Prospect Info: 3rd Overall Pick. Stutzle vs Byfield

[Cat Herder]

This is kind of similar to when Pierre was asked the same question and hyped up Byfield as raw, powerful and skilled, and didn't really say much at all about Stutzle except that germany is starting to produce hockey players

interesting...

What Dorion interview was that? There was one with Mclean and Friedman I saw that he praised both equally

 

[Sensenmann]

I see those smart little plays from Lundell, but I don't really see them from Holtz. He does have a good motor, and he does forecheck hard, but I would not say he is a good forechecker.

In my opinion, the forwards I have ahead of him just do more. I think they have more potential to be the driver of a line. I think they are going to be the guys carrying pucks in, beating players off the rush, using skill to open up play off the cycle/down low, and they are all better playmakers. Holtz is going to be more of an off puck guy, finding soft spots in the offensive zone to get his shot off. That does not mean he is a bad player, but I just think this draft has six forwards that are better prospects. The only defender I have over him is Drysdale.

I don't know of any full data set for what you are asking, but Scouching tracks that type of data. I don't subscribe because it is expensive, but he has the data for certain players published.

Here is the link:

Appreciate your answers.

I took a longer look at the stat sheet and came to the conclusion that those statistics aren`t reliable.
Here are examples as to why:

1. Lundell`s corsi is given at 61,9% at the official site of the finnish league and in my understanding should be equivalent to the Sat% column where he is listed at 51,09%.
Player stats | Advanced | Regular season 2019-2020 | Stats | Liiga
2. Holtz`s PassThreat% (Percentage of OffThreat deriving from dangerous pass attempts) in the Scouching sheet is given at 81,82%, which would mean he has to be spoon fed his High+MediumDangerShot attempts . That doesn`t add up with the video evidence as to how Holtz scores his goals and his shooting percentage of over 16%. Scouching`s claim that he is taking a lot LowDangerShotAttempts would mean he is mainly sniping from outside the circle, which is false I think.
3. The TopSpeed column - Lundell and Raymond almost at the same speed, Stützle and Rossi at the same speed, Perfetti faster than Stützle.
I`m aware that acceleration and TopSpeed are different things and videos may be somehow misleading but those are some highly suspicious stats.
(4. Stützle`s Shot rating a 1C compared to Holtz`s shot rating a 1F, Lundell`s shot rating a 2B. He does give explanations for his rating (often based on his stats) but those seem to be way off.)

In Holtz`s video, if I heard it correctly, he is saying they only scouted a certain amount of games. Which could explain the variance in those statistics, if they derived them from only those games. As a whole Scouching is far from objective, which his statistics seem to imply.

Regarding Holtz`s "little plays", I was watching videos of him and Raymond on the national team and at first I was of the impression that the main line driver was obviously Raymond (I still think he is moreso than Holtz) but at second glance often it was Holtz who changed the angle of attack, created a gap, etc. for Raymond to break through. I didn`t find the vids when I was looking for them now, if I do I`ll share them.
What makes you think Holtz isn`t a good forechecker? Is he too late to the puck? Going unnecessary ways? Low success rate of winning the puck? Because I guess I could agree to these points somewhat. Yet forechecking at the most parts isn`t an individual effort. If someone is forcing a pass and a second player is able to anticipate and intercept, those are two parts of a functional forecheck. I felt with Raymond he had a tenacious forechecker as a partner so they succeded more often in comparison to his games in the SHL.

Better Line Drivers:

Stützle, Laf, Raymond

Of Byfield´s 32 goals almost half of them (estimation!) where him driving the net unchallenged and finishing an easy pass from the outside, those aren´t going to happen in the NHL. One example why Byf as the main line driver has me a little cautious and I think he´ll need a playmaker like Stützle or Raymond on his line to succeed. While you could say the same about Holtz, I think he´s more versatile and will be effective with a bigger variety of linemates.

Rossi and Perfetti are better line drivers at the junior level but unless they´ll drastically improve their agility and overall speed I don´t see it translate at the higher level.

Lundell´s skating with the puck is too stationary, he´ll need players with a strong cycle and board game on his line, I guess.

Would you expand on
- Carrying pucks in
- Beating players on the rush
- Opening up play?

Thanks again.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

Both are first liners most likely with Stutzle having the slight edge of being the safer pick in that regard. I wouldn’t be surprised if Byfield tops out as a strong 2nd line Center but i also wouldn’t be surprised if he turns out to be the better player down the line and turn into a player similar to Malkin/Staal

 

[Ice-Tray]

Man, I just want the draft to happen already... hope everyone is doing well.

 

[ijif]

Appreciate your answers.

I took a longer look at the stat sheet and came to the conclusion that those statistics aren`t reliable.
Here are examples as to why:

1. Lundell`s corsi is given at 61,9% at the official site of the finnish league and in my understanding should be equivalent to the Sat% column where he is listed at 51,09%.
Player stats | Advanced | Regular season 2019-2020 | Stats | Liiga
2. Holtz`s PassThreat% (Percentage of OffThreat deriving from dangerous pass attempts) in the Scouching sheet is given at 81,82%, which would mean he has to be spoon fed his High+MediumDangerShot attempts . That doesn`t add up with the video evidence as to how Holtz scores his goals and his shooting percentage of over 16%. Scouching`s claim that he is taking a lot LowDangerShotAttempts would mean he is mainly sniping from outside the circle, which is false I think.
3. The TopSpeed column - Lundell and Raymond almost at the same speed, Stützle and Rossi at the same speed, Perfetti faster than Stützle.
I`m aware that acceleration and TopSpeed are different things and videos may be somehow misleading but those are some highly suspicious stats.
(4. Stützle`s Shot rating a 1C compared to Holtz`s shot rating a 1F, Lundell`s shot rating a 2B. He does give explanations for his rating (often based on his stats) but those seem to be way off.)

In Holtz`s video, if I heard it correctly, he is saying they only scouted a certain amount of games. Which could explain the variance in those statistics, if they derived them from only those games. As a whole Scouching is far from objective, which his statistics seem to imply.

Regarding Holtz`s "little plays", I was watching videos of him and Raymond on the national team and at first I was of the impression that the main line driver was obviously Raymond (I still think he is moreso than Holtz) but at second glance often it was Holtz who changed the angle of attack, created a gap, etc. for Raymond to break through. I didn`t find the vids when I was looking for them now, if I do I`ll share them.
What makes you think Holtz isn`t a good forechecker? Is he too late to the puck? Going unnecessary ways? Low success rate of winning the puck? Because I guess I could agree to these points somewhat. Yet forechecking at the most parts isn`t an individual effort. If someone is forcing a pass and a second player is able to anticipate and intercept, those are two parts of a functional forecheck. I felt with Raymond he had a tenacious forechecker as a partner so they succeded more often in comparison to his games in the SHL.

Better Line Drivers:

Stützle, Laf, Raymond

Of Byfield´s 32 goals almost half of them (estimation!) where him driving the net unchallenged and finishing an easy pass from the outside, those aren´t going to happen in the NHL. One example why Byf as the main line driver has me a little cautious and I think he´ll need a playmaker like Stützle or Raymond on his line to succeed. While you could say the same about Holtz, I think he´s more versatile and will be effective with a bigger variety of linemates.

Rossi and Perfetti are better line drivers at the junior level but unless they´ll drastically improve their agility and overall speed I don´t see it translate at the higher level.

Lundell´s skating with the puck is too stationary, he´ll need players with a strong cycle and board game on his line, I guess.

Would you expand on
- Carrying pucks in
- Beating players on the rush
- Opening up play?

Thanks again.

I don't really watch Scouching videos. I watched them last year, and I watched one or two this year. I don't like them. I think his analysis is a little vague, his breakdowns of each category seem a bit weird, and sometimes his video clips do not show what he thinks they show. With the above being said, he does not watch every game, and that is why I said it is not a complete data set.

If you see those little plays made by Holtz, that is great, and I can't argue against it. I just don't see it. If you find the videos, feel free to show me. I will watch them.

The reason I don't think he is a great forechecker is that he seems to only know one pace, and he does not angle well. What I find is that he gets to his player quickly and forces that player to make a decision, but since his angle and pacing are not good, the forced decision is not that hard to make, and the execution is not too hard for the defender. Overall, I like that he puts the effort in. Most young guys are not good at defence, but a team can work with effort and build upon it.

I just want to be clear on what I mean by a line driver. What I mean by line driver is somewhat of a spectrum. Let's just say we are talking about top-line forwards. We can, in some sense, measure how well a player drives a top-line by measuring what level of teammates are needed for player X to drive isolated GF%. Better teammates needed would indicate a weaker line-driver. For example, we know Mark Stone is a tremendous line driver because he has already shown he can play on a league-worst team, carrying two rookies, and still drive GF% better than basically anyone else in the league. Most players, even the ones that score 90+ points, would get their teeth kicked in the same situation.

You can't just compare Byfield and Holtz straight across. Byfield is younger, and RAE is a real thing. Byfield is a three-line puck carrier, and he probably will be in the NHL. I'm not sure if Holtz will be a two-line puck carrier in the NHL. His deception in entering zones often leads to him getting rubbed out on the boards, and I don't think he has the one-on-one skill to beat multiple defenders skating down the ice. Byfield's cycle game will also be better due to his size, skating, and puck skill combination. You are not drafting Byfield for the player he is. You are drafting him for the player he can become. This is true for every player, but I think it is more true for Byfield.

I don't buy Rossi's skating complaints. I have never thought he was a bad skater. I think Rossi will drive GF% to a higher degree than Holtz simply because Rossi will be one of the few players at the top of the draft that will actually provide positive even-strength defence value. Most of the top guys will be below replacement level in terms of defence. This is why models like players Couturier, Bergeron, and Stone. They provide very good offence, and they provide very good defence.

Perfetti is not a great skater now, but I think it is fixable, and he is an absolute wizard in the OZ. To use a basketball term, I view him as a half-court player. Statistically, he is great. He is a dual-threat. He can score against different levels of competition, and he generates a good amount of ixG, so he is not getting lucky. He is a great shooter that generates many great chances. I don't think Holtz or Perfetti will be great defensive players, but Perfetti is a more complete offensive player, so he should be able to push even-strength offence to a greater degree, and that should make Perfetti the more impactful player.

Carrying pucks in should be pretty self-explanatory. How well can you skate up the ice with the puck? How many forecheckers can you beat? How many lines can you carry the puck over? For example, I think Laf, Stutzle, Raymond, and Byfield are the only forwards that project as three-line puck carriers in the NHL. They will, relative to others, consistently be able to take the puck from the DZ to the OZ. All the other top guys are one to two-line puck carriers. Of course, puck carrying is not all that matters. Foudy is a three-line puck carrier, but I am not going to draft him over Holtz. In the end, all I care about is the overall results, but if we are projecting, being able to carry the puck should help a player drive a line.

I won't talk about Lundell, because I have him ranked lower than Holtz.

The other two things can be lumped into "create something out of nothing". For example. A guy like Stutzle or Rossi can use his edges, hands, smarts, and vision to shake defenders on the boards, and that creates an opening in play. Both these players also have exceptional passing skills that will open up play. On the other hand, Holtz is the guy that will find the open space, but he is not directly creating the open space.

Raymond can use his ability to cut laterally while pulling a toe drag to open up the middle of the ice for a great chance. Lafreniere does this as well. I just don't see Holtz as a guy with that kind of refined skill.

I guess I view the guys ahead of him as more able to create something out of nothing. Relatively speaking, they will be the ones to breakdown the defence. Holtz will find the crack in the defence, but he won't be the one creating it.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Me too, I grew up in Germany. (technically West Germany)

Ich auch, ich bin auch in Westdeutschland aufgewachsen

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

pretty decisive

 

[WORLDSTARHIPHOP]

So blessed to have a top 3 pick in a draft that can produce a 20 page thread on #2 vs #3

Imagine when we got this return someone told you it'd end up pretty much being a #2 + #5 pick in such a deep draft

 

[supsens]

Appreciate your answers.

I took a longer look at the stat sheet and came to the conclusion that those statistics aren`t reliable.
Here are examples as to why:

1. Lundell`s corsi is given at 61,9% at the official site of the finnish league and in my understanding should be equivalent to the Sat% column where he is listed at 51,09%.
Player stats | Advanced | Regular season 2019-2020 | Stats | Liiga
2. Holtz`s PassThreat% (Percentage of OffThreat deriving from dangerous pass attempts) in the Scouching sheet is given at 81,82%, which would mean he has to be spoon fed his High+MediumDangerShot attempts . That doesn`t add up with the video evidence as to how Holtz scores his goals and his shooting percentage of over 16%. Scouching`s claim that he is taking a lot LowDangerShotAttempts would mean he is mainly sniping from outside the circle, which is false I think.
3. The TopSpeed column - Lundell and Raymond almost at the same speed, Stützle and Rossi at the same speed, Perfetti faster than Stützle.
I`m aware that acceleration and TopSpeed are different things and videos may be somehow misleading but those are some highly suspicious stats.
(4. Stützle`s Shot rating a 1C compared to Holtz`s shot rating a 1F, Lundell`s shot rating a 2B. He does give explanations for his rating (often based on his stats) but those seem to be way off.)

In Holtz`s video, if I heard it correctly, he is saying they only scouted a certain amount of games. Which could explain the variance in those statistics, if they derived them from only those games. As a whole Scouching is far from objective, which his statistics seem to imply.

Regarding Holtz`s "little plays", I was watching videos of him and Raymond on the national team and at first I was of the impression that the main line driver was obviously Raymond (I still think he is moreso than Holtz) but at second glance often it was Holtz who changed the angle of attack, created a gap, etc. for Raymond to break through. I didn`t find the vids when I was looking for them now, if I do I`ll share them.
What makes you think Holtz isn`t a good forechecker? Is he too late to the puck? Going unnecessary ways? Low success rate of winning the puck? Because I guess I could agree to these points somewhat. Yet forechecking at the most parts isn`t an individual effort. If someone is forcing a pass and a second player is able to anticipate and intercept, those are two parts of a functional forecheck. I felt with Raymond he had a tenacious forechecker as a partner so they succeded more often in comparison to his games in the SHL.

Better Line Drivers:

Stützle, Laf, Raymond

Of Byfield´s 32 goals almost half of them (estimation!) where him driving the net unchallenged and finishing an easy pass from the outside, those aren´t going to happen in the NHL. One example why Byf as the main line driver has me a little cautious and I think he´ll need a playmaker like Stützle or Raymond on his line to succeed. While you could say the same about Holtz, I think he´s more versatile and will be effective with a bigger variety of linemates.

Rossi and Perfetti are better line drivers at the junior level but unless they´ll drastically improve their agility and overall speed I don´t see it translate at the higher level.

Lundell´s skating with the puck is too stationary, he´ll need players with a strong cycle and board game on his line, I guess.

Would you expand on
- Carrying pucks in
- Beating players on the rush
- Opening up play?

Thanks again.

Byfield scoring from breaking down the other teams D or finding open ice are how many goals are scored I have no idea why you think that wouldn’t translate to the NHL. It is way harder to score in the NHL but most goals scored on 17 year old goalies would not find the back of the net in the NHL.
Finding open ice is an art in itself and most top goal scorers seem to have that gift.

 

[SENATOR]

Dorion's draft record is disastrous. None of his draftees are in NHL yet. I do not count Tkachuk, he was not scouted by Dorion, but delivered to him. If Dorion will draft Byfield at number 3, it would be laughable. LA will draft Stutzle, no doubt about it.

 

[foggyvisor]

Dorion's draft record is disastrous. None of his draftees are in NHL yet. I do not count Tkachuk, he was not scouted by Dorion, but delivered to him. If Dorion will draft Byfield at number 3, it would be laughable. LA will draft Stutzle, no doubt about it.

What's your top 6?

 

[Suprmnjl]

Why cant we package, 5,islanders first and 3 seconds and leave the draft with byfield and stutzle? How much would we be willing to pay for those 2?

 

[bert]

Why cant we package, 5,islanders first and 3 seconds and leave the draft with byfield and stutzle? How much would we be willing to pay for those 2?

Not that much.

 

[edguy]

Why cant we package, 5,islanders first and 3 seconds and leave the draft with byfield and stutzle? How much would we be willing to pay for those 2?

That is way too much.

I might package 5+NYI 1st+a prospect (Like Abramov) for 2 but even then I'd be hesitant

 

[guyzeur]

How wrong this GM got White over Koneckny or Lazar over Mantha - not holding my breath.

Between being right on Tkachuk/Zadina vs White-Koneckny or Lazar-Mantha, I'm ecstatic he got it right when it matters most!!!

I'm happy for you you're living a life where you're always right or can blame someone else when you're not.

Be in peace my friends

 

[LeProspector]

I went with Byfield, if he played the full season, he scored at a 125 point pace.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Dorion's draft record is disastrous. None of his draftees are in NHL yet. I do not count Tkachuk, he was not scouted by Dorion, but delivered to him. If Dorion will draft Byfield at number 3, it would be laughable. LA will draft Stutzle, no doubt about it.

Karlsson, Smith, Grant, Borowiecki, Silfverberg, Lehner, Hoffman, Wiercioch, Cowen, Wideman over 2 drafts as head of Amateur Scouting...

Stone, Chabot, Zibanejad, White, Pageau, Dzingel, Wolanin, Ceci, Jaros, Chlapik, Hogberg, Harpur, Claesson, Lajoie, Noesen, Brown, Lazar as Dir of Player Personel/Ass. GM

Formenton, Batherson, Tkachuk with NHL games since he became GM; plenty more to come. Not many teams with tons of NHLers drafted and developed in the last 3 years...

EDIT: if you were to make a current team out of Dorions Ottawa draft picks:

Hoffman - Zibanejad - Stone
Tkachuk - Pageau - Batherson
Dzingel - White - Silfverberg
Formenton - Grant - Noesen
Smith, Lazar, Chlapik

Chabot - Karlsson
Wolanin - Ceci
Claesson - Borowiecki
Lajoie, Jaros, Harpur

Lehner
Hogberg

Not bad!

 

[Cosmix]

Man, I just want the draft to happen already... hope everyone is doing well.

its the anticipation that is enticing. Or so I am told.

 

[guyzeur]

Dorion's draft record is disastrous. None of his draftees are in NHL yet. I do not count Tkachuk, he was not scouted by Dorion, but delivered to him. If Dorion will draft Byfield at number 3, it would be laughable. LA will draft Stutzle, no doubt about it.

Why would it be laughable that Byfield is drafted no 3? You don't like him?

Do you know the role of the GM vs the role of Scouting Director?

 

[guyzeur]

its the anticipation that is enticing. Or so I am told.

Another 3.5 months to wait.

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

Between being right on Tkachuk/Zadina vs White-Koneckny or Lazar-Mantha, I'm ecstatic he got it right when it matters most!!!

I'm happy for you you're living a life where you're always right or can blame someone else when you're not.

Be in peace my friends

Way to miss the entire point of the post. It was simply a rebuttal to the poster that says that the board doesn't know anything and the GMs are always right.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Between being right on Tkachuk/Zadina vs White-Koneckny or Lazar-Mantha, I'm ecstatic he got it right when it matters most!!!

I'm happy for you you're living a life where you're always right or can blame someone else when you're not.

Be in peace my friends

I’m still waiting for all your apologies for when after Whites first WJC I was like “you know guys, he doesn’t exactly jump off the screen I dono about this guy”. And it was months of “burrowsaurus doesn’t like White because he doesn’t dangles burrowsaurus only likes danglers if you don’t dangle you can’t be a great NHLer”.

screw you guys. I’m going home.

 

[guyzeur]

Way to miss the entire point of the post. It was simply a rebuttal to the poster that says that the board doesn't know anything and the GMs are always right.

Never happened to me before, sorry I didn't read post.

Peace my friend.

 

[playasRus]

It is obvious who the #2 player is. Should be anyway. It’s stutzle.
I didn’t know enough about them earlier on to come to that conclusion but scouts who have been watching them a long time will have.
Stutzle will go #2

That's the main reason I wanted 2OA vs 3OA. They both seem great but I'm sure our scouts have a preference and project one ahead of the other. Would rather they pick their guy than hope he falls. Even if scouts assessment might be wrong.

Could also be a case of both GMs wanting to hide their cards from the rest of the group.

Seems a lot of GMs act a bit coy and throw out false signals at draft time. Could also be LA hoping Dorion will give them a freebie to pass on Stuzle, since Pierre has a history of handing out assets to get his guy in the draft.

"We want Stutzle, if you want him, trade us 3OA and a 2nd round pick" when really they want Byfield? I'd probably play that game if I was a GM

 

[Hale The Villain]

pretty decisive
View attachment 352155

Closest poll I think I've ever seen with that many votes.

Surprising that Kings fans are overwhelmingly in favour of Byfield.

Dorion can't really make a wrong decision. Either one at 3 is the easy choice.