Speculation: Acquiring A Goalie

[Jtown]

I never liked how Mason was just cast aside after one mediocre year, when he was really good for us. Failing to extend him hurt us big time. He would have been the perfect stop gap while we wait for Hart. Maybe there really is something to all the off ice stuff that has followed him recently.

 

[Rebels57]

If they wanted a goalie then they missed the boat for now I think

Grubaeur was pretty much "the" option this summer.

But honestly I don't think it matters too much who is in net if the PK continues to be so bad... all the goalies have fine EV stats but PK drags them down.

Over his 4 seasons in Philly Mason was one of the best 5v5 goalies in the league... yet once PK was thrown in was a marginally above average starter.

2013-17 5v5 sv leaders:

Price: .938 sv%
Holtby: .932 sv%
Mason: .931 sv%
Anderson: .931 sv%
Crawford: .931 sv%
Rask: .930 sv%
Bobrovsky: .930 sv%
Gibson: .929 sv%
Dubnyk: .929 sv%
Lundqvist: .928 sv%

Our PK absolutely does suck royally but some of the issue on the PK is the goalies though. Thats where goalies will face the greatest number of HDSC and second-chance opportunties. The top goalies are more likely to bail out the PK than the lower-tier goalies.

The Brian Boyle goal last weekend is a good example. Any top tier goalie makes that save. He wasnt square and was too deep, which is often the issue with Elliott.

I do think 2014-2016 Mason was a top 10-15 goalie though.

 

[Jtown]

If that's how an agent thinks without running the numbers, he's not qualified for the job. It may make sense, it may not. 60 > 30 is not how this works.

If he gets his ask of something like 6/10, he takes it unquestioned. If his offers are more like 6/48 or 5/50, then a 2 year basically max is at least worth considering. There's value in getting your money right away, especially in this tinderbox of a labor situation. I'm sure this would require a large portion of the money being paid in a bonus as well to even get his agent on the line.

Of course none of this matters because no GM is going to blow up the leaguewide salary structure before a labor negotiation.

Of all the sports, hockey agents are the most conservative. It would be a unprecedented deal. It also would be a terrible decision to make for a highly volatile position like Goalie. Bob could easily struggle to duplicate his success with a less defensive oriented team , suffer statistically and be left out in the cold during FA. He signs here for 2 years at 15 million per he is guaranteed to not see any more years in Philly even if he dominates. So no matter what he is going to have to pack up and move on in 2 more years , which again is not an ideal outcome. A guy like Maroon takingg less money make sense as a gamble. But established talent never has to take that gamble nor should they ever be advised to do so.

 

[BernieParent]

Since coming back from the grave, Corey Crawford is rocking a 1.69 goals-against-average and .946 save percentage. The Hawks currently are paying $9 million to him and Ward. It would be a big risk, considering how much time Crawford missed and that it is uncertain whether his health issues are resolved, but a healthy Crawford @ $6 million for this year and next would be ideal with a capital I. This would have to be predicated on the Hawks accepting a rebuild. Plus, Crawford is only 33.

 

[Tripod]

There are not many teams that have the need, and the cap space, to even go after Bob.

NYI can/do. Buffalo maybe, but they signed Hutton for 3 years. No one really else.

Calgary needs a goalie but also have to re-sign Tkachuk so they would need to move out money.

 

[gertbfrobe16]

i'm guessing that if la keeps tanking hextall might go after quick

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Of all the sports, hockey agents are the most conservative. It would be a unprecedented deal. It also would be a terrible decision to make for a highly volatile position like Goalie. Bob could easily struggle to duplicate his success with a less defensive oriented team , suffer statistically and be left out in the cold during FA. He signs here for 2 years at 15 million per he is guaranteed to not see any more years in Philly even if he dominates. So no matter what he is going to have to pack up and move on in 2 more years , which again is not an ideal outcome. A guy like Maroon takingg less money make sense as a gamble. But established talent never has to take that gamble nor should they ever be advised to do so.

Established talent undeniably does not have to do so, yet we've seen multiple premium players do that in recent years. Bobrovsky would be the earliest in his career, but he's still going to be a 31 year old Goalie by the time his deal starts. That's not a completely different animal.

The problem with the guaranteed nature of NHL deals right now is the labor agreement. You're not going to be sure you see your money by definition. We don't have enough information to know if 2019, 2020, or 2021 is going to be the flashpoint, but I'm sure Theofanous is significantly more in touch than we can be. The built-in safeguards against a labor stoppage then become every bit as important as the dollar value.

 

[BernieParent]

i'm guessing that if la keeps tanking hextall might go after quick

4 more years at $7.6 million is a lot of contract.

 

[Appleyard]

Our PK absolutely does suck royally but some of the issue on the PK is the goalies though. Thats where goalies will face the greatest number of HDSC and second-chance opportunties. The top goalies are more likely to bail out the PK than the lower-tier goalies.

The Brian Boyle goal last weekend is a good example. Any top tier goalie makes that save. He wasnt square and was too deep, which is often the issue with Elliott.

I do think 2014-2016 Mason was a top 10-15 goalie though.

However, neither Elliott or Neuvirth were poor PK goalies before coming to the Flyers... their PK sv% (and Mason's too) all got worse as Flyers than before they were here... even though their 5v5 was ~similar (or better.)

 

[Jtown]

Established talent undeniably does not have to do so, yet we've seen multiple premium players do that in recent years. Bobrovsky would be the earliest in his career, but he's still going to be a 31 year old Goalie by the time his deal starts. That's not a completely different animal.

The problem with the guaranteed nature of NHL deals right now is the labor agreement. You're not going to be sure you see your money by definition. We don't have enough information to know if 2019, 2020, or 2021 is going to be the flashpoint, but I'm sure Theofanous is significantly more in touch than we can be. The built-in safeguards against a labor stoppage then become every bit as important as the dollar value.

what premium players have gambled on their contracts recently? The lockout risk can be mitigated completely by the contract being paid out by bonus. That should be no concern.

 

[gertbfrobe16]

4 more years at $7.6 million is a lot of contract.

it is but hextall will pay it if he thinks it will save his job.

 

[Don Nachbaur 26]

it is but hextall will pay it if he thinks it will save his job.

According to capfriendly, the cap hit is 5.8 through 2022-2023. He'd be 36 at the end of the contract.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Maroon has a young son with a lady he doesn’t have a relationship with anymore & obviously doesn’t have custody. The kid lives in his hometown in St. Louis. It’s why he took less to be closer to his kid there.

Maybe not that specific but I’d have to imagine most discount type deals are because of some type of family dynamic.

Edit: Maybe not in Friedman’s 31 thoughts today he mentioned he didn’t have much offers to begin with.

 

[Curufinwe]

Since coming back from the grave, Corey Crawford is rocking a 1.69 goals-against-average and .946 save percentage. The Hawks currently are paying $9 million to him and Ward. It would be a big risk, considering how much time Crawford missed and that it is uncertain whether his health issues are resolved, but a healthy Crawford @ $6 million for this year and next would be ideal with a capital I. This would have to be predicated on the Hawks accepting a rebuild. Plus, Crawford is only 33.

I don't think Chicago can move their starter when they are trying to win another Cup with their core. Ward is an overpaid backup.

 

[Curufinwe]

i'm guessing that if la keeps tanking hextall might go after quick

That doesn't seem like a move either side would make. LA have to keep trying to win while they have Kopitar, Doughty, Carter and Kovalchuk.

 

[Magua]

 

[renberg]

Its money, term and assets that you're giving up to obtain a goalie from another team. Bobrovsky is a good goalie but its going to cost all three of these things to obtain him. Are you willing to go 5X$7M or more plus some of the young assets to get him or another goalie that can play close to the level that he does? IMO, that's too much. As we saw last year, in season is the worst time to try to get a goalie; remember Mrazak.

 

[BernieParent]

According to capfriendly, the cap hit is 5.8 through 2022-2023. He'd be 36 at the end of the contract.

Thanks for this correction. I wouldn't dislike Quick, though I am worried about his durability... says the person who advocated Crawford a few posts before . He would definitely be a huge upgrade to Flotsam and Jetsam and has shown the great ability to battle when his D has left him out to dry. The duel would then be on for Hart to supplant Quick over the next 4 years. We could call the tandem Tachycardia.

 

[BernieParent]

I don't think Chicago can move their starter when they are trying to win another Cup with their core. Ward is an overpaid backup.

Exactly why I included the caveat that they come to their senses and start rebuilding.

 

[deadhead]

However, neither Elliott or Neuvirth were poor PK goalies before coming to the Flyers... their PK sv% (and Mason's too) all got worse as Flyers than before they were here... even though their 5v5 was ~similar (or better.)

Neuvirth had a fine PK S% his first year, above his career average, then it cratered the last two years.
Elliott cratered the last two years.
But what's the difference in the PK from three years ago v the last two?

 

[deadhead]

Its money, term and assets that you're giving up to obtain a goalie from another team. Bobrovsky is a good goalie but its going to cost all three of these things to obtain him. Are you willing to go 5X$7M or more plus some of the young assets to get him or another goalie that can play close to the level that he does? IMO, that's too much. As we saw last year, in season is the worst time to try to get a goalie; remember Mrazak.

Bob isn't worth it, the goal is to win the Cup, not the regular season championship. He's got a horrid playoff record.
Pass.

 

[bauer]

Varlamov would be perfect for this team. pending UFA. Avs likely won't be able to re-sign him, especially since they want Grubauer to take over next year.

next year Varly can be the starter with Hart as backup, then Hart can push to start in 2020-21.

 

[Appleyard]

Neuvirth had a fine PK S% his first year, above his career average, then it cratered the last two years.
Elliott cratered the last two years.
But what's the difference in the PK from three years ago v the last two?

Well, considering that all the underlying stats were pretty much the same or worse as the other years... (that year was actually the one under Lappy with the most CA/60 on the PK for example)

might have something to do with luck.

 

[Prongo]

Go get Bob back.

Wayne Simmonds for BoB

 

[1865]

4 more years at $7.6 million is a lot of contract.

Works pretty well for us though. The time frame is a year longer than ideal, but not a problem. The cap hit is no issue.