NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion

[Cosmix]

Colin Cudmore's spreadsheet provides a consensus ranking of 46 sources

It would certainly be a thrill if the Senators were to get two picks in the top 6 of that list, and a miracle if they got 2 of the top 3.

 

[Cosmix]

It's actually closer to a 50/50 split.

1st: 18.5%
2nd: 16.5%
3rd: 14.4%
4th: 50.6%

So (slightly) higher odds the team will be drafting 4th if they finish last.

It's actually closer to a 50/50 split.

1st: 18.5%
2nd: 16.5%
3rd: 14.4%
4th: 50.6%

So (slightly) higher odds the team will be drafting 4th if they finish last.

The team finishing in last place would have a 100% probability of picking in the top 4 positions.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

It would certainly be a thrill if the Senators were to get two picks in the top 6 of that list, and a miracle if they got 2 of the top 3.

we will

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

The team finishing in last place would have a 100% probability of picking in the top 4 positions.

I think the problem is, even in a really nice deep draft, there definitely is a gap between the top pick and #4.

But...it's out of our hands. We pick where we pick, and we get who we get. Just hope our scouts do a good job and make the best picks possible.

 

[Qward]

Lafreniere is sitting at 29 pts in 11 games. My lawrd.

 

[Cosmix]

The top of this draft is still very deep, but it would be disappointing to not end up with one of the top-two guys, imo. Mentally prepping myself for one of the Swedes, but they just don't move the needle like the top two guys.

I hope the Senators get one of the top 2 picks in the draft; however the odds are against it, so my expectation is to get one of the top 6 and perhaps another pick in the top 15.

 

[Cosmix]

I suck at math but even if you are dead last, you are more likely than not to not draft first overall are you not?

As depressing as it may be, we shouldn't expect to draft in the top 2 despite the fact that we could have a historically bad season.

Yes, I believe the probability of drafting in the top 3 is not high even if you finish last.

 

[TheDebater]

Lafreniere is sitting at 29 pts in 11 games. My lawrd.

If I had the choice, I would almost prefer the Sens picked 2nd overall just to give the team picking 1st overall the unfortunate position of having to choose between Lafreniere and Byfield. I would hate to have to be the GM making that decision, not to suggest that one will be a bust, but at this point is very very difficult to choose between the two.

 

[Tuna99]

If I had the choice, I would almost prefer the Sens picked 2nd overall just to give the team picking 1st overall the unfortunate position of having to choose between Lafreniere and Byfield. I would hate to have to be the GM making that decision, not to suggest that one will be a bust, but at this point is very very difficult to choose between the two.

Daigle vs Pronger

 

[Cosmix]

we will

We willn’t.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Daigle vs Pronger

No one remembers number two.....

 

[Tuna99]

No one remembers number two.....

Exactly. Until you meet him in the Cup finals and he elbows one of your players into an early retirement.

 

[Viletho]

Yes, I believe the probability of drafting in the top 3 is not high even if you finish last.

From a page I found, if you finished last, you have something like 49,4% of picking top 3

This might not be exactly the round pourcentage, but it's near that for sure.

 

[SAK11]

If I had the choice, I would almost prefer the Sens picked 2nd overall just to give the team picking 1st overall the unfortunate position of having to choose between Lafreniere and Byfield. I would hate to have to be the GM making that decision, not to suggest that one will be a bust, but at this point is very very difficult to choose between the two.

Not me. Give me the choice. Some people thought Winnipeg had it good because they picked #2 and got Laine. While that was great, getting the option and taking Matthews would've been even better. Same with Buffalo getting Eichel #2. Awesome, but McDavid's clearly superior (it was the obvious pick by draft-time, but some considered it close at this point in their draft year). Maybe this is a Hall-Seguin debate where both guys end up being similarly great players, but at the very least, I'd want the choice and I'd trust my scouts to get it right. The top pick right now is Lafreniere for me.

 

[TheDebater]

Some food for thought here with regards to the decision on whether to draft the center or winger if picking 1st overall.

-Since 2000, only six wingers have been drafted 1st overall: Kovalchuk, Nash, Ovechkin, P. Kane, Hall, Yakupov (2012 the last time a winger was taken 1st)

- Two goalies (DiPietro and Fleury) and three defenseman (J. Johnson, Ekblad and Dahlin) have been taken 1st overall since 2000.

- The rest of the players drafted 1st overall since 2000 have been centers (9 centers): Crosby, Stamkos, Tavares, Nugent-Hopkins, Mackinnon, McDavid, Matthews, Hischier, Hughes.

- In those years where a center was not taken 1st overall, the following players were taken 2nd overall:

LW Heatley (2000), C Spezza (2001), G Lehtonen (2002), C Eric Staal (2003), C Malkin (2004), C Jordan Staal (2006), L Van Reimsdyk (2007), C Seguin (2010), D Ryan Murray (2012), C Reinhart (2014), RW Svechnikov (2018).

- Conversely, in the years (since 2000) where a center was taken 1st overall, the following players were taken 2nd overall:

RW Bobby Ryan (2005), D Doughty (2008), D Hedman (2009), LW Landeskog (2011), C Barkov (2013), C Eichel (2015), RW Laine (2016), C Patrick (2017), RW Kaako (2019).

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The reason I bring this up, is I believe there is a bit of science behind the draft when you look back over two decades and pick out some patterns. The 2020 draft at this point, appears to be a two horse race between Lafreniere and Byfield; one is a winger, the other a center. If you jump to the future and play out two scenarios where they each go #1, by looking at the above information I provided might lend a peak as to the type of player the team getting at #2 might receive. If Lafrieniere goes #1, he then joins the company of Kovalchuk, Nash, Ovechkin, P. Kane, T. Hall and Yakupov as wingers taken 1st overall since 2000, meaning that Byfield is then lumped into the above group consisting of Heatley, Spezza etc. Now you can do the reverse and play out the scenario of Byfield going 1st overall and then Lafreniere joins the Ryan, Doughty, Hedman etc. group above.

 

[Johnny Hanson]

I’ll be the first to admit I haven’t watched lafreniere at all, besides in the world junior last year where he played only a small role. Having said that, everything I’ve read about the guy claims that he skates really well, has great hockey IQ and has elite compete level. Why is it, then, that he can’t play centre? What is holding him back?

 

[BondraTime]

I’ll be the first to admit I haven’t watched lafreniere at all, besides in the world junior last year where he played only a small role. Having said that, everything I’ve read about the guy claims that he skates really well, has great hockey IQ and has elite compete level. Why is it, then, that he can’t play centre? What is holding him back?

Nothing, he wants to be a winger

 

[Johnny Hanson]

Nothing, he wants to be a winger

To use the most recent hockey buzz words, I guess If he can be a line driver from the wing, who cares which forward position he plays.

 

[JungleBeat]

I’m ready.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[Gil Gunderson]

If he keeps it up Stutzle will crack the top-3.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Holy shit. Yeah he's a clear top five at this point. I'd even say he's probably passed Holtz as the favorite for third overall.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Lafreniere, Byfield, Drysdale, Raymond and Stutzle is a stacked top 5

Last time there was a top 5 that good was 2015 with McDavid, Eichel, Strome, Marner and Hanifin

 

[Cosmix]

From a page I found, if you finished last, you have something like 49,4% of picking top 3

This might not be exactly the round pourcentage, but it's near that for sure.

Pretty good but still not “high” as in 80% chance, but higher than most others.

 

[JungleBeat]

Sens probably aren’t scouting the German league.