Prospect Info: 6th Overall Pick Moritz Seider, Defence, DEL

[MBH]

We gonna ignore that Seider is 4 inches taller... A better athlete... A better skater.

Bjornfot could have posted a similar stat line, but he does not project nearly as well at the next level. If we are going to get super fixated on stats, please at least try to add some context to them.

So you're talking about things that have nothing to do with performance.
My post was about performance and people who say a 22-point season in the AHL was "exceptional" or proves he was good at #6.

Don't twist it.

 

[MBH]

The reason why your comparison is not being responded to well is that +/- is easily affected by context, and only shows part of the picture.

1) Seider's most regular defensive partner for much of the season, particularly early on was Lindstrom - a rookie in a new country who struggled at times until he found his feet. Bjornfot's partner for most of the year was Ladue, a 27 year old who's pro career was an even split between NHL & AHL, after a full college career and the best D man in Ontario.

2) Seider's WJC showing was a massive plus, as it gave us a chance to compare him with his peers globally and he was as good as any other D in the torunament

3) From what I can find out it seems Seider got more defensive assignments playing with weaker lines, particularly early.

This is not to dismiss your wider opinion. Even looking at the stats, Seider was and remain a slight reach at #6 - although looking at others in the draft doesn't look too bad (perhaps Cozens, Knight, Newhook, Zegras & McMichael could have been better picks, but none have played pro yet, and as wings fans we all know what its like to have kids killing it in junior and then flatten out badly at the AHL level). Also Bjrornfot was a player I liked and should have gone higher. Had him ahead of Thomson, Harley and York, and had we been picking 15 ish, it would have between him and Newhook for me. So he could indeed prove to be a steal if his development is at least linear going forwards.

The comparisons you show with AHL D+1 years actually show why people are excited about Seider, and indeed why kings fans should be about Bjornfot. Liljegren was a hyped offensive D with worse point totals/ratio whose +/- is massively skewed by the strength of the Marlies D that year - I think his partner was +30 something, as were about 4 d-men in that team. Risto has problems in his own end, but has talent through the roof when one takes his physical potential into account, and perhaps if developed in a less badly run team could be a top pairing guy. He still might get there. Lindholm (same pick) was made as an immediate comparison to Seider, and the early signs are Seider has a bit more puck skill and is more physical but not quite as positionally strong. I think we'd be happy if we ended up with a more dynamic Lindholm.

When I was watching Ontario games (to watch Vilardi) I was constantly impressed by Bjornfot. Don't really remember who he was paired with and I don't think such data exists.
But he wasn't out there all the time on the PP, that's for sure.
I really don't think he's a PP kind of defenseman. Then again, I don't think that's Seider's game either.

 

[Frk It]

So you're talking about things that have nothing to do with performance.
My post was about performance and people who say a 22-point season in the AHL was "exceptional" or proves he was good at #6.

Don't twist it.

There’s more to his season than points and games played. There how many minutes he logged, how well he handled tough assignments, etc.

 

[MBH]

There’s more to his season than points and games played. There how many minutes he logged, how well he handled tough assignments, etc.

Right.
And Bjornfot was used on the PK and defensive situations.

Look, Seider had a solid first year pro at 18.
He was impressive at times.
But exceptional? Proving he was a wise choice at 6?
1) No. 2) You don't really prove anything in the AHL. I don't think his season proved anything other than this: He had a solid first year pro and handled the transition well.

 

[Bench]

Seeing the same damn guy for years split hairs about players he's barely watched just to be the voice of dissent.

 

[MBH]

Seeing the same damn guy for years split hairs about players he's barely watched just to be the voice of dissent.

Nothing about Seider?
OT to say the least.

 

[TheMule93]

Nothing about Seider?
OT to say the least.

Nothing about Seider?
OT to say the least.

 

[Frk It]

Right.
And Bjornfot was used on the PK and defensive situations.

Look, Seider had a solid first year pro at 18.
He was impressive at times.
But exceptional? Proving he was a wise choice at 6?
1) No. 2) You don't really prove anything in the AHL. I don't think his season proved anything other than this: He had a solid first year pro and handled the transition well.

This would be like saying Rossi=Byfield because they both had great seasons in the OHL.

And disregarding the fact that Byfield has much, much better tools.

I really don’t understand why you are bringing up Bjornfot ad nauseum in this thread, when that’s 1 example of many we could look at, and a guy who doesn’t protect nearly as well at the next level.

 

[MBH]

This would be like saying Rossi=Byfield because they both had great seasons in the OHL.

And disregarding the fact that Byfield has much, much better tools.

I really don’t understand why you are bringing up Bjornfot ad nauseum in this thread, when that’s 1 example of many we could look at, and a guy who doesn’t protect nearly as well at the next level.

The ONLY reason i bring up Bjornfot is to put Seider's stats in context.
The reason I bring up Bjornfot "ad nauseum" is because people are disputing the obvious relationship "ad nauseum."

I'm not here to say Bjornfot is the better prospect.
But his stats, for a guy picked 21st, throw cold water on the idea that Seider was "exceptional" or "proved he was worth 6th overall."
I brought data to the table. The only data we have.

I then brought up all the D+1 AHL defensemen since 2005 that I could find.
I compared PP points.

What data has anyone who disagreed with me used to prove their point?

Long term, by the way, I would take Seider over Bjornfot - but I think that's closer than I originally thought, for sure.
Just like I'd take Byfield over Rossie. The other factor there is age. Byfield is 11 months younger than Rossi.

 

[Martinez]

Just keep in mind that a lot of posters on here have AHL live subscriptions and some even watched his DEL games. Anyone can look at stats, which is a weird thing to judge d men by

 

[MBH]

Nothing about Seider?
OT to say the least.

I said Seider's name, at least.

 

[MBH]

Just keep in mind that a lot of posters on here have AHL live subscriptions and some even watched his DEL games. Anyone can look at stats, which is a weird thing to judge d men by

It's not a weird stat to judge a top 6 pick on at all.

 

[Hen Kolland]

The ONLY reason i bring up Bjornfot is to put Seider's stats in context.
The reason I bring up Bjornfot "ad nauseum" is because people are disputing the obvious relationship "ad nauseum."

I'm not here to say Bjornfot is the better prospect.
But his stats, for a guy picked 21st, throw cold water on the idea that Seider was "exceptional" or "proved he was worth 6th overall."
I brought data to the table. The only data we have.

I then brought up all the D+1 AHL defensemen since 2005 that I could find.
I compared PP points.

What data has anyone who disagreed with me used to prove their point?

Long term, by the way, I would take Seider over Bjornfot - but I think that's closer than I originally thought, for sure.
Just like I'd take Byfield over Rossie. The other factor there is age. Byfield is 11 months younger than Rossi.

All you have to argue on are point production and plus minus because in reality you didn’t watch either player enough to have an informed opinion.

This is why your arguments are so f***ing tired all the time. Everything is stats. Especially when you get to the AHL level where stats are so limited.

9 combined games of viewership between the two players, and 2 of the very few published stats from the AHL, and you just know better than everyone else. Got it.

 

[odin1981]

Just keep in mind that a lot of posters on here have AHL live subscriptions and some even watched his DEL games. Anyone can look at stats, which is a weird thing to judge d men by

I think it can only be done accurately when comparing pick moving offensive defensemen, but only that type of defender.

 

[newfy]

All you have to argue on are point production and plus minus because in reality you didn’t watch either player enough to have an informed opinion.

This is why your arguments are so f***ing tired all the time. Everything is stats. Especially when you get to the AHL level where stats are so limited.

9 combined games of viewership between the two players, and 2 of the very few published stats from the AHL, and you just know better than everyone else. Got it.

Its pretty pathetic eh.

Not to mention their world junior showings really show the different level of prospect Seider is as well.

 

[Red Stanley]

"magnificent." "exceptional."
Close enough.

I responded to this:


And then this:


I don't think his season in the AHL was exceptional for his age. Nor do I think it makes him look good at 6 overall. It also doesn't make him a bad pick. I certainly doesn't change my mind that we went a bit off the board to get him and that we might have passed up more dynamic players. Seider wasn't anywhere near my list at 6 - and I wanted, so badly, to draft defense. I just couldn't justify it on Broberg or Soderstrom.

There were 2 defensemen who jumped straight to the AHL as far as I know last year.
Bjorfot and Seider.
So when Dude A says "his season absolutely makes it look like a good pick" at 6, I hold up Bjornfot and say - well, now wait a minute.
Same thing with the "exceptional season"

Their seasons were virtually identical - except one was far superior in +/- - leading his team.
So, statistically, Seider wasn't exceptional at all.
And his performance makes him a good pick at 6 - then Bjornfot was a f***ing steal at 22.

It's hard to know what to make of these stats for a defenseman in a D+1 AHL season. I

Here are the other AHL D+1 years i could find since 2005.

Liljegren - 2017 17th 44 games 1-16-17 +12
Ristolainen - 2013 8th - 34 games 6-14-20 -2
Lindholm -2012 6th - 44 games 1-10-11 +5
Seider - 2019 6th - 49 games 2-20-22 -5
Bjornfot - 2019 22nd - 44 games 6-13-19 +13

Seider's AHL numbers really don't stand out in any major way at all.

Yes, but that's all statistically speaking. Good players are much more than their numbers. Granted, I haven't watched Bjornfot play, but the Griffins were a totally different team with Seider vs without him. I.e. he's shown the ability to be a real difference maker at the minor pro level, which makes me excited about his potential to be a real difference maker on the big club. Generational talent notwithstanding, what else can be expected from any draft pick?

 

[lomekian]

When I was watching Ontario games (to watch Vilardi) I was constantly impressed by Bjornfot. Don't really remember who he was paired with and I don't think such data exists.
But he wasn't out there all the time on the PP, that's for sure.
I really don't think he's a PP kind of defenseman. Then again, I don't think that's Seider's game either.

I did some digging, and from a articles written at different points of the year by Kings press, Bjornfot WAS mostly paired with LaDue. Like I said, I like Bjornfot, but he was in a more advantageous situation

 

[Frk It]

The ONLY reason i bring up Bjornfot is to put Seider's stats in context.

It’s 1 data set... 1. And if this conversation lacks anything, it’s context.

 

[Marky9er]

THN trolling us. (?)

Redoing the 2019 NHL draft: How would it unfold today? - TheHockeyNews

1. Jack Hughes, C (taken 1st by New Jersey)
2. Kaapo Kakko, RW (taken 2nd by NY Rangers)
3. Kirby Dach, C (taken 3rd by Chicago)
4. Bowen Byram, D (taken 4th by Colorado)
5. Trevor Zegras, C (taken 9th by Anaheim)
6. Spencer Knight, G (taken 13th by Florida)
7. Moritz Seider, D (taken 6th by Detroit)

 

[newfy]

THN trolling us. (?)

Redoing the 2019 NHL draft: How would it unfold today? - TheHockeyNews

Knight had a great season but not enough to jump 7 spots in the draft and ahead of Seider after the season he just had.

 

[FabricDetails]

 

[Martinez]

Can’t wait to see people whining about his hits on the general boards

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

THN trolling us. (?)

Redoing the 2019 NHL draft: How would it unfold today? - TheHockeyNews

I think at this point I take Seider over Byram at #4OA in 2019. Maybe Zegras moves up to 4 and Seider at 5, but Seider shouldn't be moving down on that list at all.

 

[The Zermanator]

Doing re-drafts 1 year later is a true exercise in pointlessness. Wonder where MacKinnon went in the early re-drafts?

 

[lidstromiscool]

Doing re-drafts 1 year later is a true exercise in pointlessness. Wonder where MacKinnon went in the early re-drafts?

I believe MacKinnon had a great rookie year but tailed off for a couple years after that? But I agree with your point, re-drafts this soon after the draft are pointless.