Prospect Info: 6th Overall

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I do not want Mr. Krebs. He's stingy and red.

 

[DInTheB]

Zegras more skilled than dach? This a joke?

Let me rephrase.

I think Yzerman would prefer a better combo of speed and playmaking ability than Dach provides.

I misspoke on pure playmaking ability.

 

[SuperScript29]

No.

If I'm at like 10-15? Sure. But At 6, there are the top 7 guys who have been projected by everyone to go there forever who have done nothing to drop. I'm not tilted by a good performance or two at a tournament.

I don't know, the kid is sure making a great case for himself. I guess you can argue that Jost is a good comparison at that level, yet he's still struggling to break in, then again he's still 21 yo so the jury is still out.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Let me rephrase.

I think Yzerman would prefer a better combo of speed and playmaking ability than Dach provides.

I misspoke on pure playmaking ability.

If you believe that he is looking for that combo, then Krebs would garner a lot of attention. I posted about it in the U-18 thread, but Krebs would be a fantastic fit for this organization based on his character fit. Pair that with the combo of playmaking and speed he plays at, it sounds like what you are describing.

 

[SuperScript29]

If you believe that he is looking for that combo, then Krebs would garner a lot of attention. I posted about it in the U-18 thread, but Krebs would be a fantastic fit for this organization based on his character fit. Pair that with the combo of playmaking and speed he plays at, it sounds like what you are describing.

Krebs is a gamer, no question about that. What I don't like about him is the lack of visible elite talent. I suppose that argument can be made for players like Patrice Bergeron, but you can also say that about Darren Helm.

 

[Frk It]

Krebs is a gamer, no question about that. What I don't like about him is the lack of visible elite talent. I suppose that argument can be made for players like Patrice Bergeron, but you can also say that about Darren Helm.

What guys do you think have "visible elite talent" vs don't in the top 10?

 

[SuperScript29]

What guys do you think have "visible elite talent" vs don't in the top 10?

Puck skills I guess, Krebs does have a good shot, but I don't think he's projected to be a sniper. His best attributes from what I see is excellent positioning and hard work. Watch the shift by shift:


Now compare it to someone like Dach for example:


You can see that Dach has excellent puck handling skills and is a very creative player. His elite skills are evident with the way he carries the puck. While I do appreciate the hard work someone like Krebs provides, I should mention that puck possession is big. So I'd rather have someone who's not going to play that blue-collar style of hockey.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Krebs is a gamer, no question about that. What I don't like about him is the lack of visible elite talent. I suppose that argument can be made for players like Patrice Bergeron, but you can also say that about Darren Helm.

I mean when I look at Bergeron, the completeness of his game screams elite. I trust him on to shine in literally any scenario I put him in.

Krebs to me looks like his tools in the playmaking area work their way to being elite. The combination of his speed, his IQ, his sense, and his passing is what jumps out to me.

 

[SuperScript29]

I mean when I look at Bergeron, the completeness of his game screams elite. I trust him on to shine in literally any scenario I put him in.

Krebs to me looks like his tools in the playmaking area work their way to being elite. The combination of his speed, his IQ, his sense, and his passing is what jumps out to me.

Players like Bergeron don't grow on trees, he's somewhat of an outlier. Yes his completeness absolutely makes him elite, but he does it with very simple plays + very high IQ and not a whole lot of flash. 9/10 times players like that turn into 2nd/3rd liners. Bergeron is an exception because he's so good defensively and he's able to produce top-line numbers. If Krebs is projected to be that good, he would be challenging for 1st overall, not ranked in the lower end of the top-10.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Players like Bergeron don't grow on trees, he's somewhat of an outlier. Yes his completeness absolutely makes him elite, but he does it with very simple plays + very high IQ and not a whole lot of flash. 9/10 times players like that turn into 2nd/3rd liners. Bergeron is an exception because he's so good defensively and he's able to produce top-line numbers. If Krebs is projected to be that good, he would be challenging for 1st overall, not ranked in the lower end of the top-10.

You also have to be in the position to shine, which Kootenay has given Krebs exactly 0 opportunity to do this year. I don't know if you've been able to watch him play in U-18s going on right now, but watching him surrounded by talent it becomes apparent how much better than he's been able to show in the WHL this year.

 

[SuperScript29]

You also have to be in the position to shine, which Kootenay has given Krebs exactly 0 opportunity to do this year. I don't know if you've been able to watch him play in U-18s going on right now, but watching him surrounded by talent it becomes apparent how much better than he's been able to show in the WHL this year.

Again, I'm not doubting how good he is, in fact I feel like he's a safe pick. I just don't see him with top-line potential, that's all.

Also the U-18 is not exactly a good measurement, the sample size is too small to make a proper assessment.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Again, I'm not doubting how good he is, in fact I feel like he's a safe pick. I just don't see him with top-line potential, that's all.

Also the U-18 is not exactly a good measurement, the sample size is too small to make a proper assessment.

No, you're right. But if the assessment of Krebs is "wow he looks good, but Kootenay isn't good enough around him for his talents to really shine" and then U-18 gives him the skill around him and he performs, we can use the transitive property to confirm what we think we know. If A=B and B=C, then A=C. It's more of a confirmation of assessment than it is the actual assessment.

 

[SuperScript29]

No, you're right. But if the assessment of Krebs is "wow he looks good, but Kootenay isn't good enough around him for his talents to really shine" and then U-18 gives him the skill around him and he performs, we can use the transitive property to confirm what we think we know. If A=B and B=C, then A=C. It's more of a confirmation of assessment than it is the actual assessment.

Not really, I mean so far he has played 3 games in the U-18, and I can't imagine the competition is that much stronger than when he already faced in the WHL. Also what you say about him in terms of playing on a weak team has been done. Look at Nikita Sherbak as an example.

The kid is good, but clearly not #6 good.

 

[Henkka]

Yup, we finally agree on something.

If Byram is still there at 6 I think he's BPA, if not then pick a forward. But we won't see any playoff success until the D is fixed, possibly with some of the money freed up next year.

Byram would also make Cholowski available for the Trouba trade. Byram, McIsaac and DeKeyser could man the D left side for years.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I don't know, the kid is sure making a great case for himself. I guess you can argue that Jost is a good comparison at that level, yet he's still struggling to break in, then again he's still 21 yo so the jury is still out.

I think the biggest part of this is that with the crazy level of scouting we have now, particularly for the North American skaters, what a guy does in a week long tournament doesn't tilt me one way or another... unless he badly injures himself, some not prior seen lackadaisicalness shows up, or he magically is worlds faster. If a guy scores 5 goals in 3 games or 1 goal in 3 games for one tournament, it doesn't trigger me one way or another.

I guess the vast majority of the time "late movers" worry me. What materially changed for them? Why would a guy who's in the mid teens go up to the top 10?

I guess a guy like Kotkaniemi did have some things improve or ticked off some improvements in areas that would have knocked him down. It just feels like a lot of the movement at the end is recency bias or a guy managing to have an excellent IIHF or U-18 tournament.

 

[SuperScript29]

I think the biggest part of this is that with the crazy level of scouting we have now, particularly for the North American skaters, what a guy does in a week long tournament doesn't tilt me one way or another... unless he badly injures himself, some not prior seen lackadaisicalness shows up, or he magically is worlds faster. If a guy scores 5 goals in 3 games or 1 goal in 3 games for one tournament, it doesn't trigger me one way or another.

I guess the vast majority of the time "late movers" worry me. What materially changed for them? Why would a guy who's in the mid teens go up to the top 10?

I guess a guy like Kotkaniemi did have some things improve or ticked off some improvements in areas that would have knocked him down. It just feels like a lot of the movement at the end is recency bias or a guy managing to have an excellent IIHF or U-18 tournament.

I'm not a fan of the impact of this U18 either, while the performances may show something, they're still far from the big picture, which is what the prospect did the entire year.

Guys like Newhook and Caufield still did excellent all year though, so it's not just this tournament. Still, I would not take either at #6 when other players like Turcotte or Dach may be available.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Krebs is a gamer, no question about that. What I don't like about him is the lack of visible elite talent. I suppose that argument can be made for players like Patrice Bergeron, but you can also say that about Darren Helm.

I feel like I've seen a ton of talent from him. I put his playmaking up there with Dach and the best of them, for example. His stickhandling isn't elite, but he makes up for it by having excellent decisionmaking. He knows enough to put himself in situations where he doesn't need elite skill to make the play happen. I'd argue that's a skill.

But even if you're right and he doesn't have any elite skills, Larkin has taught us that elite work ethic is a gamechanger all its own. And I'd definitely say Krebs has that.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

You also have to be in the position to shine, which Kootenay has given Krebs exactly 0 opportunity to do this year. I don't know if you've been able to watch him play in U-18s going on right now, but watching him surrounded by talent it becomes apparent how much better than he's been able to show in the WHL this year.

The mindblowing thing for me has been his defensive play. My expectation was that a guy who's -50 has got to be a liability in his own zone. He's actually the best forward on Canada, defensively. He's killing 5 on 3s. He gets back every time to break up plays, and I'm talking promptly. His defensive IQ and overall game seem very good for the stage he's at.

How does -50 even happen for this kid? It seems so implausible.

 

[Gniwder]

I feel like I've seen a ton of talent from him. I put his playmaking up there with Dach and the best of them, for example. His stickhandling isn't elite, but he makes up for it by having excellent decisionmaking. He knows enough to put himself in situations where he doesn't need elite skill to make the play happen. I'd argue that's a skill.

But even if you're right and he doesn't have any elite skills, Larkin has taught us that elite work ethic is a gamechanger all its own. And I'd definitely say Krebs has that.

Larkin has elite speed though in addition to his work ethics, and he has puck skills. Elite work ethics and speed didn't make Helm a game changer (when he was younger).

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Larkin has elite speed though in addition to his work ethics, and he has puck skills. Elite work ethics and speed didn't make Helm a game changer (when he was younger).

Krebs has very close to elite speed, as well as very good puck skills. If we're talking draft years, Krebs is more skilled than Larkin was.

 

[Gniwder]

Krebs has very close to elite speed, as well as very good puck skills. If we're talking draft years, Krebs is more skilled than Larkin was.

Well then, sounds like he's got more than just work ethics.

If he's anywhere close to being as fast as Larkin, and he has more puck skills, I'd be happy with the pick. I guess I'll have to watch some film now... I want more Larkin type players on the team. Tired of watching slow vets with no puck skills.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I'm not a fan of the impact of this U18 either, while the performances may show something, they're still far from the big picture, which is what the prospect did the entire year.

Guys like Newhook and Caufield still did excellent all year though, so it's not just this tournament. Still, I would not take either at #6 when other players like Turcotte or Dach may be available.

That's exactly what I'm saying. Since we are at 6 and there are several players with better pedigrees who are certain to be on the board, I'm not looking to veer off to take Alex Newhook. If I were picking 12, I'd hope he was there, because he's probably a damn good player. But I'm not looking to take him nor am I looking to deal away an Alex Turcotte to get Newhook and some other prospect with a far lesser chance to be a top flight player.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Well then, sounds like he's got more than just work ethics.

If he's anywhere close to being as fast as Larkin, and he has more puck skills, I'd be happy with the pick. I guess I'll have to watch some film now... I want more Larkin type players on the team. Tired of watching slow vets with no puck skills.

Turcotte and Krebs would be the closest players to Larkin in the top 10. I have my doubts on Turcotte making it past 5 at this point. Same with Byram. Which is unfortunate because I like both of those guys.

 

[Hen Kolland]

The mindblowing thing for me has been his defensive play. My expectation was that a guy who's -50 has got to be a liability in his own zone. He's actually the best forward on Canada, defensively. He's killing 5 on 3s. He gets back every time to break up plays, and I'm talking promptly. His defensive IQ and overall game seem very good for the stage he's at.

How does -50 even happen for this kid? It seems so implausible.

I’ve never seen a worse group of goalies statistically speaking. That may speak to the defense in front of them, but those numbers are so bad.

 

[SuperScript29]

Turcotte and Krebs would be the closest players to Larkin in the top 10. I have my doubts on Turcotte making it past 5 at this point. Same with Byram. Which is unfortunate because I like both of those guys.

With Hughes and Kakko gone to the top two teams, it's just the three teams ahead of us. Apparently there are some health concerns with Turcotte that may make the teams ahead of us skip him, but that could also mean we do the same. Byram on the other hand is most likely a goner, I can't see him lasting to #6.