2021 Roster Thread XVI - Where thoughts are both sweet and sour

[Ghosts Beer]

Hold on, so cherrypicking mistakes is OK when assessing Ghost, but extensive examples of Jones flaws are not acceptable? Go ask Columbus fans, they can confirm you aren't looking at outliers. It's the norm.

If you're going to be paying out the nose to acquire and then keep a dman, then that dman better be damned close to flawless. They definitely shouldn't have glaring defensive issues that leave them vulnerable to getting penned in and scored upon at rates higher than they generate offense.

Jones for a reasonable trade at 5 or 6 million if we didn't already have several players of similar (and even better) caliber? Sure. Paying heavily for more of what we already have while not filling the actual need? No. No thanks. That's dumb.

I'm willing to do it now just so this team can learn how dumb it is. Bring on the apocalypse. It's clearly the only way out of this mire.

You think Shayne Gostisbehere, a guy whom the Flyers couldn't trade and who every team in the league passed on claiming for free in a league desperate for quality defensemen, is better than Seth Jones. I think that says it all right there.

You're entitled to your opinion regarding Jones, but I've watched him play many times dating back to US hockey days, and I think he's an excellent player. Not much I can add other than that. And I didn't reach my opinion on Ghost based upon a mash-up of mistakes on video made by some YouTuber. I arrived at my opinion on Ghost by watching him play every night. So your attempted analogy there fails.

 

[Curufinwe]

The Flyers had six forwards average under 12 minutes of ES TOI and play 14 or more games.

Raffl
Allison
Lindblom
Patrick
NAK
Bunnaman

 

[Tripod]

It is one stat. There are many others that are important. Scoring goals is important, but so is preventing them.


I don't know why this needs to be explained so often lately.


This also happens every 5-7 years or so and you get people trying to claim or insinuate that being good at offense is actually bad or meaningless, when in most years the opposite is true.

I said xGF%....so the difference between xGF and xGA. So it does take preventing goals into account.

And I used that because weeks ago, people said it was the stat to go by because CF% is outdated and xGF% is a much better one to use. Is there a new one now? Asking honestly.

 

[Striiker]

That's just nonsense. If our top 3 defensemen were that good, we wouldn't even have to look for another defenseman.

Uh oh, he’s starting to accidentally make sense and realize that the D isn’t the problem here.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Interesting that only 1 of the top 7 teams in xGF% is left in the playoffs. Isn't that the going stat to determine if teams are good or not?

I mean 7 of the top 11 teams won a playoff round and two of the remaining five were knocked off by two of the seven...

Vegas - 6th
Tampa - 7th
Montreal - 10th
NYI - 11th

And Tampa with their lineup now is probably safely in the top 3.

It's not like a bottom third team in the league is making a run here.

 

[deadhead]

You do realize that some of the Flyers most glaring weaknesses are in their 4th line right? It was a continual circus there last season. The removal of Braun and Hagg would help as well. Have you seen the amount of cap space that's available? By the time they give out salary for Hart, Sanhiem and a back up goaltender there won't be much left. Having some positive on ice contributors for 10 minutes a game with low salaries is a big boost to the overall dynamic of the game. The idea of a "grinder" line really needs to die, every goal matters and every game matters. I'd imagine Seattle is likely going to absorb one of Ghost, JVR, or Voracek but that doesn't mean you should just string yourself back up to the cap especially without it possibly rising for a few years.

The Flyers should continue the Carter Hart experience as far as I'm concerned as well.

The removal of Braun and Hagg wouldn't help at all, because you'd have to replace them. And you're not sticking Zamula in the press box for 40 games (7th D-man), you start him in the AHL and bring him up due to injury or he plays so well you have no choice. And Braun is the perfect partner on the 3rd pair for York as a rookie, York can move the puck and Braun can CYA.

Grinder lines are fine, because a good grinder line can matchup against top lines and create better matchups for your other lines.
See the Islanders.

Last year was chaotic because Couts was out, Frost got hurt, then Patrick couldn't handle 3C, Hayes was struggling with his hernia, Bunnaman flopped at 4C, Laughton ended up a lot at LW because, well, he's good at that. Bunnaman is one of my biggest disappointments, failed to build on a solid 2019-20, needs a full year in the AHL before he gets another shot.

However, Laczynski showed he can handle 4C, though he might be better at RW.
Patrick??? Should be better but I wouldn't depend on him.
Frost. If the shoulder is 100% (it should be by September) I predict a breakout season.
Hayes. A healthy Hayes playing like 2019-20 would help a lot, especially with wings that are better fits.
With Hayes, Frost, Laczynski, Patrick and Laughton become depth at center, would like to see Willman play center in AHL as insurance.

Laughton, Hayes, Farabee, Lindblom, Laczynski, reduce Couts' PK minutes.

 

[deadhead]

I mean 7 of the top 11 teams won a playoff round and two of the remaining five were knocked off by one of the seven...

Vegas - 6th
Tampa - 7th
Montreal - 10th
NYI - 11th

It's not like a bottom third team in the league is making a run here.

Funny, all have goalies playing above average.
Maybe that helps balance xGF%?

 

[Beef Invictus]

You think Shayne Gostisbehere, a guy whom the Flyers couldn't trade and who every team in the league passed on claiming for free in a league desperate for quality defensemen, is better than Seth Jones. I think that says it all right there.

You're entitled to your opinion regarding Jones, but I've watched him play many times dating back to US hockey days, and I think he's an excellent player. Not much I can add other than that. And I didn't reach my opinion on Ghost based upon a mash-up of mistakes on video made by some YouTuber. I arrived at my opinion on Ghost by watching him play every night. So your attempted analogy there fails.

Well Ghost just outplayed Jones for the season, so yes. He is. That our team is too stupid to recognize what he is is a major problem, but not surprising as they routinely fail at these basic evaluations. Jones is the 4th best dman on Columbus, Ghost was neck and neck for being our best this year. Even when adjusting for differences between team situations, Ghost was flat-out better. Especially defensively.

You have routinely decreed that Ghost and Sanheim are crap by focusing on a single turnover while ignoring the net product of play. So it's rich seeing you claim that's being done for Jones.

Like I said, if we make the mistake of getting him I look forward to you slowly realizing he isn't at all what you think he is. This is you seeing grass on the other side of the fence that's the same color as yours and swearing up and down it's greener.

 

[Lindberg]

deadhead I'm never surprised how you quickly dismiss all the roster issues.

 

[FlyerNutter]

Just on a tangent, I’d like this club to spend more time focusing on what the leagues - or other teams perspectives might be when evaluating players/personnel.

When it comes to staff, how many other clubs would have stuck with Gordon so long when reports of player clashes were out there. Or in my eyes we haven’t really seen a whole lot of development down there anyway.

Other small examples could be made ranging from retaining Therrien, now promoting Lappy - extending Laughton, keeping Elliot, Hagg, Stewart, etc etc, or the Hayes deal.

I just get a strong underlying vibe for years that this organization seemingly lives, and thinks in a bubble - that they truly know best.

They really f***ing dont. Jones isn’t a top dman in the league, and they shouldn’t be so overconfident in their internal talent evaluation when compared with the cold reality.

 

[Amorgus]

All I think about is in the novel Hans Brinker and the Silver Shates, the little Dutch boy trying to plug holes in the dikes with his little fingers.....

Did they slap him?

 

[Tripod]

I mean 7 of the top 11 teams won a playoff round and two of the remaining five were knocked off by one of the seven...

Vegas - 6th
Tampa - 7th
Montreal - 10th
NYI - 11th

It's not like a bottom third team in the league is making a run here.

Yes but that can also be flipped around to also say 6 of the worst 11 teams, won a playoff round because we are including so many more teams.

I just thought it was interesting that xGF% is used very oftem now to determine a players worth. And yet here we are with 7 teams this playoffs with a xCF% over 50%..and only Vegas is still playing.

Vegas is 4th
Mtl is 8th
TBL 10th
NYI 14th

 

[Starat327]

This thread has become worse than the Trade forum. Kudos, guys.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Yes but that can also be flipped around to also say 6 of the worst 11 teams, won a playoff round because we are including so many more teams.

I just thought it was interesting that xGF% is used very oftem now to determine a players worth. And yet here we are with 7 teams this playoffs with a xCF% over 50%..and only Vegas is still playing.

Vegas is 4th
Mtl is 8th
TBL 10th
NYI 14th

Hold up, team metrics are wildly different from single player evaluations

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Well Ghost just outplayed Jones for the season, so yes. He is. That our team is too stupid to recognize what he is is a major problem, but not surprising as they routinely fail at these basic evaluations. Jones is the 4th best dman on Columbus, Ghost was neck and neck for being our best this year. Even when adjusting for differences between team situations, Ghost was flat-out better. Especially defensively.

You have routinely decreed that Ghost and Sanheim are crap by focusing on a single turnover while ignoring the net product of play. So it's rich seeing you claim that's being done for Jones.

Like I said, if we make the mistake of getting him I look forward to you slowly realizing he isn't at all what you think he is. This is you seeing grass on the other side of the fence that's the same color as yours and swearing up and down it's greener.

Listen to yourself. You are arguing that Shayne Gostisbehere is better than Seth Jones.

Jones played 25 minutes per game, was CBJ’s #1 defenseman, & was 5th in the entire NHL in time on ice.

He bore the difficult burden of being the workhorse on a team 28th/31 in the standings.

Ghost played 19:56 & every team in the league passed on having him for free.

Ghost doesn’t do anything better than Jones. He’s not better offensively, he’s not better defensively, he doesn’t PK, he is not an option to log 25 minutes/game in all situations, he’s not an option to match up against bigger top forwards.

Think no one claims Seth Jones if he was waived?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Listen to yourself. You are arguing that Shayne Gostisbehere is better than Seth Jones.

Jones played 25 minutes per game, was CBJ’s #1 defenseman, & was 5th in the entire NHL in time on ice.

He bore the difficult burden of being the workhorse on a team 28th/31 in the standings.

Ghost played 19:56 & every team in the league passed on having him for free.

Ghost doesn’t do anything better than Jones. He’s not better offensively, he’s not better defensively, he doesn’t PK, he is not an option to log 25 minutes/game in all situations, he’s not an option to match up against bigger top forwards.

Think no one claims Seth Jones if he was waived?

Brute TOI doesn't make someone the best dman on a team, or even better than other dmen. Provorov, anyone?

Waivers are sometimes wrong. Remember when you bragged nonstop about how waivers proved you right about NAK? Only to still be wrong in the end? If waivers are the great indicator you claim they are, do you believe Friedman is better than Ghost?

Ghost is actually significantly better at moving the puck up ice. He's better at transition defense. He has matched up against larger forwards and come out on top. You're too blinded by bias to recognize him, but that's not his fault.

If we get Jones you're going to end up regretting it.

 

[Lindberg]

Listen to yourself. You are arguing that Shayne Gostisbehere is better than Seth Jones.

Jones played 25 minutes per game, was CBJ’s #1 defenseman, & was 5th in the entire NHL in time on ice.

He bore the difficult burden of being the workhorse on a team 28th/31 in the standings.

Ghost played 19:56 & every team in the league passed on having him for free.

Ghost doesn’t do anything better than Jones. He’s not better offensively, he’s not better defensively, he doesn’t PK, he is not an option to log 25 minutes/game in all situations, he’s not an option to match up against bigger top forwards.

Think no one claims Seth Jones if he was waived?

Ghost is definitely better than Jones offensively. You can argue everything else though.

 

[Striiker]

Hold up, team metrics are wildly different from single player evaluations

+/- is perfect for both

We don’t need nerd stats like xGF% when we have flawless caveman stats.

 

[wankstifier]

 

[FLYguy3911]

Yes but that can also be flipped around to also say 6 of the worst 11 teams, won a playoff round because we are including so many more teams.

Huh?

I just thought it was interesting that xGF% is used very oftem now to determine a players worth. And yet here we are with 7 teams this playoffs with a xCF% over 50%..and only Vegas is still playing.

Vegas is 4th
Mtl is 8th
TBL 10th
NYI 14th

Again, it's not like a team in the bottom third is making a run at the Cup (wherever you are getting your numbers from).

And these are only 5v5 numbers. When we are talking about 60/40 splits at most, special teams can often swing a game and a series.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Ghost is definitely better than Jones offensively. You can argue everything else though.

Let's see:

Points per season since Ghost entered the league:

15/16: Ghost 46 (in 64 games), Seth 31 (in 81 games)

16/17: Ghost 39 (76 games), Seth 42 (75 games)

17/18: Ghost 65 (78 games), Seth 57 (78 games)

18/19: Ghost 37 (78 games), Seth 46 (75 games)

19/20: Ghost 12 (42 games), Seth 30 (56 games)

20/21: Ghost 20 (41 games), Seth 28 (56 games)


Seth Jones has outproduced Ghost the last 3 seasons, and in four of the six seasons Ghost has been in the league.

 

[StarterHart]

Listen to yourself. You are arguing that Shayne Gostisbehere is better than Seth Jones.

Jones played 25 minutes per game, was CBJ’s #1 defenseman, & was 5th in the entire NHL in time on ice.

He bore the difficult burden of being the workhorse on a team 28th/31 in the standings.

Ghost played 19:56 & every team in the league passed on having him for free.

Ghost doesn’t do anything better than Jones. He’s not better offensively, he’s not better defensively, he doesn’t PK, he is not an option to log 25 minutes/game in all situations, he’s not an option to match up against bigger top forwards.

Think no one claims Seth Jones if he was waived?

Come on. Even the biggest criticizers of Ghost recognize a couple things he does extremely well. This is either hyperbolic, or you really are just that incapable of forming honest opinions. Plenty of people dislike Ghost for various reasons, but the bolded statement is so objectively wrong that it's on the level of being moronic.

 

[Lindberg]

Let's see:

Points per season since Ghost entered the league:

15/16: Ghost 46 (in 64 games), Seth 31 (in 81 games)

16/17: Ghost 39 (76 games), Seth 42 (75 games)

17/18: Ghost 65 (78 games), Seth 57 (78 games)

18/19: Ghost 37 (78 games), Seth 46 (75 games)

19/20: Ghost 12 (42 games), Seth 30 (56 games)

20/21: Ghost 20 (41 games), Seth 28 (56 games)


Seth Jones has outproduced Ghost the last 3 seasons, and in four of the six seasons Ghost has been in the league.

Non-complete analysis. How many extra minutes do you think Jones is playing over Ghost?

Jones is also gifted the best possible partner while Ghost has been placed next to MacDonald, Hagg and quite a few other mixed bag of players.

 

[deadhead]

deadhead I'm never surprised how you quickly dismiss all the roster issues.

Well, this is the deepest roster in a decade.

Lindblom wasn't 100% last year, but he flashed in enough games that you can feel more confident this fall that we'll see pre-cancer Oskar.
Allison looks like the real deal, two way physical forward who can shoot and skate, we could use a couple more!
Laczynski ironically is the one who got hurt, but he showed enough to see him easily winning a 4th line job
Frost is two years older, while I think people here exaggerated the quality of his play in 2019-20, he should be NHL ready in 2021-22.

Patrick is the biggest question mark, will he progress or has he lost "it."

York is already penciled into a starting job, Zamula isn't far away.
Hogberg could probably fill in on the third line if needed. Wylie and Millman have potential to step up next season.
Willman and J Cates will probably start in LHV but are candidates for injury replacements, along with Bunnaman, Twarynski, Sushko, Lycksell.
Ratcliffe has to take that next step, we'll see.

So yeah, organizational depth is much better than it's been in a long time.
LHV will have fewer LHV lifers and more legitimate prospects.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Come on. Even the biggest criticizers of Ghost recognize a couple things he does extremely well. This is either hyperbolic, or you really are just that incapable of forming honest opinions. Plenty of people dislike Ghost for various reasons, but the bolded statement is so objectively wrong that it's on the level of being moronic.

"The level of being moronic," eh?

Then tell me: What does Ghost do better than Seth Jones?

Jones is faster, bigger, more physical, has a harder shot, blocks more shots, logs more minutes, plays in more situations, and has outproduced Ghost offensively in each of the last three seasons (and four out of the six seasons Ghost has been in the league).