Prospect Info: 43rd Overall Dylan Samberg

[Huffer]

Ok, we've seen Niku couple games, Heinola once, Stanley few times........I'm eager to see Samberg. I wonder if they are holding Heinola & Samberg in reserves a bit until absolutely needed to back fill injuries and hoping not to burn a year of ELC.

Either way, I just want to see this kid play on the Jets soon. Excited

Me too, I've been excited about this player for a while. And his camp reports sounded good. Due to the length of time now since his last games and the teams getting more 'up to speed" I wonder if the Jets plan is to first let him get his legs with the Moose first, and then have him fill in later in the season.

 

[Hunter368]

Me too, I've been excited about this player for a while. And his camp reports sounded good. Due to the length of time now since his last games and the teams getting more 'up to speed" I wonder if the Jets plan is to first let him get his legs with the Moose first, and then have him fill in later in the season.

This year levels of excitement to see players play was:

1) Laine, now PLD
2) Heinola/Samberg
3) Cole P

So yeh I'm damn excited to see Samberg play, but you might be right. Plus Heinola had a huge advantage of playing a bunch of high skill games at the WJC & PMO commented on that.......where as Samberg didn't have that so they might be thinking of giving him more time on the Moose to shack off the rust and get back into game shape and used to game speed.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

I wouldn’t mind a rotation of every couple games with Heinola, Stanley and Samberg

 

[Gil Fisher]

I wouldn’t mind a rotation of every couple games with Heinola, Stanley and Samberg

would it kill us if Bo-Lou sat now and then as well?

 

[buggs]

would it kill us if Bo-Lou sat now and then as well?

Has he reached his games played to qualify for the expansion draft? If so, 100% agree.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

I wouldn’t mind a rotation of every couple games with Heinola, Stanley and Samberg

 

[voyageur]

would it kill us if Bo-Lou sat now and then as well?

Beaulieu is once again the leader in +/- on defense, as he was last year, which is likely not coincidental watching him play, and now sports the best PK metrics on the team, with the most minutes, among d-men who have played significant minutes in that role. I don't get why it's dead horse to beat on this guy, when the results are there.

The Jets aren't a developmental team. They play to win games. And putting out the best roster players available is how you do that.

There's no tangible evidence that Samberg is better than Beaulieu, the preseason scrimmages did not indicate that either. Beaulieu's probably evolved into a safe enough player to remain in the lineup, at this point of his career. His decision making is much better than his Montreal days. He's also the toughest player on the team after Lowry, who seems to be evolving away from a goon role, as good hockey players tend to do.

There's no race to get Samberg into the lineup. Definitely not a race to get Heinola into the lineup. If they followed every other d-man drafted by the Jets (other than Trouba) they would get a significant taste of the minors to help their development. That's the likely route, as the model has paid dividends.

I'm looking forward to getting all of Samberg, Stanley, and Heinola into the Jets lineup, at some point, but I would be skeptical of that timetable being now. Stanley looks more mature. The analytic info is conflicting on Heinola, as one would expect, with a young player, still maturing. Samberg will get his chance, and when he does then we will be able to have a proper analysis of where he is at. I'd be inclined to believe that management and coaching will get it right with the development of these pivotal young players.

 

[10Ducky10]

I don't get why it's dead horse to beat on this guy, when the results are there.

The Jets aren't a developmental team. They play to win games. And putting out the best roster players available is how you do that.

There's no tangible evidence that Samberg is better than Beaulieu, the preseason scrimmages did not indicate that either. Beaulieu's probably evolved into a safe enough player to remain in the lineup, at this point of his career. His decision making is much better than his Montreal days. He's also the toughest player on the team after Lowry, who seems to be evolving away from a goon role, as good hockey players tend to do.

There's no race to get Samberg into the lineup. Definitely not a race to get Heinola into the lineup. If they followed every other d-man drafted by the Jets (other than Trouba) they would get a significant taste of the minors to help their development. That's the likely route, as the model has paid dividends.

I'm looking forward to getting all of Samberg, Stanley, and Heinola into the Jets lineup, at some point, but I would be skeptical of that timetable being now. Stanley looks more mature. The analytic info is conflicting on Heinola, as one would expect, with a young player, still maturing. Samberg will get his chance, and when he does then we will be able to have a proper analysis of where he is at. I'd be inclined to believe that management and coaching will get it right with the development of these pivotal young players.

I think it's because he is horrible in his own end with the puck and not all that good without it either. Maurice likes him because of the PK and Chevy likes him because of the XD.
I wouldn't mind seeing a rotation of Slamberg, Heinola and Stanley. With injuries possibly/probably on the horizon, it might be the prudent thing to do.

 

[voyageur]

I think it's because he is horrible in his own end with the puck and not all that good without it either. Maurice likes him because of the PK and Chevy likes him because of the XD.
I wouldn't mind seeing a rotation of Slamberg, Heinola and Stanley. With injuries possibly/probably on the horizon, it might be the prudent thing to do.

Horrible in his own end is a gross exageration. If he was horrible in his own end he'd be a - player, quite simply. He does make mistakes, but he's been good at puck movement, I think, and especially suppressing the rush. I'd put money that he probably stands up at the blueline better than any d-man on the roster, if analytics looked at such plays. . Almost every stat supports him being in the lineup, if you eliminate game 1, with Niku. His first game on his offside looked a little messy too, but I suspect he'll be on his regular side when Poolman comes back.

I don't think rotation is a way to generate consistency. Consistency comes from repetition. On ice communication is important. I liked what I saw from Beaulieu-Stanley and I'd have more time for a bigger physical pairing, that is a different animal than the top two pairings.

But I see no need to rush these kids. There's the shiny new toy syndrome among some of the fanbase, that every young player is going to be an improvement from a vet, but I haven't seen that actually effectuated yet, although Stanley did bring things to the team that Sbisa could not.

I'd be trying to start Samberg off on the Moose with some heavy minutes, see how he handles them. See how he handles PKing as a pro before I give him the proclamation of being a better alternative to a proven player. I'd be intrigued with Heinola on that top pair with Morrissey, reverberating with the experienced Beaulieu-De Melo pairing to lean on as well. To balance the workload. But it's going to be one rookie at a time, I suspect, for much of the season, unless injury requires change. Rookie success against Ottawa is no guarantee against tougher teams, which are coming up in the schedule.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

I wouldn’t mind a rotation of every couple games with Heinola, Stanley and Samberg

would it kill us if Bo-Lou sat now and then as well?

Beaulieu is playing fine.

More importantly he needs to appear in 5 more games & that can't come fast enough.

There's a delicate game being played in the background here that could have massive effects on the franchise if certain conditions aren't met.

The Jets need to expose at least one defensemen. As of this moment none of Beaulieu, Stanley, Niku, Green or Nogier have enough games played to qualify to meet that criteria. Should none of these player meet their required game played, the Jets are exposing one of Morrissey, Demelo or Pionk.

The Jets will continue to run Beaulieu for the next 5 games without question. Once that mark is met we can begin focussing our attention on icing the best defence.

Until then the future of the franchise is at risk. Mess around with this situation and we're a season ending injury away for Beaulieu that will require for Stanley to appear in 21 more games.

Defensemen get hurt all the time. The Jets put all their eggs into playing Stanley for 20 games and what if he gets injured? 20 games from now they'll be 29 games left in the season and suddenly Niku will have to play in 24 of them, or Green in 27 or Nogier in 27.

This is really no joking matter. Is this ultimate bad luck scenario likely? No.

But is it probable? Most certainly.

Let's entertain no thoughts about not playing Beaulieu for the next 5 games and get this matter over and done with before a major issue rears its head.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Of course the correct answer is "it wouldn't kill us to sit Bo-Lou now and then".

He'll get his games.

 

[Bob E]

Beaulieu is playing fine.

More importantly he needs to appear in 5 more games & that can't come fast enough.

There's a delicate game being played in the background here that could have massive effects on the franchise if certain conditions aren't met.

The Jets need to expose at least one defensemen. As of this moment none of Beaulieu, Stanley, Niku, Green or Nogier have enough games played to qualify to meet that criteria. Should none of these player meet their required game played, the Jets are exposing one of Morrissey, Demelo or Pionk.

The Jets will continue to run Beaulieu for the next 5 games without question. Once that mark is met we can begin focussing our attention on icing the best defence.

Until then the future of the franchise is at risk. Mess around with this situation and we're a season ending injury away for Beaulieu that will require for Stanley to appear in 21 more games.

Defensemen get hurt all the time. The Jets put all their eggs into playing Stanley for 20 games and what if he gets injured? 20 games from now they'll be 29 games left in the season and suddenly Niku will have to play in 24 of them, or Green in 27 or Nogier in 27.

This is really no joking matter. Is this ultimate bad luck scenario likely? No.

But is it probable? Most certainly.

Let's entertain no thoughts about not playing Beaulieu for the next 5 games and get this matter over and done with before a major issue rears its head.

The Jets could also acquire a dman later in the year that meets the XD criteria for the sole purpose of exposing said player in XD. Not ideal since you give up assets however small to get that player. But it is an option.

 

[Jet]

Beaulieu is once again the leader in +/- on defense, as he was last year, which is likely not coincidental watching him play, and now sports the best PK metrics on the team, with the most minutes, among d-men who have played significant minutes in that role. I don't get why it's dead horse to beat on this guy, when the results are there.

The Jets aren't a developmental team. They play to win games. And putting out the best roster players available is how you do that.

There's no tangible evidence that Samberg is better than Beaulieu, the preseason scrimmages did not indicate that either. Beaulieu's probably evolved into a safe enough player to remain in the lineup, at this point of his career. His decision making is much better than his Montreal days. He's also the toughest player on the team after Lowry, who seems to be evolving away from a goon role, as good hockey players tend to do.

There's no race to get Samberg into the lineup. Definitely not a race to get Heinola into the lineup. If they followed every other d-man drafted by the Jets (other than Trouba) they would get a significant taste of the minors to help their development. That's the likely route, as the model has paid dividends.

I'm looking forward to getting all of Samberg, Stanley, and Heinola into the Jets lineup, at some point, but I would be skeptical of that timetable being now. Stanley looks more mature. The analytic info is conflicting on Heinola, as one would expect, with a young player, still maturing. Samberg will get his chance, and when he does then we will be able to have a proper analysis of where he is at. I'd be inclined to believe that management and coaching will get it right with the development of these pivotal young players.

I'd agree about Beaulieu. I thought he had his best game in a long while against the Oilers on Tuesday - but no love for the guy. People like the flash and promise of young players, but in reality, guys like Beaulieu and Forbort can stabilize goals against, and with our goaltending and forward group, that is bad news for the NHL.

I think the one thing that hurts Beau is that he tends to have some 'oh shit' moments, and they are not subtle moments like getting turned or misssing an assignment. They are of the magnificiently bad variety, and that what tends to stick with fans. If he could ever cut that out of his game he would be a very desirable staple on any D corps.

Kind of reminds me of Bogosian in that respect. He'd play well for long stretches of games or in game, and then do something like trip over himself, propelling the puck into our own slot from behind the net right to an opposition forward.

 

[Jet]

I think that people who want to see Samberg play this year are going to be quite disappointed. Unless we have significant injuries to our D, I think he plays the year in MB.

It follows the philosophy of the Jets to put players in the position to succeed. Give him a year on the Moose to get use to pro size and speed, learn our systems, and play big minutes in all situations. Then, next year, he's equipped to come in and earn a spot on the team.

The Jets are in no rush to bring him on the big squad, nor should they be. We have good depth on D right now, and we have players who have earned the right to play themselves onto the team because they have been in the system and look to be doing what the org wants them to (Stanley and Heinola). It makes more sense for us organizationally to spread out these players a bit.

What I am hoping is that they start plugging Heinola in for Stanley a bit more, rotating them based on opponent. I do believe that Heinola will end up on the Moose though, getting the same type of opportunity as Samberg to play the systems, get big minutes and succeed at the pro level.

I think the Jets are going to pick up a top 2 D at the TDL and really take a run at this thing. Lots of season left to be played but this team is starting to look like a dark horse.

 

[Whileee]

I'd agree about Beaulieu. I thought he had his best game in a long while against the Oilers on Tuesday - but no love for the guy. People like the flash and promise of young players, but in reality, guys like Beaulieu and Forbort can stabilize goals against, and with our goaltending and forward group, that is bad news for the NHL.

I think the one thing that hurts Beau is that he tends to have some 'oh shit' moments, and they are not subtle moments like getting turned or misssing an assignment. They are of the magnificiently bad variety, and that what tends to stick with fans. If he could ever cut that out of his game he would be a very desirable staple on any D corps.

Kind of reminds me of Bogosian in that respect. He'd play well for long stretches of games or in game, and then do something like trip over himself, propelling the puck into our own slot from behind the net right to an opposition forward.

Agree that the main issue for Beaulieu is the inconsistency, and the penchant for mind-numbingly bad plays that cost goals or penalties. You can almost see it coming with him, as though he gets the yips. I was at one game and I could see him getting into that zoned out space and remarked to my friend that Beaulieu (who had the puck behind the net) was poised for one of his give-aways. Sure enough, he inexplicably gave the puck to an opponent, leading to a goal against at a crucial time. You can undo a lot of good play by making really bad mistakes that lead to goals. He's been a bit more consistent this season, but there is still a shift or two every game that puts the Jets into full survival mode. It's unnerving.

 

[Oilpeg]

The Jets could also acquire a dman later in the year that meets the XD criteria for the sole purpose of exposing said player in XD. Not ideal since you give up assets however small to get that player. But it is an option.

An extension for Poolman or Forbort would also solve the problem without giving up an asset. Poolman re-signing is also a likely thing to happen anyway.

 

[Jet]

Agree that the main issue for Beaulieu is the inconsistency, and the penchant for mind-numbingly bad plays that cost goals or penalties. You can almost see it coming with him, as though he gets the yips. I was at one game and I could see him getting into that zoned out space and remarked to my friend that Beaulieu (who had the puck behind the net) was poised for one of his give-aways. Sure enough, he inexplicably gave the puck to an opponent, leading to a goal against at a crucial time. You can undo a lot of good play by making really bad mistakes that lead to goals. He's been a bit more consistent this season, but there is still a shift or two every game that puts the Jets into full survival mode. It's unnerving.

The one that always makes me laugh is last season where I think it was Morrissey fired a switch pass over to him in our own zone. He missed the pass, it bounced off the boards, he missed the rebound, the puck went right into the slot and then he fell down.

It looked like someone snuck a beer leaguer on the ice

 

[voyageur]

I'd agree about Beaulieu. I thought he had his best game in a long while against the Oilers on Tuesday - but no love for the guy. People like the flash and promise of young players, but in reality, guys like Beaulieu and Forbort can stabilize goals against, and with our goaltending and forward group, that is bad news for the NHL.

I think the one thing that hurts Beau is that he tends to have some 'oh shit' moments, and they are not subtle moments like getting turned or misssing an assignment. They are of the magnificiently bad variety, and that what tends to stick with fans. If he could ever cut that out of his game he would be a very desirable staple on any D corps.

Kind of reminds me of Bogosian in that respect. He'd play well for long stretches of games or in game, and then do something like trip over himself, propelling the puck into our own slot from behind the net right to an opposition forward.

I was at the game where Bogo magnificently delivered the GWG to Corey Perry with seconds left. Yes those kind of plays do leave an impression. But I wonder what people are really seeing. Because Maurice has seen something else with him. He hasn't been pulled from the lineup, in my recollection, since he came out for the playoffs in 2019, replacing Morrissey when he was injured. I mean I see the same things, those lapses, but I also see a guy, who uses physicality, and clears the crease pretty well. And it's delusional to think that the Jets can win with just small puck moving d-men, because there's times you have to man up and battle in your own zone. The playins last year showed this. Although Beaulieu did have some of those wtf moments, he was probably one of the better ones out there. He's improved significantly from the inconsistent player he was with Montreal, that bounced him around. It's nice to see underdogs like him and Stanley having success.

 

[Whileee]

I was at the game where Bogo magnificently delivered the GWG to Corey Perry with seconds left. Yes those kind of plays do leave an impression. But I wonder what people are really seeing. Because Maurice has seen something else with him. He hasn't been pulled from the lineup, in my recollection, since he came out for the playoffs in 2019, replacing Morrissey when he was injured. I mean I see the same things, those lapses, but I also see a guy, who uses physicality, and clears the crease pretty well. And it's delusional to think that the Jets can win with just small puck moving d-men, because there's times you have to man up and battle in your own zone. The playins last year showed this. Although Beaulieu did have some of those wtf moments, he was probably one of the better ones out there. He's improved significantly from the inconsistent player he was with Montreal, that bounced him around. It's nice to see underdogs like him and Stanley having success.

I'll also point out that Maurice gave us the catastrophe that was the Stuart-Harrison D pair, and for some reason thought that was okay. Maurice (and/or Huddy) make some strange lineup decisions, particularly in favour of experience and "grit". It's not unique, but it can be maddening.

 

[voyageur]

I'll also point out that Maurice gave us the catastrophe that was the Stuart-Harrison D pair, and for some reason thought that was okay. Maurice (and/or Huddy) make some strange lineup decisions, particularly in favour of experience and "grit". It's not unique, but it can be maddening.

To be fair Stuart-Harrison came at a time when we had no defense due to injury, rehab or whatever.

If you take out the first game Beaulieu had with Niku though, and look at the sum of his work, he'd been a guarantee to be in the lineup. By every conceivable metric, no? He's outperforming De Melo in fact in a lot of areas. It's the PK where Beaulieu is going to earn his bread, and it's no guarantee he'll survive the season. But by being in the lineup we can drive more minutes out of Morrissey, which to me is a win-win. And so far he's been one of the guys that Maurice has leaned on to close out games, with younger players in the lineup. I'm a grit guy, as you can tell. At least in a support role. You need your Ian Cole's and Ron Hainsey's. Hell you can even win with Bogo these days in the hockey world.

Where I would criticize Maurice is he sticks to the plan, even when the plan isn't working. Like Kulikov should have been taken out against St. Louis in 2019, in my opinion to draw Beaulieu in. Last year, there were also no adjustments defensively throughout the series, even if Kulikov-Pionk were being owned. So if Beaulieu were struggling, I'd expect Maurice to stick with him. But I don't think he has been.

As this is the Samberg thread, I think Samberg's first opportunity is going to come with injury, which we should be thankful hasn't been an issue to date.

 

[Whileee]

Basically, I'd like to see Samberg in the lineup now. I think he'll be as good or better than Beaulieu or Stanley now, and will have time to become better for the playoffs and future seasons.

 

[Gumbyman2]

I think Samberg's production has been under-appreciated. He was top 25 in the NCAA among D in points / game (0.75), in the toughest division, and with limited PP points.

Based on NHL equivalency translation factors, Samberg's point production in his D+3 season (27 per 82 games) was equivalent to Niku's first AHL season when he had 54 points (translating to 28 per 82 in NHLe).



Samberg doesn't have offensive flare, but he racks up points by pushing possession into the offensive zone and by making a lot of good decisions with the puck.

I think there is attainable potential for Samberg to become a 40 to 50+ point per year Dman. Once he is comfortable with the speed, skill line after line, team after team and his playing partner(s) and teammates tendancies, etc along with confidence and coaches giving him more responsibilitues, playing time in offensive situations and with top forwards.
Look at his Jets roster mentor, in practises and since training camp, Derek Forbort is begin to excell in more opportune role here, stepping from just a defensive guru, stalwart. He has at least 4 assists, all them being play creating, smart and sharp passes setting up a scorer who was able to score! I see the same potential with Samberg who is nowhere as far removed from more important icetime and play expectation of high school/ juniors and world junior hockey days which allowed for more dman stepping up and rushing the puck deep into offense zone.
Dylan showed alot of moxy for offensive playmaking and o-zone wizardry with the puck before college hockey.
He was coached at UM-D to play smart, strong defensive zone/ coverage first to prepare for full defensive understanding, strong positional and making reads smart to prepare for the NHL as he was drafted already out of high school. The offense ability is there. It will come down the road. Sooner would be nice but best he adjusts to this next ( the best) level strongly defensively in smart plays safely moving pucks out of harms way and consistently to teammates to start attacks back the other way. AKA Josh Morrissey path.

 

[Gumbyman2]

This year levels of excitement to see players play was:

1) Laine, now PLD
2) Heinola/Samberg
3) Cole P

So yeh I'm damn excited to see Samberg play, but you might be right. Plus Heinola had a huge advantage of playing a bunch of high skill games at the WJC & PMO commented on that.......where as Samberg didn't have that so they might be thinking of giving him more time on the Moose to shack off the rust and get back into game shape and used to game speed.

Also
, Samberg was recovering much of off-season recovering from a dangerous and psyche altering car accident last August! It was a heavy emotional burden to work through and move on from inside his own thoughts, never mind the physical setback and pain of an egregiously injured leg just before entering your 1st pro hockey season! He has been held back to some degree by all this and great that tge Jets gaven't forced too much and are not expecting too much asap!

 

[voyageur]

Basically, I'd like to see Samberg in the lineup now. I think he'll be as good or better than Beaulieu or Stanley now, and will have time to become better for the playoffs and future seasons.

While that may be true I think there's been signs that the Jets are very cautious in the mental development of players. Beaulieu has been through the process of being a top prospect, who wasn't developed properly, by another organization, and fell off the map. The approach with Stanley has been cautious, slowly building up his confidence, starting with a 6 minute night, and getting more minutes each games, getting that comfort level to be able to feel like he is ready for the pro game. The flip side is Samberg comes in, and has a poor performance, then gets demoted. And then he is back at square one. I'd be surprised if Samberg doesn't start in the A, succeed, while getting a real game taste of PKing as a pro, and then when injury strikes, he's more mentally ready for the next progression. So the progression is gradual, and less sudden. I'm hoping sky's the limit for this kid, but never in the history of hockey has it been a bad decision to let a player get his feet wet through AHL development.

 

[bumblebeeman]

I think Beaulieu is good on the bottom pairing. I am more concerned with Forbort on the 2nd pairing and am really hoping Samberg (or Heinola) can fill that role long term, and bump Forbort down.