2020 Offseason Thread Part III

[CutOnDime97]

How about Ehlers

 

[deadhead]

How about Ehlers

Why? He's a good player, but what does he bring that the Flyers need?
He's got a great contract (4yrs left at $6M a year) for a guy entering his peak years.
He scores, but is meh defensively. 5 year average of E +/- +2.6, respectable but nothing exciting.
In 25 playoff games, he has 1-5 6 at ES, we already have enough highly paid guys not scoring in the POs.

Problem is he'll cost an arm and a leg, something like Frost and Myers.
And he won't be a big of an upgrade to justify the cost.
We already have Giroux, Lindblom, Farabee, Laughton, JVR at LW.

 

[CutOnDime97]

Why? He's a good player, but what does he bring that the Flyers need?
He's got a great contract (4yrs left at $6M a year) for a guy entering his peak years.
He scores, but is meh defensively. 5 year average of E +/- +2.6, respectable but nothing exciting.
In 25 playoff games, he has 1-5 6 at ES, we already have enough highly paid guys not scoring in the POs.

Problem is he'll cost an arm and a leg, something like Frost and Myers.
And he won't be a big of an upgrade to justify the cost.
We already have Giroux, Lindblom, Farabee, Laughton, JVR at LW.

He fast

 

[Ghosts Beer]

NO. DON'T WANT LAINE, PERIOD.

If your goal is to win a Cup, you don't want to pay big money to scorers who don't play defense.
Flyers were 8th in goals scored last season, Patrick may return, Frost and Farabee should be better, Brink is around the corner and the bottom six is getting younger, deeper and faster. And the young D-men should improve as O-zone attack guys.

So move on. Nothing here to see.

I get your point, but Ovechkin won a Cup. So did Patrick Kane. So did Tarasenko. Briere was a great playoff player. Kucherov is no defensive stud. You can win with one or two of those guys if they’re good enough offensively.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Why? He's a good player, but what does he bring that the Flyers need?
He's got a great contract (4yrs left at $6M a year) for a guy entering his peak years.
He scores, but is meh defensively. 5 year average of E +/- +2.6, respectable but nothing exciting.
In 25 playoff games, he has 1-5 6 at ES, we already have enough highly paid guys not scoring in the POs.

Problem is he'll cost an arm and a leg, something like Frost and Myers.
And he won't be a big of an upgrade to justify the cost.
We already have Giroux, Lindblom, Farabee, Laughton, JVR at LW.

Did you see what Barzal did to the Flyers? Flying through the NZ, getting the Flyers’ D on their heels? The Flyers had no one who could do that. That’s what Ehlers would bring. (Also what Gaudreau would bring.)

 

[Rebels57]

How about Ehlers

Interested for sure depending on cost.

Dont see how we could land him without moving 1 of Farabee or Frost. Maybe they'd be into Brink, but i'd be hesitant to move him too.

I'd offer something like Ghost + Laczynski and call it a day.

 

[CutOnDime97]

Interested for sure depending on cost.

Dont see how we could land him without moving 1 of Farabee or Frost. Maybe they'd be into Brink, but i'd be hesitant to move him too.

I'd offer something like Ghost + Laczynski and call it a day.

Ghost+Brink+ 2020 1st... EZ

 

[Rebels57]

Ghost+Brink+ 2020 1st... EZ

Too rich for my blood

 

[deadhead]

I get your point, but Ovechkin won a Cup. So did Patrick Kane. So did Tarasenko. Briere was a great playoff player. Kucherov is no defensive stud. You can win with one or two of those guys if they’re good enough offensively.

Laine isn't good enough offensively, maybe he blossoms, but when his shooting % declined from 18% his first two years to 12% his next two, his scoring went south. Maybe it's a fluke, or maybe the league saw he was dangerous and paid him more attention and he couldn't adjust. Last two seasons:
Laine 150 games, 35-39 74 at ES
TK 148 games, 39-40 79 at ES

TK's 17% shooting % this year is probably unsustainable, regression to 13% would cost him 4 goals, making his numbers almost exactly the same as Laine over the same period.
In other words, we already have a 23 year old scorer under a long-term deal who may be just as good.

Laine has a $6.75M cap hit in 2020-21, then you have to negotiate a new RFA deal.

TK is up and down at E +/-: +7.3, -4.8, +8.5 last three seasons
Laine has been terrible, E +/-: +1.0, -10.1, -10.1 over the same period

Laine has more upside, TK is more likely to reach his upside.

 

[deadhead]

Did you see what Barzal did to the Flyers? Flying through the NZ, getting the Flyers’ D on their heels? The Flyers had no one who could do that. That’s what Ehlers would bring. (Also what Gaudreau would bring.)

Barzal shows up in the playoffs, Ehlers and Gaudreau don't, that's a huge difference.

What makes Barzal special isn't his skating, skating is overrated in the playoffs, it was his puck handling, it's almost impossible to knock the puck off his stick, when the windows get smaller, the ability to handle contact and maintain possession becomes more important.

Now if Barzal became available, I'd be singing a different tune, Frost and 2 1st rd picks.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Laine isn't good enough offensively, maybe he blossoms, but when his shooting % declined from 18% his first two years to 12% his next two, his scoring went south. Maybe it's a fluke, or maybe the league saw he was dangerous and paid him more attention and he couldn't adjust. Last two seasons:
Laine 150 games, 35-39 74 at ES
TK 148 games, 39-40 79 at ES

TK's 17% shooting % this year is probably unsustainable, regression to 13% would cost him 4 goals, making his numbers almost exactly the same as Laine over the same period.
In other words, we already have a 23 year old scorer under a long-term deal who may be just as good.

Laine has a $6.75M cap hit in 2020-21, then you have to negotiate a new RFA deal.

TK is up and down at E +/-: +7.3, -4.8, +8.5 last three seasons
Laine has been terrible, E +/-: +1.0, -10.1, -10.1 over the same period

Laine has more upside, TK is more likely to reach his upside.

Laine, who only turned 22 in April, after the regular season was over, was on pace for ~33 goals & ~75 points. He’s already had a 44 goal season, & wouldn’t have a season under 30 goals but for Covid (& still had 28 in 68 & would’ve led the Flyers). This is all by his 21 y/o season. He’s only a year older than Frost & ridiculously more accomplished.

Plus you are ignoring his PP skill, which would be perhaps his greatest attribute to a Flyers team that desperately needs PP help.

I don’t think Laine is nearly the automatic no that you make him out to be.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Barzal shows up in the playoffs, Ehlers and Gaudreau don't, that's a huge difference.

What makes Barzal special isn't his skating, skating is overrated in the playoffs, it was his puck handling, it's almost impossible to knock the puck off his stick, when the windows get smaller, the ability to handle contact and maintain possession becomes more important.

Now if Barzal became available, I'd be singing a different tune, Frost and 2 1st rd picks.

I’ve been Barzal’s biggest fan since his draft year, when I constantly raved about him & wanted him at 7. But the fact that no one is quite Barzal doesn’t mean the Flyers don’t lack a dynamic offensive talent with speed who can blow through the NZ & back off the D. And Ehlers is just 24. You can’t just write him off as a perpetual playoff flop. He had 2 goals in 4 playoff games this season. Gaudreau had 4 goals in 10 playoff games this year. The Flyers could use that playoff goal scoring. You cite TK as a reason they don’t need any of these guys, & he’s been a worse playoff performer than all. 1 goal in 22 career playoff games.

 

[CutOnDime97]

I don't buy into the "playoff duds" narrative. TK can produce, Gaudreau can produce, Ehlers can produce.

 

[achdumeingute]

Laine, who only turned 22 in April, after the regular season was over, was on pace for ~33 goals & ~75 points. He’s already had a 44 goal season, & wouldn’t have a season under 30 goals but for Covid (& still had 28 in 68 & would’ve led the Flyers). This is all by his 21 y/o season. He’s only a year older than Frost & ridiculously more accomplished.

Plus you are ignoring his PP skill, which would be perhaps his greatest attribute to a Flyers team that desperately needs PP help.

I don’t think Laine is nearly the automatic no that you make him out to be.

he's lazy and gets by on his talent.

If we are going after a 1RW, I'd rather kick the tires on Boeser.

 

[Philly Fanatik]

Someway or somehow we need an offensive elite generational player that can play for the next 8-10 years!
Somebody to take us to the Cup!

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

he's lazy and gets by on his talent.

If we are going after a 1RW, I'd rather kick the tires on Boeser.

And that's a GM who is eminently fleeceable, meaning Hagg --> Vancouver is an actual possibility, especially considering the recent comments about them wanting to get bigger back there. (Little do they know that he's as soft as a kitten's diarrhea.) Problem is, we'd have to want to sell, and we don't.

 

[Striiker]

And that's a GM who is eminently fleeceable, meaning Hagg --> Vancouver is an actual possibility, especially considering the recent comments about them wanting to get bigger back there. (Little do they know that he's as soft as a kitten's diarrhea.) Problem is, we'd have to want to sell, and we don't.

But so is ours so it's really a 50/50 gamble.

 

[deadhead]

Laine might get you 3-4 more goals on the PP, but he's unlikely ever to duplicate his sophomore season again (20 PP goals), fluke years like that are rarely repeated. So if he replaced a 6-8 goal guy and give you 10-12, what's that worth?

At even strength, he's a net liability, even if you adjust for him scoring above his expected value. He's that bad defensively.

Ehlers is a better player than Laine, but he's still more scorer than player, and has been around long enough that it's unlikely to change - with Barzal, you have someone who accepted Trotz and worked at becoming a top two way center. Same with Nico. Their numbers may never be as flashy (Barzal lost 20 points a season with Trotz as HC), but their overall impact is greater.

And yes, once you get to 20-30 games, a lack of playoff production should be concerning, it suggests your skills may not translate to an environment with smaller windows and more physical play - whereas someone like Point, despite his slight frame, has 15 ES goals in 41 playoff games.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

he's lazy and gets by on his talent.

If we are going after a 1RW, I'd rather kick the tires on Boeser.

Fine with me. Has the same laser shot.

 

[Stizzle]

Ghost+Brink+ 2020 1st... EZ

 

[flyersnorth]

Couple interesting notes this morning.

Jordan Hall writes that it's looking more likely that the Flyers will resign Pitlick.

Charlie mentions that JVR is no longer on TSN's trade bait list, and that at least internally, there's a feeling that he's less likely to be moved than Ghost. Only if the right deal comes along.

 

[DancingPanther]

I'm resigned to the fact that no one knows the difference between resign and re-sign.

If we're lucky, Michel Therein will resign.

 

[Prongo]

I'm resigned to the fact that no one knows the difference between resign and re-sign.

If we're lucky, Michel Therein will resign.

That (-) is just a bitch to type on the phone. That’s why I usually don’t use it or just use a space between. Cuz I’m lazy.

 

[Prongo]

Couple interesting notes this morning.

Jordan Hall writes that it's looking more likely that the Flyers will resign Pitlick.

Charlie mentions that JVR is no longer on TSN's trade bait list, and that at least internally, there's a feeling that he's less likely to be moved than Ghost. Only if the right deal comes along.

Literally not the offseason I was envisioning.

 

[Prongo]

Hoping the flyers can re-sign Myers in the 1.75-2.25 range on a bridge. They most likely will look short term with him.