Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVII (New Year, New Lines)

[CapitalsCupReality]

What ever happened to Burakovski?

Zero development the last two years?

That's not accurate. He had a nice season last year and looked posed to be a 20g guy this year.

 

[Hivemind]

Have you looked at Osgood and Crawford's save% in those recent Cup years? Tracks exactly with what I said. All 3 years over .920 which is Vezina territory. And I said Vezina quality STATS for most, not Vezina winners required to win Cups.

That's a textbook example of selection bias.

As an aside, .920 isn't that great anymore.

We're also not talking about a mediocre goaltender getting hot. We're talking about a Vezina trophy winner who also is statistically one of the best playoff goaltenders.

Almost every Cup winner in the past 15-20 years has had a goalie playing at a very high level for most of the playoff games. That's a fact. That's no more about SELECTION BIAS than observing the non-causal correlation that (surprise) good teams have a legit #1 defenseman. Well, plenty of teams that DON'T win Cups have those guys. And plenty of rookies and first time goaltenders and mediocre goaltenders DON'T win Cups.

Which trend would you bet your house on?

Look back at my posts. I'm not advocating for trading Holtby. I'm simply pointing out the flaws in the logic you're pursuing. I've done the same with some of the arguments being used to advocate for trading Holtby (and others I left alone because other posters had it covered). I'm a process-oriented guy. I want to highlight processes, rather than hitching myself to the outcome of a debate. Thus why I take exception to logic I see as flawed, even if I support the same conclusion that's being drawn from it.

 

[g00n]

That's a textbook example of selection bias.

As an aside, .920 isn't that great anymore.



Look back at my posts. I'm not advocating for trading Holtby. I'm simply pointing out the flaws in the logic you're pursuing. I've done the same with some of the arguments being used to advocate for trading Holtby (and others I left alone because other posters had it covered). I'm a process-oriented guy. I want to highlight processes, rather than hitching myself to the outcome of a debate. Thus why I take exception to logic I see as flawed, even if I support the same conclusion that's being drawn from it.

Well that's really helpful. Thanks.

 

[g00n]

So anyway, yeah, don't trade away a statistically elite playoff goalie for roster building lottery tickets. It's not a smart move, especially when you have skaters who are not yet at their peak and will provide greater value over trade if you can get them to produce to potential.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Also noteworthy Grubby has 1.67 GAA and 940% he has better stats then Holtby this season

 

[Hivemind]

FWIW, what I view as the most common thread among virtually all Stanley Cup Champions is finding guys who can significantly out value their contracts. Frequently this comes in the form of players on ELCs and/or RFA bridge deals achieving at high levels during the playoffs. It's also part of the reason I'm less optimistic about Chicago winning another Cup than many others, now that Kane, Toews, and Crawford are no longer value buys (and Toews is arguably the worst contract in the NHL).

Applying this to goaltending, until the past few seasons, it had almost exclusively been teams with value-priced goaltending winning the Cup in the salary cap era. This trend has been bucked more recently with the Boston win ($5M for Thomas), 2nd Los Angeles win (Quick @ $5.8M instead of $1.8M) and arguably the Pittsburgh win (Murray was cheap, but Fleury's cap hit still counted).

*I'm omitting the 3rd Chicago win with a $5.8M Crawford (instead of a $2.67M Crawford) as Chicago was able to exploit Kane's LTIR status to be well above the salary cap during the playoffs.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

So anyway, yeah, don't trade away a statistically elite playoff goalie for roster building lottery tickets. It's not a smart move, especially when you have skaters who are not yet at their peak and will provide greater value over trade if you can get them to produce to potential.

The end.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

So anyway, yeah, don't trade away a statistically elite playoff goalie for roster building lottery tickets. It's not a smart move, especially when you have skaters who are not yet at their peak and will provide greater value over trade if you can get them to produce to potential.

Never said trade him for lottery tickets, I said A+ Dman or Center

 

[g00n]

Never said trade him for lottery tickets, I said A+ Dman or Center

Well that changes everything.

 

[Hivemind]

No team is going to trade a franchise defenseman or center for a franchise goalie when Ben Bishop is a UFA and the Penguins are desperate to ditch Fleury. Getting ideal value for top flight goaltenders isn't a thing that can happen until the expansion draft(s) pass and the goalie market settles down.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Never said trade him for lottery tickets, I said A+ Dman or Center

There's a list in everyone's heads of players they would take in trade for 70, (or any player probably) but those are dream trades typically right? The guys I want back would probably cost more in cap hit.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

There's a list in everyone's heads of players they would take in trade for 70, (or any player probably) but those are dream trades typically right? The guys I want back would probably cost more in cap hit.

Prolly. Can't see a team a goalie away trading their best player.

 

[Revelation]

So anyway, yeah, don't trade away a statistically elite playoff goalie for roster building lottery tickets. It's not a smart move, especially when you have skaters who are not yet at their peak and will provide greater value over trade if you can get them to produce to potential.

If you look at his playoff stats closer you get 2 playoff series vs the Islanders and Flyers were outclassed by the caps that boosted them. He could never edge out the Rangers (whose skaters weren't superior to ours, usually subpar or neck in neck but they had Lundqvist who really does consistently steal PO series) and couldn't edge out Murray and the Penguins. The Pens were better but even most Pens fans admit that we played them harder than any other team they faced in the POs last year. Boston was the only series he stole and that was his first series on adrenaline that he hasn't been able replicate since. He's good but he doesn't steal playoff series so he's not irreplaceable in the context of other roster moves.

 

[g00n]

Ok I'm done feeding this monster.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Ok I'm done feeding this monster.

Which one?

 

[RandyHolt]

Cookie?

I would be interested to see Holts loffs counterparts collective stats to compare vs his. They will have the edge in wins, but I am curious about the SV%. If they are comparable to his, was it because our offense choked?

 

[txpd]

Also noteworthy Grubby has 1.67 GAA and 940% he has better stats then Holtby this season

against Buffalo and Vancouver and Colorado and such.

 

[Sam Spade]

No team is going to trade a franchise defenseman or center for a franchise goalie when Ben Bishop is a UFA and the Penguins are desperate to ditch Fleury. Getting ideal value for top flight goaltenders isn't a thing that can happen until the expansion draft(s) pass and the goalie market settles down.

This.

Caps are setup perfectly in net. Holtby, if they lose Grubs to Vegas, Vanecek becomes the backup, then Samsanov when Holtby's contract is up.

 

[Raikkonen]

Btw, Kulikov is UFA this year and left handed top-4 D. Strange that he isn't in discussion as Alzner's successor yet.

 

[twabby]

Btw, Kulikov is UFA this year and left handed top-4 D. Strange that he isn't in discussion as Alzner's successor yet.

He'd be an option but he's not particularly good defensively and his injury history is a bit concerning. It would depend on his price tag. If the Capitals decide to replace Orpik, I'd see him more as an Orpik replacement on the third pairing than an Alzner replacement.

 

[twabby]

Doing a little more research into the Alzner decision, I think it's really important to understand exactly how good both Niskanen and Alzner have been throughout their careers apart from each other.

Here are a list of Niskanen's partners, along with some stats for the Niskanen/[Partner] pairing:

(note: all stats are 5v5, score, zone, and venue adjusted from corsica.hockey)

Partner|Season|TOI|Rel.CF%|Rel.FF%|Rel.GF%
KARLIS.SKRASTINS|2009-2011|761.99|2.03|1.97|-2.17
OLLI.MAATTA|2013-2014|700.18|4.81|3.54|7.89
DARRYL.SYDOR|2008-2009|626|3.14|3.23|-6.31
DERYK.ENGELLAND|2010-2014|592.06|1.02|-0.61|3.14
MATTIAS.NORSTROM|2007-2008|564.12|-2.15|-2|-1.48
SERGEI.ZUBOV|2007-2009|559.77|3.07|1.37|6.84
KRIS.LETANG|2010-2014|533.61|3.02|2.13|-18.24
BROOKS.ORPIK|2011-2017|479.26|-0.15|-0.28|6.77
MARK.FISTRIC|2008-2011|449.68|7.1|5.72|15.42
TREVOR.DALEY|2007-2011|424.22|0.38|-0.15|-8.16

Aside from Letang and Orpik (depending on how you feel about him), Niskanen has had some pretty mediocre to bad defensive partners throughout his career and yet he has been able to elevate the team's underlying shot attempt percentages (and in aggregate goals for percentages) while alongside these players, with the exception of Mattias Nordstrom.

And here are the Alzner/[Partner] pairings:

Partner|Season|TOI|Rel.CF%|Rel.FF%|Rel.GF%
JOHN.CARLSON|2010-2017|3491.06|-0.83|-0.41|-0.15
MIKE.GREEN|2008-2015|1026.36|-1.22|-1.65|-8.06
MILAN.JURCINA|2008-2010|381.29|-0.42|0.26|-27.53
DENNIS.WIDEMAN|2011-2012|278.97|-1.93|-1.75|13.08
JEFF.SCHULTZ|2009-2012|154.92|-5.32|-9.44|-27.51
JOHN.ERSKINE|2009-2011|140.9|-5.09|-5.83|-9.99
TOMAS.KUNDRATEK|2012-2013|137.11|-0.73|-0.08|-20.01
STEVE.OLEKSY|2012-2014|125.33|1.31|2.66|13.54
DMITRY.ORLOV|2011-2016|90.68|-5.31|-2.4|6.78

Alzner is the exact opposite. Aside from a short period with Steve Oleksy, the Capitals have generally fared worse with an Alzner pairing on the ice than when the pairing was off the ice in terms of both shot percentages and goal percentages. This includes a lot of time alongside Carlson and Green, both of whom are at least adequate at driving shot and goal differentials (and in Green's case very good).

And here are Alzner and Niskanen's stats together:

Partner|Season|TOI|Rel.CF%|Rel.FF%|Rel.GF%
Niskanen and Alzner Together|2014-2017|3214.43|0.34|0.36|-2.44

From Niskanen's point of view, these are very lackluster numbers compared to his career even when he was alongside such notables as Karlis Skrastins and Olli Maatta. From Alzner's point of view, these are notable improvements even from his time when alongside Carlson and Mike Green (and most of his other partners).

The obvious conclusion (to me at least) based on the data above is that Niskanen absolutely carries Alzner when they are on the ice together. It just makes less and less sense to pay Alzner big bucks when he has consistently been a drag on 5v5 performance.

 

[trick9]

Also noteworthy Grubby has 1.67 GAA and 940% he has better stats then Holtby this season

Facing offensive juggernauts such as Buffalo twice (29th in GF), Colorado (30th in GF), Vancouver (22th in GF), Carolina (17th in GF, loss) and Columbus who they also lost in OT to. He has zero wins in games against top-20 offenses.

 

[txpd]

I cant take the anti Alzner program anymore. OR the years of whining that will come after he is extended, because he will be extended.

I have made a chassis adjustment the ride should be smoother now.

 

[Jags]

If you look at his playoff stats closer you get 2 playoff series vs the Islanders and Flyers were outclassed by the caps that boosted them. He could never edge out the Rangers (whose skaters weren't superior to ours, usually subpar or neck in neck but they had Lundqvist who really does consistently steal PO series) and couldn't edge out Murray and the Penguins.

A goalie can't win a playoff series by himself. Holtby's play in that series was good enough to win it. That is undeniable. His stats in the series were nearly identical to the year-long stats he accumulated to win the Vezina. He played great. Not perfect, but great.

We needed to score. You can't put that on Holtby. (mod) HE did his job, and then some. Everyone else screwed the pooch.

And your solution is to get rid of the guy that plays the best for us in the postseason. I'll say it again, because it's the point you miss most...

Braden Holtby has been our best postseason player BY FAR since the moment he first took the ice in a playoff game.


If you're trying to figure out how to win in the postseason, getting rid of your best playoff performer is the LAST thing you should do.

You look at every series we've lost in the Holtby era and unfathomably conclude that despite playing fantastically, that the losses were still somehow on him.

I get that your argument isn't just to trade him -- but specifically to trade him for an elite piece that we lack. Leaving aside the fact that that trade is likely impossible, there ARE other ways to acquire superior players. And there are even more ways to improve your team that don't involved giving away your best guys at all.

That you jump over a TON of other options and insist that trading Holtby is the way to go is hilarious. And that you continue to make the same argument even though countless other posters have done a pretty good job demonstrating why it's a stupid idea, just suggests that you're dug in and completely unable to see the merit in any opinion that isn't your own...

 

[Hivemind]

I cant take the anti Alzner program anymore. OR the years of whining that will come after he is extended, because he will be extended.

I have made a chassis adjustment the ride should be smoother now.

How dare someone present a reasoned and evidence based opinion. HOW DARE THEY. IGNORED.