putting both your 18-year old draft picks in pro hockey is...not that. Kudos to Tim Murray for sending his first draft pick back to junior. That appears to have worked out well.

We keep talking about McAvoy (as we should). But McAvoy went back to BU in his D+1 year. He did join the Bruins for the playoffs that year, and he performed well, and he's kept up that trajectory. Do people think that if the Sabres drafted McAvoy 8th in 2016 and immediately put him on *last year's garbage-fire Amerks team* that he'd be regarded quite so highly? Or, more highly? I'm skeptical. It is certainly possible, but I'm skeptical.

Same goes for when the Sabres (probably) draft Tkachuk or (knock on wood) Hughes with the 4th overall pick. Tkachuk is mostly bad when not playing with Casey Mittelstadt in the WJC, but he's got the pedigree to assume he could get better. However, putting him on Mittelstadt's wing in the NHL next year strikes me as a very, very bad plan, for both players. I'd much rather see them take the Sam Reinhart approach and send them back to their college teams and tell them what they'd like to see from a development perspective. Speaking of possibly drafting Hughes with the 4th pick, and trying to properly develop players, I'd guess that Mel Pearson will take Botts calls, ya know? If any NCAA coach is going to give an NHL GM the time of day and benefit of the doubt, it's Mel Pearson for Jason Botterill.

 

[Sabre Dance]

There is no special formula to develop players. Every player is different. Everyone always looks to blame someone other than the player for failing to develop. Reality is if Nylander busts he just wasn't good enough.

 

[Dreakon13]

re: the bolded: Part 1 is almost certainly correct; but Part 2 is, imo, suspect. Sure, the organization needs, in the parlance of NFL draft pundits, "high motor guys." But, the Sabres also equally need guys who know how to get open, receive a pass, make a pass, shoot the puck and score. Nylander is 20 (and he turned 20 one month ago). I understand why people think he doesn't have "it," and he might not. But it's too early to make that call, and I doubt he's going to get much return in a trade right now. Maybe if he's the add-on that makes a bigger deal happen. But, otherwise, he's more valuable in this organization, because he could still become a useful NHL player.

To put it differently, what is the evidence to support the assertion that he's bad? Because scoring 0.5 pts/gm in the AHL in your 19-year old season doesn't strike me as support for the argument that he's bad. His scoring rate is at least a push - he's not as successful as his brother, but that is extremely irrelevant. Is he on the ice for a disproportionate share of goals against? Is he not generating any shots? Is his line getting dominated while he's on the ice? Why should I think he's a lost cause when, so far, he's shown improvement over the course of his career?

I guess the idea isn't that he's already a lost cause. It's to move on and get that "bigger deal" done, before he officially becomes one around the league.

I can't claim to watch the Amerks too closely, or even follow his stats well enough to decide where he should be given his age and the league he's in. Maybe I'm completely talking out of my bum on this one... but the word around has been that Nylander plays way too low key of a game. Getting benched in the third period of Game 2 of the organizations first playoff appearance in years was just icing on the cake. Maybe that's just what he needed to light a fire under him... guess we'll see in Game 3. But my hunch is that he'll just continue doing his thing.

EDIT: I consider him a luxury piece at this point. It'd be nice to have a talented wing prospect that could step into a winning organization, play his game, and not worry about having to be the game breaker or the hardest working guy on the ice. The Sabres aren't that organization though... and that money probably could be spent elsewhere if we find someone willing to buy.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

I think Nylander starts with the sabres next season. I think the sabres are concerned but sooner or later skill will take over.


Thing is, the guy would have been putting up 80 points in the CHL the last two seasons and this would be a completely different thread.

 

[haseoke39]

Thing is, the guy would have been putting up 80 points in the CHL the last two seasons and this would be a completely different thread.

Yeah, we'd be saying, is this kid wasting years playing where none of the immaturity in his game will ever be addressed. Hope he can play pro.

This line gets used for every player who ever struggles at the next level. Hell, if we sent Larsson to the CHL I'm sure he'd be leading them in scoring, maybe that would mean he's great.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

Yeah, we'd be saying, is this kid wasting years playing where none of the immaturity in his game will ever be addressed. Hope he can play pro.

This line gets used for every player who ever struggles at the next level. Hell, if we sent Larsson to the CHL I'm sure he'd be leading them in scoring, maybe that would mean he's great.

Actually no, not correct. No CHL player can even play in the AHL at Nylander's age. So no, it is not used as a line for every player who struggles because Nylander is a unique situation.

 

[OkimLom]

There is no special formula to develop players. Every player is different. Everyone always looks to blame someone other than the player for failing to develop. Reality is if Nylander busts he just wasn't good enough.

The reality of the situation is that it's not just ONE person to blame for failures.

 

[old kummelweck]

There is no special formula to develop players. Every player is different. Everyone always looks to blame someone other than the player for failing to develop. Reality is if Nylander busts he just wasn't good enough.

The good teams know how to develop their draft talent. This has been an organizational weakness for years and now we see the product on the ice. People just assume that the good teams are good because they hit pay dirt in the draft. There is more to it than the ability to judge a prospect leading to the draft. I see a lot of 'oh we missed out on X player and took this bust instead'. I don't buy it 100%. Yes, there are busts. But busting is not 100% in a players control.