So everyone talks about how the 1st is pick 32 and there's no guarantees there, and that's fine. The problem is opportunity cost. If you spend a 1st+ on Gavrikov to make your defense marginally better, that limits what else you can do, not to mention the cost required to cut enough salary to fit him.
All I can think of is how their achilles heal every single year in the playoffs is depth scoring, and improving that should be their top priority. Gavrikov is a luxury, and as good as they may be, they can't afford luxuries when they have actual needs to fill. That doesn't even get into the potential of extending him, which would be the only thing worse than spending a 1st on him. They don't have the luxury to spend another $4-5M on a defenseman next year, not when it's tough enough to build a cap compliant lineup for next season as it is. And next season does matter. It was said earlier, but even in the best case scenario, their Stanley Cup odds are probably only around 15%, which may be better than other teams, but still isn't very good. Despite the "Last Dance" talk, there's enough talent to compete next year if they can get Bergeron back, as long as they don't go crazy now and make building a competitive team for next season a cap impossibility.
I don't even like Luke Schenn, but I can't help but feel that they'd be better off going the cheaper route with Schenn and Nick Bjugstad than overpaying for Gavrikov. It's often those smaller deals that end up being the major difference makers.