Prospect Info: 6th Overall Pick Moritz Seider, Defence, DEL

[Baksfamous112]

Sure thing. It's a blurry image from a video documenting the Habs draft. A keen eyed person saw it briefly flash the draft list in frame and was able to work out the top 11. The list is real. The interpretation of the list is up for debate. They obviously won't confirm/deny anything. But looks like a ranking to me.

1. Jack Hughes
2. Kappo Kakko
3. Trevor Zegras
4. Bowem Byram
5. Alex Turcotte
6. Peyton Krebs
7. Matthew Boldy
8. Vasili Podkolzin
9. Kirby Dach
10. Cole Caufield
11. Moritz Seider

The Habs may've mistakenly released their '19 draft rankings and Cole Caufield wasn't their top pick - Article - BARDOWN

Interesting how high they had Zegras. On a redraft the top 5 probably goes exactly like their list.

 

[Frk It]

Seider had the least amount of buzz around him I've seen from a top 6 pick in a long time. In hindsight, we now know several teams (like the leaked Canadians draft list), had him as the #2 defender on the board.

Well yeah, that is happens when you play in the DEL and not the CHL or a Russian/Swedish league. Kind of still the new frontier there.

I omitted Kravtsov entirely from my 2018 ranking, because I did not see any of his KHL games, and he did not participate in any tournaments for Russia in his draft year. Probably should have done that with Seider TBH.

 

[Bench]

Well yeah, that is happens when you play in the DEL and not the CHL or a Russian/Swedish league. Kind of still the new frontier there.

I omitted Kravtsov entirely from my 2018 ranking, because I did not see any of his KHL games, and he did not participate in any tournaments for Russia in his draft year. Probably should have done that with Seider TBH.

I feel you. The person you were responding to didn't seem to understand why everyone kept saying Seider didn't have much exposure and thus was ultimately a wildcard in the top end of the draft, since he was included around 20ish on many draft rankings.

We have a really passionate group of people here who consume everything available online. I'm absolutely NOT one of those, which is why I rely on you guys so much for anyone outside the top 10. And Seider just wasn't one of the names getting buzz. Not because anyone disliked him. But because nobody even had strong opinions at all.

Pierre McGuire at draft day, "Did not see this coming at all."

Even Yzerman, upon drafting him, said "I know our fans don't know much about him, but I think people can come to development camp, see him move, google him, watch him play a little bit and I think they'll be pleasantly surprised."



He talks a bit about trying to trade back but not being able to make it work and still get Seider.

 

[Frk It]

I feel you. The person you were responding to didn't seem to understand why everyone kept saying Seider didn't have much exposure and thus was ultimately a wildcard in the top end of the draft, since he was included around 20ish on many draft rankings.

We have a really passionate group of people here who consume everything available online. I'm absolutely NOT one of those, which is why I rely on you guys so much for anyone outside the top 10. And Seider just wasn't one of the names getting buzz. Not because anyone disliked him. But because nobody even had strong opinions at all.

Pierre McGuire at draft day, "Did not see this coming at all."

Even Yzerman, upon drafting him, said "I know our fans don't know much about him, but I think people can come to development camp, see him move, google him, watch him play a little bit and I think they'll be pleasantly surprised."



He talks a bit about trying to trade back but not being able to make it work and still get Seider.

Yeah, I mean this was all I could say: Prospect Info: - 6th Overall Pick Moritz Seider, Defence, DEL

And that is as someone who enjoys following draft prospects as much as anything else. So I feel you there. Pretty unique situation last year, that's for sure. Would not have envisioned a scenario where we take someone #6 in a draft and that is my response, but it happened.

Happy with how it's worked out so far. Seider has a lot of the qualities I like in a defenseman. Similar to that mold of Pieterangelo, etc.

 

[Bench]

Yeah, I mean this was all I could say: Prospect Info: - 6th Overall Pick Moritz Seider, Defence, DEL

I had some meaningful contributions myself.

It's incredible how Russian Pod looks. He's a few years from being the next Rocky villain.

Edit: I posted this in the wrong thread, lol

 

[NotLeddy]

Interesting how high they had Zegras. On a redraft the top 5 probably goes exactly like their list.

Surprised they were so low on Dach personally

 

[MBH]

Only asking, because I often misremember how I viewed drafts unless I have a post or ranking to refer back to.

This was what I had for the 17' Draft: Post your draft list

I had both Rasmussen and Seider quite a bit lower than where we took them, but the situations were different. Rasmussen I had seen plenty of, but just never really saw "it" with him to have him ranked top 10. Seider I just flat out had seen virtually none of prior to the draft, and just included him in the 20's to have him in there. I actually thought about omitting him altogether because I just knew next to nothing about him other than what others thought of him.

I fell in love with Thomas on a fluke. Grant McCagg was posting a new mock everyday. One day he posted Detroit taking Thomas. I looked him up and I couldn't believe it.
He was EXACTLY what I wanted.
A zone-entry, playmaking, hard-working, two-way center.
Filppula at worst. But maybe someone to take the torch from Datsyuk. Three years later, I think I hit that one on the nose.
Lord knows I've missed a bunch.

 

[Vector Cereal]

Sure thing. It's a blurry image from a video documenting the Habs draft. A keen eyed person saw it briefly flash the draft list in frame and was able to work out the top 11. The list is real. The interpretation of the list is up for debate. They obviously won't confirm/deny anything. But looks like a ranking to me.

1. Jack Hughes
2. Kappo Kakko
3. Trevor Zegras
4. Bowem Byram
5. Alex Turcotte
6. Peyton Krebs
7. Matthew Boldy
8. Vasili Podkolzin
9. Kirby Dach
10. Cole Caufield
11. Moritz Seider

The Habs may've mistakenly released their '19 draft rankings and Cole Caufield wasn't their top pick - Article - BARDOWN

12, 13, and 15 looks like Cozens, Broberg, and Kaliyev. I can't make out 14 - Knight maybe? Evidently, they didn't stick to this list or Krebs would be a Hab.

 

[Bench]

12, 13, and 15 looks like Cozens, Broberg, and Kaliyev. I can't make out 14 - Knight maybe? Evidently, they didn't stick to this list or Krebs would be a Hab.

Indeed. I'd imagine the Achilles injury scared them off. Or that the hand written list was how they thought the draft would go. Either way, an interesting look into a professional teams' rankings.

 

[TheMule93]

Indeed. I'd imagine the Achilles injury scared them off. Or that the hand written list was how they thought the draft would go. Either way, an interesting look into a professional teams' rankings.

Man, I never appreciated Achilles injuries until recently. I injured one of mine in February and it's still not 100% slowly getting better at least

 

[Maverick41]

Yeah, I mean this was all I could say: Prospect Info: - 6th Overall Pick Moritz Seider, Defence, DEL

And that is as someone who enjoys following draft prospects as much as anything else. So I feel you there. Pretty unique situation last year, that's for sure. Would not have envisioned a scenario where we take someone #6 in a draft and that is my response, but it happened.

Happy with how it's worked out so far. Seider has a lot of the qualities I like in a defenseman. Similar to that mold of Pieterangelo, etc.

Looking back through the first few pages of this thread seem to show just how big of an advantage people had, who were able to watch Seider a lot. At least for now the more positive attitude of people who had seen more of Moritz at the time, appears to be justified.
But even given this advantage I thought #6 was slightly high for Seider, so I am not going to fault anyone who thought this was a big reach based on the information they had available.

It was funny for me to look back at what I wrote about Seider at the time. I am generally very careful with my assessments because I don't want to overhype a player and I still do not fully trust my ability to judge a players talent and potential.

 

[raymond23]

Seider’s progression through the AHL season was pretty remarkable.

It felt like every game he just got better and better, and by the end I dare say he was dominant.

 

[Ricelund]

Seider’s progression through the AHL season was pretty remarkable.

It felt like every game he just got better and better, and by the end I dare say he was dominant.

It seems like this is how he's progressed at every level. I can't wait to see him in the NHL.

 

[MBH]

So despite media raving about Seider, Seiders dominant WJC, basically every major prospect ranking having Seider 30+ spots higher than Bjornfot and really comparable offensive numbers while being known mostly for his defense, youre going to use plus minus to say which guy had a better season. Anyone who watched Rafalski and Lidstrom play hockey should know how good of a stat plus minus is.

Says a lot about your ability to analyse a players season and how seriously people should take your opinion lol

Go through this thread and show me one instance where I've said anything that gives you license to reply so insultingly.
Keyboard warriors... sigh

 

[Vector Cereal]

Obviously the chances Byfuglien signs with Detroit are very slim, but I think he'd be one of the top 5 D Seider could learn from. To clarify, Erik Karlsson is a great defenseman but I don't think Seider could ever play that style of D. They both play so physical. Byfuglien has the big shot that Seider is missing, but they're big, aggressive righties with above average offensive ability.

With our cap space and defensive woes I'd pay a premium for 2 years of Buff.

 

[newfy]

Go through this thread and show me one instance where I've said anything that gives you license to reply so insultingly.
Keyboard warriors... sigh

If youre insulted by people calling you out for plus minus being your deciding factor between two players and being so adamant against a really good prospect then maybe steer clear of message boards. You said Bjornfot had a better season than Seider, its insulting that people have to come to this site to read that garbage to be honest.

You said he hasnt done much to make the pick look good. Anyone with half a brain can see that he just had a very solid season for a number 6 pick. Also, not a keyboard warrior.. sick of you shitting on a very good prospect because you overreacted when he was drafted. Would say the same thing in person

 

[Ezekial]

If youre insulted by people calling you out for plus minus being your deciding factor between two players and being so adamant against a really good prospect then maybe steer clear of message boards. You said Bjornfot had a better season than Seider, its insulting that people have to come to this site to read that garbage to be honest.

You said he hasnt done much to make the pick look good. Anyone with half a brain can see that he just had a very solid season for a number 6 pick. Also, not a keyboard warrior.. sick of you shitting on a very good prospect because you overreacted when he was drafted. Would say the same thing in person

Real keyboard warriors have niche opinions that they fight to the death. Sounds more like Redder than anyone tbh.

 

[MBH]

If youre insulted by people calling you out for plus minus being your deciding factor between two players and being so adamant against a really good prospect then maybe steer clear of message boards. You said Bjornfot had a better season than Seider, its insulting that people have to come to this site to read that garbage to be honest.

You said he hasnt done much to make the pick look good. Anyone with half a brain can see that he just had a very solid season for a number 6 pick. Also, not a keyboard warrior.. sick of you shitting on a very good prospect because you overreacted when he was drafted. Would say the same thing in person

Way to doubledown on your incivility.

The stats are what they are.
Seider did less than the guy selected late in round 1.
That's reality. Cope, Newf.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

Way to doubledown on your incivility.

The stats are what they are.
Seider did less than the guy selected late in round 1.
That's reality. Cope, Newf.

Plus minus is a bad stat, and using it to tout one player over another a year after they were drafted is silly to me.

 

[lilidk]

Last year I hoped we get Dach or Zegras, didn't like Podkolzin and Cozens. Did not check any Seider videos ., my reaction was who is this guy?

 

[MBH]

Plus minus is a bad stat, and using it to tout one player over another a year after they were drafted is silly to me.

Show me which AHL stats you have that are better?
We are limited by what we have and don't have.
What we have - in black and white - is this:
Bjornfot 22nd overall, considered a strong defensive defenseman.
44 games 6-13-19 +13
And his plus +13 led the team.
Seider 6th overall, considered a strong defensive defenseman
49 games 2-20-22 -5
His minus 5 was 21st out of 36 guys

Let's see what the AHL stats show us.
They give us PP numbers
Bjornfot 2-4-6
Seider 1-10-11

So Seider got 11 of 22 points on the PP.
Bjornfot got 6 of 19.

I saw about 6 Ontario games watching Vilardi.
I only watched Seider in GR three times.
Anecdotally, Bjornfot plays a smart, controlled game. I think Seider has the upside advantage because of his physical tools.
But anybody who thinks Seider outperformed Bjornfot ought to back it up with something better than "You're stupid jerk for not believing my pet prospect is as good as I think he is."

Both of these kids had promising AHL rookie campaigns.
If anyone thinks Seider had some magnificent rookie year for a 6th overall pick, then what must they think of Bjornfot's job at 22nd overall?

Is there another AHL D+1 guy we can compare?

 

[ArGarBarGar]

If anyone thinks Seider had some magnificent rookie year for a 6th overall pick, then what must they think of Bjornfot's job at 22nd overall?

This is the kind of mentality I do not understand. This argues that to be excited about Seider performing well when most of us were not sure of him at #6, this means we think that Seider has been marvelous and we believe he will project to be the best defenseman to come out of the draft?

1. Nobody is saying he had some magnificent rookie year. You are overstating the counter position by a mile.
2. There is a difference between being excited that a prospect has shown that he has a shot to be very talented and thinking that he is a for sure bet to be a top-talent in the league. Progress does not equal completion.
3. Being happy that one prospect is successful does not mean thinking that the prospect is better and/or will be better than every other comparable prospect in their draft class.

I also think that if plus/minus is the best stat you have to compare and contrast two players, you probably shouldn't be comparing and contrasting those players with such vigor in the first place.

 

[MBH]

This is the kind of mentality I do not understand. This argues that to be excited about Seider performing well when most of us were not sure of him at #6, this means we think that Seider has been marvelous and we believe he will project to be the best defenseman to come out of the draft?

1. Nobody is saying he had some magnificent rookie year. You are overstating the counter position by a mile.
2. There is a difference between being excited that a prospect has shown that he has a shot to be very talented and thinking that he is a for sure bet to be a top-talent in the league. Progress does not equal completion.
3. Being happy that one prospect is successful does not mean thinking that the prospect is better and/or will be better than every other comparable prospect in their draft class.

I also think that if plus/minus is the best stat you have to compare and contrast two players, you probably shouldn't be comparing and contrasting those players with such vigor in the first place.

"magnificent." "exceptional."
Close enough.

I responded to this:

Except for having an exceptional AHL season for his age, yeah he hasn't done shit.

And then this:

He just had a season that absolutely makes it look like a good pick at 6.

I don't think his season in the AHL was exceptional for his age. Nor do I think it makes him look good at 6 overall. It also doesn't make him a bad pick. I certainly doesn't change my mind that we went a bit off the board to get him and that we might have passed up more dynamic players. Seider wasn't anywhere near my list at 6 - and I wanted, so badly, to draft defense. I just couldn't justify it on Broberg or Soderstrom.

There were 2 defensemen who jumped straight to the AHL as far as I know last year.
Bjorfot and Seider.
So when Dude A says "his season absolutely makes it look like a good pick" at 6, I hold up Bjornfot and say - well, now wait a minute.
Same thing with the "exceptional season"

Their seasons were virtually identical - except one was far superior in +/- - leading his team.
So, statistically, Seider wasn't exceptional at all.
And his performance makes him a good pick at 6 - then Bjornfot was a f***ing steal at 22.

It's hard to know what to make of these stats for a defenseman in a D+1 AHL season. I

Here are the other AHL D+1 years i could find since 2005.

Liljegren - 2017 17th 44 games 1-16-17 +12
Ristolainen - 2013 8th - 34 games 6-14-20 -2
Lindholm -2012 6th - 44 games 1-10-11 +5
Seider - 2019 6th - 49 games 2-20-22 -5
Bjornfot - 2019 22nd - 44 games 6-13-19 +13

Seider's AHL numbers really don't stand out in any major way at all.

 

[lomekian]

"magnificent." "exceptional."

Their seasons were virtually identical - except one was far superior in +/- - leading his team.
So, statistically, Seider wasn't exceptional at all.
And his performance makes him a good pick at 6 - then Bjornfot was a f***ing steal at 22.

It's hard to know what to make of these stats for a defenseman in a D+1 AHL season. I

Here are the other AHL D+1 years i could find since 2005.

Liljegren - 2017 17th 44 games 1-16-17 +12
Ristolainen - 2013 8th - 34 games 6-14-20 -2
Lindholm -2012 6th - 44 games 1-10-11 +5
Seider - 2019 6th - 49 games 2-20-22 -5
Bjornfot - 2019 22nd - 44 games 6-13-19 +13

Seider's AHL numbers really don't stand out in any major way at all.

The reason why your comparison is not being responded to well is that +/- is easily affected by context, and only shows part of the picture.

1) Seider's most regular defensive partner for much of the season, particularly early on was Lindstrom - a rookie in a new country who struggled at times until he found his feet. Bjornfot's partner for most of the year was Ladue, a 27 year old who's pro career was an even split between NHL & AHL, after a full college career and the best D man in Ontario.

2) Seider's WJC showing was a massive plus, as it gave us a chance to compare him with his peers globally and he was as good as any other D in the torunament

3) From what I can find out it seems Seider got more defensive assignments playing with weaker lines, particularly early.

This is not to dismiss your wider opinion. Even looking at the stats, Seider was and remain a slight reach at #6 - although looking at others in the draft doesn't look too bad (perhaps Cozens, Knight, Newhook, Zegras & McMichael could have been better picks, but none have played pro yet, and as wings fans we all know what its like to have kids killing it in junior and then flatten out badly at the AHL level). Also Bjrornfot was a player I liked and should have gone higher. Had him ahead of Thomson, Harley and York, and had we been picking 15 ish, it would have between him and Newhook for me. So he could indeed prove to be a steal if his development is at least linear going forwards.

The comparisons you show with AHL D+1 years actually show why people are excited about Seider, and indeed why kings fans should be about Bjornfot. Liljegren was a hyped offensive D with worse point totals/ratio whose +/- is massively skewed by the strength of the Marlies D that year - I think his partner was +30 something, as were about 4 d-men in that team. Risto has problems in his own end, but has talent through the roof when one takes his physical potential into account, and perhaps if developed in a less badly run team could be a top pairing guy. He still might get there. Lindholm (same pick) was made as an immediate comparison to Seider, and the early signs are Seider has a bit more puck skill and is more physical but not quite as positionally strong. I think we'd be happy if we ended up with a more dynamic Lindholm.

 

[Frk It]

Way to doubledown on your incivility.

The stats are what they are.
Seider did less than the guy selected late in round 1.
That's reality. Cope, Newf.

We gonna ignore that Seider is 4 inches taller... A better athlete... A better skater.

Bjornfot could have posted a similar stat line, but he does not project nearly as well at the next level. If we are going to get super fixated on stats, please at least try to add some context to them.