Appreciate your answers.
I took a longer look at the stat sheet and came to the conclusion that those statistics aren`t reliable.
Here are examples as to why:
1. Lundell`s corsi is given at 61,9% at the official site of the finnish league and in my understanding should be equivalent to the Sat% column where he is listed at 51,09%.
Player stats | Advanced | Regular season 2019-2020 | Stats | Liiga
2. Holtz`s PassThreat% (Percentage of OffThreat deriving from dangerous pass attempts) in the Scouching sheet is given at 81,82%, which would mean he has to be spoon fed his High+MediumDangerShot attempts . That doesn`t add up with the video evidence as to how Holtz scores his goals and his shooting percentage of over 16%. Scouching`s claim that he is taking a lot LowDangerShotAttempts would mean he is mainly sniping from outside the circle, which is false I think.
3. The TopSpeed column - Lundell and Raymond almost at the same speed, Stützle and Rossi at the same speed, Perfetti faster than Stützle.
I`m aware that acceleration and TopSpeed are different things and videos may be somehow misleading but those are some highly suspicious stats.
(4. Stützle`s Shot rating a 1C compared to Holtz`s shot rating a 1F, Lundell`s shot rating a 2B. He does give explanations for his rating (often based on his stats) but those seem to be way off.)
In Holtz`s video, if I heard it correctly, he is saying they only scouted a certain amount of games. Which could explain the variance in those statistics, if they derived them from only those games. As a whole Scouching is far from objective, which his statistics seem to imply.
Regarding Holtz`s "little plays", I was watching videos of him and Raymond on the national team and at first I was of the impression that the main line driver was obviously Raymond (I still think he is moreso than Holtz) but at second glance often it was Holtz who changed the angle of attack, created a gap, etc. for Raymond to break through. I didn`t find the vids when I was looking for them now, if I do I`ll share them.
What makes you think Holtz isn`t a good forechecker? Is he too late to the puck? Going unnecessary ways? Low success rate of winning the puck? Because I guess I could agree to these points somewhat. Yet forechecking at the most parts isn`t an individual effort. If someone is forcing a pass and a second player is able to anticipate and intercept, those are two parts of a functional forecheck. I felt with Raymond he had a tenacious forechecker as a partner so they succeded more often in comparison to his games in the SHL.
Better Line Drivers:
Stützle, Laf, Raymond
Of Byfield´s 32 goals almost half of them (estimation!) where him driving the net unchallenged and finishing an easy pass from the outside, those aren´t going to happen in the NHL. One example why Byf as the main line driver has me a little cautious and I think he´ll need a playmaker like Stützle or Raymond on his line to succeed. While you could say the same about Holtz, I think he´s more versatile and will be effective with a bigger variety of linemates.
Rossi and Perfetti are better line drivers at the junior level but unless they´ll drastically improve their agility and overall speed I don´t see it translate at the higher level.
Lundell´s skating with the puck is too stationary, he´ll need players with a strong cycle and board game on his line, I guess.
Would you expand on
- Carrying pucks in
- Beating players on the rush
- Opening up play?
Thanks again.
I don't really watch Scouching videos. I watched them last year, and I watched one or two this year. I don't like them. I think his analysis is a little vague, his breakdowns of each category seem a bit weird, and sometimes his video clips do not show what he thinks they show. With the above being said, he does not watch every game, and that is why I said it is not a complete data set.
If you see those little plays made by Holtz, that is great, and I can't argue against it. I just don't see it. If you find the videos, feel free to show me. I will watch them.
The reason I don't think he is a great forechecker is that he seems to only know one pace, and he does not angle well. What I find is that he gets to his player quickly and forces that player to make a decision, but since his angle and pacing are not good, the forced decision is not that hard to make, and the execution is not too hard for the defender. Overall, I like that he puts the effort in. Most young guys are not good at defence, but a team can work with effort and build upon it.
I just want to be clear on what I mean by a line driver. What I mean by line driver is somewhat of a spectrum. Let's just say we are talking about top-line forwards. We can, in some sense, measure how well a player drives a top-line by measuring what level of teammates are needed for player X to drive isolated GF%. Better teammates needed would indicate a weaker line-driver. For example, we know Mark Stone is a tremendous line driver because he has already shown he can play on a league-worst team, carrying two rookies, and still drive GF% better than basically anyone else in the league. Most players, even the ones that score 90+ points, would get their teeth kicked in the same situation.
You can't just compare Byfield and Holtz straight across. Byfield is younger, and RAE is a real thing. Byfield is a three-line puck carrier, and he probably will be in the NHL. I'm not sure if Holtz will be a two-line puck carrier in the NHL. His deception in entering zones often leads to him getting rubbed out on the boards, and I don't think he has the one-on-one skill to beat multiple defenders skating down the ice. Byfield's cycle game will also be better due to his size, skating, and puck skill combination. You are not drafting Byfield for the player he is. You are drafting him for the player he can become. This is true for every player, but I think it is more true for Byfield.
I don't buy Rossi's skating complaints. I have never thought he was a bad skater. I think Rossi will drive GF% to a higher degree than Holtz simply because Rossi will be one of the few players at the top of the draft that will actually provide positive even-strength defence value. Most of the top guys will be below replacement level in terms of defence. This is why models like players Couturier, Bergeron, and Stone. They provide very good offence, and they provide very good defence.
Perfetti is not a great skater now, but I think it is fixable, and he is an absolute wizard in the OZ. To use a basketball term, I view him as a half-court player. Statistically, he is great. He is a dual-threat. He can score against different levels of competition, and he generates a good amount of ixG, so he is not getting lucky. He is a great shooter that generates many great chances. I don't think Holtz or Perfetti will be great defensive players, but Perfetti is a more complete offensive player, so he should be able to push even-strength offence to a greater degree, and that should make Perfetti the more impactful player.
Carrying pucks in should be pretty self-explanatory. How well can you skate up the ice with the puck? How many forecheckers can you beat? How many lines can you carry the puck over? For example, I think Laf, Stutzle, Raymond, and Byfield are the only forwards that project as three-line puck carriers in the NHL. They will, relative to others, consistently be able to take the puck from the DZ to the OZ. All the other top guys are one to two-line puck carriers. Of course, puck carrying is not all that matters. Foudy is a three-line puck carrier, but I am not going to draft him over Holtz. In the end, all I care about is the overall results, but if we are projecting, being able to carry the puck should help a player drive a line.
I won't talk about Lundell, because I have him ranked lower than Holtz.
The other two things can be lumped into "create something out of nothing". For example. A guy like Stutzle or Rossi can use his edges, hands, smarts, and vision to shake defenders on the boards, and that creates an opening in play. Both these players also have exceptional passing skills that will open up play. On the other hand, Holtz is the guy that will find the open space, but he is not directly creating the open space.
Raymond can use his ability to cut laterally while pulling a toe drag to open up the middle of the ice for a great chance. Lafreniere does this as well. I just don't see Holtz as a guy with that kind of refined skill.
I guess I view the guys ahead of him as more able to create something out of nothing. Relatively speaking, they will be the ones to breakdown the defence. Holtz will find the crack in the defence, but he won't be the one creating it.