Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVII (New Year, New Lines)

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Vilica

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Jun 1, 2014
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Holtbyisms,

It is 330am and I'm not really thinking all that deeply. I'm not in favor of trading Holtby at all, the hypothetical was more a thought exercise than any serious contemplation. I threw together the Karlsson proposal after about 30 seconds of thinking about it. Maybe when I wake up in the morning, I'll realize that the price to upgrade a t25 D to a t5 D is probably a bit less than a t5 G.
 

Revelation

Registered User
Aug 15, 2016
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Totally the reason the Caps did not win the cup.

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46 games is not a small sample either.

He hasn't been a problem but he hasn't been the solution either. Even Halak managed to clench out an ECF for his team once. Holtby hasn't taken an otherwise outplayed team to the ECF like Hank and numerous other goalies have, which is the only real argument for him being untouchable. And his stats were put up in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs, before he had a chance to get worn down like goalies that go deep that start every game.

He had one amazing series vs Boston that he stole, then got to face Islanders and Flyers which were totally outgunned by us and sucked at scoring.

Perhaps taking a small downgrade on goalie but using the resulting assets/cap flexibility to get an upgrade somewhere else as a result more than makes up for it. I don't see why Grubauer can't be a similar caliber (~.925 SP) G for us. It's not about getting rid of Holtby, it's about needing to upgrade multiple positions on the roster and not having much cap flexibility or assets to do it, and needing to get creative as a result.

Tampa is about to lose a similar caliber goalie in Bishop and they're set up just fine afterwards. Is Vasilevski that much better than Grubauer/Samsonov tandem we have coming up?
 

Holtbyisms

Matt Irwin is a legit talent
Jul 1, 2012
6,990
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He hasn't been a problem but he hasn't been the solution either. Even Halak managed to clench out an ECF for his team once. Holtby hasn't taken an otherwise outplayed team to the ECF like Hank and numerous other goalies have, which is the only real argument for him being untouchable. And his stats were put up in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs, before he had a chance to get worn down like goalies that go deep that start every game.

He had one amazing series vs Boston that he stole, then got to face Islanders and Flyers which were totally outgunned by us and sucked at scoring.

Perhaps taking a small downgrade on goalie but using the resulting assets/cap flexibility to get an upgrade somewhere else as a result more than makes up for it. I don't see why Grubauer can't be a similar caliber (~.925 SP) G for us. It's not about getting rid of Holtby, it's about needing to upgrade multiple positions on the roster and not having much cap flexibility or assets to do it, and needing to get creative as a result.

Tampa is about to lose a similar caliber goalie in Bishop and they're set up just fine afterwards. Is Vasilevski that much better than Grubauer/Samsonov tandem we have coming up?

Just stop. :help:
 

g00n

Retired Global Mod
Nov 22, 2007
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Yeah we've won so much with Holtby


The ONE thing that all Cup winning teams have is a great goaltender. Whether it's a guy playing out of his mind for one magical run or a stalwart who's consistent. Plenty of teams load up on offensive and defensive talent among their skaters but never go anywhere.

So why would we roll the dice on shuffling the deck with the skaters if it means removing the most solid piece we have for a Cup run? It doesn't make sense from a risk/reward standpoint. The better option is to get the talent we have among the skaters to actually play up to their potential in the playoffs like Holtby has for most of his career.
 

twabby

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Mar 9, 2010
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Holtby provides tremendous value for his contract so while I get your general idea of making a slight downgrade to improve elsewhere, I just don't think Grubauer and Samsonov have shown that they can consistently play above average at the position like Holtby has. Further, Holtby's (and any other consistently great goalie's) impact on goal differential is greater than any skater's impact, save for players like Crosby, McDavid, etc. and those players will not be available no matter what.
 

Jags

Mildly Disturbed
May 5, 2016
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He hasn't been a problem but he hasn't been the solution either. Even Halak managed to clench out an ECF for his team once. Holtby hasn't taken an otherwise outplayed team to the ECF like Hank and numerous other goalies have, which is the only real argument for him being untouchable.

He put up a 2.28/92.3% in the Pens series. That's pretty much exactly on par with his Vezina-winning season (2.20/92.2%). And that's with the team playing pretty poorly in front of him in that series.

"Good in the playoffs but not amazing..."? "Outplayed by Murray..."? You must've bumped your head. Our offense cratered way before the playoffs even began, and that trend continued in the postseason. So was Murray a world-beater, or were we struggling versus EVERYONE offensively? Watch those games back and tell me we were creating quality chances that Murray stood on his head to save. No, what you'll see is an offense that pretty routinely failed to get ANYTHING going. Murray just reaped the benefits of that, and so did Neuvirth.

You don't have to "downgrade" anything to free up cap space. Orpik, Winnik, and Eller have a collective $10.225m cap hit. You wouldn't maybe want to cut there first, before trading away your best player? One that's signed to a pretty team-friendly contract, by the way...

There are far, FAR better ways to make cap room. Those 3 guys are examples of players whose value to the team can be replaced for far less dollars, without taking a sizable performance hit. Williams' hit is coming off the books entirely unless he wants to stay for peanuts. The expansion draft is going to relieve us of someone. Those are 5 options off the top of my head that could easily yield the space we need to maintain.

Trading Holtby? Why? Because Grubauer has played well this year? This is a guy that somehow managed to put up a losing record with a Presidents' Trophy team last year, despite getting pretty uniformly favorable starts. His actual numbers were fine, but if you want to talk about a goalie that can win you clutch games in the playoffs, look no further than the keeper with exactly 1 playoff game under his belt that gave up 3 on 21 shots (85.7%), right?

It takes more than a 6-game sample playing mostly against whichever is the lesser opponent in back-to-backs to prove that you're ready to fully replace a guy who just won the Vezina and has ridiculously bonkers postseason numbers.

I'm thrilled with the way Grubauer has played this year, but those numbers are still in favorable starts for a team that's been strong defensively and among the league's best in shots-against.
 
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g00n

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Nov 22, 2007
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I can't believe we're even discussing this. Anything else to talk about?
 

RandyHolt

Keep truckin'
Nov 3, 2006
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The disconnect, Holts for all his playoff glory, seems to give up early soft goals in those pivotal games. Aaron ****ing Asham. Certainly more often than his collective opponents have gifted us. The effect this has in demoralizing our team cannot be measured. Regardless if I am wrong, he is not stealing games that I see his inferior counterparts doing to our top flight full aerial assault offense. Every damn year.

How many shots is he facing? I know SV is all we have to go by, but he has played for some old school VERY defensive minded coaches led by Dale of course. Is that not a factor at all in those stats? Our series often seem VERY low scoring and one goal games.

The stat fiends want the discussion ended by looking at his stats. Great - don't bother debating, just link to stats, link to stats. But if he is the greatest playoff goaltender in the modern era as those stats suggest, he would truly command a kings ransom for he could carry any team. Except for apparently... nevermind.

With the games being so defensive minded now, and pee-wees brainwashed left wing lock > offense, I suspect a tender carrying a team to a cup is not quite as mandatory as it used to be. Team defense is playing the right way, right?
 

twabby

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Mar 9, 2010
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The disconnect, Holts for all his playoff glory, seems to give up early soft goals in those pivotal games. Aaron ****ing Asham. Certainly more often than his collective opponents have gifted us. The effect this has in demoralizing our team cannot be measured. Regardless if I am wrong, he is not stealing games that I see his inferior counterparts doing to our top flight full aerial assault offense. Every damn year.

How many shots is he facing? I know SV is all we have to go by, but he has played for some old school VERY defensive minded coaches led by Dale of course. Is that not a factor at all in those stats? Our series often seem VERY low scoring and one goal games.

The stat fiends want the discussion ended by looking at his stats. Great - don't bother debating, just link to stats, link to stats. But if he is the greatest playoff goaltender in the modern era as those stats suggest, he would truly command a kings ransom for he could carry any team. Except for apparently... nevermind.

With the games being so defensive minded now, and pee-wees brainwashed left wing lock > offense, I suspect a tender carrying a team to a cup is not quite as mandatory as it used to be. Team defense is playing the right way, right?

It's only demoralizing because the team hasn't been able to score in the playoffs and they know falling behind by a goal is a practically insurmountable obstacle. When you rely on your goaltender to play near-perfect hockey in order to win games like the Capitals have in recent postseasons, things aren't going to end well.

The best way to utilize an advantage in net (which the Capitals do have over most teams) is to open games up and put pressure on the other goalie to make saves as well, especially when you have the talent at forward the Capitals do. Instead, Trotz has opted to playing grinding, collapsing, safe hockey which inherently makes games closer than they need to be (see last year's series against the Flyers). There's a reason why low-scoring games have been termed "coin-flip" hockey: because there is a ton of variance involved in these games and many times the better team doesn't win.

Good teams look to blowout other teams, not win 2-1 squeakers. This has been a recurring problem under Trotz come postseason.
 

Ovechkins Wodka

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Dec 1, 2007
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Just selling high on a system goalie. We have one of the highest ratted goalies in the the minors. If the right deal came like Seguin I'll wouldnt blink in making the deal.
 

g00n

Retired Global Mod
Nov 22, 2007
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Where is this "system goalie" crap coming from? Holtby's worst performances were under Oates when the system was unbelievably bad (let the other team shoot). No goaltender would look good for long in that scheme. Anyone who's seen him play or train knows he has elite individual skills. Good lord.
 

twabby

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Mar 9, 2010
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Via corsica.hockey:

Amongst all goaltenders with 5000 minutes played since Holtby came in the league, he is ranked second in save percentage on high-danger chances behind only Cory Schneider. He also is 5th in Goals Saved Above Average/60 (which takes into account shot quality), behind only Lundqvist, Schneider, Talbot, and Halak. Restricting it only to playoffs, Holtby is by far the best goaltender in terms of GSAA/60.

He is not a system goalie.
 
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ovikovy817

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May 23, 2015
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Trade Holtby? Really?:amazed: C'mon, you cannot do this. We're not in a video game. I understand the logic, but it's waaaaaaaaaay to risky.
 

Ovechkins Wodka

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Dec 1, 2007
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Holtby couldn't see the ice for team Canada. I think 15 or so goalies could put up his numbers playing in front of this roster. Not to mention we are loaded with goalie depth. I'm not saying shop him on the cheap, but if someone offered a stud skater I would do it.
 

g00n

Retired Global Mod
Nov 22, 2007
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Holtby couldn't see the ice for team Canada. I think 15 or so goalies could put up his numbers playing in front of this roster. Not to mention we are loaded with goalie depth. I'm not saying shop him on the cheap, but if someone offered a stud skater I would do it.

:shakehead

Are you being serious right now?
 

twabby

Registered User
Mar 9, 2010
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22-24 playoff record.

Then trade every Capital who has been with the team since 2011-12 because they all have that same record. Holtby, Ovechkin, Backstrom, Johansson, Beagle, Carlson, Alzner are all 22-24.

Wins are a team stat, not a goalie stat.
 

Ovechkins Wodka

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I'm just saying Holtbys WAR on our team would be worth trading for an A+ skater. It wont happen so the point is mute.
 

txpd

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Jan 25, 2003
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Via corsica.hockey:

Amongst all goaltenders with 5000 minutes played since Holtby came in the league, he is ranked second in save percentage on high-danger chances behind only Cory Schneider. He also is 5th in Goals Saved Above Average/60 (which takes into account shot quality), behind only Lundqvist, Schneider, Talbot, and Halak. Restricting it only to playoffs, Holtby is by far the best goaltender in terms of GSAA/60.

He is not a system goalie.

Pro: EVERYBODY seems to forget that last season the team regularly started out like crap. Holtby would stand on his head for the first 5 or 10 minuts until the team got untracked.

Con: As RH points out Holtby gave up a 40 foot wrist shot to Kessel for the first goal in game 6. His overall stats in the playoffs and largely, his play has been outstanding. Facts are that Cup winning goalies cant give that goal up.

There were other reasons that they lost, for sure, but the Caps will win when their goaltending rises to the occasion. As opposed to that Kessel goal
 

twabby

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Mar 9, 2010
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I'm just saying Holtbys WAR on our team would be worth trading for an A+ skater. It wont happen so the point is mute.

I don't think anyone here wouldn't trade Holtby for Crosby or McDavid, it's this statement:

I think 15 or so goalies could put up his numbers playing in front of this roster.

that I'm disagreeing with. Every statistical measure shows that he has been a top 5 goalie for his entire career, including when you adjust for shot quality (taking team effects out of the equation). Lundqvist, Price, and maybe Schneider are the only ones who I think have been consistently better.
 
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