Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap Part LXII (Arbitration MADNESS)

[Langway]

I could maybe tolerate streakiness from Johansson if he were still good at getting shots on or PKing. He did put up a career high of 138 shots last year but that's still on the weak end for a top six forward. Sure, he has speed and might put up the same numbers in the regular season despite weaker linemates because he arguably fares worse 5-on-5 when with better offensive players due to poor deferential decision-making.

If he's going to transition into more of a third-line energy type and PKer he's going to have to play with more tenacity and consistency. He has to use his speed to get interior or he'll continue to not do much in the playoffs and generally not be all that hard to play against. With Burakovsky developing and Vrana coming along it's up to him to carve out some essential niche before time runs out. It makes sense to put it on the player and keep his cap hit as low as possible. I don't think the Caps will fare tremendously well in arb if they're seeking ~$3M and Johansson more like $4M but if they're destined to go year-to-year it might not matter much.

 

[ChibiPooky]

WRT Holtby, I haven't looked at the numbers, but there is a known effect that facing more shots tends to elevate save percentage. I'd suspect his numbers under Oates are affected by this (but could be completely wrong).

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Depends what you think of Tlusty. Personally I don't like him at all. He had a very good year in the strike shortened season but nothing special outside of that. He's not very fast, he softer than MJ and lacks his vision.

I'm no Tlusty fan either. They're both soft garbage but Tlusty is a lot cheaper.

 

[BobRouse]

I'm no Tlusty fan either. They're both soft garbage but Tlusty is a lot cheaper.

MJ showed an uptick in his physical play last year for certain and he's a better playmaker, faster, younger (with some upside left) and simply flat out a better player than Tlusty.

MJ is worth around $4 million.

I do agree that for us it may not make sense especially considering we need a 3C in the worst way. How the caps are constructed it maybe more efficient to get that 3C instead of having a $4 million MJ.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Several million dollars better? What makes him elite enough to be 4th in ES/TOI/G among forwards all these years?

Maybe a better question for multiple coaching groups who keep giving him ice time despite the fact that he's horrible (according to some).

He's doing something right....or so it appears.

 

[artilector]

You're setting the bar for an impressive scorer really damn high then. If you're dismissing two guys who tied for 48th in the league in ESG last year as unimpressive scorers, then adding someone you'd consider impressive is going to be seriously expensive.

I think my bar is perfectly reasonable. If Caps are gonna give up a Vrana, it better be for a guy who can be expected to give you a bunch of big goals in playoffs, especially if he is possibly a one-dimensional scorer. Why else would you do it?

Also, Backstrom & Fehr might not be any more impressive than MJ as far as scoring, but you can't really compare them because their overall game has had a much greater impact on the team. A guy who excels at something else, plus is a "48th" scorer, is a hell of a lot more impressive than sbdy who is a "48th" scorer but hasn't given you much else. So Backstrom & Fehr can score 17 ESGs or whatever and still be quite impressive, but if Mojo in his current state does it, it's not anything to write home about. So, easy -- as soon as Mojo becomes a great setup guy, or a Selke candidate, or a fiend on the boards, he can be an impressive player without scoring more goals..

And again with the regular season ESGs.. They are all different, you can't just lump everybody together based on reg. season stats. I can certainly see taking a risk on a guy with "unimpressive" regular season numbers but with a track record (or at least flashes) of turning it on in playoffs. Who cares how many regular season ESGs Ward scored last year?

 

[HeyMattyB]

Stupid Mojo. If he was actually a viable option for 3C, the team would be sitting pretty right now. But he's not, and now the Caps have to figure out what to do with him (and his likely $4M+ arbitration award) PLUS getting a 3C.

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

I said he was affected by injury. It's just as likely a factor in the following years as Oates, when his numbers reverted to what they were before.

You don't think Fehr's faceoff skills, forechecking, work on the boards and willingness to mix it up set him apart from Mojo or carry any value? Especially on a Trotz team that needs a 3c?

Fehr at 2-2.5M and Mojo at 3M for 2 years seems fair to me.

I missed the injury mention, sorry. But you really think the concussion was responsible for his drop in scoring up to two years after the fact?

I absolutely think those aspects of Fehr's game have value, I was just listing the areas Mojo had the advantage in since you didn't bring them up originally.

Seems fair to me too, although I'd bet on 3.5M for Johansson. I really don't see him getting 4M in arbitration like some people fear, let alone 4+.

 

[artilector]

Maybe a better question for multiple coaching groups who keep giving him ice time despite the fact that he's horrible (according to some).

He's doing something right....or so it appears.

So did Brouwer.. and then he was gone.

 

[BobRouse]

Maybe a better question for multiple coaching groups who keep giving him ice time despite the fact that he's horrible (according to some).

He's doing something right....or so it appears.

MJ certainly is a polarizing figure on HF.

There are 4 categories of views on him IMO:

1. He is SUX! Passenger, soft, doesn't produce when it counts - addition by subtraction.

2. He's limited but still useful in some regards. Not worth a cent of what he is making now (or no more than 2.5-3 mil)

3. He's a good player and worth what he will get in the $4 million per range give or take. However...in our situation, needing a 3C and having acquired Williams and Oshie, the money would be better spent on a good 3C.

4. He's a good player, worth what he will get and we have to keep him at all costs and find some other way to get the 3C we need.

 

[hockeykicker]

so what would be everyones cutoff on johannson contract? 3.5 mil? 4 mil?

 

[artilector]

Btw, as far as Mojo, I do think the one thing that bodes well for him is that Trotz does seem to like him and thinks he can get more scoring out of him. So if a coach both trusts & really pushes a young player, the chances of getting the most out of whatever talent are so much greater..

 

[HeyMattyB]

MJ certainly is a polarizing figure on HF.

There are 4 categories of views on him IMO:

1. He is SUX! Passenger, soft, doesn't produce when it counts - addition by subtraction.

2. He's limited but still useful in some regards. Not worth a cent of what he is making now (or no more than 2.5-3 mil)

3. He's a good player and worth what he will get in the $4 million per range give or take. However...in our situation, needing a 3C and having acquired Williams and Oshie, the money would be better spent on a good 3C.

4. He's a good player, worth what he will get and we have to keep him at all costs and find some other way to get the 3C we need.

Hahah is this a poll on the Mojo thread? It should be.

 

[BobRouse]

Hahah is this a poll on the Mojo thread? It should be.

Yeah no kidding. Seems like alot of people here just feel he is trash and addition by subtraction.

so what would be everyones cutoff on johannson contract? 3.5 mil? 4 mil?

If it goes to arbitration, based on his comprables, he will get $4 mil or even more.

 

[Turd Ferguson]

Btw, as far as Mojo, I do think the one thing that bodes well for him is that Trotz does seem to like him and thinks he can get more scoring out of him. So if a coach both trusts & really pushes a young player, the chances of getting the most out of whatever talent are so much greater..

Lets hope for the best then. Otherwise development of younger prospects will slowly push him out of loop. 3.5 is what my cut off for him as of now.

 

[artilector]

so what would be everyones cutoff on johannson contract? 3.5 mil? 4 mil?

For me it's very hard to say because the more important factor is who else is available, and at what price?

Because if you can get a better player or combination of players with remaining cap space, then quite possibly it makes sense to trade MJ even if he is cheap.

And on the other hand, if you don't have better substitutes available, what are you really losing if you give him 4M+ for one year?

So IMO if I could get a great 3C or sniper, I'd trade MJ regardless. Otherwise, I'd be content with giving him any amount as long as it allows me to add cheap 3C depth, perhaps even at the deadline. The second options basically sounds like what the Caps are trying to do at the moment..

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

I think my bar is perfectly reasonable. If Caps are gonna give up a Vrana, it better be for a guy who can be expected to give you a bunch of big goals in playoffs, especially if he is possibly a one-dimensional scorer. Why else would you do it?

Also, Backstrom & Fehr might not be any more impressive than MJ as far as scoring, but you can't really compare them because their overall game has had a much greater impact on the team. A guy who excels at something else, plus is a "48th" scorer, is a hell of a lot more impressive than sbdy who is a "48th" scorer but hasn't given you much else. So Backstrom & Fehr can score 17 ESGs or whatever and still be quite impressive, but if Mojo in his current state does it, it's not anything to write home about. So, easy -- as soon as Mojo becomes a great setup guy, or a Selke candidate, or a fiend on the boards, he can be an impressive player without scoring more goals..

And again with the regular season ESGs.. They are all different, you can't just lump everybody together based on reg. season stats. I can certainly see taking a risk on a guy with "unimpressive" regular season numbers but with a track record (or at least flashes) of turning it on in playoffs. Who cares how many regular season ESGs Ward scored last year?

Weren't you the one who first brought up ESG and knocked Johansson for lacking consistency? My point was just that if you're going to do that, you have to apply the same level of scrutiny to other players, and the fact is that very few will pass that test. Consistent scoring at ES is really rare right now. And isn't that what this whole debate is about? Keeping Johansson versus trading him for someone who'll score more at even strength?

So on that point, JVR's not a huge upgrade on the Johansson we saw last year. Same streakiness in goal scoring and general effort, just as lacking in terms of physicality and defensive play, more willing to go to the front of the net but not as skilled a skater. Better player, sure, but not much of an upgrade if you want goal scoring and grit for the playoffs.

 

[Roughing]

MJ certainly is a polarizing figure on HF.

There are 4 categories of views on him IMO:

1. He is SUX! Passenger, soft, doesn't produce when it counts - addition by subtraction.

2. He's limited but still useful in some regards. Not worth a cent of what he is making now (or no more than 2.5-3 mil)

3. He's a good player and worth what he will get in the $4 million per range give or take. However...in our situation, needing a 3C and having acquired Williams and Oshie, the money would be better spent on a good 3C.

4. He's a good player, worth what he will get and we have to keep him at all costs and find some other way to get the 3C we need.

I'm in the 2-3 range here. I like him. I surely don't love him. He's not (at least, yet) what I hoped he'd be and I'm giving up that hope quickly. He's a decent 40pt guy but I don't like him in the top6 and he's not physical enough for me to be a bottom6 wing. If he was a C (where I've always wanted him) then, sure, I'm happy with him as 3C. Like anything else it's about cost. At $2.5M I'll happily take him, at $3.5M I'm meh on him, at $4.5M I don't want him and would move him to anyone that still sees promise in him. And, yes, if Laich weren't here it'd be easier for me to give MoJo the $4M... but there's a cap and I want a better third line.

 

[hockeykicker]

well thats not good

 

[HeyMattyB]

Oh dear. That's not good at all.

EDIT: As in, not good for the Caps re: Johansson. That's seems like a pretty solid deal for a very underrated Smith.

 

[hockeykicker]

so sounds like he probably won?

 

[BobRouse]

I'm in the 2-3 range here. I like him. I surely don't love him. He's not (at least, yet) what I hoped he'd be and I'm giving up that hope quickly. He's a decent 40pt guy but I don't like him in the top6 and he's not physical enough for me to be a bottom6 wing. If he was a C (where I've always wanted him) then, sure, I'm happy with him as 3C. Like anything else it's about cost. At $2.5M I'll happily take him, at $3.5M I'm meh on him, at $4.5M I don't want him and would move him to anyone that still sees promise in him. And, yes, if Laich weren't here it'd be easier for me to give MoJo the $4M... but there's a cap and I want a better third line.

I'm close to the same opinion here altho I do think he is a legit top 6 forward. I don't believe he is the best choice there but I don't believe he is a tweener either like Matty P. or guys like him.

RE: Laich. I'd agree but losing Laich would open up another hole on the PK. The more I think about it the more we need to keep him since you can't lose 4 PK forwards in one offseason (Fehr, Ward and Brouwer all gone already)

Caps are in a tough spot here but then again the salary cap makes it tough on every team who faces situations akin to this.

I'd think $4 million would make for a tough call. Glad I don't have to make that decision.

 

[artilector]

Weren't you the one who first brought up ESG and knocked Johansson for lacking consistency? My point was just that if you're going to do that, you have to apply the same level of scrutiny to other players, and the fact is that very few will pass that test. Consistent scoring at ES is really rare right now. And isn't that what this whole debate is about? Keeping Johansson versus trading him for someone who'll score more at even strength?

So on that point, JVR's not a huge upgrade on the Johansson we saw last year. Same streakiness in goal scoring and general effort, just as lacking in terms of physicality and defensive play, more willing to go to the front of the net but not as skilled a skater. Better player, sure, but not much of an upgrade if you want goal scoring and grit for the playoffs.

Yes, but I wouldn't have done that if I thought MJ was a significant all-around player. IMO for players of different all-around caliber, different standards apply when you're looking at a specific skill. Nobody is gonna complain that Kuz is not an impressive hitter, etc. But at this point, the only real impact I see MJ making on games is by scoring goals (with a few decent passes sprinkled in), and if that's most of it, then yeah, he better be impressive at scoring (especially in playoffs) to take up ~4M of cap space.

And if JVR is not much of an upgrade in that department, fine, then let's not give up significant assets to get him. I think your scouting bit on him is the most useful piece of actual opinion about him I've read on here

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

well thats not good

Why's that bad? Smith got 4M per year over his three RFA years, and statistically he's a better player than Johansson.

Last two years:

Smith: 161 GP, 47-49-96, 6 GP 2-3-5 in the playoffs
Mojo: 162 GP, 28-63-91, 14 GP 1-3-4 in the playoffs

Simplistic comparison, but arbitration seems to be pretty much a numbers game from what I can tell. I don't see how Johansson can argue he deserves more than Smith over his RFA years.

 

[hockeykicker]

Why's that bad? Smith got 4M per year over his three RFA years, and statistically he's a better player than Johansson.

Last two years:

Smith: 161 GP, 47-49-96, 6 GP 2-3-5 in the playoffs
Mojo: 162 GP, 28-63-91, 14 GP 1-3-4 in the playoffs

Simplistic comparison, but arbitration seems to be pretty much a numbers game from what I can tell. I don't see how Johansson can argue he deserves more than Smith over his RFA years.

true but this was after the arbitration hearing so im guessing he must have had a great argument as they were easily a million apart (nashville offered 3 mil)

im just worried that arbitration will increase johannsson by a mil