Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVII (New Year, New Lines)

[trick9]

Ovechkin will free up more cap room. Trade him.

I would rather than trade Holtby.

Neither is getting traded though. Rightfully so.

 

[twabby]

Con: As RH points out Holtby gave up a 40 foot wrist shot to Kessel for the first goal in game 6. His overall stats in the playoffs and largely, his play has been outstanding. Facts are that Cup winning goalies cant give that goal up.

Yes they can, and that's demonstrated by Murray giving up several questionable goals throughout last season's run especially against Tampa Bay and San Jose. Giving up a goal in the first period to go down 1-0 isn't the death knell of a Cup-winning team. The Capitals consistently play not to lose and asking your goalie to be perfect is not a formula for success. Every goalie gives up soft goals, Holtby does so with less frequency than almost every other goalie.

 

[trick9]

I don't think anyone here wouldn't trade Holtby for Crosby or McDavid, it's this statement:



that I'm disagreeing with. Every statistical measure shows that he has been a top 5 goalie for his entire career, including when you adjust for shot quality (taking team effects out of the equation). Lundqvist, Price, and maybe Schneider are the only ones who I think have been consistently better.

Cory Schneider has never won 28 games in a season in his career, and he's 3½ years older. Holtby just turned 27 recently and he's had 89 wins in his last 2 full seasons. That's nearly as much as Cory Schneider has wins in his career. Wins are a team stat to a degree, sure, but in terms of holding a lead for his team, this is ridiculously lopsided debate in favor of Holtby.

 

[twabby]

Cory Schneider has never won 28 games in a season in his career, and he's 3½ years older. Holtby just turned 27 recently and he's had 89 wins in his last 2 full seasons. That's nearly as much as Cory Schneider has wins in his career. Wins are a team stat to a degree, sure, but in terms of holding a lead for his team, this is ridiculously lopsided debate in favor of Holtby.

The New Jersey Devils are like the postseason version of the Capitals, except all the time. They can't score for crap (lowest scoring team in the NHL last year, 3rd lowest the year before, 4th lowest the year before that) and the only reason they haven't been a lottery team is because of Schneider. Wins are not a meaningful statistic to measure goalies. It reminds me of people who say "I know +/- is a bogus statistic" and then go on to make an argument based on +/-.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I just think goalies are grossly overrated. Pens just won the cup with a AHL goalie. We have a goalie with all time playoff stats yet has a losing record and never got past the 2nd round. And falls short in every big game

 

[txpd]

Yes they can, and that's demonstrated by Murray giving up several questionable goals throughout last season's run especially against Tampa Bay and San Jose. Giving up a goal in the first period to go down 1-0 isn't the death knell of a Cup-winning team. The Capitals consistently play not to lose and asking your goalie to be perfect is not a formula for success. Every goalie gives up soft goals, Holtby does so with less frequency than almost every other goalie.

Twabs, we are talking about the Capitals Not just some generic team. The Caps have a taller hump to get over than the other team. The Caps lost game 6 because their reliable goalie gave up a soft goal early to give the home team the lead. Then their top defensive defenseman blew out his groin. They the 2nd best defensive defenseman took a double minor resulting in 2ppg's against.

The soft goal and the double minor/awful pk should never have happened. I know you like to blame Orpik. You cant pass Holtby at the same time.

 

[4thTierSport]

I just think goalies are grossly overrated. Pens just won the cup with a AHL goalie. We have a goalie with all time playoff stats yet has a losing record and never got past the 2nd round. And falls short in every big game

(mod) Murray has been one of the better goalies in the league since last year and he completely destroyed the AHL when he was there. Murray won despite having a barely NHL level defense in front of him and 1-1/2 forward lines bailing him out when he wasn't spinning on his head. This post is dumbfounding.

Have you watching Price last year, Quick in LA's runs or Halak in MTL? Overrated?

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Ok. Never mind! Holtby is a all time great and we are winning the cup!!!

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Murray won the Cup because:
1. He's really good most of the time.
2. He stood on his head when his team was flat.
3. The Pens' offense was able to take over games in which Murray wasn't playing so well.

Holtby can do the first two things even better than Murray, but the Caps' offense won't take over games in which he's not playing well.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Wouldn't it be awesome if Ovy had a resurgence like Crosby is having?

/cry

 

[twabby]

Twabs, we are talking about the Capitals Not just some generic team. The Caps have a taller hump to get over than the other team. The Caps lost game 6 because their reliable goalie gave up a soft goal early to give the home team the lead. Then their top defensive defenseman blew out his groin. They the 2nd best defensive defenseman took a double minor resulting in 2ppg's against.

The soft goal and the double minor/awful pk should never have happened. I know you like to blame Orpik. You cant pass Holtby at the same time.

I'm not giving a Holtby a pass on that goal. I'm saying that Cup winning teams are able to overcome a leaky goal every now and then because they can score goals.

Going forward, Holtby is the least of the team's worries IMO. To focus on his few soft playoff goals allowed while ignoring how the Capitals are one of the worst even strength scoring teams in the league in the postseason is a huge mistake. I'm not worried about Holtby playing at a high level come playoff time. I'm worried they still won't be able to score.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

Wouldn't it be awesome if Ovy had a resurgence like Crosby is having?

/cry

Honestly can't see that happening

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Wouldn't it be awesome if Ovy had a resurgence like Crosby is having?

/cry

Well he'd have to start moving his feet first. Can't score if you don't make the effort to score.

 

[Hivemind]

Is there some amount of merit to the concept of trading Holtby? Yeah, there's an argument that can be made (although the people attempting to make that argument now are barking up the wrong trees). There are cases for investing less of the cap in a goalie, cases for Mitch Korn being able to elevate replacement talent*, and a case that the defense-first system of Trotz is the ideal scenario to skimp on a goaltender (as opposed to a more aggressive system that would require a goaltender that can steal more games).

*Note, I'm not saying Holtby is replacement level, but that Mitch Korn could elevate the play of the replacement goaltender.



HOWEVER, there couldn't possibly be a worse time to trade Holtby than right now. The expansion draft means this is pretty much the worst scenario to try and get good value for a starting goaltender. The Penguins are going to try and move Fleury before the draft so they can protect Murray. Ben Bishop is a pending UFA and the Lightning may try and trade him (or his rights) even before he hits the market. Right there is two high profile starting goaltenders, including one of last year's Vezina finalists, acting as competition to any Holtby trade. It's a buyers market for starting goaltenders right now. We wouldn't get value anything near what Holtby's worth.

 

[Dr John Carlson]

I just think goalies are grossly overrated. Pens just won the cup with a AHL goalie. We have a goalie with all time playoff stats yet has a losing record and never got past the 2nd round. And falls short in every big game

I just think left wingers are grossly overrated. Pens just won the cup with an AHL left winger. We have a left winger who's one of the greatest goal scorers in history yet has a losing record and never got past the 2nd round. And falls short in every big game.

 

[twabby]

Hey AlexBrovechkin, everyone is waiting for the GDT. No one wants to start it with the streak you're on!

edit: n/m I'm dumb someone else started the Canucks one

 

[Sam Spade]

The ONE thing that all Cup winning teams have is a great goaltender. Whether it's a guy playing out of his mind for one magical run or a stalwart who's consistent. Plenty of teams load up on offensive and defensive talent among their skaters but never go anywhere.

So why would we roll the dice on shuffling the deck with the skaters if it means removing the most solid piece we have for a Cup run? It doesn't make sense from a risk/reward standpoint. The better option is to get the talent we have among the skaters to actually play up to their potential in the playoffs like Holtby has for most of his career.

Ah, wrong. The one thing all Cup winning teams have is a true, bone fide number one dman (Carolina being the only exception in the last 20 years). Lidstrom, Keith, Doughty, Letang, Chara, Stevens, Pronger, Neidermeyer, they are the key.

Wouldn't it be awesome if Ovy had a resurgence like Crosby is having?

Wait, so back to back to back 50 goal seasons, four Rockets in a row and Ovechkin needs to have a "resurgence"?

Unbelievable.

 

[billcook]

Wait, so back to back to back 50 goal seasons, four Rockets in a row and Ovechkin needs to have a "resurgence"?

Unbelievable.

He could easily get at least 10 extra assists yearly (based on talent, not current system), which would be difference between top-5 in points and top-15 in points.

14 pp assists in the last two seasons. I mean, c'mon

Power play assists:

Season | PPA

2016-17|2
2015-16|5
2014-15|9
2011-12|10
2012-13|11
2013-14|15
2007-08|15
2010-11|17
2006-07|21
2009-10|23
2008-09|27
2005-06|31

 

[Revelation]

Product of the system?! The system doesn't work without 70.

The "system" Trotz is using worked in Nashville with Vokoun, Mason, Rinne and just about everyone they threw there. He left and Rinne took a dive off the face of the Earth. It's been working more than fine with Grubauer here. We have one of the more goalie friendly systems in the league.

We're the St. Louis Blues of the East, who also managed to get Elliott stupid good numbers with their system as he's being exposed in Calgary now.

If Gruby starts outplaying Holtby they need to have the balls to ride him like Rangers are doing with Raanta

 

[Capathetic]

Ovi no doubt isn't playing at his full capacity. For starters he hits everything in sight when he is on his game. He has his moments. The St Louis game with the hat trick for example. He got the early goal and just had a look about him that he wasn't done. I remember saying that to my brother during the game but I said he would get two goals and come close to a hat trick with a few deadly chances. Proved me wrong with that deadly shot lol.

He's saving it for the stretch run imo.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Ah, wrong. The one thing all Cup winning teams have is a true, bone fide number one dman (Carolina being the only exception in the last 20 years). Lidstrom, Keith, Doughty, Letang, Chara, Stevens, Pronger, Neidermeyer, they are the key.



Wait, so back to back to back 50 goal seasons, four Rockets in a row and Ovechkin needs to have a "resurgence"?

Unbelievable.

Does his current points pace even feel like he's treading water? Put away the faux outrage and face life. He's trending downward considerably this season so far overall. Not criticizing, just saying it would be nice to see an explosion back to previous glory days.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Ovi no doubt isn't playing at his full capacity. For starters he hits everything in sight when he is on his game. He has his moments. The St Louis game with the hat trick for example. He got the early goal and just had a look about him that he wasn't done. I remember saying that to my brother during the game but I said he would get two goals and come close to a hat trick with a few deadly chances. Proved me wrong with that deadly shot lol.

He's saving it for the stretch run imo.

All part of Trotz's master plan!

 

[Brian23]

He could easily get at least 10 extra assists yearly (based on talent, not current system), which would be difference between top-5 in points and top-15 in points.

14 pp assists in the last two seasons. I mean, c'mon

Power play assists:

Season | PPA

2016-17|2
2015-16|5
2014-15|9
2011-12|10
2012-13|11
2013-14|15
2007-08|15
2010-11|17
2006-07|21
2009-10|23
2008-09|27
2005-06|31

Its as much design as everything else, but the nosedive his assists have taken over the last decade is pretty stark. I'm really curious why he suddenly stopped getting assists as he still, in my opinion, has some pretty solid dishes.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The "system" Trotz is using worked in Nashville with Vokoun, Mason, Rinne and just about everyone they threw there. He left and Rinne took a dive off the face of the Earth. It's been working more than fine with Grubauer here. We have one of the more goalie friendly systems in the league.

We're the St. Louis Blues of the East, who also managed to get Elliott stupid good numbers with their system as he's being exposed in Calgary now.

If Gruby starts outplaying Holtby they need to have the balls to ride him like Rangers are doing with Raanta

We'll agree to disagree on 70. Grubby needs an extended stretch of play to prove he's a legit #1 IMO.

I don't see a precipitous drop in play coming from Holtby otherwise.

 

[Calicaps]

Does his current points pace even feel like he's treading water? Put away the faux outrage and face life. He's trending downward considerably this season so far overall. Not criticizing, just saying it would be nice to see an explosion back to previous glory days.

His current goal pace is in line with last year. Points? Not sure. He got beat by ****ing Crosby again this past fall. He has no ****s left to give about anything not called the Stanley Cup or the Olympics, and I have a hard time being bothered by it myself.