Prospect Info: 43rd Overall Dylan Samberg

[Neuf]

Button's love for the Jets is always appreciated

 

[pucka lucka]

The red flag in the Ates article is this: "..He’s certainly not going to be a notable point-getter, anyhow. He’s too unwilling and limited as a shooter, and he doesn’t see offensive plays developing.”

If you don't show significant offensive talent in lower leagues how are you going to be competent with the puck with significantly shorter time to make decisions? Trouba was pretty dominant at a younger age offensively and he is only solid in the NHL. He dominated as an 18 year old in college and is a good 2 or 3 d-man now.

 

[Tasteless Beaver]

Samberg is 100% making this team.

"I should almost get a coaching fee for the drills I've been running Samberg and Pionk through"

Forbort a familiar face to many in Jets locker room

 

[Whileee]

The red flag in the Ates article is this: "..He’s certainly not going to be a notable point-getter, anyhow. He’s too unwilling and limited as a shooter, and he doesn’t see offensive plays developing.”

If you don't show significant offensive talent in lower leagues how are you going to be competent with the puck with significantly shorter time to make decisions? Trouba was pretty dominant at a younger age offensively and he is only solid in the NHL. He dominated as an 18 year old in college and is a good 2 or 3 d-man now.

I think Samberg's production has been under-appreciated. He was top 25 in the NCAA among D in points / game (0.75), in the toughest division, and with limited PP points.

Based on NHL equivalency translation factors, Samberg's point production in his D+3 season (27 per 82 games) was equivalent to Niku's first AHL season when he had 54 points (translating to 28 per 82 in NHLe).



Samberg doesn't have offensive flare, but he racks up points by pushing possession into the offensive zone and by making a lot of good decisions with the puck.

 

[truck]

Yep. He could be a missing piece this team needs. Though Chevy signing Forbort seems to suggest they may be more patient with Samberg, and have him gain some pro experience with Moose first unless he kicks the door in.

I sure hope the two aren't linked. The Jets need a good top 4 D man. Forbort isn't that guy.

On the plus side for Samberg, I highly doubt there will be an AHL season and I suspect he'll be paired with Pionk (assuming they don't add a legit top 4 D).

 

[Classic16]

Samberg is 100% making this team.

"I should almost get a coaching fee for the drills I've been running Samberg and Pionk through"

Forbort a familiar face to many in Jets locker room

I think forbort starts with pionk on the 2nd pairing for this reason. Hes clearly played with him and hopefully they have good chemistry. Samberg will get a shot on the 3rd pair and henoila being younger wont be rushed.

 

[Teemusalami204]

I think forbort starts with pionk on the 2nd pairing for this reason. Hes clearly played with him and hopefully they have good chemistry. Samberg will get a shot on the 3rd pair and henoila being younger wont be rushed.

Good points. I felt the same as soon as he was signed. We will have two very good defensive bottom pairing D ( DeMelo , Forbert) playing with our two best dmen.

Hopefully this is a recipe for success

 

[Jimmyjets]

I think forbort starts with pionk on the 2nd pairing for this reason. Hes clearly played with him and hopefully they have good chemistry. Samberg will get a shot on the 3rd pair and henoila being younger wont be rushed.

They'll be some legitimate camp battles for sure and Samberg is going to have to take it, but I don't think the Jets will have any issue waiving any of these 1 by $1M guys that are essentially glorified PTOs if he shows that he's ready.

JMo - DeMelo is a lock for the 1st pair and Pionk and Poolman are locks for the 2nd and 3rd pair RHD spots IMO.

Beaulieu won't be waived as we need him for the expansion draft so he's also in the top 7 but the question will be if he's playing or not.

To me that leaves 2 spots up for grabs and Samberg is going to have to take one from Forbert, Sbisa, Niku, Heinola, Stanley, etc. Stanley is still waiver exempt so he's an easy cut but will still be in the camp battle. Samberg and/or Heinola are only kept if they're going to play and frankly we need Sbisa in the minors as an emergency recall.

From Forbert's quote obviously he, Pionk and Samberg have been skating together but my question is who has Pionk been building chemistry with? It sounded like Forbert was putting Samberg and Pionk through the drills, which hopefully is the case.

In my view you ideally start the rookie on the 3rd pair so you can shelter him a bit while he gets used to the NHL but with the amount of guys that have made immediate impacts coming out of college recently maybe he could be playing second pair by the half way point of the season. (fingers crossed)

 

[ps241]

I think Samberg's production has been under-appreciated. He was top 25 in the NCAA among D in points / game (0.75), in the toughest division, and with limited PP points.

Based on NHL equivalency translation factors, Samberg's point production in his D+3 season (27 per 82 games) was equivalent to Niku's first AHL season when he had 54 points (translating to 28 per 82 in NHLe).



Samberg doesn't have offensive flare, but he racks up points by pushing possession into the offensive zone and by making a lot of good decisions with the puck.

It will be interesting to see it play out finally.

I was an original pre draft Samberg fan and to date he has been the only 2nd round pick I have asked for and received (in our imaginary world). That being said I would love for us to land one more proven top 4 D asset to fill the second pair Left side for now. I don’t think it’s going to take Dylan long but I would love him to start out sheltered on the bottom pair with Poolman.

This is going to be a weird whacky season with so many unknowns starting with will there even be hockey? If we get going “ the next step for Samberg” is one of the subplots that I will be following closely.

 

[ps241]

They'll be some legitimate camp battles for sure and Samberg is going to have to take it, but I don't think the Jets will have any issue waiving any of these 1 by $1M guys that are essentially glorified PTOs if he shows that he's ready.

JMo - DeMelo is a lock for the 1st pair and Pionk and Poolman are locks for the 2nd and 3rd pair RHD spots IMO.

Beaulieu won't be waived as we need him for the expansion draft so he's also in the top 7 but the question will be if he's playing or not.

To me that leaves 2 spots up for grabs and Samberg is going to have to take one from Forbert, Sbisa, Niku, Heinola, Stanley, etc. Stanley is still waiver exempt so he's an easy cut but will still be in the camp battle. Samberg and/or Heinola are only kept if they're going to play and frankly we need Sbisa in the minors as an emergency recall.

From Forbert's quote obviously he, Pionk and Samberg have been skating together but my question is who has Pionk been building chemistry with? It sounded like Forbert was putting Samberg and Pionk through the drills, which hopefully is the case.

In my view you ideally start the rookie on the 3rd pair so you can shelter him a bit while he gets used to the NHL but with the amount of guys that have made immediate impacts coming out of college recently maybe he could be playing second pair by the half way point of the season. (fingers crossed)

At the risk of getting way ahead of myself wouldn’t it be nice if Samberg has a good season? It would be a luxury to have 5 D men that are top 4 caliber? I still think the Jets will try to land another proven top 4 asset this off season.

 

[voyageur]

It will be interesting to see it play out finally.

I was an original pre draft Samberg fan and to date he has been the only 2nd round pick I have asked for and received (in our imaginary world). That being said I would love for us to land one more proven top 4 D asset to fill the second pair Left side for now. I don’t think it’s going to take Dylan long but I would love him to start out sheltered on the bottom pair with Poolman.

This is going to be a weird whacky season with so many unknowns starting with will there even be hockey? If we get going “ the next step for Samberg” is one of the subplots that I will be following closely.

I like that. If the Jets can't find a 2nd pairing d-man in a Roslovic trade,

Morrissey-De Melo
Forbort-Pionk
Samberg-Poolman
Beaulieu-Sbisa

Gives room for Samberg to move up, and Forbort can compete with Beaulieu for the bottom pairing, #6 d-man, if he shows himself to be ready for some heavy minutes.

If you go by metrics maybe you use Morrissey-De Melo as your top PK unit, Forbort-Poolman as the 2nd, with Samberg as a replacement, having to earn the steady reps with success. But that's a situation where Morrissey could eat up 27 minutes a night easily. And if he went down well there is no potential #1LD. Until Heinola come across the pond it would be a pretty patchy defense. Which explains why there is an attempt to upgrade.
--------------------
Maybe Stanley, Kovacevic, Nogier in an expanded roster situation, with players like Chisholm and Green getting playing time either in the ECHL or Europe with no A.

Another defenseman puts Samberg into likely the #9/10 role and it's hard to see him getting ice until all of Forbort, Beaulieu, Poolman and Sbisa have been injured or exhausted, especially without playing in the minors to get the coach's attention. There's only so many impressions you can make at practice.

 

[RabidOne]

Good points. I felt the same as soon as he was signed. We will have two very good defensive bottom pairing D ( DeMelo , Forbert) playing with our two best dmen.

Hopefully this is a recipe for success

Didn’t Demelo play on the top pair with Chabot in Ottawa?

 

[10Ducky10]

Didn’t Demelo play on the top pair with Chabot in Ottawa?

Lots of Sens' fans said Chabot played better when paired with DeMelo.

 

[garret9]

Good points. I felt the same as soon as he was signed. We will have two very good defensive bottom pairing D ( DeMelo , Forbert) playing with our two best dmen.

Hopefully this is a recipe for success

DeMelo and Forbort are both defensive first dmen but DeMelo is more of a #4 and Frorbort a #6/7 oon good teams. Jets in part brought DeMelo in to push the top 4, while Forbort as a depth guy. Forbort helps defense but hurts offense; DeMelo helps defense but slightly does better than treading water on offense.

 

[Whileee]

DeMelo and Forbort are both defensive first dmen but DeMelo is more of a #4 and Frorbort a #6/7 oon good teams. Jets in part brought DeMelo in to push the top 4, while Forbort as a depth guy. Forbort helps defense but hurts offense; DeMelo helps defense but slightly does better than treading water on offense.

 

[garret9]

View attachment 372841

Agreed but I'm looking at full body of work and you always have variance with even these numbers.

EW Career xGAR for each (which IMO covers defenders better than GAR):
Forbort -8.8 O, 7.3 D
DeMelo 2.7 O, 6.6 D

Looking at HockeyViz DeMelo improves both xG in O and D equally, but has a negative shooter talent.

The biggest difference between the models is:
1) HV gives more credit on offense to forwards than defenders when events happen
2) HV/EW have differences in priors (which is why EW has more variance in year-to-year than HV)

Not saying either is better as I don't think that has been tested but that's what I read in their career results.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Samberg isn't going to blow the door off offensively but he isn't some black hole either.

I have been strong on this guy since they drafted him. Thought he played wonderful at the WJC for the US and every time I watched him play in college he was strong I couldn't wait to get him to the Jets. Every time he has to step up he does. He went from High School to College to playing in the World Juniors. He logged a ton of minutes everywhere he goes. Coaches love him. I see no reason that doesn't happen here. He is also 6'5 220 pounds and can skate. I think Maurice is going to love him and I think he plays with Pionk at the start of next season and I think he plays 15 years in the NHL as a top 4 guy

 

[GeorgeJETson]

View attachment 372841

Agreed but I'm looking at full body of work and you always have variance with even these numbers.

EW Career xGAR for each (which IMO covers defenders better than GAR):
Forbort -8.8 O, 7.3 D
DeMelo 2.7 O, 6.6 D

Looking at HockeyViz DeMelo improves both xG in O and D equally, but has a negative shooter talent.

The biggest difference between the models is:
1) HV gives more credit on offense to forwards than defenders when events happen
2) HV/EW have differences in priors (which is why EW has more variance in year-to-year than HV)

Not saying either is better as I don't think that has been tested but that's what I read in their career results.

Interesting insights.

By the look of things, Forbort might be more useful as a 3rd pairing/depth D man who will be useful on the PK?

 

[garret9]

Interesting insights.

By the look of things, Forbort might be more useful as a 3rd pairing/depth D man who will be useful on the PK?

Depends on his back. He hasn't been as good since his injury, IMO.

Forbort is a good fit on the Jets for a depth defender and has some decent upside if he improves back to his old, but still just a depth guy. Jets need Samberg and Heinola to hit the ground running, again IMO.

 

[rubikscube]

Early morning training camp start time doesn't bother Samberg

Paul Friesen unsurpsingly being an absolute ****
"We'll respect your wishes and not ask you about it" *asks follow up question about it*

I like how Samberg handled himself in this interview

 

[Mathil8]

Early morning training camp start time doesn't bother Samberg

Paul Friesen unsurpsingly being an absolute ****
"We'll respect your wishes and not ask you about it" *asks follow up question about it*

I like how Samberg handled himself in this interview

Holy shit Paul Friesen. Should get his access revoked for crap like that.

 

[tantrum]

Button's love for the Jets is always appreciated

meh. Button knows you win more friends (or in his case gigs) with honey. He over pumps lots of players and prospects, if you listen to him on Toronto's station he's pumping TO's prospects, Vancouver = Vancouver prospects.
It's nice for him to always be so positive and it's why he's on all kinds of different segments, but you also have to take his honey with a grain of salt.

 

[Al Camino]

meh. Button knows you win more friends (or in his case gigs) with honey. He over pumps lots of players and prospects, if you listen to him on Toronto's station he's pumping TO's prospects, Vancouver = Vancouver prospects.
It's nice for him to always be so positive and it's why he's on all kinds of different segments, but you also have to take his honey with a grain of salt.

Good point.

 

[Al Camino]

I like that. If the Jets can't find a 2nd pairing d-man in a Roslovic trade,

Morrissey-De Melo
Forbort-Pionk
Samberg-Poolman
Beaulieu-Sbisa

Gives room for Samberg to move up, and Forbort can compete with Beaulieu for the bottom pairing, #6 d-man, if he shows himself to be ready for some heavy minutes.

If you go by metrics maybe you use Morrissey-De Melo as your top PK unit, Forbort-Poolman as the 2nd, with Samberg as a replacement, having to earn the steady reps with success. But that's a situation where Morrissey could eat up 27 minutes a night easily. And if he went down well there is no potential #1LD. Until Heinola come across the pond it would be a pretty patchy defense. Which explains why there is an attempt to upgrade.
--------------------
Maybe Stanley, Kovacevic, Nogier in an expanded roster situation, with players like Chisholm and Green getting playing time either in the ECHL or Europe with no A.

Another defenseman puts Samberg into likely the #9/10 role and it's hard to see him getting ice until all of Forbort, Beaulieu, Poolman and Sbisa have been injured or exhausted, especially without playing in the minors to get the coach's attention. There's only so many impressions you can make at practice.

I appricate your optomism but I suspect either Beaulieu and/or Sbisa are ahead of him in pecking order if past experience counts for anything. Remember Trouba dragged Stuart around the ice for 3 years before he moved up in the line up.

 

[Hunter368]

Ok, we've seen Niku couple games, Heinola once, Stanley few times........I'm eager to see Samberg. I wonder if they are holding Heinola & Samberg in reserves a bit until absolutely needed to back fill injuries and hoping not to burn a year of ELC.

Either way, I just want to see this kid play on the Jets soon. Excited