135ace
Registered User
- Mar 18, 2015
- 1,734
- 850
Even if you have the "best" lottery odds, you're actually statistically most likely to drop 3 spots. Same as the team with #2 odds.
So if you move up any spots, or only drop a spot, you've actually done well.
Actually, with the 2nd worst records you're most likely to drop 2 spots not 3. I think the odds you drop 3 spots fall to about 25% from 50% if you finish with the worst record. And if you finish with the 3rd worst odds it's even more unlikely to drop 3 spots. I think it's safe to say that we're pretty much on track for a bottom 3 finish and top 5 pick.