2023 Western Conference Playoff Race - Kraken Style

The Kraken will finish the season


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gstommylee

Registered User
Jan 31, 2012
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Valid points. There are goalies that get absolutely shelled and are still capable of making the saves that should be made. Nobody’s faulting Grubauer or Jones for goals on which they had no chance. The problem is that they give up too many goals on shots NHL goalies are expected to stop.

Is it the Kraken’s only weakness? Of course not. As you guys have pointed out, special teams have been atrocious.

I just firmly believe, and know from experience, that if the other guy in net stops the shots he’s expected to and our guy doesn’t, all the highlight reel desperation saves don’t mean anything. We lose. That’s what save percentage is, a sometimes flawed but accepted metric of how a goalie performs. A better measuring stick is goals saved above expected. That’s where having a Sorokin, Shesterkin, Vasy, Hellebuyck, or Ullmark elevates a team. The Kraken don’t have a guy like that, and yeah, not many teams do.

So what’s the solution? Draft and develop and wait four years? Trade a pick or prospect for the untapped potential of somebody backing up elsewhere? Nobody (I hope) is advocating changing the goalies just to change the goalies, but the players need to trust each other, from the net on out to the 7th defenseman and the 13th forward.

I don’t know. I just know, as a goalie myself, that the team in front of you HAS TO believe you’ll stop the stoppable ones, and I don’t know if Gru and Jones still elicit that faith.

Maybe, as a former Canucks fan, I’m clouded by PTSD. the Canucks had ample firepower during the West Coast Express days but went nowhere because Dan Cloutier was completely unreliable and that whole team knew it.
The Kraken have needs elsewhere, definitely, but it won’t matter how strong a lineup they build in the next few years of goaltending holds them back.

Gru was fine under colorado cause colorado had a strong defensive core that made things easier on him. He doesn't have that here yet. Not all goalies can bail out a struggling defense or a defense that has a bad day. There aren't enough goalies that can do that in the NHL to make it worth spending assets to get rid of who we have and spend more assets to get that goalie. That's what i am talking about its not worth it when there such a poor goalie pool right now.

The goalie position is very mental and sometimes goalies out psych themselves in a game especially when the players in front of him struggle. I think that's been the problem with gru. Goalies are the most stressful position in the NHL.
 
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Kat Predator

Registered User
Nov 28, 2019
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In terms of goals saved above expected our goalies are:

58 Daccord -0.3
69 Grubauer -2.7
85 Jones -6.2

These numbers are clearly not among the top 32 in the NHL. Jones is in among goalies like Comrie, Reimers, and Tarasov. Grubauer slots in between Khudobin and Rittich.

Honestly, it is a testament to how overwhelming the offensive sh% has been much of the year that we're in the hunt for a playoff position. Who assumed we'd be in the playoff hunt before the season? No one thought we had a SC contending squad and I very much doubt anybody thinks we should be a lock for such in our 2nd season.

It's a strawman to suggest that criticism of one thing is blind or avid acceptance of everything else.
 
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kranuck

Registered User
Mar 11, 2023
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The NHL has figured out that to succeed against the Kraken you dump pucks deep and wait for unforced turnovers. It makes Grubauer and Jones have to deal with more pressure in the zone, and stymies the offense having breakout opportunities.
I’m sure Francis will look to upgrade the D over the summer, and if there’s a good defense prospect where Seattle picks at the draft, I expect they’ll look to stock the cupboard.
He should have upgraded it at the deadline.

His confidence is the god awful defense is certainly paying off.

Maybe I’m just bitter by watching them blow game after game after game at home.
 

kranuck

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Mar 11, 2023
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Daccord stepped up big time last night. I only watched starting the 3rd period, but I cannot blame him for any 6-on-5 goals. The D was a cluster-f***. Dallas had us skating like chickens with their heads cut off. Honestly, Hakstol should be embarrassed that this was a repeat of the 2nd last game we had played against them, where they did the same thing to us on the 6-on-5. Not only that, they did it twice in under 4 minutes yesterdat.
The d has been terrible for 2 seasons.

Zero confidence Francis does anything to fix it. Gotta stick with the “do as little as possible” plan.

I still find it bizarre how so many people see the Oilers as cup contenders yet we still are within reaching distance of them in the standings and never get talked about. Is it just due to their star power and the belief they'll up their game in the play offs? I just don't see their defense and goaltending as good enough, feels like they have so many 5-4, 4-3 type games which is fine if you can keep outscoring everyone but eventually a team in the play offs will slow that offense down even just for a few games. A risky strategy.
They went to the conference finals and have arguably the two best forwards in the NHL. Their defense has improved. They have some more forwards helping out.

They aren’t well built but they are much much much better than the Kraken.
 

Scomerica

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Aug 14, 2020
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Seattle, Wa
Their defense has improved. They have some more forwards helping out.

They aren’t well built but they are much much much better than the Kraken.
Jury is out for me on the first part. Constantly coughing up 3 or 4 goals a game. I think they are obviously better but also not convinced they are much much better. I'd be fascinated to see how they cope if someone huts McDavid down.

Don't get me wrong, this year is there best chance of winning it all since the West is so tight. If they don't this year they probably never will with McDavid (as an Oiler).
 

Scomerica

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Aug 14, 2020
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Buffalo now has the longest play off drought in all of North American sports along with the Jets. Another reason to make the play offs this year and get off to the right start. I never want to be in that situation.
 

kranuck

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Mar 11, 2023
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Buffalo now has the longest play off drought in all of North American sports along with the Jets. Another reason to make the play offs this year and get off to the right start. I never want to be in that situation.
Mariners making a few teams feel the heat. 🤣
 

Scomerica

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Aug 14, 2020
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Mariners making a few teams feel the heat. 🤣
First season since I moved to Seattle where I feel really good about the Mariners. I was confident they could break the drought last year but I was so damn stressed. This year the gorilla is off the back and I think they can be a bit more loose without 21 years of pressure. Sky is the limit for Julio, could really be the next Griffey and I think George Kirby is going to be another ace.
 

kranuck

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Mar 11, 2023
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First season since I moved to Seattle where I feel really good about the Mariners. I was confident they could break the drought last year but I was so damn stressed. This year the gorilla is off the back and I think they can be a bit more loose without 21 years of pressure. Sky is the limit for Julio, could really be the next Griffey and I think George Kirby is going to be another ace.
I don’t care about baseball but if they win I bet the celebration would be amazing.
 

gstommylee

Registered User
Jan 31, 2012
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The d has been terrible for 2 seasons.

Zero confidence Francis does anything to fix it. Gotta stick with the “do as little as possible” plan.


They went to the conference finals and have arguably the two best forwards in the NHL. Their defense has improved. They have some more forwards helping out.

They aren’t well built but they are much much much better than the Kraken.

The team only existed for 2 years... Give it a rest will ya. its was always going to take a while to get all the necessary pieces in place. Elite dmen do not grow on trees where its so easy to get them and get them cheap too.
 

kihei

McEnroe: The older I get, the better I used to be.
Jun 14, 2006
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Vince Dunn has quietly become our leading scorer with currently 61 points. Anybody still wish we had taken Tarasenko? He's been a real asset down the stretch and we need that to continue.
 

topcatone

Registered User
Jun 6, 2016
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Our goalies have poor goals allowed because we stink as a faceoff team. Especially important on the PK. That was the one acquisition I had hoped that Francis would make before the deadline, but didn't. That said, until the team plays in the playoffs we just don't know how they will perform. The playoffs are typically very tight checking games. IMHO, Francis has built the team with the playoffs in mind. We have four lines that can score. That is why I don't see the Oilers getting very far, despite have a god on their team (well, a couple of gods).
 

Interior Cascadian

Registered User
Apr 2, 2007
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Olympia, WA
The d has been terrible for 2 seasons.
Seattle’s defense definitely doesn’t suck. They’re 2nd in the NHL in shots allowed per game at 27.3 (per statmuse, linked below).

I hate to single out the goalies, but I would argue they are the weak link when it comes to goals allowed, and like others have pointed out it’s the inconsistency and low percentage goals that are the back breakers.

I’d love to see a comparison of average time spent in the offensive and defensive zones before and after Bur was injured. The eye test says offense has dropped since he’s been out, and the more time spent in the offensive zone is time spent not defending/putting your suspect goaltending at risk.

 

kranuck

Registered User
Mar 11, 2023
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Seattle’s defense definitely doesn’t suck. They’re 2nd in the NHL in shots allowed per game at 27.3 (per statmuse, linked below).

I hate to single out the goalies, but I would argue they are the weak link when it comes to goals allowed, and like others have pointed out it’s the inconsistency and low percentage goals that are the back breakers.

I’d love to see a comparison of average time spent in the offensive and defensive zones before and after Bur was injured. The eye test says offense has dropped since he’s been out, and the more time spent in the offensive zone is time spent not defending/putting your suspect goaltending at risk.

They are routinely a dumpster fire in their own end. Shot suppression is not the end of defense.

See the endless goals in the first few minutes or them blowing a game against Boston. It’s a constant problem.
 

sigma six

Doesn't need stick tape
Aug 2, 2005
7,132
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Cascadia
Despite the proximity, I've never had any particular feelings towards the Nucks one way or the other. But definitely pulling for them against CGY right now.
 

kihei

McEnroe: The older I get, the better I used to be.
Jun 14, 2006
42,769
10,315
Toronto
Despite the proximity, I've never had any particular feelings towards the Nucks one way or the other. But definitely pulling for them against CGY right now.
Calgary kept coming back all night, tieing the game at 4 all with a little over three minutes left in regulation than winning in overtime.. Vancouver were only in it because their goalie kept them in it. Meanwhile Markstrom was terrible most of the night, allowing four goals on 14 shots.
 

majormajor

Registered User
Jun 23, 2018
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I posted this thought in the game thread but it's more of a discussion here.

Who would you rather the Kraken play in the first round?

For me it's definitely not Edmonton or L.A.

Vegas and Minnesota aren't as deep and I could see those being interesting series. First series being vs Vegas would be a big story.
 

topcatone

Registered User
Jun 6, 2016
111
60
I agree with you that we match up well with Vegas and the Wild. Even Edmonton. Just double team McDavid! We have beaten LA the last 3 games. Tonight will be interesting since it has been since November.
 

Kat Predator

Registered User
Nov 28, 2019
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Record this year against West playoff teams.

Kings: 3-1
Avalanche: 2-1
Knights: 1-1 (2)
Wild: 1-2
Stars: 1-2
Oilers: 1-3

Ed: updated after the Kings game.
 
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RainyCityHockey

Registered User
Dec 24, 2019
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Germany
I posted this thought in the game thread but it's more of a discussion here.

Who would you rather the Kraken play in the first round?

For me it's definitely not Edmonton or L.A.

Vegas and Minnesota aren't as deep and I could see those being interesting series. First series being vs Vegas would be a big story.

I would like to make the playoffs first.

Those are the remaing games.

vs Arizona
vx Arizona
@ Vancouver
vs Chicago
@ Arizona
@ Vegas
vs Vegas

We need eight points to qualify, no matter what, given that the Flames can only achieve 97 points, if they win their remaining games, and are also still playing Nashville(and Winnipeg).
Nashville could get to 98 points, if they win out, but they've lost the matchup with us.

Looking at that schedule, the next five games is where we should try and get the points needed.
If we're not, we quite frankly would have no business making the playoffs, IMO.

If we do, we've got absolutely nothing to lose and the guys will play hard.
And hey, maybe we can suprise or, more importantly, somehow one of our goalies steps up. Cause if not....well....
 
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topcatone

Registered User
Jun 6, 2016
111
60
Playoff like game against the Kings. Hard to beat a really good team 4 times in a row, and Kings had lost 2 straight. Kraken played really well, as they have for several games now, just need a bit of puck luck. They are hungry for sure. And no Tanev giveaways :) would help. Jones did ok, but where was Grubs? Is he hurt again? We took only one penalty, which is what we will need to do in any playoffs.
 
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