2021 Roster Thread XVI - Where thoughts are both sweet and sour

[Beef Invictus]

Since this team isn't winning shit until management is purged from top to bottom anyway, I hope we get Jones as an experiment to see how long it takes for the coaches, management, and fans to realize he isn't what they think he is.

Provorov is already a running experiment on the subject (in particular on the PP), but Jones will be even more obvious. Let's see what it really takes for reality to be recognized.

It will be fun.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

What the Flyers really need over everything else is finding those european difference makers like they've done in the past. I.E. Raffl / PEB. Cost controlled and positive on ice players.

What the Flyers “really need” are guys like Raffl & PEB, not Jones????

Well, we can end the conversation there, as we obviously have completely different perspectives.

 

[Amorgus]

I can't care enough to keep up with this hell scape thread in real time but regarding Gudas I'm not sure if anyone pointed out how his snarl made him one of the poster boys for suspension. After he cane back he was effectively neutered and nowhere near as effective. That's why I figured it was a good idea to trade him at the time. It's a shame it only worked out for one year with Nisky.

 

[dingbathero]

At this rate, I want to be either the Minnesota Flyers of the Philadelphia Wild. Make it happen, Feltch.

 

[Beef Invictus]

This team is two regime changes and 10 years from being as good as Colorado or Vegas.

Regime changes comparable to the overthrow of the Tsar followed by the rise of Stalin and subsequent purges to distance themselves as violently and urgently as possible from what presently exists. Long live the new flesh.

 

[macleish1974]

All I think about is in the novel Hans Brinker and the Silver Shates, the little Dutch boy trying to plug holes in the dikes with his little fingers.....

 

[deadhead]

There's also the theory that the team that gets the best player in a trade wins the trade. The Flyers wouldn't be getting "played" unless Jones doesn't sign an extension. And I don't think they'd trade for him without feeling very confident that he'll sign an extension.

Then they won't trade for him.

This isn't trading a 5th for a two week exclusive negotiating window, this is trading real assets for a one year rental who has made it clear he wants to test the free agent waters - so you're going to have to pay the free agent rate on an extension - so why not just sign a free agent?

Nor is there any reason to think Jones would want to sign here unless you give him that 8th year, which would just compound the mistake.

Jones isn't an elite player, not even close, you can at least make the case that Hamilton is an elite offensive defenseman, similar to Carlsson, where you accept his limitations on defense b/c he could carry a defense first partner like Provorov (the way the Caps paired Carlsson with Niskanen and Orlov). Jones isn't in the same league.

 

[Striiker]

Best D??? Would Jones be better than Best D Braun?!?!

 

[Ghosts Beer]

You are aware that practical, eye-test examples galore have been presented to disprove his reputation, right?


Then again, you believe Hagg is better than Ghost so maybe player evaluation isn't your thing.

What, someone cutting out a few clips of Jones taking bad angles or not making a pristine pivot at his blueline means he’s not a good defenseman? LOL. No one said he was perfect. You can be imperfect & still be a valuable player.

 

[Prongo]

How high of a draft pick would you trade to get exclusive negotiation right for Hamilton?

 

[wankstifier]

What, someone cutting out a few clips of Jones taking bad angles or not making a pristine pivot at his blueline means he’s not a good defenseman? LOL. No one said he was perfect. You can be imperfect & still be a valuable player.

This you?

If Your Analytics Say That Seth Jones Isn't Good Then That Means Your Use Of Analytics Is Trash | Barstool Sports

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Then they won't trade for him.

This isn't trading a 5th for a two week exclusive negotiating window, this is trading real assets for a one year rental who has made it clear he wants to test the free agent waters - so you're going to have to pay the free agent rate on an extension - so why not just sign a free agent?

Nor is there any reason to think Jones would want to sign here unless you give him that 8th year, which would just compound the mistake.

Jones isn't an elite player, not even close, you can at least make the case that Hamilton is an elite offensive defenseman, similar to Carlsson, where you accept his limitations on defense b/c he could carry a defense first partner like Provorov (the way the Caps paired Carlsson with Niskanen and Orlov). Jones isn't in the same league.

I don’t know how many times I have to say the Flyers only make the trade if they are very confident he’ll sign an extension. So any argument against Jones based on his UFA status is irrelevant to my position.

 

[Tripod]

Interesting that only 1 of the top 7 teams in xGF% is left in the playoffs. Isn't that the going stat to determine if teams are good or not?

 

[Beef Invictus]

What, someone cutting out a few clips of Jones taking bad angles or not making a pristine pivot at his blueline means he’s not a good defenseman? LOL. No one said he was perfect. You can be imperfect & still be a valuable player.

Hold on, so cherrypicking mistakes is OK when assessing Ghost, but extensive examples of Jones flaws are not acceptable? Go ask Columbus fans, they can confirm you aren't looking at outliers. It's the norm.

If you're going to be paying out the nose to acquire and then keep a dman, then that dman better be damned close to flawless. They definitely shouldn't have glaring defensive issues that leave them vulnerable to getting penned in and scored upon at rates higher than they generate offense.

Jones for a reasonable trade at 5 or 6 million if we didn't already have several players of similar (and even better) caliber? Sure. Paying heavily for more of what we already have while not filling the actual need? No. No thanks. That's dumb.

I'm willing to do it now just so this team can learn how dumb it is. Bring on the apocalypse. It's clearly the only way out of this mire.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Interesting that only 1 of the top 7 teams in xGF% is left in the playoffs. Isn't that the going stat to determine if teams are good or not?

It is one stat. There are many others that are important. Scoring goals is important, but so is preventing them.


I don't know why this needs to be explained so often lately.


This also happens every 5-7 years or so and you get people trying to claim or insinuate that being good at offense is actually bad or meaningless, when in most years the opposite is true.

 

[Lindberg]

What the Flyers “really need” are guys like Raffl & PEB, not Jones????

Well, we can end the conversation there, as we obviously have completely different perspectives.

You do realize that some of the Flyers most glaring weaknesses are in their 4th line right? It was a continual circus there last season. The removal of Braun and Hagg would help as well. Have you seen the amount of cap space that's available? By the time they give out salary for Hart, Sanhiem and a back up goaltender there won't be much left. Having some positive on ice contributors for 10 minutes a game with low salaries is a big boost to the overall dynamic of the game. The idea of a "grinder" line really needs to die, every goal matters and every game matters. I'd imagine Seattle is likely going to absorb one of Ghost, JVR, or Voracek but that doesn't mean you should just string yourself back up to the cap especially without it possibly rising for a few years.

The Flyers should continue the Carter Hart experience as far as I'm concerned as well.

 

[TCTC]

I mean he'd be our best defenseman not named Provorov, Ghost, or Sanheim. Solid chance that York surpasses him in terms of overall impact and results in short order, too.

Can't wait to shell out a prime roster player to pay 8mil for a middle/bottom pairing dman. He's not even the best dman on Columbus.

That's just nonsense. If our top 3 defensemen were that good, we wouldn't even have to look for another defenseman.

 

[Curufinwe]

Interesting that only 1 of the top 7 teams in xGF% is left in the playoffs. Isn't that the going stat to determine if teams are good or not?

I usually go by P%.

 

[wasup]

How high of a draft pick would you trade to get exclusive negotiation right for Hamilton?

I would trade our 8th rounder this year , or more like , I want Ekholm !!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Beef Invictus]

That's just nonsense. If our top 3 defensemen were that good, we wouldn't even have to look for another defenseman.

You're missing the point here. It's not that they're that good. It's that Jones is no better overall than them. This is a problem when we are seeking someone better. A huge problem, especially given the cost to acquire and keep.

 

[Beef Invictus]

You do realize that some of the Flyers most glaring weaknesses are in their 4th line right? It was a continual circus there last season. The removal of Braun and Hagg would help as well. Have you seen the amount of cap space that's available? By the time they give out salary for Hart, Sanhiem and a back up goaltender there won't be much left. Having some positive on ice contributors for 10 minutes a game with low salaries is a big boost to the overall dynamic of the game. The idea of a "grinder" line really needs to die, every goal matters and every game matters. I'd imagine Seattle is likely going to absorb one of Ghost, JVR, or Voracek but that doesn't mean you should just string yourself back up to the cap especially without it possibly rising for a few years.

The Flyers should continue the Carter Hart experience as far as I'm concerned as well.

The team is far better helped by adding efficiency than it is by adding glaring inefficiency, and removing from their roster to do so to boot.

 

[deadhead]

While I agree that analytics probably underestimates Jones' value, they're not that off when you're looking at a large sample.
As far as size and speed, just let Myers develop, he's bigger and faster and younger and cheaper.

Jones is an "early arrival," these players tend to flatline earlier, because by now Jones isn't going to learn much more on the job, like OEL and other hot shot players, at some point "they are what they are," that is, if they aren't climbing a learning curve they probably never will.
He has 8 years as a starter, 580 games plus 37 PO games, it's unlikely there's any upside left.

Yes, he's a solid top 4 D-man, like Provorov, a minutes eater but not an elite player.
He's good offensively, but not a top ES scorer, a second tier PP QB, a solid PK guy.
He'd definitely help the Flyers, but not if you have to give two prime assets then sign him to a 8 year deal at a big cap hit starting at 28 years old.
He's not Hedman and never will be, that's the kind of player you put together an overpay to obtain.
The difference is Hedman did climb a learning curve and steadily improved until he was an elite player.

 

[Beef Invictus]

While I agree that analytics probably underestimates Jones' value, they're not that off when you're looking at a large sample.
As far as size and speed, just let Myers develop, he's bigger and faster and younger and cheaper.

Jones is an "early arrival," these players tend to flatline earlier, because by now Jones isn't going to learn much more on the job, like OEL and other hot shot players, at some point "they are what they are," that is, if they aren't climbing a learning curve they probably never will.
He has 8 years as a starter, 580 games plus 37 PO games, it's unlikely there's any upside left.

Yes, he's a solid top 4 D-man, like Provorov, a minutes eater but not an elite player.
He's good offensively, but not a top ES scorer, a second tier PP QB, a solid PK guy.
He'd definitely help the Flyers, but not if you have to give two prime assets then sign him to a 8 year deal at a big cap hit starting at 28 years old.
He's not Hedman and never will be, that's the kind of player you put together an overpay to obtain.
The difference is Hedman did climb a learning curve and steadily improved until he was an elite player.

The bolded is the whole problem. The cost to acquire and keep is not going to be in line with what he provides. And if cap is flat for several more seasons? That's a death stroke.

 

[Lindberg]

The team is far better helped by adding efficiency than it is by adding glaring inefficiency, and removing from their roster to do so to boot.

Too many people undercut the value of low tier players. People continually blame McDavid and Draisaitl for the failures of the Oilers this year but it's literally the rest of the construction of their roster that's an issue.

Those 8-12 minute a game players are not throw away minutes. Sometimes the top line is going to be shut down and you need those other players to be the difference makers.

 

[FlyerNutter]

Perhaps the sensible haircut will for once shoot for a higher tier. Or find the equivalent of the Kevin Hayes contract on defense.

I don’t mind him perhaps as much as some when it comes to Jones - but he’s not a top 15 dman in the league. Stop giving huge contracts to guys who will never live up to them.

Eichel baby. Eichel.