It depends on what other teams do at the deadline but as things stand I'd put a healthy Rangers team and the Canadiens ahead of them in the East. Maybe the Islanders, Red Wings & Lightning. They're close. Maybe that gap narrows quite a bit post-deadline but other teams will add, too, so maybe that list grows.
The Caps use their checking line so heavily and with such declining return and pace that I can't figure them as serious contenders. Does that usage stand to change even in the event of adding a decent piece for Kuznetsov's line? Are they not bound to play toss up sorts of games regardless due to style/mentality and what would still likely be a weak possession second scoring line? It's more about peak performance level and being able to win outside of the PP. They can win low-scoring games to a greater extent now but the forwards aren't smart or cohesive enough. It's hard to expect one single forward coming in and smoothing that over. It couldn't hurt, of course, and I'm not against upgrading the roster but I don't think they're at an all-in point yet.
Maybe Beagle & Fehr play like their hair is on fire come playoff time but there are too many low impact players up front that probably need to be upgraded. If they can move Chimera and Laich maybe that upgrades the checking line and depth enough to be a bigger danger. As-is the mix for me is still not really close. Ward is slowing down, Brouwer & Laich are mainly passengers and Johansson isn't going to stick his nose in there. Burakovsky gets shuffled from the press box to the top line so overall it's a really mixed bag predicated on system play and team defense primarily. As much as C/D/G are essential so are the habits of a champion and they're still not there yet. They're scrappy, they're tougher but the hockey sense is still not there yet IMO.
