Prospect Info: 2021 Draft Thread

[Volica]

Flames deserve first overall because integrity. So, make it happen NHL gods.

When we're talking about guys in the 12 range, we're talking about guys who go in that 9-15 range.
From 2010-2016, here's a breakdown of how that ends up looking like drafting in that range:

Year	Superstar	Top Pair / Top Line / Starting G	Top 4 / Top 6 / Backup Calibre	Top 6 / Top 12	Bust
2010	0	1	2	2	2
2011	0	2	1	2	2
2012	0	2	0	3	2
2013	0	2	1	3	1
2014	0	3	2	0	2
2015	1	0	2	1	3
2016	0	1	1	4	1
Average:	0.14	1.57	1.29	2.14	1.86
Percentage:	2.0%	22.4%	18.4%	30.6%	26.5%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Highest likelihood in this range is drafting an energy/depth guy; followed by drafting a bust.
There's about a 40% chance you pick up a top 6 player; and there's a massive 2% chance we draft the guy who saves our franchise here.

 

[Dack]

Flames deserve first overall because integrity. So, make it happen NHL gods.

When we're talking about guys in the 12 range, we're talking about guys who go in that 9-15 range.
From 2010-2016, here's a breakdown of how that ends up looking like drafting in that range:

Year	Superstar	Top Pair / Top Line / Starting G	Top 4 / Top 6 / Backup Calibre	Top 6 / Top 12	Bust
2010	0	1	2	2	2
2011	0	2	1	2	2
2012	0	2	0	3	2
2013	0	2	1	3	1
2014	0	3	2	0	2
2015	1	0	2	1	3
2016	0	1	1	4	1
Average:	0.14	1.57	1.29	2.14	1.86
Percentage:	2.0%	22.4%	18.4%	30.6%	26.5%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Highest likelihood in this range is drafting an energy/depth guy; followed by drafting a bust.
There's about a 40% chance you pick up a top 6 player; and there's a massive 2% chance we draft the guy who saves our franchise here.

I'm not sure whoever picks top 2 will end up getting a superstar in this draft. Clarke is a lot of people's #1 guy in this draft and it's generally agreed upon that he's basically John Klinberg. A really good d man, maybe even a #1 but not a superstar. Power's potential is likely a little higher but there is serious risk there. I've seen some scouts who have him in the 4-7 range. They worry that his defensive game isn't polished enough and that while his offense is good there isn't a standout tool that makes him a clear 50+ point guy rather than just a good offensive player.


I realize that there's nothing preventing us from winning each of the next 3 lotteries but there's no chance that's happening. So I'm just going to hope for one win in either 2022 or 2023.

 

[CraigsList]

I mean, I’d be fine getting 1st or 2nd OA. Would be curious to see who in this wacky draft our scouts seem a top pick. It also doesn’t count towards the number of lotteries won, I believe that isn’t until 2022

 

[DFF]

So who is Buffalo going to pick with our first?

 

[Volica]

I'm not sure whoever picks top 2 will end up getting a superstar in this draft. Clarke is a lot of people's #1 guy in this draft and it's generally agreed upon that he's basically John Klinberg. A really good d man, maybe even a #1 but not a superstar. Power's potential is likely a little higher but there is serious risk there. I've seen some scouts who have him in the 4-7 range. They worry that his defensive game isn't polished enough and that while his offense is good there isn't a standout tool that makes him a clear 50+ point guy rather than just a good offensive player.


I realize that there's nothing preventing us from winning each of the next 3 lotteries but there's no chance that's happening. So I'm just going to hope for one win in either 2022 or 2023.

Yeah, I personally don't see an absolute superstar in this draft. There's a solid chance the guy who goes 5/6 ends up the best player; but I mean, again, I'm a fairly analytical/stats guy and if we look at the top 5 picks of drafts from 2010-2018:

Year	Superstar	Top Pair / Top Line / Starting G	Top 4 / Top 6 / Backup Calibre	Top 6 / Top 12	Bust
2010	0	2	2	1	0
2011	0	4	1	0	0
2012	0	1	0	2	2
2013	2	2	1	0	0
2014	1	2	1	0	1
2015	2	2	0	1	0
2016	1	2	0	1	1
2017	2	2	0	1	0
2018	0	3	0	2	0
Average:	1.14	2.00	0.29	1.00	0.57
Percentage:	16.3%	28.6%	4.1%	14.3%	8.2%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Like, there's some percentage jumps here, and to add, there's a few guys in 2017/2018 I put as top 6/top 12 guys just because they're still raw; they could be busts or they could move into a higher echelon.

 

[Double Dion]

Pretty hard to evaluate this one. I liked what I saw from McTavish at the U18s, I liked what I saw from Lysell at the U18s, they might be available where we are likely picking. I've really only seen a few of the WHL guys and then the U19 and U18 tournaments. Every other year I feel like I have stronger opinions than this one. Even if half of them end up being wrong like Shinkaruk...haha

 

[JPeeper]

Unless I missed something, Flames can't get 1st overall, we can only move up 10 spots to 2nd.

 

[Lunatik]

Unless I missed something, Flames can't get 1st overall, we can only move up 10 spots to 2nd.

The moving up just 10 spots begins next draft

 

[JPeeper]

The moving up just 10 spots begins next draft

Well then the NHL has done an AIDS jobs trying to explain because I have read multiple things and nothing is consistent, some say move up 10 spots, most I looked at didn't. They changed it to the top 2 picks though and not 3, but the 2 in 5 rule doesn't take effect until next, what a clusterf***. NHL is truly run by idiots.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

I hope the Flames get one of McTavish, Johnson, Lucius, or Lysell. I think I would be the most the happy with Lysell. I would want Johnson as my top pick but I think he’s likely gone by the time we pick.

 

[Lunatik]

Well then the NHL has done an AIDS jobs trying to explain because I have read multiple things and nothing is consistent, some say move up 10 spots, most I looked at didn't. They changed it to the top 2 picks though and not 3, but the 2 in 5 rule doesn't take effect until next, what a clusterf***. NHL is truly run by idiots.

No the NHL did a fine job, people just don't pay attention and don't report things properly. The NHL.com article explains it very clearly.

The 2021 NHL Draft Lottery will be reduced from three drawings to two as part of changes announced Tuesday.

The changes, approved by the NHL Board of Governors, will determine the order of the NHL Draft for the teams that do not qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Two other changes will begin with the 2022 NHL Draft Lottery:
-- Teams will be restricted from moving up more than 10 spots if it wins one of the lottery draws.
-- Teams cannot win the lottery more than twice in a five-year period. Wins in the lottery prior to 2022 will not be counted toward this total.

As for things changing in 2 different years, the latter two start a year later because of when the changes weren't announced until March.

Just because you don't agree with their decision, doesn't make them idiots.

 

[Body Checker]

People hate the thought of taking a goalie but we need to be talking about Wallstedt at 13. Everyone wants a forward but it could be like deciding between Vasilevsky and a bunch of Ondrej Palats.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

People hate the thought of taking a goalie but we need to be talking about Wallstedt at 13. Everyone wants a forward but it could be like deciding between Vasilevsky and a bunch of Ondrej Palats.

I know. Doesn't matter. Still very hesitant.

Four years of Trevor Kidd instead of Martin Broudeur will do that to you.

 

[Mobiandi]

People hate the thought of taking a goalie but we need to be talking about Wallstedt at 13. Everyone wants a forward but it could be like deciding between Vasilevsky and a bunch of Ondrej Palats.

I'd rather keep looking for David Rittichs in Europe tbh

 

[TheHudlinator]

People hate the thought of taking a goalie but we need to be talking about Wallstedt at 13. Everyone wants a forward but it could be like deciding between Vasilevsky and a bunch of Ondrej Palats.

The problem with goalies especially in the first round is sure a few become starters but far more are Leland Irving's. We haven't showed the ability to develop goalies so I'd rather not spend our first on a goalie.

 

[Lunatik]

People hate the thought of taking a goalie but we need to be talking about Wallstedt at 13. Everyone wants a forward but it could be like deciding between Vasilevsky and a bunch of Ondrej Palats.

How often does that actually work out?

Starting in 2015 (I feel like starting sooner doesn't give enough time and nine were selected in 2016) these are the last 16 goalies (was doing 15 but didn't want to cutoff mid-year) taken in round 1

• 2015 - #22, Ilya Samsonov, highly rated but needs more time to know
• 2012 - #19, Andrei Vasilevsky, elite
• 2010 - #11, Jack Campbell, good backup
• 2010 - #27, Mark Visentin, played 1 NHL game
• 2008 - #18, Chet Pickard, never played an NHL game
• 2008 - #30, Tom McCollum, played 3 NHL games
• 2006 - #11, Jonathan Bernier, good backup
• 2006 - #15, Riku Helenius, played 1 NHL game
• 2006 - #23, Semyon Varlamov, above average starter
• 2006 - #26, Leland Irving, 13 NHL games
• 2005 - #5, Carey Price, elite
• 2005 - #21, Tuukka Rask, elite
• 2004 - #6, Al Montoya, I was utter shocked to see he actually played 168 NHL games
• 2004 - #14, Devan Dubnyk, average starter
• 2004 - #17, Marek Schwarz, 6 NHL games
• 2004 - #26, Corey Schneider, weird career, took a while to become a starter, was above average a short time then completely imploded.

These are some of the names were taken 11-20 in 2011 to present:

• Ty Smith
• Nick Suzuki
• Robert Thomas
• Charlie McAvoy
• Mathew Barzal
• Kyle Connor
• Thomas Chabot
• Jakub Vrana
• Dylan Larkin
• Alex Tuch
• Max Domi
• Ryan Pulock
• Anthony Mantha
• Filip Forsberg
• Tom Wilson
• Tomas Hertl
• Teuvo Teravainen
• JT Miller

 

[Dack]

Very few goalies are consistently elite and those are the only ones that are really worth much. Look at the goalies that have done well in the last 3-4 seasons. How many of them do it consistently? Vasilevsky and Hellebuyck for two. Rask and Bishop have had pretty consistent careers. What about all the guys who aren't consistent? Fleury is likely to win the vezina this season after a year of subpar play that had him backing up Lehner. The guy who stole his job in Pittsburgh looked like the next great goalie, now he's in Ottawa posting poor numbers. Bobrovsky was elite for years then signed a mega deal and turned into a sieve. Frederik Anderson was a good starter for years and now backs up a career back up.

 

[Volica]

Very few goalies are consistently elite and those are the only ones that are really worth much. Look at the goalies that have done well in the last 3-4 seasons. How many of them do it consistently? Vasilevsky and Hellebuyck for two. Rask and Bishop have had pretty consistent careers. What about all the guys who aren't consistent? Fleury is likely to win the vezina this season after a year of subpar play that had him backing up Lehner. The guy who stole his job in Pittsburgh looked like the next great goalie, now he's in Ottawa posting poor numbers. Bobrovsky was elite for years then signed a mega deal and turned into a sieve. Frederik Anderson was a good starter for years and now backs up a career back up.

Super small windows for goalies too for the most part.

 

[Nanuuk]

We'd be better off choosing a player that can be really good within three years. If we luck out with a higher pick that could potentially play right away that might be good too. But that player would have to be better than what we have now in our top six.

That's why I'm inclined to choose (if we have a higher pick) one of the D-men. If middle of the pack 11-14, choose a forward, preferably RW if he is the best player available.

 

[CamPopplestone]

My stance on goalies is burn a 6th or 7th on one every year, because they're s crapshoot and until they transition to professional play you just cannot tell, except in extreme circumstances like Price.

And you alternate every year where you take the goalie from, so you don't overload the AHL/Farm system, one year Russia, one Canadian Juniors, one year Finland, Sweden, etc, so they can develop their games overseas for a few years. Maybe you luck out and hit a Lundqvist or a Rinne, and if you don't, it was a 6/7 rounder so who cares.

I wouldn't burn our first on a goalie.

 

[DFF]

The problem with goalies especially in the first round is sure a few become starters but far more are Leland Irving's. We haven't showed the ability to develop goalies so I'd rather not spend our first on a goalie.

Button and the flames taking a goalie?

lol you can’t be serious

 

[johnnystormcgy]

If the Flames had a track record of identifying goalies and developing them up through the organization, I would be ok with drafting a goalie high.

Who’s everybody’s picks for 12? I’m liking Lambos, McTavish and Sillinger.

 

[Lunatik]

If the Flames had a track record of identifying goalies and developing them up through the organization, I would be ok with drafting a goalie high.

Who’s everybody’s picks for 12? I’m liking Lambos, McTavish and Sillinger.

History only means so much because personnel is constantly changing. Literally no one involved in developing goaltenders was around the last time we drafted a goalie in the first round, so history means somewhere between zero and sweet f*** all.

 

[johnnystormcgy]

History only means so much because personnel is constantly changing. Literally no one involved in developing goaltenders was around the last time we drafted a goalie in the first round, so history means somewhere between zero and sweet f*** all.

I’m not talking about Leland Irving, I’m talking about recent history with the Flames current scouting group and their track record of drafting and developing goalies.

In the Button era, what evidence do you have that Flames scouting group has the skill to properly evaluate and project a goalie that would justify selection in the first round?

 

[Lunatik]

I’m not talking about Leland Irving, I’m talking about recent history with the Flames current scouting group and their track record of drafting and developing goalies.

In the Button era, what evidence do you have that Flames scouting group has the skill to properly evaluate and project a goalie that would justify selection in the first round?

The scouting department has absolutely nothing to do with development. And how a scout actually scouts is extremely dependent on the direction of the front office. The only goalies we've drafted since Treliving completely took the reigns of the draft are Parsons and Wolf.

Also, if you haven't noticed, Sigalet has had scouting goalies added to his purview over the last few years. I don't know if he had much input into the Parsons pick, but he did with signing Rittich and Zagidulin and drafting Wolf.

It should also be noted that injuries have derailed a couple of good Flames goaltending prospects in recent years with Gillies and Parsons.

edit: grammar/spelling