Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap Part LXII (Arbitration MADNESS)

[hockeykicker]

Believe this has been reported by several places, but Chris Brown's 2-year deal pays him $575k at NHL, $125k AHL in '15-16, $175k in '16-17.

Per Prewitt

In case anyone cares

 

[BobRouse]

Again, other players had the same level of micromanagement affecting their games and still produced. Other players went through as many coaches. Why was Mojo uniquely affected despite more consistent opportunity for secondary scoring at ES than anyone els?

I'd say Holtby was affected even worse than MJ wouldn't you?

Mojo's 8 goal year was an abberation. See the shooting pctg:

http://espn.go.com/nhl/player/stats/_/id/5714/marcus-johansson

He just had a very unlucky year and changing sticks may have had something to do with that. That effects players differently.

The 2 years prior he shot 15%. Last year it was close to 15%.

The year in question it was cut in half to 7.5%. Again just an outlier.

 

[artilector]

Anybody remember how MJ scored those 17 ES goals last year?

7 came in the first 15 games, with Bura playing unreal, and NHL teams still getting their **** together on defense.

After that? 10 ES goals in last 67 games of the year. A much more representative sample, IMO. That's a rate of 12 ES goals / 82, playing top-6 minutes with the likes of Backstrom and Ovi.

It's completely unimpressive, IMO. What remains is always the same -- potential. Do you believe MJ can snipe like he did in the early stretch with Bura -- but over the meaty part of the season? I dunno, perhaps, but it is unpleasant to use up 4M+ in cap space as an advance for what might be a remote possibilty.

I don't know if JVR is a big upgrade, but I suspect looking at dry reg. season numbers is not gonna lead anywhere. Has anybody actually watched JVR for a significant time, and has an idea about whether he is a legit sniper? I'll admit I never watched him closely, and I don't remember him ever standing out against the Caps. But then it wouldn't surprise me if any player didn't stand out playing on a crazy franchise like the Leafs.

Anyway, I think MJ is quite underwhelming as a 4M player, and if a relatively inexpensive swap was available, there's probably a lot of players who I'd prefer -- those that excel in at least one aspect of the game. In fact, probably paying Fehr ~2.5M + getting extra 1.5M in cap space could easily make the team better, at least near-term.

But if the Caps are gonna give up a high-quality prospect, certainly they need to get back a very good player that can be expected to have a significant impact. Is JVR good enough to give up a Bowey or a Vrana? Something tells me that it would be quite a gamble.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

I'd say Holtby was affected even worse than MJ wouldn't you?

Mojo's 8 goal year was an abberation. See the shooting pctg:

http://espn.go.com/nhl/player/stats/_/id/5714/marcus-johansson

He just had a very unlucky year and changing sticks may have had something to do with that. That effects players differently.

The 2 years prior he shot 15%. Last year it was close to 15%.

The year in question it was cut in half to 7.5%. Again just an outlier.

Holtby's Oates years he still put up a very good save %. Johansson's ESG were at the level where you get demoted to the AHL.

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

If that's the limitation then is there a comparable measurement for the players you mentioned, pre and post-Oates?

Several other players had decent goalscoring years last year, including ESG. Why was Mojo uniquely affected, and why did he only score 8 total goals and 2 ESG all year despite PP1 and top line time? The previous year he had 3 ESG in 34 games. What exactly about Oates caused him and him specifically to score so few goals while others who were also affected by Oates still put pucks in the net?

Mojo had 13 ESG under BB/Hunter and 10 under BB. Eric Fehr had 17ESG last year under Trotz and 13 under Oates the year before. Is Fehr then worth 3.5-4M? Why did he have 6 times as many ESG as Mojo with Oates and the same # with Trotz?

It wasn't as pronounced, but Backstrom's ES scoring dipped during the Oates years. Those were his two lowest scoring seasons on a per game basis since he was 21. Is it really so ridiculous to think that Oates altered the games of the team's two best playmakers to be more like his? We know he changed Johansson's stick, that probably wasn't the only change he made.

If Fehr had the health record of Johansson, you can be damn sure some team would've given him 3.5-4M, and I think it's obvious that Oates didn't make the same changes with every player. The fact that he improved Fehr doesn't mean anything with regards to Johansson.

 

[BobRouse]

Anybody remember how MJ scored those 17 ES goals last year?

7 came in the first 15 games, with Bura playing unreal, and NHL teams still getting their **** together on defense.

After that? 10 ES goals in last 67 games of the year. A much more representative sample, IMO. That's a rate of 12 ES goals / 82, playing top-6 minutes with the likes of Backstrom and Ovi.

.

This is bull.

You could conveniently go through and take out a chunk of 15 games from any player that if cherry picked correctly could make them look alot better or worse.

Through the course of the season there are ups and downs.

Why not take out the stretch of 20 games where he (or pretty much any other forward not named Ovechkin) simply didn't score?? If you did that his scoring would look even more impressive!

Goes both ways.

Holtby's Oates years he still put up a very good save %. Johansson's ESG were at the level where you get demoted to the AHL.

Holtby's sv pctg was a 1/2% lower than his career lowest. That significant.

Its the same year Ovie was a -35.

Everyone pretty much had a bad year outside of the line with Ward/Fehr/Chimera.

Seriously underestimating just how bad Oates was.

 

[Turd Ferguson]

Anybody remember how MJ scored those 17 ES goals last year?

7 came in the first 15 games, with Bura playing unreal, and NHL teams still getting their **** together on defense.

After that? 10 ES goals in last 67 games of the year. A much more representative sample, IMO. That's a rate of 12 ES goals / 82, playing top-6 minutes with the likes of Backstrom and Ovi.

It's completely unimpressive, IMO. What remains is always the same -- potential. Do you believe MJ can snipe like he did in the early stretch with Bura -- but over the meaty part of the season? I dunno, perhaps, but it is unpleasant to use up 4M+ in cap space as an advance for what might be a remote possibilty.

I don't know if JVR is a big upgrade, but I suspect looking at dry reg. season numbers is not gonna lead anywhere. Has anybody actually watched JVR for a significant time, and has an idea about whether he is a legit sniper? I'll admit I never watched him closely, and I don't remember him ever standing out against the Caps. But then it wouldn't surprise me if any player didn't stand out playing on a crazy franchise like the Leafs.

Anyway, I think MJ is quite underwhelming as a 4M player, and if a relatively inexpensive swap was available, there's probably a lot of players who I'd prefer -- those that excel in at least one aspect of the game. In fact, probably paying Fehr ~2.5M + getting extra 1.5M in cap space could easily make the team better, at least near-term.

But if the Caps are gonna give up a high-quality prospect, certainly they need to get back a very good player that can be expected to have a significant impact. Is JVR good enough to give up a Bowey or a Vrana? Something tells me that it would be quite a gamble.

This. Not huge on JVR and our top 6 is filled at this point, but the kid can go on a tear when he wants to. He's powerful and can make a goal out of nothing when the desire is there. I think he is good, but unless it was a steal of a deal he isn't coming here.

 

[g00n]

It wasn't as pronounced, but Backstrom's ES scoring dipped during the Oates years. Those were his two lowest scoring seasons on a per game basis since he was 21. Is it really so ridiculous to think that Oates altered the games of the team's two best playmakers to be more like his? We know he changed Johansson's stick, that probably wasn't the only change he made.

If Fehr had the health record of Johansson, you can be damn sure some team would've given him 3.5-4M, and I think it's obvious that Oates didn't make the same changes with every player. The fact that he improved Fehr doesn't mean anything with regards to Johansson.

The last few years NB had 13 ESG under BB, 11 ESG under BB/Hunter, then about half that in the lockout year, and back to 11 under Oates in the full year, and 15 this year. So no big changes, and nowhere near as significant as with MJ. NB also came off of significant injury before the drop.

Injury can't be the only difference between Mojo and Fehr. Fehr gives you better than 50% in the faceoff circle, great forechecking, work on the boards, and more big GWG in the regular season. He still played 73 and 75 games the last 2 years. He and Mojo were both 1st round picks and both underperform in the playoffs. The big difference is in age and perceived potential.

Point being, we can't just cherrypick a stat from Mojo's stat line last year and say he's worth X++ because of it.

 

[hockeykicker]

I just remembered that holtby arbitration is in three days and 6 days before johannson. So if holtby gets more then expected, that could cause a problem with johannson

 

[BobRouse]

The last few years NB had 13 ESG under BB, 11 ESG under BB/Hunter, then about half that in the lockout year, and back to 11 under Oates in the full year, and 15 this year. So no big changes, and nowhere near as significant as with MJ. NB also came off of significant injury before the drop.

Injury can't be the only difference between Mojo and Fehr. Fehr gives you better than 50% in the faceoff circle, great forechecking, work on the boards, and more big GWG in the regular season. He still played 73 and 75 games the last 2 years. He and Mojo were both 1st round picks and both underperform in the playoffs. The big difference is in age and perceived potential.

MJ has alot more speed and 10x the vision of Fehr. Fehr is the better forechecker, has become the better defender and always been a better goal scorer.

MJ is the better playmaker, faster and much much healthier.

 

[g00n]

MJ has alot more speed and 10x the vision of Fehr. Fehr is the better forechecker, has become the better defender and always been a better goal scorer.

MJ is the better playmaker, faster and much much healthier.

Several million dollars better? What makes him elite enough to be 4th in ES/TOI/G among forwards all these years?

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Holtby's sv pctg was a 1/2% lower than his career lowest. That significant.

Its the same year Ovie was a -35.

Everyone pretty much had a bad year outside of the line with Ward/Fehr/Chimera.

Seriously underestimating just how bad Oates was.

And Johansson's ESGs in 2014 were about 15% of his career average i.e. a DECLINE of 85%. He was by far the biggest decliner under Oates.

edit: Holtby's sv% under Oates .917
Holtby's sv% career .921

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

Anybody remember how MJ scored those 17 ES goals last year?

7 came in the first 15 games, with Bura playing unreal, and NHL teams still getting their **** together on defense.

After that? 10 ES goals in last 67 games of the year. A much more representative sample, IMO. That's a rate of 12 ES goals / 82, playing top-6 minutes with the likes of Backstrom and Ovi.

It's completely unimpressive, IMO. What remains is always the same -- potential. Do you believe MJ can snipe like he did in the early stretch with Bura -- but over the meaty part of the season? I dunno, perhaps, but it is unpleasant to use up 4M+ in cap space as an advance for what might be a remote possibilty.

I don't know if JVR is a big upgrade, but I suspect looking at dry reg. season numbers is not gonna lead anywhere. Has anybody actually watched JVR for a significant time, and has an idea about whether he is a legit sniper? I'll admit I never watched him closely, and I don't remember him ever standing out against the Caps. But then it wouldn't surprise me if any player didn't stand out playing on a crazy franchise like the Leafs.

Anyway, I think MJ is quite underwhelming as a 4M player, and if a relatively inexpensive swap was available, there's probably a lot of players who I'd prefer -- those that excel in at least one aspect of the game. In fact, probably paying Fehr ~2.5M + getting extra 1.5M in cap space could easily make the team better, at least near-term.

But if the Caps are gonna give up a high-quality prospect, certainly they need to get back a very good player that can be expected to have a significant impact. Is JVR good enough to give up a Bowey or a Vrana? Something tells me that it would be quite a gamble.

Backstrom scored 7 goals over an 8 game stretch in December, and 11 over the other 74. That's a rate of 12 goals per year. It's completely unimpressive, IMO.

Fehr scored 7 of his goals over a 12 game stretch, also in December, and 12 over the other 63. That's a rate of 16 goals per year. Also completely unimpressive.

Ward scored 7 of his goals over a 12 game stretch early in the season, and 12 over the other 70. That's a rate of 14 goals per year. Yup, completely unimpressive.

Note those are at all strengths, not just ES. All but the best scorers get their goals in bunches.

Oh, and I'll throw another in.

JVR scored 6 of his ES goals over the first 15 games of the season, 11 over the other 67. That's a rate of 13 ES goals per year. You know the drill.

 

[BobRouse]

Several million dollars better? What makes him elite enough to be 4th in ES/TOI/G among forwards all these years?

Well MJ made 2 million and Fehr like 1.5 or 2 million last year right?

If MJ gets 4 million in arbitration and Fehr is willing to sign for $1 million then your point is fine. But chances are Fehr is looking for much closer to $4 mil and probably a factor in why he is unsigned (along with injury status)

Boudrea, Hunter, Oates and Trotz...varying coaches with different reputations and levels of success....one thing in common? They all liked MJ.

GMGM and GMBM clearly like him too. He's a good player and just has a bad rap here on HF thats all.

And Johansson's ESGs in 2014 were about 15% of his career average i.e. a DECLINE of 85%. He was by far the biggest decliner under Oates.

edit: Holtby's sv% under Oates .917
Holtby's sv% career .921

Your point is taken. MJ was terrible under Oates. He felt the biggest impact under Oates.

Oates is a bad coach. All players were bad under him for the most part. Some worse than others.

RE: Holtby

His career sv pctg was lowered due to Oates. His sv pctg with Oates and without is whats more important and that gap will be greater than .004.

 

[Roughing]

What are Mojo's point totals this season if he spends time flipping between 2LW, 3LW, and PP2? What would Vrana do with that same opportunity?

 

[g00n]

Well MJ made 2 million and Fehr like 1.5 or 2 million last year right?

If MJ gets 4 million in arbitration and Fehr is willing to sign for $1 million then your point is fine. But chances are Fehr is looking for much closer to $4 mil and probably a factor in why he is unsigned (along with injury status)

Boudrea, Hunter, Oates and Trotz...varying coaches with different reputations and levels of success....one thing in common? They all liked MJ.

GMGM and GMBM clearly like him too. He's a good player and just has a bad rap here on HF thats all.

Yes I'm obviously talking about upcoming dollars invested in these players, not what they made last year.

Regarding playmaking, he can sometimes thread a nice pass. I will give him that. But it's too infrequent, imo. I don't see him as someone who makes his linemates better.

As for speed, I think I've seen Fehr spreading things out as much or more than Mojo. I can't recall the last time I saw Mojo flying down the ice on a breakaway that wasn't the result of cherrypicking or a great pass like the one from Niskanen last year that caught the other team on a line change. He always seems to get rubbed out near the blueline when he attempts to get by defenders. I never see him shake anyone or come out of scrums with the puck like our other forwards not named Bura.

It's not just an HF bias. See the Japers (?) link that was posted in the past few days where they debate MJ's value.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Your point is taken. MJ was terrible under Oates. He felt the biggest impact under Oates.

Oates is a bad coach. All players were bad under him for the most part. Some worse than others.

RE: Holtby

His career sv pctg was lowered due to Oates. His sv pctg with Oates and without is whats more important and that gap will be greater than .004.

Holtby's career sans Oates: .924
Holtby's Oates years: .917

A bit more pronounced, but I would also argue that the Korn affect is skewing that.

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

The last few years NB had 13 ESG under BB, 11 ESG under BB/Hunter, then about half that in the lockout year, and back to 11 under Oates in the full year, and 15 this year. So no big changes, and nowhere near as significant as with MJ. NB also came off of significant injury before the drop.

Injury can't be the only difference between Mojo and Fehr. Fehr gives you better than 50% in the faceoff circle, great forechecking, work on the boards, and more big GWG in the regular season. He still played 73 and 75 games the last 2 years. He and Mojo were both 1st round picks and both underperform in the playoffs. The big difference is in age and perceived potential.

Point being, we can't just cherrypick a stat from Mojo's stat line last year and say he's worth X++ because of it.

You left out that those 11 goals came in 42 games. If you prorate them to 82 game seasons, this is what you get:

10-11: 14 (this was the year he was playing through a wrist injury in the 2nd half)
11-12: 21
12-13: 9
13-14: 11
14-15: 15

It's not as precipitous as Johansson's but you'd expect a much better player to adjust better.

As BR said, Mojo's got the edge in speed, playmaking, and health, not to mention youth, which is probably the biggest thing. A 30 year old player with an extensive injury history is worth a hell of a lot less than a comparable, healthy 24 year old.

Several million dollars better? What makes him elite enough to be 4th in ES/TOI/G among forwards all these years?

McPhee's ****** roster management. It's not Johansson's fault they didn't have anyone better.

 

[artilector]

Backstrom scored 7 goals over an 8 game stretch in December, and 11 over the other 74. That's a rate of 12 goals per year. It's completely unimpressive, IMO.

Fehr scored 7 of his goals over a 12 game stretch, also in December, and 12 over the other 63. That's a rate of 16 goals per year. Also completely unimpressive.

Ward scored 7 of his goals over a 12 game stretch early in the season, and 12 over the other 70. That's a rate of 14 goals per year. Yup, completely unimpressive.

Not those are at all strengths, not just ES. All but the best scorers get their goals in bunches.

Oh, and I'll throw another in.

JVR scored 6 of his ES goals over the first 15 games of the season, 11 over the other 67. That's a rate of 13 ES goals per year. You know the drill.

Heh, you're helping me here. I would easily put Backstrom & Fehr in the MJ league as far as unimpressive/inconsistent scorers (of course, Backstrom is an elite passer, and Fehr has been a very good "heavy" 3C in long stretches). Ward is same in regular season, but transforms incredibly in playoffs. And as for JVR, I never said I know him to be a great scorer, and this could very well be a symptom that he is not, in which case he's not a target worthy of giving up significant assets.

So yeah, I agree that people who tend to go on long stretches of pathetic/unimpressive scoring tend to be unimpressive scorers. Thank you!

edit: and there's still the question of actual talent. You can look at regular season stats and say that Semin is utter **** based on last year... but it doesn't mean much to me, because I know what the guy is capable of, scoring-wise, if he's healthy. That's why I keep asking if people have an actual opinion of JVR's sniping ability other than quoting last year's reg. season stats. Is he more like Semin, a guy that could be reasonably expected to score consistently if healthy/in a good environment, or is he the scoring version of (any number of players), who benefited from ice-time and lack of defensive responsibility in Toronto but could easily be utterly forgettable playing less minutes on a structured team?

I mean seriously, sometimes regular season numbers can't tell you very much about a player.

 

[BobRouse]

Yes I'm obviously talking about upcoming dollars invested in these players, not what they made last year.

Regarding playmaking, he can sometimes thread a nice pass. I will give him that. But it's too infrequent, imo. I don't see him as someone who makes his linemates better.

As for speed, I think I've seen Fehr spreading things out as much or more than Mojo. I can't recall the last time I saw Mojo flying down the ice on a breakaway that wasn't the result of cherrypicking or a great pass like the one from Niskanen last year that caught the other team on a line change. He always seems to get rubbed out near the blueline when he attempts to get by defenders. I never see him shake anyone or come out of scrums with the puck like our other forwards not named Bura.

It's not just an HF bias. See the Japers (?) link that was posted in the past few days where they debate MJ's value.

Oh I think it is:

http://www.japersrink.com/2015/7/13/8927677/what-is-marcus-johansson-worth-capitalsTh

Johansson has demonstrated that he's a top-six forward and deserves to be paid like one as he continues to develop. Our pals Neil Greenberg (here) and Pat Holden (here) provided their thoughts on what Johansson was worth on his next deal, and I tend to agree with their estimates - Marcus Johansson is worth around $4 million in today's NHL, and maybe a tick higher if we're talking about buying UFA years with this deal. There are 116 forwards - an average of nearly four per team - who will have a cap hit of $4 million or more next season, and Johansson arguably should be number 117.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2015/07/06/capitals-marcus-johansson-deserves-a-big-raise/?postshare=491436193529338

If Johansson is asking for a salary somehwere between $3.5 and $4 million per year, he deserves to get it.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Frankly I don't see what Johansson at $3.5 to $4 offers over Tlusty at $1.5 or so. There's familiarity, but is that really worth that much?

 

[Turd Ferguson]

So who can see mojo with the team 5 years from now? I certainly don't.

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

What are Mojo's point totals this season if he spends time flipping between 2LW, 3LW, and PP2? What would Vrana do with that same opportunity?

Johansson was a lot more productive last year one the 2nd line than the 1st line. I don't think being away from Ovie and Backstrom hurts him.

Holtby's career sans Oates: .924
Holtby's Oates years: .917

A bit more pronounced, but I would also argue that the Korn affect is skewing that.

So you're counting the lockout year as part of the Oates stats? I'm pretty sure the changes to his game didn't start until the second year. That was when Dave Prior got forced out.

Heh, you're helping me here. I would easily put Backstrom & Fehr in the MJ league as far as unimpressive/inconsistent scorers. Ward is same in regular season, but transforms incredibly in playoffs. And as for JVR, I never said I know him to be a great scorer, and this could very well be a symptom that he is not, in which case he's not a target worthy of giving up significant assets.

So yeah, I agree that people who tend to go on long stretches of pathetic/unimpressive scoring tend to be unimpressive scorers. Thank you!

You're setting the bar for an impressive scorer really damn high then. If you're dismissing two guys who tied for 48th in the league in ESG last year as unimpressive scorers, then adding someone you'd consider impressive is going to be seriously expensive.

 

[g00n]

You left out that those 11 goals came in 42 games. If you prorate them to 82 game seasons, this is what you get:

10-11: 14 (this was the year he was playing through a wrist injury in the 2nd half)
11-12: 21
12-13: 9
13-14: 11
14-15: 15

It's not as precipitous as Johansson's but you'd expect a much better player to adjust better.

As BR said, Mojo's got the edge in speed, playmaking, and health, not to mention youth, which is probably the biggest thing. A 30 year old player with an extensive injury history is worth a hell of a lot less than a comparable, healthy 24 year old.



McPhee's ****** roster management. It's not Johansson's fault they didn't have anyone better.

I said he was affected by injury. It's just as likely a factor in the following years as Oates, when his numbers reverted to what they were before.

You don't think Fehr's faceoff skills, forechecking, work on the boards and willingness to mix it up set him apart from Mojo or carry any value? Especially on a Trotz team that needs a 3c?

Fehr at 2-2.5M and Mojo at 3M for 2 years seems fair to me.

 

[BobRouse]

Frankly I don't see what Johansson at $3.5 to $4 offers over Tlusty at $1.5 or so. There's familiarity, but is that really worth that much?

Depends what you think of Tlusty. Personally I don't like him at all. He had a very good year in the strike shortened season but nothing special outside of that. He's not very fast, he softer than MJ and lacks his vision.

Holtby's career sans Oates: .924
Holtby's Oates years: .917

A bit more pronounced, but I would also argue that the Korn affect is skewing that.

Holtby's body of work was small pre-Oates but was VERY impressive. .934 in 14 games in 10-11, .921 in 7 GP in 11-12 and .935 in 14 playoff games that year. (35 total games with a .9318 combined sv pctg)

Holtby was very good pre-Oates and very good post-Oates.