Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVII (New Year, New Lines)

[36kap36]

For whatever it's worth, from the discussion in the new thread about SC Champion roster composition, we have significantly less players acquired by trade as the average champion post-lockout. I'm not saying this as we should just go trade for the sake of trading, as I agree with the idea that we have chemistry right now, so don't change it. I more bring it up in the way of it's interesting to think about. Is this team, as it is currently put together, the exact roster that can compete for an entire playoffs? I'm not sure one way or another.

Also, I like to point that thread out, as it was supposed to help this conversation about what to do at the TDL.

 

[artilector]

Couple of questions about the offseason:
1. Can the Caps protect Niskanen+Carlson+Orlov, and THEN try to re-sign Alzner? Is it more or less a kosher scenario?
2. Can the Caps directly negotiate with McPhee to take (let's say) Orpik+1st and not touch the rest of the Caps D? Or would it have to be some kind of wink-wink understanding?

...Looking at numbers, I see about two significant pieces leaving (in addition to Winnik+maybe Grubauer, to keep backup goalie under 1M), among:

Oshie, Mojo, Orpik, Williams, Eller, Orlov, Alzner, Schmidt

Basically, any combination of the above that totals ~7-8M should make the cap work. (I guess Wilson is a candidate, too, but somehow I think the Caps are likely to keep him -- can't save that much by letting him go.)

I don't yet have a semi-objective preference as to who should get the short straw. We need to see what happens in playoffs.

I suppose the masterpiece move would be to trade Orpik+let Williams leave, protect Orlov and manage to re-sign Alzner.
Williams+Oshie would be the "simple" solution, if they can play the shell game with the D.
Something more exotic would be Williams+Eller+Wilson.
If they must lose a D, something like Oshie+Orlov or Williams+Alzner. (Orlov+Williams might not be enough to squeeze under the cap, would have to lose somebody else).

Btw, I like Williams; I guess it makes sense that he leaves, but subjectively, for now, I'd think twice about trading Eller instead. Again, we'll see how they look in playoffs.

 

[hockeykicker]

Edit: this is from when trotz started til now

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Edit: this is from when trotz started til now

Right, let's do playoffs now

 

[Jags]

Couple of questions about the offseason:
1. Can the Caps protect Niskanen+Carlson+Orlov, and THEN try to re-sign Alzner? Is it more or less a kosher scenario?

Yes, but to be completely within the rules, they'd have to wait until Alzner is officially unrestricted, and thus free to negotiate with other teams, too.

Technically, on the "wink-wink" side of things, they COULD have a wink-wink deal with Alzner worked out before the expansion draft, but not officially sign it until the expansion draft is over. This is referred to as a "drawer deal" and is against the rules, but it's one of those things that might happen anyway because you only really find out if someone blabs. And no one knows what the punishment is, so we don't know how dire the risk is (likely a fine and a 1st-round pick).

This is what McPhee is worried about -- teams cheating with deals like these to protect additional players. But to be fair, the flip side is that other GM needs to worry about McPhee doing the same thing -- using his UFA negotiation window to do a drawer deal with a pending UFA but not officially sign him until free agency starts, enabling McPhee to technically get 2 players from a team.

So it'll be interesting, though we'd only ever know anything like that happened if someone got caught. UFA's re-signed by their teams between the end of the expansion draft and the start of free agency will make people wonder, as will any valuable UFAs signed by Vegas (especially early) in free agency.

2. Can the Caps directly negotiate with McPhee to take (let's say) Orpik+1st and not touch the rest of the Caps D? Or would it have to be some kind of wink-wink understanding?

My understanding is that you can make deals like that -- trading McPhee whatever in return for not taking someone in expansion. That's a situation Pittsburgh may end up in with Murray. If they can't move Fleury, they might offer Vegas something to not select Murray to avoid having to buy Fleury out of the rest of his contract.

Looking at numbers, I see about two significant pieces leaving

As of right now, there are just too many moving pieces to speculate with any accuracy. Things to consider...

• They're obviously going to let some UFAs go, but Williams is playing himself back into "keep him if you can afford him" territory and Alzner is looking more expendable than usual with both Orlov and Schmidt playing well.
  
• Schmidt and Grubauer are playing their way into "Vegas might take them" territory.
  
• Our cap landscape would change dramatically if we could find a way to move Orpik. He has no movement clause, but you'd likely have to give up something very substantial to move him without retaining salary.
  
• If Vrana and/or Burakovsky show more growth this year, it'll effect how desperate we are to keep Oshie (and Williams).
  
• Eller's 3.5m is another big chunk we might like to lose, but he's been playing better lately.

With all those things up in the air and us having no real idea what it'll cost to sign ANY of our UFAs, it's pretty impossible to figure out. Then you figure in whatever trades we might make between now and then and it gets even harder.

 

[um]

Connolly and Winnik both deserve to be in lineup every day. Connolly produced on top line also when asked - so that's a good sign this system is doing pretty well for him.

Connolly is a 4th liner with little 2 way ability, he's able to squeeze into the third line but it's not idle with Eller and Burakovsky offensive struggles. Same goes for Vrana I think.

Putting one of Johansson or Vanek on the third line will allow Trotz to play them for more than 10 minutes a game, and we might be able to count on our third line, unlike last playoffs.

 

[Corby78]

Edit: this is from when trotz started til now

Poor NB, how is that guy not an every year all star?

 

[Carlzner]

Connolly is a 4th liner with little 2 way ability, he's able to squeeze into the third line but it's not idle with Eller and Burakovsky offensive struggles. Same goes for Vrana I think.

100% disagree. That line has been great.

 

[Corby78]

If we are tinkering with the Bottom 6, I wonder how much it would cost to get a Brian Boyle? Move Beagle over, and put him at 4C. You could sit Burt if he doesn't perform and move 43 or 10 up to the 3rd line. Or move Beagle up to 3rd line and have Connolly/Winnik/Boyle/Wilson on the bottom.

I always hated playing him in the playoff and he has experience winning.

 

[ovikovy817]

Stephenson recalled by Caps

 

[artilector]

If we are tinkering with the Bottom 6, I wonder how much it would cost to get a Brian Boyle? Move Beagle over, and put him at 4C. You could sit Burt if he doesn't perform and move 43 or 10 up to the 3rd line. Or move Beagle up to 3rd line and have Connolly/Winnik/Boyle/Wilson on the bottom.

I always hated playing him in the playoff and he has experience winning.

Yeah, he seemed pretty effective, for the Rags at least.

Might be a good guy for depth, though as a 4th liner, still likely a marginal improvement. Not sure Beagle, as great as he's played, is a fit on the current 3rd line.

I don't have an opinion about Vanek (have not seen/paid attention to him in forever), but theoretically that's why a rental 2nd line guy is a much more interesting piece -- because of the potential domino effect down the lines. Although... tbh, I am not sure Eller played any better with Mojo or Williams than with his current linemates. May be a different story in playoffs, though...

 

[hockeykicker]

Return of the Stephenson lol

 

[MaximusT]

Given we are now slowly approaching Feb/March - who do you guys think we target at the deadline?

I truly think this may be one of our last chances to win the chip with this group, so I think we have to go all in here.

Vanek was one that I saw on the main board which could be interesting.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Connolly is a 4th liner with little 2 way ability, he's able to squeeze into the third line but it's not idle with Eller and Burakovsky offensive struggles. Same goes for Vrana I think.

Putting one of Johansson or Vanek on the third line will allow Trotz to play them for more than 10 minutes a game, and we might be able to count on our third line, unlike last playoffs.

Don't forget Connolly is only 24 and was a #6 pick. I think he has a bit of upside. Some players just take longer to develop.

 

[Calicaps]

Don't forget Connolly is only 24 and was a #6 pick. I think he has a bit of upside. Some players just take longer to develop.

This.

 

[um]

Don't forget Connolly is only 24 and was a #6 pick. I think he has a bit of upside. Some players just take longer to develop.

We're not a development team, we're going for the cup. And Connolly would still get playoff games, there are always injuries and lineup changes.

 

[Hivemind]

Stephenson recalled ahead of Boyd? What does Boyd have to do to get a chance?

Unsure if Stephenson will see any game action with the way the team is playing right now. But I've been vocal about my desire to try out the Hershey guys, so I would hope he does.

 

[artilector]

Yes, but to be completely within the rules, they'd have to wait until Alzner is officially unrestricted, and thus free to negotiate with other teams, too.

Technically, on the "wink-wink" side of things, they COULD have a wink-wink deal with Alzner worked out before the expansion draft, but not officially sign it until the expansion draft is over. This is referred to as a "drawer deal" and is against the rules, but it's one of those things that might happen anyway because you only really find out if someone blabs. And no one knows what the punishment is, so we don't know how dire the risk is (likely a fine and a 1st-round pick).


My understanding is that you can make deals like that -- trading McPhee whatever in return for not taking someone in expansion. That's a situation Pittsburgh may end up in with Murray. If they can't move Fleury, they might offer Vegas something to not select Murray to avoid having to buy Fleury out of the rest of his contract.

...

Thanks, good stuff.

 

[Brian23]

I think we oughta go for a 2nd line player. Burakovsky and Williams have all done well on the 2nd line recently, but they've just done as bad earlier this year. I think both players can thrive playing with Eller on a poor-mans second line (and we role all our lines fairly evenly now a days) and then you can focus our 4th line on being a shutdown line. It just makes us better bumping Dre or Williams down to the 3rd line, because our top 5 is essentially entrenched.

 

[hockeykicker]

Stephenson recalled ahead of Boyd? What does Boyd have to do to get a chance?

Unsure if Stephenson will see any game action with the way the team is playing right now. But I've been vocal about my desire to try out the Hershey guys, so I would hope he does.

Stephenson has been skating as Hershey's #1C, has been for a while. Probably why he came up over boyd

 

[Underpants2]

Vanek: 29 points in 32 games

Reasonable salary. Expiring contract. Can play on the second or third lines. Would be fun watching Kuzy pass him the puck.

Pittsburgh is going to get a winger for Crosby. beating them to th punch for Vanek is a no brainer.

8-19-77
Vanek-92-14
65-20-90
26-83-43

Three scoring lines is what won the Cup for Pittsburgh.

 

[Revelation]

If Pittsburgh is going for Vanek then we need to try and beat them to him.

Imagine if we denied them Daley or Hagelin last year.

He also processes the game in a very advanced Fedorov/Jagr way and would be really good for showing it to Bura, Kuz, Vrana and Wilson, like he was for Galchenyuk, MaxPac and Gallagher.

 

[Pigskin]

watching Vanek right now, certainly seems desperate enough - perhaps like a man who knows he will go to a contender

had a nice goal in this game too, scrappy

the ripple effect of adding him would be very significant and lets face it, we hope our first is 26-30 range

no D to be found in this game Pens @ Wings ... Wings could finish them off here with a 5 on 3

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I feel an Old School, Frank the Tank, "We're going Streaking(early)" playoff avatar brewing!

 

[Hivemind]

I think we oughta go for a 2nd line player. Burakovsky and Williams have all done well on the 2nd line recently, but they've just done as bad earlier this year. I think both players can thrive playing with Eller on a poor-mans second line (and we role all our lines fairly evenly now a days) and then you can focus our 4th line on being a shutdown line. It just makes us better bumping Dre or Williams down to the 3rd line, because our top 5 is essentially entrenched.

Burakovsky is already playing on a line with Eller....
Johansson is on Kuznetsov's line.