Sure thing, if you want to lose Holtby to Vegas instead.
Each team must expose a goaltender that's under contract or has received a qualifying offer for next season. The only goaltenders the Capitals have under contract are Holtby and Vanecek, but Grubauer is a RFA and thus can be qualified. Vanecek is a 2nd year pro, and thus exempt from the expansion draft. So the only goaltenders the Capitals have to expose are Holtby and Grubauer. If they trade Grubauer without getting another goalie under contract for next season, the Caps would have to expose Holtby.
There could be quite a few that want one, though. Dallas and perhaps Winnipeg and Calgary come to mind. Detroit seems a bit unsettled. They're inside the division but any of Carolina, NYI or Philadelphia could attempt to upgrade what they've been using. How about St. Louis with Allen not showing well lately?Based on that, it looks like it will be a buyer's market for the few teams that will want a goaltender upgrade.
Not a good time to try and cash out on a goalie.
There could be quite a few that want one, though. Dallas and perhaps Winnipeg and Calgary come to mind. Detroit seems a bit unsettled. They're inside the division but any of Carolina, NYI or Philadelphia could attempt to upgrade what they've been using. How about St. Louis with Allen not showing well lately?
Obviously Fleury and Bishop come with a track record but they're also pretty expensive whereas Grubauer would be a cheaper alternative with more prime left in his career. I'm not sure he carries quite as much value as Jones but if he continues to match Holtby I think there's a reasonable chance they're able to gain an asset to move him rather than losing him to Vegas.
Detroit is far more likely to try and trade away one of Howard or Mrazek than bring in another candidate. Same with Philadelphia. The Islanders are playing a waiting game with Sorokin and clearly value Berube enough to keep him on their roster over Halak, so I don't think they're going to crowd that crease even more than it is. I don't see Winnipeg giving up on Hellebuyck at this point, and bringing in Grubauer would mean exposing Helle, so that's not likely a viable destination. With the state of their team, Dallas is far more likely to opt for Bishop or Fleury than Grubauer.
The market for goaltenders is going to suck until after the expansion draft.
Who's to say that's the sole reason? Losing two players could be inevitable anyway given the way they're playing. It's not just about managing expansion protection slots but further down the line the cap next year. Will they have room for Grubauer after arbitration if he posts stellar limited numbers? How about Orlov? Schmidt? They're likely going to need to be active in reshuffling next season no matter what.Selling a player at less than market value to avoid them being picked in expansion just means you lose two players instead of one.
No one is going to want Howard and Mrazek has been very up-and-down. Both Mason & Neuvirth are pending UFAs and Berube isn't that good. Hellebuyck probably winds up protected but I don't think it's a total lock. (Friedman mentioned Pavelec maybe gets another chance soon.) Again, Grubauer for a team like Dallas allows them to put resources elsewhere as you'd figure they'd locked him in for at least $2-3M less than Fleury/Bishop/Varlamov. That could also be appealing for a team like St. Louis that has Allen at $4.35M but maybe can't give him a full vote of confidence. Teams like Calgary and Carolina may want to build with a younger goaltender and there isn't too much else out there that's young and NHL-ready it seems.Detroit is far more likely to try and trade away one of Howard or Mrazek than bring in another candidate. Same with Philadelphia. The Islanders are playing a waiting game with Sorokin and clearly value Berube enough to keep him on their roster over Halak, so I don't think they're going to crowd that crease even more than it is. I don't see Winnipeg giving up on Hellebuyck at this point, and bringing in Grubauer would mean exposing Helle, so that's not likely a viable destination. With the state of their team, Dallas is far more likely to opt for Bishop or Fleury than Grubauer.
The market for goaltenders is going to suck until after the expansion draft.
Who's to say that's the sole reason? Losing two players could be inevitable anyway given the way they're playing. It's not just about managing expansion protection slots but further down the line the cap next year. Will they have room for Grubauer after arbitration if he posts stellar limited numbers? How about Orlov? Schmidt? They're likely going to need to be active in reshuffling next season no matter what.
No one is going to want Howard and Mrazek has been very up-and-down. Both Mason & Neuvirth are pending UFAs and Berube isn't that good. Hellebuyck probably winds up protected but I don't think it's a total lock. (Friedman mentioned Pavelec maybe gets another chance soon.) Again, Grubauer for a team like Dallas allows them to put resources elsewhere as you'd figure they'd locked him in for at least $2-3M less than Fleury/Bishop/Varlamov. That could also be appealing for a team like St. Louis that has Allen at $4.35M but maybe can't give him a full vote of confidence. Teams like Calgary and Carolina may want to build with a younger goaltender and there isn't too much else out there that's young and NHL-ready it seems.
If Grubauer plays more often he easily could play himself on the map as a prime trade target for one of ten unsettled spots (BUF, CGY, CAR, COL, DAL, DET, NYI, PHI, STL, WPG). Even if it's only four or five actively in the market he still could be strongly in the mix. It depends on the level of urgency with many of them but I don't see a buyer's market necessarily. A couple of them may need to buy out one of their own Gs first but a case could be made for any of those spots should they clue into their lack of a true #1. Not to say Grubauer necessarily will be one in time but the more he puts up the numbers of one the more likely a team believes in the possibility. It's one of the perks of Trotz/Korn.
Look at it this way. People here are lamenting over the concept of losing a 1B for free. Why are other teams going to pay assets to put themselves in the same position?
I think there's just a lot more strategy that will be involved that doesn't make it so dire, esp. if the piece is in demand. My main point is you can't yet have a high degree of confidence in what the goaltender market will be. Nor what Grubauer's value/demand is league-wide just yet. Given the fuzzy framework GMs have in talks with Vegas pre-expansion there's a lot more to it than just protection numbers. GMs have the power to finesse things more to their liking.So then execute those other moves AFTER the expansion draft, once the market has normalized. Don't settle for 50 cents on the dollar for a goaltender.
But you're assuming these high cap options are unquestionably higher priority targets and that every team has a 1b they absolutely don't want to lose (and that it's unavoidable). When it comes to Bishop he's a pending UFA so that comes with negotiating a new deal. He and Fleury also have NMCs and can control the process while narrowing their markets.I still don't think you're factoring in the expansion draft in your math here. In any other year everything you're saying is true. But nobody is going to pay full price for a goaltender when there's BOTH more proven options (Bishop, Fleury) available AND the threat of expansion around the corner. Teams will realize that protecting Grubauer means exposing another goaltender, and will price their proposals accordingly. As up-and-down as Mrazek has been, do you really think that Detroit wants to give him up for free? They'd be putting themselves into the same situation people here want to avoid. They aren't going to overpay to put themselves in that position.
Trade Eller, Winnik, first rd pick and then whatever prospect another team wants for a true difference maker and this team could be unstoppable.
Imagine doing that deal and getting Duchene and instead of Eller we have Duchene providing secondary scoring.
This would be a huge move
Trade Eller, Winnik, first rd pick and then whatever prospect another team wants for a true difference maker and this team could be unstoppable.
Imagine doing that deal and getting Duchene and instead of Eller we have Duchene providing secondary scoring.
This would be a huge move
we could still protect 4 forwards and 4 defensemen if you don't want to lose Orlov.
Trade away our third line center and a guy who's half of the best PK tandem in the NHL for a second line center(we already have one) who can't play in his own zone to save his life? It's not about having more skilled players it's about having the right pieces and parts to play together as a team. That trade does absolutely nothing for us and in fact probably makes us a weaker team IMO. We've got enough skill up front they just need to show up when the money's on the table this year. Also the Av's aren't parting with Landeskog or Duchene without a top pairing D coming back.
we could still protect 4 forwards and 4 defensemen if you don't want to lose Orlov.