NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion

[RAFI BOMB]

Quinton Byfield with 2 goals and 2 assists today.
His stats are now 11 GP 10 G 14 A 24 PTS

To compare Alexis Lafreniere stats are 11 GP 9 G 20 A 29 PTS

These two are making a race out of it.

 

[Que]

I’m more excited for the 2nd round this year.

We have what is looking to be three of the top eight 2nd with our, Dallas’ and Columbus’.

Assuming San Jose has a good season and finishes in the bottom 1/5th - we’ll have four picks from 25 to 39 in a deep class.

Game. Changing.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Stützle with 13 in 11. I have the DEL at about 1.9x quality of the OHL, which would put him around 25 in 11. Of course Byfield still gets the edge because of size, but Stützle isn't far off from that group.

Holtz with 5 in 9. I have the SHL around 2.8x quality of the OHL, which would put Holtz at 17 in 11, one ahead of Perfetti going into tonight, but Perfetti had another four, and is now 20 in 12.

Yes, it's all very rough estimates of course, but I find it pretty useful.

 

[Alex1234]

Lafreniere is sitting at 29 pts in 11 games. My lawrd.

After 10 games in the Q (pre draft season):
Crosby 7-20=27
Lecavalier 10-16=26
Lafreniere (19-20) 8-17=25
Mackinnon 11-7=18
Hischier 3-4=7

So far so good for A Lafreniere

 

[SAK11]

Stützle with 13 in 11. I have the DEL at about 1.9x quality of the OHL, which would put him around 25 in 11. Of course Byfield still gets the edge because of size, but Stützle isn't far off from that group.

Holtz with 5 in 9. I have the SHL around 2.8x quality of the OHL, which would put Holtz at 17 in 11, one ahead of Perfetti going into tonight, but Perfetti had another four, and is now 20 in 12.

Yes, it's all very rough estimates of course, but I find it pretty useful.

Interesting way of doing things, how'd you come up with those numbers?

Perfetti's also been a little snakebit scoring goals. He's at 3 on 47 shots (just over 6%). By comparison, Byfield has 10 on 36 shots (28%). Last year, Perfetti scored on 22% while Byfield was at 16%. You'd have to figure both with see their shooting percentages end up at more normal levels by the end of the year. Perfetti outproduced him last year and I could see it happening again this year; he's a great offensive player.

Another guy that's been fantastic is Drysdale. He's a tremendous skater with top pairing potential. He's already scored 17 points in 11 games. One of my favourite prospects this year although it seems likely Ottawa will target a forward near the top.

 

[Alex1234]

Interesting way of doing things, how'd you come up with those numbers?

Perfetti's also been a little snakebit scoring goals. He's at 3 on 47 shots (just over 6%). By comparison, Byfield has 10 on 36 shots (28%). Last year, Perfetti scored on 22% while Byfield was at 16%. You'd have to figure both with see their shooting percentages end up at more normal levels by the end of the year. Perfetti outproduced him last year and I could see it happening again this year; he's a great offensive player.

Another guy that's been fantastic is Drysdale. He's a tremendous skater with top pairing potential. He's already scored 17 points in 11 games. One of my favourite prospects this year although it seems likely Ottawa will target a forward near the top.

Drysdale is insane
As is clarke for 2021

 

[OD99]

Another guy that's been fantastic is Drysdale. He's a tremendous skater with top pairing potential. He's already scored 17 points in 11 games. One of my favourite prospects this year although it seems likely Ottawa will target a forward near the top.

I agree that is most likely but I would not mind Drysdale if it came to it. Building from the net and through the D is not a bad thing if our hand is forced.

Chabot Drysdale
Wolanin JBD
Brannstrom Lacy
Jaros/Lajoie

I know that relies on kids fulfilling their potential but not unreasonable to think that could be an impressive D corps. All can skate and move the puck.

 

[Tuna99]

Today Ottawa would draft #3 and #10:

#3 Jamie Drysdale RD
#10 Justin Barron RD

 

[topshelf15]

So freaken torn between the top 2 guys,think this may be the best year to draft number 2 ,lol

 

[OD99]

Today Ottawa would draft #3 and #10:

#3 Jamie Drysdale RD
#10 Justin Barron RD

You think they take Drysdale if we have #3? I think we still go F.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Interesting way of doing things, how'd you come up with those numbers?

Perfetti's also been a little snakebit scoring goals. He's at 3 on 47 shots (just over 6%). By comparison, Byfield has 10 on 36 shots (28%). Last year, Perfetti scored on 22% while Byfield was at 16%. You'd have to figure both with see their shooting percentages end up at more normal levels by the end of the year. Perfetti outproduced him last year and I could see it happening again this year; he's a great offensive player.

Another guy that's been fantastic is Drysdale. He's a tremendous skater with top pairing potential. He's already scored 17 points in 11 games. One of my favourite prospects this year although it seems likely Ottawa will target a forward near the top.

Yup, Drysdale looks like a serious top five candidate. And I'm with y'all, Ottawa needs an elite forward, but I live or die by BPA.

To answer your question, I have just spent countless hours over many years searching "down the rabbit hole" on EliteProspects. Find a random player in a random league, look how he did in one league versus other leagues, check out other players in some of those other leagues, and with enough sample size you get a pretty good idea of which league is better and very broadly by how much - in my notes I categorize simply as "about even", "slightly better", "significantly better" and "drastically better".

I do my best to account for all sorts of different variables. I look mostly at seasons within the past five years or so, because league qualities are always changing. I prefer to look at mostly players in their seasons aged 22-29 or so, otherwise you're dealing with development or decline. Development is difficult to deal with, but of course it is unavoidable when trying to rank junior leagues. I try to account for difficulties transitioning from Europe to NA and vice versa, and the variables within that - smaller players tend have a harder time going from Europe to NA, and generally do much better going the other way.

So I've had a comprehensive league rankings for a few years now that I'm really happy with, but the idea of trying to precisely rate the leagues to use as stat multipliers is a newer project that is still very much a work in progress.

 

[Tuna99]

You think they take Drysdale if we have #3? I think we still go F.

I just base it off the Most recent ISS rating (which I consider the best prospect rating) - I doubt they take any D with the top 2 picks, forwards all the way

 

[Que]

Build from a position of strength to create a team identity.

We have a lot of good young defencemen and Drysdale would put that group over the top imo.

Hopefully someone like Stutzle falls to seven or eight and we can trade up to get him with our two extra 2nds and San Jose’s pick.

 

[BondraTime]

No chance we don't go with a forward with our pick, that would be beyond our normal shooting oneself in the foot

 

[MatchesMalone]

No chance we don't go with a forward with our pick, that would be beyond our normal shooting oneself in the foot

Ever heard of trades?

 

[Hale The Villain]

No chance we don't go with a forward with our pick, that would be beyond our normal shooting oneself in the foot

If we have Drysdale firmly ranked 3rd, which is reasonable considering he clearly has #1 D potential, I don't see why we should pass on him if selecting outside of the top 2.

Would love to become Nashville North with an absolutely stacked blueline. Proven way to be a successful budget franchise.

 

[BondraTime]

Ever heard of trades?

Sure have. The problem with trading, both at the draft and outside the draft, is teams that can select these guys at the draft won't trade down, and guys like that rarely become available for a fair trade throughout the year.

We have no star talent up front at all, we have extremely little skill, which is very evident.

This draft is littered with skilled forwards in the top 7/8, all of whom are ranked there accordingly.

We will be selecting a forward with our top pick this year, I'm extremely, extremely sure.

 

[SAK11]

If we have Drysdale firmly ranked 3rd, which is reasonable considering he clearly has #1 D potential, I don't see why we should pass on him if selecting outside of the top 2.

Would love to become Nashville North with an absolutely stacked blueline. Proven way to be a successful budget franchise.

While I'd have to believe Ottawa will be focusing on the top end forwards given their lack of talent up front, I agree with this line of thinking. Don't pass on a potential #1 D because you have a few potential second pairing d-men in your system. With all the high-end forwards in this draft, though, if it's close between how they view those guys and Drysdale, they'd take the forward.

 

[Hale The Villain]

While I'd have to believe Ottawa will be focusing on the top end forwards given their lack of talent up front, I agree with this line of thinking. Don't pass on a potential #1 D because you have a few potential second pairing d-men in your system. With all the high-end forwards in this draft, though, if it's close between how they view those guys and Drysdale, they'd take the forward.

I agree that if it's a toss-up between a guy like Drysdale and one of the top forwards, they'll probably just go with the forward.

I do think Drysdale could cement himself as the consensus best option besides Lafreniere and Byfield though.

17P in 11GP. Incredible skater, very smart, great hands and passing ability. Has everything you want in a top D prospect besides size (5'11).

Ignoring Dahlin in 2018, he's arguably the best D prospect to come around since Hedman.

 

[Que]

Chabot - Drysdale
Brannstrom - Thomson
Tychonick - Bernard-Docker
Wolanin - Jaros

Would easily be one of the best young defensive cores in the NHL. Likely the best.

Also, even if we get pick 3, 4 or 5 the depth at the top of this draft will allow us to trade up to #2 if we want. This draft class is phenomenal.

 

[OD99]

I just base it off the Most recent ISS rating (which I consider the best prospect rating) - I doubt they take any D with the top 2 picks, forwards all the way

Oh, I hadn't realised Drysdale had moved to 3!

Like i said, no issue if we have to take a D that is looking like a top 3 down the line...strong D in today's NHL that ca push offense is mandatory for success.

Plus we have other picks to get F...we should also have next year with early pick.

 

[Tuna99]

Oh, I hadn't realised Drysdale had moved to 3!

Like i said, no issue if we have to take a D that is looking like a top 3 down the line...strong D in today's NHL that ca push offense is mandatory for success.

Plus we have other picks to get F...we should also have next year with early pick.

I feel like our D is built (in 3 years). This looks good to me:

Chabot - Zaitsev
brannstrom - JBD
Wolanin - Scottish Finn Guy
Lajoie - Jaros

Also like how PD loaded up on D so they’ll be mature when this years crop of rookie forwards we take will be ready. Brannstrom, JBD and Thomson all seem to be ready for full time action in 2 years

 

[Cosmix]

I agree that is most likely but I would not mind Drysdale if it came to it. Building from the net and through the D is not a bad thing if our hand is forced.

Chabot Drysdale
Wolanin JBD
Brannstrom Lacy
Jaros/Lajoie

I know that relies on kids fulfilling their potential but not unreasonable to think that could be an impressive D corps. All can skate and move the puck.

The top 6 of the Senators is currently a void, and the prospects for those positions are not sure-things. I would much rather take a forward or 2 as first round picks in the draft next year.

 

[Cosmix]

Ever heard of trades?

Yes, we have seen Dorion in action.

 

[DJB]

I agree that if it's a toss-up between a guy like Drysdale and one of the top forwards, they'll probably just go with the forward.

I do think Drysdale could cement himself as the consensus best option besides Lafreniere and Byfield though.

17P in 11GP. Incredible skater, very smart, great hands and passing ability. Has everything you want in a top D prospect besides size (5'11).

Ignoring Dahlin in 2018, he's arguably the best D prospect to come around since Hedman.

Isn't Dorion on record in the past that if they have two players rated evenly they take the D man? Pretty sure I remember that.