Prospect Info: 6th Overall

[newfy]

yes?

Larkins nice and all but we need someone better than him if we ever want to contend

intentionally drafting someone because they play in a similar way to him doesn't seem like a good way of getting that

I dunno if this is true. If the wings had 2 guys of Larkins calibre down the middle I'm sure they could contend. All of these guys we're talking about have more offensive skill than Larkin at draft time but is it smart to expect someone at 6th overall to be a 1st line, ~point per game, strong defensive center? Thats basically what youre hoping they become. Having a player similar doesnt mean they cant be better either.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I think they do.

Dylan Larkin had the most impressive step forward in his +1 season I’ve ever seen in a prospect to this day.

Turcotte does play a game that is strongly reminiscent of Larkin, just like he put 2 and 2 together before Larkin did. Krebs has a similar character makeup, and tools are similar, but I think the approach of getting the job done is noticeably different, which I know you and I talked about over the last day or so.

I like Turcotte a lot, but I think the chances of him being gone before 6 are pretty high, and that may actually work out as a positive if we can draft Krebs.

 

[waltdetroit]

if Cozens and Podkolzin gone before # 6 I would fill like a kid in the candy store

the spelling may be off, but I think what you wrote is a much better analogy

 

[Frk It]

Turcotte does play a game that is strongly reminiscent of Larkin, just like he put 2 and 2 together before Larkin did. Krebs has a similar character makeup, and tools are similar, but I think the approach of getting the job done is noticeably different, which I know you and I talked about over the last day or so.

I like Turcotte a lot, but I think the chances of him being gone before 6 are pretty high, and that may actually work out as a positive if we can draft Krebs.

Re: Turcotte - I still don't. He hasn't been very dominant at the U18's (compared to Hughes/Boldy/Caufield), was actually pointless today. I will wait and see where he is at on Bob's final list, but I would bet Turcotte does not go top 5 and feel pretty good about that.

 

[Henkka]

Updated my Average Rank from other ranks (Pronman + Future considerations + NHL Central scouting + my old early season average as a base + HFB mock etc.)

This seems to be clear-cut Top9 right now:

Overall	Pos	2019 draft	Size / Hand	Nationality
1	C	Jack Hughes	5'10, Left	USA
2	RW	Kaapo Kakko	6'2, Left	FIN
3	LD	Bowen Byram	6'0, Left	CAN
4	C	Kirby Dach	6'4, Right	CAN
5	C/RW	Dylan Cozens	6'3, Right	CAN
6	C	Alex Turcotte	6'0, Left	USA
7	RW	Vasili Podkolzin	5'11, Left	RUS
8	LW/C	Peyton Krebs	5'11, Left	CAN
9	C	Trevor Zegras	5'11, Left	USA

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

We'll get one guy of the Dach/Cozens/Turcotte group.

And talent drop will go like this:

1-2. Hughes/Kakko
---------------------talent drop

3-4-5-6. Byram/Dach/Cozens/Turcotte
-----------------------talent drop

7-8-9. Podkolzin/Krebs/Zegras
---------------------talent drop

10-11-12. Boldy/Newhook/Söderstrom
--------------------talent drop

13-14-15-16-17. Suzuki/Caufield/York/Kaliyev/Lavoie
-------------------talent drop

18-19-20. M.Robertson/Seider/Harley

 

[Frk It]

Updated my Average Rank from other ranks.

This seems to be clear-cut Top9 right now:

Overall	Pos	2019 draft	Size / Hand	Nationality
1	C	Jack Hughes	5'10, Left	USA
2	RW	Kaapo Kakko	6'2, Left	FIN
3	LD	Bowen Byram	6'0, Left	CAN
4	C	Kirby Dach	6'4, Right	CAN
5	C/RW	Dylan Cozens	6'3, Right	CAN
6	C	Alex Turcotte	6'0, Left	USA
7	RW	Vasili Podkolzin	5'11, Left	RUS
8	LW/C	Peyton Krebs	5'11, Left	CAN
9	C	Trevor Zegras	5'11, Left	USA

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

We'll get one guy of the Dach/Cozens/Turcotte group.

In what places is Podkolzin ranked there? I have not seen any.

 

[Zetterbeer]

In what places is Podkolzin ranked there? I have not seen any.

And since when has Podkolzin been considered less talented than Turcotte and Cozens?

 

[Henkka]

In what places is Podkolzin ranked there? I have not seen any.

- Was out of Top10 on that earlier rank which will push him down.
- HFB mock, hasn't gone yet, out of TOP6. they are going on the 7th pick.
- 5th on Pronman
- 6th on Central scouting
and some others...

I don't buy that consensus 3rd at all, when guy is a winger, hasn't been scoring lately at all, and there are all those CENTERS near him, like last year's "not even near" CENTERs (Kotkaniemi, Hayton) passed wingers like Zadina.

Everybody knows the highlights, but consistent production has been far from him.

 

[Frk It]

- HFB mock, hasn't gone yet, out of TOP6. they are going on the 7th pick.
- 5th on Pronman
- 6th on Central scouting
and some others...

I don't buy that consensus 3rd at all, when guy is a winger, hasn't been scoring lately at all, and there are all those CENTERS near him, like last year's "not even near" CENTERs (Kotkaniemi, Hayton) passed wingers like Zadina.

As of April 4th, Bob McKenzie said 8 out of 10 NHL scouts have him as the #3 player in this draft.

I’ll take that over a Hfbords mock draft or any of these other things. My opinion is similar, but scouts have different opinions than I do all the time.

 

[Henkka]

And since when has Podkolzin been considered less talented than Turcotte and Cozens?

Consistency = talent. Podkolzin lacks it.

Jurco was talented as hell. Didn't like to use it like an everydayer (Babcock-word)

 

[Henkka]

As of April 4th, Bob McKenzie said 8 out of 10 NHL scouts have him as the #3 player in this draft.

I’ll take that over a Hfbords mock draft or any of these other things. My opinion is similar, but scouts have different opinions than I do all the time.

Scouts will always bluff.

All drafting process, if discussing about it is 50% a bluff process.

That's the starting point.

They never ever ever tell any truths for anybody. Why should we believe on a crap like that, when drafts go always very much different than any ranks. Only 1-2 picks usually go like predicted.

 

[Frk It]

Scouts will always bluff.

All drafting process, if discussing about it is 50% a bluff process.

That's the starting point.

They never ever ever tell any truths for anybody. Why should we believe on a crap like that, when drafts go always very much different than any ranks. Only 1-2 picks usually go like predicted.

Why bluff when you are being polled anonymously?

I posted this earlier in this thread, but I'll say it again.

Podkolzin was Mckenzie's #3 player. The #3 player in Mckenzie's ranking has been picked in the top 5 the last 6 years in a row.

So while it's not perfect, I believe it's the best ranking we have to go off of out there. I will take that over the speculation that goes on here 10/10 times.

 

[Invictus12]

Ras was definitely a bit of a reach at 9 though, there is no denying it. While I don't agree with the person that said he would have been in the 20-25 range, I still don't think it was the right pick at 9. There were huge question marks about him heading into the draft regarding his foot-speed and offensive upside. These questions still have not been answered, and people have every right to call him a 3rd/4th liner until he proves otherwise. Heading in to the draft he was the guy I did not want, and sure enough we grabbed him.

I like Ras and hope he succeeds, I just don't see the upside in his game, and don't know if he's ever going to be an offensive contributor in the NHL.

Wasn't Ras ranked 5th among NA skaters?

 

[Invictus12]

Scouts will always bluff.

All drafting process, if discussing about it is 50% a bluff process.

That's the starting point.

They never ever ever tell any truths for anybody. Why should we believe on a crap like that, when drafts go always very much different than any ranks. Only 1-2 picks usually go like predicted.

You basing this on???....

Following your logic here, if NJ takes Hughes at first then they're a real sucker then...

 

[Frk It]

delete - duplicate

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Re: Turcotte - I still don't. He hasn't been very dominant at the U18's (compared to Hughes/Boldy/Caufield), was actually pointless today. I will wait and see where he is at on Bob's final list, but I would bet Turcotte does not go top 5 and feel pretty good about that.

I am trying to figure out the relevance of Bob's list in your mind. Is it to predict the order in which players come off the board or is it confirmation of their overall quality as prospects?

I could easily see Turcotte being the third best player to come out of this draft regardless of what Bob's friends think of him.

 

[newfy]

Wasn't Ras ranked 5th among NA skaters?

Right around there yep, I think it was 5th. He was also ranked 9th by Bob Mackenzie in the draft but for some reason we have idiots still going on about him being a reach. It makes no sense but people will think what they want to think I guess

 

[Frk It]

I am trying to figure out the relevance of Bob's list in your mind. Is it to predict the order in which players come off the board or is it confirmation of their overall quality as prospects?

I could easily see Turcotte being the third best player to come out of this draft regardless of what Bob's friends think of him.

Mostly the former. I tend to agree with your last sentence.

 

[RedWingzz]

Right around there yep, I think it was 5th. He was also ranked 9th by Bob Mackenzie in the draft but for some reason we have idiots still going on about him being a reach. It makes no sense but people will think what they want to think I guess

Who's Bob Mackenzie?

 

[Henkka]

You basing this on???....

Following your logic here, if NJ takes Hughes at first then they're a real sucker then...

On a group of almost equal guys, like these from 3 to 9. They can go in any order, not matter what the scouts say for Bob MacKenzie.

My rank is just average from other ranks. Differencies are real small, Like Byram average is 4.5 and Zegras average is 9.7

But I see 99% sure Podkolzin falling out of TOP6, because Centers are more valuable than equal level of winger. Just like Zadina did drop.

And how Kotkaniemi pick is perfect example, how trusting our own vision, your "3rd best" could be the best of all "3rds".

 

[Henkka]

Podkolzin was Mckenzie's #3 player. The #3 player in Mckenzie's ranking has been picked in the top 5 the last 6 years in a row.

Fine with that. Good for Chicago. Also good for us.

 

[Frk It]

Fine with that. Good for Chicago. Also good for us.

Yeah, I agree with your thought process on Podkolzin for the record.

But 80% of scouts still having him #3 a few weeks ago is pretty telling. So I'm going to go with that unless something changes with Mckenzie's final ranking. I could also see Chicago going with Cozens, because they reportedly wanted Hayon last year and I think Cozens is pretty similar.

There are certainly some different possibilities here for the top 5 and how things shake out.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Yeah, I agree with your thought process on Podkolzin for the record.

But 80% of scouts still having him #3 a few weeks ago is pretty telling. So I'm going to go with that unless something changes with Mckenzie's final ranking. I could also see Chicago going with Cozens, because they reportedly wanted Hayon last year and I think Cozens is pretty similar.

There are certainly some different possibilities here for the top 5 and how things shake out.

I feel like we deserve the NHL draft to be covered like the NFL draft. Give me more speculation and more coverage. More "experts".

 

[Henkka]

Yeah, I agree with your thought process on Podkolzin for the record.

But 80% of scouts still having him #3 a few weeks ago is pretty telling. So I'm going to go with that unless something changes with Mckenzie's final ranking. I could also see Chicago going with Cozens, because they reportedly wanted Hayon last year and I think Cozens is pretty similar.

There are certainly some different possibilities here for the top 5 and how things shake out.

What 80% of scouts?

It was 8 scouts (of ten).

Every team has probably 10 scouts, where everybody has a different opinion. And there's 31 teams. That Bob MacKenzie -thing was 8 scouts of ~310.

 

[Frk It]

What 80% of scouts?

It was 8 scouts (of ten).

Every team has probably 10 scouts, where everybody has a different opinion. And there's 31 teams. That Bob MacKenzie -thing was 8 scouts of ~310.

Yeah sorry, I should have said 8/10 scouts. That's misleading and agree with what you said in your 2nd paragraph.

But still, I will take even a sample size of 10 NHL scouts over most else things we have to go off of.