Anybody remember how MJ scored those 17 ES goals last year?
7 came in the first 15 games, with Bura playing unreal, and NHL teams still getting their **** together on defense.
After that? 10 ES goals in last 67 games of the year. A much more representative sample, IMO. That's a rate of 12 ES goals / 82, playing top-6 minutes with the likes of Backstrom and Ovi.
It's completely unimpressive, IMO. What remains is always the same -- potential. Do you believe MJ can snipe like he did in the early stretch with Bura -- but over the meaty part of the season? I dunno, perhaps, but it is unpleasant to use up 4M+ in cap space as an advance for what might be a remote possibilty.
I don't know if JVR is a big upgrade, but I suspect looking at dry reg. season numbers is not gonna lead anywhere. Has anybody actually watched JVR for a significant time, and has an idea about whether he is a legit sniper? I'll admit I never watched him closely, and I don't remember him ever standing out against the Caps. But then it wouldn't surprise me if any player didn't stand out playing on a crazy franchise like the Leafs.
Anyway, I think MJ is quite underwhelming as a 4M player, and if a relatively inexpensive swap was available, there's probably a lot of players who I'd prefer -- those that excel in at least one aspect of the game. In fact, probably paying Fehr ~2.5M + getting extra 1.5M in cap space could easily make the team better, at least near-term.
But if the Caps are gonna give up a high-quality prospect, certainly they need to get back a very good player that can be expected to have a significant impact. Is JVR good enough to give up a Bowey or a Vrana? Something tells me that it would be quite a gamble.