NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion

[LeProspector]

Three real good players the Windsor Spitfires have that Ottawa can target with San Jose’s pick.
C-Jean-Luc Foudy: GP: 9 G:3 A:4
LW- Will Cuylle: GP:9 G:1 A:3
D- Ruben Rafkin: GP: 9 G:1 A:8

 

[Que]

I still have a feeling San Jose is going to win the cup this year. That’s what I want for them (and Erik). They deserve it. I don’t want to have negative feelings towards another franchise to get a more advantageous draft position. I’m sure I’ve posted on here contradicting that very sentiment but honestly, I’d rather see the Sharks win than lose.

Plus, drafting back to back 31st and 32nd is always fun.

Whoever gets Byfield is going to have an Canadian Malkin for the next two decades.

 

[TheDebater]

I could be way off but I have always been weary about drafting "big" players who have had success against smaller players in junior. When Malkin was drafted, he was big, but he was also playing against men and not boys.

We have had our own examples of drafting big players who had success in juniors only to struggle against men their size in the NHL and off the top of my head I am thinking of guys like Jared Cowan, Logan Brown and although not as big, Cody Ceci.

Not suggesting Byfield is only dominating due to his size because he does have a ton of skill, but I have no watched him enough to formulate a prognosis on whether or not he is gaining an advantage currently due to physical strength over actual hockey sense.

 

[MatchesMalone]

I could be way off but I have always been weary about drafting "big" players who have had success against smaller players in junior. When Malkin was drafted, he was big, but he was also playing against men and not boys.

We have had our own examples of drafting big players who had success in juniors only to struggle against men their size in the NHL and off the top of my head I am thinking of guys like Jared Cowan, Logan Brown and although not as big, Cody Ceci.

Not suggesting Byfield is only dominating due to his size because he does have a ton of skill, but I have no watched him enough to formulate a prognosis on whether or not he is gaining an advantage currently due to physical strength over actual hockey sense.

Reasonable. But just watch his highlights. He makes absurd plays.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

I still have a feeling San Jose is going to win the cup this year. That’s what I want for them (and Erik). They deserve it. I don’t want to have negative feelings towards another franchise to get a more advantageous draft position. I’m sure I’ve posted on here contradicting that very sentiment but honestly, I’d rather see the Sharks win than lose.

Plus, drafting back to back 31st and 32nd is always fun.

Whoever gets Byfield is going to have an Canadian Malkin for the next two decades.

I truly don’t care. That fanbase has had a lot of excitement over the years at the Sens’ expense.

I don’t necessarily have anything against them, but I wouldn’t feel bad at all if we get a high pick because of a bad Sharks season.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Alexander Holtz was sent down from SHL to SuperElit and scored a hat trick his first game. I'm starting to think this guy might be the favorite for third overall.

Frölunda is still playing Raymond mostly 8-12 mins a night. Right now I'd call it,

Lafrenniere
Byfield
Holtz
Stützle
Raymond
Askarov
Lundell
Drysdale
Savoie
Perfetti

Can't wait for World Juniors. Holtz and Raymond will be there for Sweden. Lafrenniere and Byfield for Canada.

Germany could be a serious team with Seider, Bokk, Stützle. I could legit see Askarov winning the starting job for Russia already.

Lassi Thomson and Anton Lundell will lead Finland.

Gonna be a lot of fun for Sens fans too. Gruden and Pinto have a good shot at Team USA, and JBD is a lock for Canada; and Tychonick has an outside chance.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I still have a feeling San Jose is going to win the cup this year. That’s what I want for them (and Erik). They deserve it. I don’t want to have negative feelings towards another franchise to get a more advantageous draft position. I’m sure I’ve posted on here contradicting that very sentiment but honestly, I’d rather see the Sharks win than lose.

Plus, drafting back to back 31st and 32nd is always fun.

Whoever gets Byfield is going to have an Canadian Malkin for the next two decades.

I want the sens to have two super high draft picks... for that to happen the sharks need to be terrible.. that's as far as my feelings go on the subject.. I don't care about their fans

 

[Sweatred]

I could be way off but I have always been weary about drafting "big" players who have had success against smaller players in junior. When Malkin was drafted, he was big, but he was also playing against men and not boys.

We have had our own examples of drafting big players who had success in juniors only to struggle against men their size in the NHL and off the top of my head I am thinking of guys like Jared Cowan, Logan Brown and although not as big, Cody Ceci.

Not suggesting Byfield is only dominating due to his size because he does have a ton of skill, but I have no watched him enough to formulate a prognosis on whether or not he is gaining an advantage currently due to physical strength over actual hockey sense.

Check out his foot speed -

 

[Johnny Hanson]

Alexander Holtz was sent down from SHL to SuperElit and scored a hat trick his first game. I'm starting to think this guy might be the favorite for third overall.

Pronman came out with his rankings this morning via The Athletic and he has Holtz 3rd overall now.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

I still have a feeling San Jose is going to win the cup this year. That’s what I want for them (and Erik). They deserve it. I don’t want to have negative feelings towards another franchise to get a more advantageous draft position. I’m sure I’ve posted on here contradicting that very sentiment but honestly, I’d rather see the Sharks win than lose.

Plus, drafting back to back 31st and 32nd is always fun.

Whoever gets Byfield is going to have an Canadian Malkin for the next two decades.

At this point I want to be selfish and hope they finish near the bottom to better our draft pick. Have nothing against their fans or the organization but I want whats best for the team I cheer for.

I will always feel this way

 

[operasen]

And I hope we get another 1st without losing our current mix of draft choices, including 3 2nds. Trading a guy like DeMelo and adding the piece(s) required to get one would be the way to go. If we lost a Carcone, Chlapik or Davidsson in order to sweeten that deal we should. Daccord could be interesting for Arizona. DeMelo, Tierney, Daccord for their 1st...

Keep the AHL core though of Brown, Norris, Formenton, Abramov, Batherson, Kelly, Jaros, LaJoie, Wolanin, Hogberg and Gustavsson. Verroneau?

 

[stempniaksen]

The top of this draft is still very deep, but it would be disappointing to not end up with one of the top-two guys, imo. Mentally prepping myself for one of the Swedes, but they just don't move the needle like the top two guys.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

I just can't see the Sharks being a terrible team but any team could miss the playoffs. I'd be pretty darn happy if they gave us a 10-15 OA pick.

We leave the first round with Byfield and Drsydale/Barron.

Then if someone with huge upside is falling later in the 1st round then you package a couple of 2nds and move up to get your guy. We need top line quality players at this point. Our depth is looking strong for the future but we desperately need some star power.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

The top of this draft is still very deep, but it would be disappointing to not end up with one of the top-two guys, imo. Mentally prepping myself for one of the Swedes, but they just don't move the needle like the top two guys.

I suck at math but even if you are dead last, you are more likely than not to not draft first overall are you not?

As depressing as it may be, we shouldn't expect to draft in the top 2 despite the fact that we could have a historically bad season.

 

[aragorn]

The Sharks continue to be pretenders as they always have been & given that this team continues to get older I think they will be lucky to make the playoffs & should be knocked out in the first rd.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-draft-risers-october/
https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-draft-fallers-october/

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Colin Cudmore's spreadsheet provides a consensus ranking of 46 sources

 

[Cosmix]

I still have a feeling San Jose is going to win the cup this year. That’s what I want for them (and Erik). They deserve it. I don’t want to have negative feelings towards another franchise to get a more advantageous draft position. I’m sure I’ve posted on here contradicting that very sentiment but honestly, I’d rather see the Sharks win than lose.

Plus, drafting back to back 31st and 32nd is always fun.

Whoever gets Byfield is going to have an Canadian Malkin for the next two decades.

I support my home town team, not one that got one of our best players ever. Given that we get that team's top draft pick for that trade, I am hoping it to be as high as possible, including #1 and result in a lottery pick win.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I suck at math but even if you are dead last, you are more likely than not to not draft first overall are you not?

As depressing as it may be, we shouldn't expect to draft in the top 2 despite the fact that we could have a historically bad season.

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but iirc, the highest probability (around 40%) is to select 4th if you finish last overall.

 

[stempniaksen]

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but iirc, the highest probability (around 40%) is to select 4th if you finish last overall.

It's actually closer to a 50/50 split.

1st: 18.5%
2nd: 16.5%
3rd: 14.4%
4th: 50.6%

So (slightly) higher odds the team will be drafting 4th if they finish last.

 

[Qward]

I suck at math but even if you are dead last, you are more likely than not to not draft first overall are you not?

As depressing as it may be, we shouldn't expect to draft in the top 2 despite the fact that we could have a historically bad season.

You can look at it like this, dead last has an 18.5% chance to get the first overall, but they also have an 81.5% chance to not get it.

 

[Qward]

It's actually closer to a 50/50 split.

1st: 18.5%
2nd: 16.5%
3rd: 14.4%
4th: 50.6%

So (slightly) higher odds the team will be drafting 4th if they finish last.

I would not even bother counting the odds for 4th pick since only the top 3 are lotto picks.

The odds are set for the 1st pick. Redone for the second pick and redone again for the third pick. Removing any team awarded a pick from the lotto.
After the three picks are set, the draft order is set to what it was after the regular season was completed.

 

[stempniaksen]

I would not even bother counting the odds for 4th pick since only the top 3 are lotto picks.

The odds are set for the 1st pick. Redone for the second pick and redone again for the third pick. Removing any team awarded a pick from the lotto.
After the three picks are set, the draft order is set to what it was after the regular season was completed.

It's mostly just to illustrate that, even if this team bottoms out, we still have a <50% shot at a top-three pick.

It sounds like Holtz is making this is a 4 man group at the top, which is nice given the odds of "falling" to 4th (we're getting way ahead of ourselves here )

 

[RAFI BOMB]