Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVII (New Year, New Lines)

[EroCaps]

he signed a 5 year contract and he has 3 seasons left after this one..

IF he leaves the KHL:

Samsonov won't come here (NA) until 2018 and i'd guess he would likely play for the bears, and/or then back up holtby getting his feet wet.

At the end of Holtbys contract he will be reaching the age that goalies begin to drop off (he will be 31?), obviously that depends on the person and he will still most likely be a good goalie but statistics show that the goalies are in prime around age 25-27 and drop off sharply into their 30's.

Do we want to cash strap our team with a likely 9-10M cap hit on a goalie by then?
Lundqvist makes 8.5M and if you look at his stats, he's starting to degrade ever so slightly, he's signed until he's 38 years old, no thanks..

That's the reason I'm predicting Samsonov will be next in line, mainly because he's supposed to be a stud and the timing of contracts and age may work perfectly. The only reason I could see this is because this is a salary cap world.

I see where you were coming from, but betting on Holtby to deteriorate 5-6 years in advance is guess work at this point. There are other ways to fill that position if need be.

Also, by that time, Ovechkin and Backstrom will be on the back-end of their careers and the Caps' window might be closed.

If they can get a Cup out of moving Samsonov, Vrana, etc. you do it now and worry about your goalie in 6 years later.

 

[hockeykicker]

But I thought they weren't good?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

But I thought they weren't good?

Totally missing the playoffs.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

A lot can happen in 5 years. Holtby can have injuries and be a bad contract. Maybe the caps bottom out and trade everyone.

I mean stranger things could happen I guess, but so far durability isn't an issue. I'm not betting on them burning the team to the ground in the next 5 years....well at least 4 unless they screw things up badly somehow.

 

[artilector]

Thankfully, no need to make any sort of decision re:Samsonov for a while.
This year, options are likely limited to pure rentals with lesser price tag (IMO).
After the offseason, will likely need to completely re-evaluate the team and its needs.
I think it would be quite reasonable to take the long road with Samsonov, wait until he's breathing down Holtby's neck, and make a decision then -- like they did with Varlamov/Neuvirth/Holtby.

On the other hand, they NEED to keep Orlov this offseason. I don't care about objective arguments any more. The most fun/interesting player to watch, IMO.

 

[PB12]

Thankfully, no need to make any sort of decision re:Samsonov for a while.
This year, options are likely limited to pure rentals with lesser price tag (IMO).
After the offseason, will likely need to completely re-evaluate the team and its needs.
I think it would be quite reasonable to take the long road with Samsonov, wait until he's breathing down Holtby's neck, and make a decision then -- like they did with Varlamov/Neuvirth/Holtby.

On the other hand, they NEED to keep Orlov this offseason. I don't care about objective arguments any more. The most fun/interesting player to watch, IMO.

Like i said it all depends on how he does in the playoffs defensively. If he plays like he did last night he gone. You can't get caught like that. He has to learn quickly.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The playoffs and how he handles them will be the deciding factor with 9. At least his trade value is rising if they choose to go another route.

 

[SpinningEdge]

Honestly, if Samsonov has that much value - it'd be dumb to not look at offers.

Look at the "elite" goaltenders from 5 or 6 years ago VS now. It's completely random and things change quickly.

Samsonov IF can return a top 4 D or top 6 winger that's also young and on a ELC, it'd be dumb to not at least consider that.

Caps are a veteran team and have very few ELC's right now. Currently they have guys outperforming their contract (Kuzy, etc), but after this year roster is going to be full of guys getting paid. To compete in the salary cap era you have to continue to have guys that outperform their contract - and I think Samsonov can return a value like that.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Honestly, if Samsonov has that much value - it'd be dumb to not look at offers.

Look at the "elite" goaltenders from 5 or 6 years ago VS now. It's completely random and things change quickly.

Samsonov IF can return a top 4 D or top 6 winger that's also young and on a ELC, it'd be dumb to not at least consider that.

Caps are a veteran team and have very few ELC's right now. Currently they have guys outperforming their contract (Kuzy, etc), but after this year roster is going to be full of guys getting paid. To compete in the salary cap era you have to continue to have guys that outperform their contract - and I think Samsonov can return a value like that.

To be real, his value is lowered until his KHL contract is up. Just like we dealt with Kuzy.

 

[Hivemind]

Goalie prospects without NHL experience don't have much value. There's simply far too much uncertainty over goalie prospects, plus they tend to take a while to develop. Almost every team in the league has 1-2 goalies in their pipeline they really like, anyway. Nobody is going to give up quality NHL assets for a goalie prospect. When teams are looking for young goalie help, they almost always turn to back-ups or tandem goaltenders who are blocked (see Schneider, Jones, Talbot, Andersen, Varlamov, Lehner, Bernier, etc).

 

[SpinningEdge]

Goalie prospects without NHL experience don't have much value. There's simply far too much uncertainty over goalie prospects, plus they tend to take a while to develop. Almost every team in the league has 1-2 goalies in their pipeline they really like, anyway. Nobody is going to give up quality NHL assets for a goalie prospect. When teams are looking for young goalie help, they almost always turn to back-ups or tandem goaltenders who are blocked (see Schneider, Jones, Talbot, Andersen, Varlamov, Lehner, Bernier, etc).

I agree with this 99% of the time - but Samsonov is a first rd pick with a lot of hype (starter in world championships/etc). I think Samsonov has pretty darn good value.

 

[Brian23]

I agree with this 99% of the time - but Samsonov is a first rd pick with a lot of hype (starter in world championships/etc). I think Samsonov has pretty darn good value.

At best I think he'd be worth were he was drafted, a late first. That's pretty good for a young goalie prospect with no AHL time and can't possibly jump the pond for another 3 years.

 

[hockeykicker]

Flyers place good ol Boyd Gordon and his 950k contract on waivers

 

[artilector]

Flyers place good ol Boyd Gordon and his 950k contract on waivers

Best 5th line center money can buy.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

I agree with this 99% of the time - but Samsonov is a first rd pick with a lot of hype (starter in world championships/etc). I think Samsonov has pretty darn good value.

"Jack Campbell is a first rd pick with a lot of hype (starter in world championships/etc). I think Campbell has pretty darn good value."

That was the most clear and recent choice but I'm sure I wouldn't be hard pressed to find other goalie who fit the bill or had a better resume at that point in their development that flamed out. I think most teams just don't put a lot of stock in non-NHL/AHL experience, the world game and junior game is just too different.

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

"Jack Campbell is a first rd pick with a lot of hype (starter in world championships/etc). I think Campbell has pretty darn good value."

That was the most clear and recent choice but I'm sure I wouldn't be hard pressed to find other goalie who fit the bill or had a better resume at that point in their development that flamed out. I think most teams just don't put a lot of stock in non-NHL/AHL experience, the world game and junior game is just too different.

At this point in Campbell's career, he'd spent the year and a half since he was drafted being godawful in the OHL and had a much worse performance in his second showing as a WJC starter. There were significant warning signs for Campbell that aren't present for Samsonov.

 

[HTFN]

"Jack Campbell is a first rd pick with a lot of hype (starter in world championships/etc). I think Campbell has pretty darn good value."

That was the most clear and recent choice but I'm sure I wouldn't be hard pressed to find other goalie who fit the bill or had a better resume at that point in their development that flamed out. I think most teams just don't put a lot of stock in non-NHL/AHL experience, the world game and junior game is just too different.

I don't want to be that guy, but Jack Campbell didn't exactly make it look easy during the WJC, either. His rebound control was hot garbage.

I remembered someone being outstanding, looked it up, then realized that it was Benjamin Conz, and I was thinking of the 2010 WJC, where Campbell was subbed in during the gold medal game. I was going to make a point about how crazy that US defense corps was, until I realized he played in 2011 too. I can't speak as much to that, as I don't think I watched much aside from the Russian gold medal game, and neither goalie there seemed too spectacular.

 

[hockeykicker]

Caps and flyers game has been moved to 1:00 (30 mins later)

 

[ovikovy817]

Caps and flyers game has been moved to 1:00 (30 mins later)

This is better for me Now I can watch Man United's game against Liverpool and then follow with the Caps game without missing the first ≈10 minutes

 

[Hivemind]

I agree with this 99% of the time - but Samsonov is a first rd pick with a lot of hype (starter in world championships/etc). I think Samsonov has pretty darn good value.

Huh? Bobrovsky was Russia's starter in the World Championships, not Samsonov. Samsonov was left off the roster in favor of two other young Russian goaltenders (Sorokin and Shestyorkin). Unless you mean WJHC, in which case there are numerous goalie prospects out there with the same credibility.

Samsonov really isn't any more hyped than a typical blue chip goalie prospect. We just pay more attention to him because he's Caps property. But I don't see him having substantial value above guys like Sorokin or Demko.

 

[Blades of Steel]

Huh? Bobrovsky was Russia's starter in the World Championships, not Samsonov. Samsonov was left off the roster in favor of two other young Russian goaltenders (Sorokin and Shestyorkin). Unless you mean WJHC, in which case there are numerous goalie prospects out there with the same credibility.

Samsonov really isn't any more hyped than a typical blue chip goalie prospect. We just pay more attention to him because he's Caps property. But I don't see him having substantial value above guys like Sorokin or Demko.

probably because he was ranked 3rd best goalie prospect... i dont know

http://ingoalmag.com/features/top-50-nhl-goaltending-prospects-for-2015-2016-season/

 

[Hivemind]

probably because he was ranked 3rd best goalie prospect... i dont know

http://ingoalmag.com/features/top-50-nhl-goaltending-prospects-for-2015-2016-season/

And? Once again, goalie prospects without NHL experience aren't worth much. He's not worth any more than other blue chippers (which this season are him, Sorokin, Saros, and Demko).

 

[Ridley Simon]

And? Once again, goalie prospects without NHL experience aren't worth much. He's not worth any more than other blue chippers (which this season are him, Sorokin, Saros, and Demko).

Id rather them deal Vanacek anyway, were it to come to it.

That said... I'm firmly in the corner of no "real" moves. Teams clicking, and I don't see that morphing too much.

Add a vet scorer on the cheap, like Vrbata. If they can get a cheap vet luck mover on D, then great.

But thats it.

 

[Hivemind]

Vanecek likely has even less value than Samsonov. Grubauer would have significant value if it weren't for the expansion draft screwing up the goalie market. And that same expansion draft is why they cannot trade Grubauer without getting a goalie back (as trading Grubauer and not having a qualified goalie would mean they'd have to expose Holtby to expansion).

 

[HTFN]

Id rather them deal Vanacek anyway, were it to come to it.

That said... I'm firmly in the corner of no "real" moves. Teams clicking, and I don't see that morphing too much.

Add a vet scorer on the cheap, like Vrbata. If they can get a cheap vet luck mover on D, then great.

But thats it.

Agreed, but I think that it comes with the caveat that this is the last season of the window as it currently exists. Whoever said it before was right to some extent, this offseason presents a lot of unique opportunities for a franchise to seize advantage and give itself a facelift, if the GM is shrewd enough to navigate it.

The one thing I feel comfortable predicting about the expansion draft is that something unpredictable will happen. It might be a trade with Vegas and GMGM, it might be three steps removed from somebody else's, but I'm almost certain that there will be at least one opportunity for the Capitals to actually come away better than they entered.