Salary Cap: 2020-21 Lightning Roster Discussion | Part 2

[Leadzedder]

You make it sound like we aren't doing anything for you with a Johnson and Zetterberg trade. Sure we get a good amount of capspace doing that deal, which we need, but we are also providing you with something useful for 5M instead of it being wasted with Zetterberg on LTIR. Sure you could use the 5M Johnson makes and sign Hoffman or Granlund but you haven't so it appears they don't want to go there. You could just let Zetterbergs contract just run out this year and not take Johnson but Johnson will make you better and you will get assets in the deal. Not sure what those will be but I don't think it'll be a massive overpay, maybe 1st + lesser prospect or 2nd + better one. Either way a deal between the two isn't just you doing us a favor, you will be benefiting as well.

Nah. Detroit’s goal this year is a top 3 pick again. Zetterbergs contract means nothing to us. Backloaded. Actual cash is 1 million this year which is probably paid by insurance. His cap hit means nothing to us.

Johnson makes us a better team. No doubt. But is that the goal. You can apply as much lipstick on the pig as you like, this is a deal to help TB. And there will be a cost.

And regarding, the Z contract if you think that’s for Detroit’s benefit, you don’t understand why it’s being talked about.

anyway, I’ll jump out of your forum.

look into it. Could be huge for you guys.

 

[Dr Quincy]

Not that I can see. I don't think it's likely either. And plus look at the damn thread. One guy wants Johnson, Killorn, 1st, prospect just to take back Z's LTIR contract. f*** that noise. Buying Johnson out, trading Paquette and seeing what our options are with Killorn to a team like Nashville or LA is 1000 times more preferable. The only reason the Lightning are in such a crappy position is due to COVID. On that note, we're gonna be just fine and HF is just over-exaggerating again.


If that division LeBrun mentioned is true I don't see how our odds of a playoff berth aren't 90%+ barring injuries

Not possible at this point.

 

[NatoGhost]

Totally wrong dude.

Dont think his 6m would save us an additional 6m. It would only allow us to avoid HIS 6m as a cap hit.

So 5m TJ savings.

6m to be paid for Zetterberg and that 6m could be LTIR so avoid the cap hit.

But net 5m savings from TJ not 11.

 

[Leadzedder]

Dont think his 6m would save us an additional 6m. It would only allow us to avoid HIS 6m as a cap hit.

So 5m TJ savings.

6m to be paid for Zetterberg and that 6m could be LTIR so avoid the cap hit.

But net 5m savings from TJ not 11.

I typed an explanation on the trade board post. I don’t think I’m wrong. We have a thread in the Detroit board that links to LTIR explanation that might help as well.

I’m sure that if you’re right, adding it wouldn’t even be in the conversation. Does nothing for either team. 1 mil vs 20 mil? Nah.

 

[BoltzManConstant]

I typed an explanation on the trade board post. I don’t think I’m wrong. We have a thread in the Detroit board that links to LTIR explanation that might help as well.

I’m sure that if you’re right, adding it wouldn’t even be in the conversation. Does nothing for either team. 1 mil vs 20 mil? Nah.

You're absolutely wrong.

Best case scenario is that you get to completely ignore any contracts on LTIR. Alternatively, if you weren't using all available cap space with healthy guys, you can screw yourself with LTIR, but under some circumstances you can unscrew yourself by adding more LTIR. It still doesn't magically make cap space appear, and you still can never exceed the cap based on the total salary of guys who are healthy. If acquiring guys to go on LTIR has helped Detroit in the past, then it was because they were in the unscrew-themselves-from-existing-LTIR-dead-cap situation.

That situation most definitely does not apply to Tampa.

You're wrong, and you need to stop telling our posters that they're wrong.

 

[BoltzManConstant]

Let’s just get it over with!

https://thehockeywriters.com/lightning-should-consider-salary-dump-trade/

That's way too much to give up to get rid of Johnson. Keep Johnson, trade Cirelli and Killorn for assets and keep the assets he wants us to give up to move Johnson.

I like Cirelli but he's not worth all that.

 

[Sky04]

That's way too much to give up to get rid of Johnson. Keep Johnson, trade Cirelli and Killorn for assets and keep the assets he wants us to give up to move Johnson.

I like Cirelli but he's not worth all that.

It's Cirelli Cernak AND whoever else they need to move to fit under the cap. We can't ice a full roster just moving Killorn, I'd rather cut some futures than gut a team in contention right now.

It's not about Cirelli.......it's about capspace. We're 1.9m over the cap right now with 12F, 5D NOT including Cirelli and Cernak, trading just Killorn & Cirelli doesn't do much considering Cirelli doesn't carry a cap hit at the moment, we'd be down to 11F, 5D and 2.55m in capspace to sign 3 players minimum, inlcuding Cernak who would surely take up almost all of that.

 

[HoseEmDown]

My understanding of why we would want Zetterberg. We are over by 1.9M so trading Johnson opens up 3.1M which isn't enough to sign the RFA's we need to. We can use that 3.1M to sign Cernak and Volkov but we have no cap left to sign Cirelli, Joseph and maybe Rutta. If we put Zetterberg on LTIR we have up to 6M in potential cap we can go over the limit. So we would need to be able to sign those 3 players for that money or less which should be doable. I think the reason they want Zetterberg is so they can keep Killorn cause if we don't get that 6M cushion we would need to move Killorn to get the extra space needed to fill the roster. The only question I have is what happens with guys like Foote, Schenn or another forward who we may bring up since we may be able to carry more players. Not sure how that cap works and how LTIR would affect those.

Going over the cap and into LTIR is not ideal but it's possible and saves us from having to move multiple players which keeps us as favorites still. We are going to lose assets in a Johnson trade so hopefully we can make a deal that doesn't hurt too bad. With us being over the cap and not much coming off next summer we will need to make more moves next season. The expansion draft will also be an issue as we will lose someone good there or have to move assets to have them take someone else. All these moves will cost assets to an already thin prospect pool. So I can see our window staying open but we will need our stars to be able to keep carrying us with lesser depth kinda like Crosby and Malkin do.

 

[Byrddog]

So you think that even trading Johnson and Killorn isn't enough open space to sign Cirelli and Cernak? The solution is to use Cirelli to dump Johnson and then still trade Killorn? What are then planning on doing with all that cap signing Cernak for 7M?

We also aren't forced to trade Johnson only and definitely not make a bad deal to do so. It's unlikely we trade them but Vasilevskiy and Point don't have any trade protections so could be moved. Sergachev can still be traded. We can ask other players if they'll waive. We are going to have to add assets to move Johnson but one of those assets won't be Cirelli.

You can get both signed trading Killer and Johnson the problem is then you are at 19 players players still. So move out 9.5 we are 1.9 mil over right now so you have 7.6 to complete the roster. 4 for Cirelli and 2 for Cernak you have 1.6 and 21 guys on the roster. At a minimum you have to replace Johnny and Killer and you have Volkov and Joseph needing contracts and neither fit the holes from Johnson or Killer common think is that ABB will jump in to that second line ABB knocks off 759k of your 1.6 so you have 900k left two unsigned RFA's and sitting at the bare minimum 22 players Foote still sitting in the AHL too coming into a season where moving players up and down is going to be difficult to impossible. There is negations to allow a covid roster which most likely will pass but it is not exempt from CAP. Then there is no cap left to make a add to cover a injured player or a deadline tweek. And all of this depends on jumping over 10 other teams that need to get cap compliant themselves and a group of UFA's needing contracts. Time is short we can expect something to happen this week. Our best trading partner remains Detroit but you have to deal with Stevie Y something we have some experience with. I said is before and here it is again Any trade with the Wings for relief is not going to be popular Yzerman is going to win the trade Big or it is not going to happen. He is not in a position where either Killorn or Johnson is going to help his progress in the rebuild, however adding Cirelli to one of them provides him a young center that will fit in. He is not going to give relief for Johnson and a 1st and or prospects that does nothing for him. He can peddle his cap relief to other teams and get return there. It just happens that we are in the weakest spot in the league now when it comes to what still needs to get done and options to do so. So any solution is not going to be popular.

 

[HoseEmDown]

You can get both signed trading Killer and Johnson the problem is then you are at 19 players players still. So move out 9.5 we are 1.9 mil over right now so you have 7.6 to complete the roster. 4 for Cirelli and 2 for Cernak you have 1.6 and 21 guys on the roster. At a minimum you have to replace Johnny and Killer and you have Volkov and Joseph needing contracts and neither fit the holes from Johnson or Killer common think is that ABB will jump in to that second line ABB knocks off 759k of your 1.6 so you have 900k left two unsigned RFA's and sitting at the bare minimum 22 players Foote still sitting in the AHL too coming into a season where moving players up and down is going to be difficult to impossible. There is negations to allow a covid roster which most likely will pass but it is not exempt from CAP. Then there is no cap left to make a add to cover a injured player or a deadline tweek. And all of this depends on jumping over 10 other teams that need to get cap compliant themselves and a group of UFA's needing contracts. Time is short we can expect something to happen this week. Our best trading partner remains Detroit but you have to deal with Stevie Y something we have some experience with. I said is before and here it is again Any trade with the Wings for relief is not going to be popular Yzerman is going to win the trade Big or it is not going to happen. He is not in a position where either Killorn or Johnson is going to help his progress in the rebuild, however adding Cirelli to one of them provides him a young center that will fit in. He is not going to give relief for Johnson and a 1st and or prospects that does nothing for him. He can peddle his cap relief to other teams and get return there. It just happens that we are in the weakest spot in the league now when it comes to what still needs to get done and options to do so. So any solution is not going to be popular.

If you sign Cirelli at 4, Cernak at 2 with Joseph and Volkov at 700k then you're set with a 22 man roster but just 6 D. If they expand the roster for Covid they have to expand the cap. There's no way you can tell teams they can have 26 guys but still need to be at 81.5, there has to be a bump in cap or those players or else all but a few teams would benefit from that. But that's with trading Johnson and Killorn which I don't think BriseBois wants, I think he wants to keep Killorn which is where the Zetterberg LTIR would allow that.

We aren't trading Cirelli to move Johnson that's just dumb and pointless as we are trading Johnson for the cap to sign Cirelli. If the ask is Cirelli then we move on to someone who will want what we have to offer. Yzerman isn't going to want Killorn for his team, he will use Killorn to just acquire more assets they will take him for cheap, retain on him and get a bigger return. Johnson isn't helping their rebuild but neither are guys like Namestnikov, Filpulla and Ryan who they've signed in the past year. Those are players who keep you somewhat competitive each night so your prospects aren't getting crapped on each game. You want to lose to get a top pick but you want to donit competitively so your young players don't get a stink on them like some of the Edmonton kids did from their rebuild. Plus Johnson could easily be gone after next year to Seattle so Yzerman won't really care anymore as he gets him as a one year rental with assets attached.

 

[BoltzManConstant]

It's Cirelli Cernak AND whoever else they need to move to fit under the cap. We can't ice a full roster just moving Killorn, I'd rather cut some futures than gut a team in contention right now.

It's not about Cirelli.......it's about capspace. We're 1.9m over the cap right now with 12F, 5D NOT including Cirelli and Cernak, trading just Killorn & Cirelli doesn't do much considering Cirelli doesn't carry a cap hit at the moment, we'd be down to 11F, 5D and 2.55m in capspace to sign 3 players minimum, inlcuding Cernak who would surely take up almost all of that.

Nah.

You move Paquette in addition to Killer to free up $1.6m and you're at $4.2m to sign four guys.

Would probably be something like 1-year, $1.5m deal for Cernak, but JBB would get it done. So being unable to trade Johnson doesn't cost you both Cernak and Cirelli, just Cirelli.

Or if you can't trade Paquette or you can't get Cernak done for just $1.5-ish in then you ride with the minimum 20-man roster... there are going to be special Covid rules in place because we can't send guys between AHL and NHL that might make that more feasible than it seems. Even if not, all we need to do is get through the RS in the top half of the league, then we can put anyone we want on roster in the playoffs.
Again, being unable to trade Johnson won't cost you both Cernak and Cirelli.

That hypothetical trade I originally referenced is too much to give up just to keep Cirelli, when compared against what we'd get back for the rights to Cirelli, and I'm confident that JBB won't do it.

 

[BoltzManConstant]

My understanding of why we would want Zetterberg. We are over by 1.9M so trading Johnson opens up 3.1M which isn't enough to sign the RFA's we need to. We can use that 3.1M to sign Cernak and Volkov but we have no cap left to sign Cirelli, Joseph and maybe Rutta. If we put Zetterberg on LTIR we have up to 6M in potential cap we can go over the limit. So we would need to be able to sign those 3 players for that money or less which should be doable. I think the reason they want Zetterberg is so they can keep Killorn cause if we don't get that 6M cushion we would need to move Killorn to get the extra space needed to fill the roster. The only question I have is what happens with guys like Foote, Schenn or another forward who we may bring up since we may be able to carry more players. Not sure how that cap works and how LTIR would affect those.

Going over the cap and into LTIR is not ideal but it's possible and saves us from having to move multiple players which keeps us as favorites still. We are going to lose assets in a Johnson trade so hopefully we can make a deal that doesn't hurt too bad. With us being over the cap and not much coming off next summer we will need to make more moves next season. The expansion draft will also be an issue as we will lose someone good there or have to move assets to have them take someone else. All these moves will cost assets to an already thin prospect pool. So I can see our window staying open but we will need our stars to be able to keep carrying us with lesser depth kinda like Crosby and Malkin do.

You're simply wrong about how LTIR works. Picking up Zetterberg puts us an additional $6m over the cap. Putting him on LTIR gives us a $6m credit we can use. Together, that gives us a net zero in additional cap space.

The historical situations where picking up a guy to put him on IR benefited the team was in situations where they already had a guy on LTIR and needed to hold cap space open that would've gotten lost to the vagaries of the LTIR rules (e.g. Marner holdout) or other very specific situations.

It helps us not at all.

 

[Sky04]

Nah.

You move Paquette in addition to Killer to free up $1.6m and you're at $4.2m to sign four guys.

Would probably be something like 1-year, $1.5m deal for Cernak, but JBB would get it done. So being unable to trade Johnson doesn't cost you both Cernak and Cirelli, just Cirelli.

Or if you can't trade Paquette or you can't get Cernak done for just $1.5-ish in then you ride with the minimum 20-man roster... there are going to be special Covid rules in place because we can't send guys between AHL and NHL that might make that more feasible than it seems. Even if not, all we need to do is get through the RS in the top half of the league, then we can put anyone we want on roster in the playoffs.
Again, being unable to trade Johnson won't cost you both Cernak and Cirelli.

That hypothetical trade I originally referenced is too much to give up just to keep Cirelli, when compared against what we'd get back for the rights to Cirelli, and I'm confident that JBB won't do it.

Nah, a 1st, a 2nd a B-prospect is worth Cirelli and 5m in capspace. Nobody rides a minimum 20 man roster in NHL, your idea requires moving at least 4 players to keep Johnson and make our roster worse.

 

[mouser]

My understanding of why we would want Zetterberg. We are over by 1.9M so trading Johnson opens up 3.1M which isn't enough to sign the RFA's we need to. We can use that 3.1M to sign Cernak and Volkov but we have no cap left to sign Cirelli, Joseph and maybe Rutta. If we put Zetterberg on LTIR we have up to 6M in potential cap we can go over the limit. So we would need to be able to sign those 3 players for that money or less which should be doable. I think the reason they want Zetterberg is so they can keep Killorn cause if we don't get that 6M cushion we would need to move Killorn to get the extra space needed to fill the roster. The only question I have is what happens with guys like Foote, Schenn or another forward who we may bring up since we may be able to carry more players. Not sure how that cap works and how LTIR would affect those.

Going over the cap and into LTIR is not ideal but it's possible and saves us from having to move multiple players which keeps us as favorites still. We are going to lose assets in a Johnson trade so hopefully we can make a deal that doesn't hurt too bad. With us being over the cap and not much coming off next summer we will need to make more moves next season. The expansion draft will also be an issue as we will lose someone good there or have to move assets to have them take someone else. All these moves will cost assets to an already thin prospect pool. So I can see our window staying open but we will need our stars to be able to keep carrying us with lesser depth kinda like Crosby and Malkin do.

A common mistake many make when thinking about LTIR is assuming the LTIR player has a $0 cap hit, which is incorrect. The LTIR player's cap hit counts in full. So if we look at the CF figures for Tampa right now:

a) $83.4m team AAV, which is over the $81.5m cap, leaving the team with -$1.9m in cap space.

b) Tampa acquires Z with no other changes, their team AAV is now $83.4m+$6.08m = $89.5m, and the can use the LTIR to exceed the cap up to $81.5m + $6.08m = $87.6m. Leaving the team with -$1.9m in cap space.


Or a possibly easier way to look at it: no matter how much LTIR a team uses they can't spend more then $81.5m on the Active Roster.

 

[Todd1a]

Does Brisebois still work or did the lightning lay him off ?

 

[Lightning1995]

Does Brisebois still work or did the lightning lay him off ?

He’s pacing himself

 

[Felonious Python]

Does Brisebois still work or did the lightning lay him off ?

Paid by the hour.

 

[Todd1a]

https://detroitsportsnation.com/rum...ady/detroit-red-wings-news/12/12/2020/240952/


how does LTIR help us in the offseason to sign cirell and cernak?

 

[Major4Boarding]

Does Brisebois still work or did the lightning lay him off ?

I heard he's waiting on final approval from you.

 

[CupsOverCash]

https://detroitsportsnation.com/rum...ady/detroit-red-wings-news/12/12/2020/240952/


how does LTIR help us in the offseason to sign cirell and cernak?

We would still need to move a few players but it at least gets tjs cap hit off the team. If I'm not mistaken you gotta take away tjs cap hit to start then it makes a little more sense. Right now we are at 1.9 over and with out tj on the roster we are under the cap but then Zetterberg puts us over until we put him on ltir. Then once we trade Killorn & Paq we would have a decent amount of space to sign them but I dont think we would be able to accrue cap space over the season since the ltir "put us over the cap". I could be wrong but I think this is the school of thought.

 

[BoltSTH]

Maybe JBB has two trade proposals of equal value and is caught in the famous "Buridan's Ass paradox"

 

[BoltzManConstant]

Nah, a 1st, a 2nd a B-prospect is worth Cirelli and 5m in capspace. Nobody rides a minimum 20 man roster in NHL, your idea requires moving at least 4 players to keep Johnson and make our roster worse.

Nah, it's 3 players -- Killer, Cirelli and Paquette. And we're probably going to move Paquette anyway even if it's Johnson instead of Cirelli. So at most one more than what you're proposing, but probably same number.

"Nobody rides a minimum 20 man roster" is some Byrddog-level analysis. Nobody's ever gone into a 56-game season with special Covid roster exceptions, either. What "nobody" has ever done before is obviously inapplicable.

And you're failing to account for what we would get back if we traded Cirelli, which let's call somebody's first. You want us to pay TWO firsts, a second and Alnefelt for Cirelli. No one else in the league would pay that for him, why would we?

 

[BoltzManConstant]

https://detroitsportsnation.com/rum...ady/detroit-red-wings-news/12/12/2020/240952/


how does LTIR help us in the offseason to sign cirell and cernak?

Absolutely not at all. Unless it's one of our existing guys going on LTIR.

But anything that gets Johnson off the team without us retaining salary does help. Getting an LTIR guy back has effectively no impact on our cap situation by itself*, so getting rid of Johnson and getting an LTIR guy back is roughly as good as getting rid of Johnson with no salary back.

It's just a pure cash play between the teams. If Detroit doesn't want to eat the cash cost of Zetterberg while he does nothing for them, and Vinik is willing to eat the cost while he does nothing for us, then it could make sense as a trade. We get the cap space of no Johnson, they get it so they're not paying a non-contributor. This assumes that Detroit didn't (fully) insure Zetterberg's contract; if they did then there's no benefit to Detroit because the insurance company is paying Z's contract no matter which team he's on.

Kind of a baller move by Vinik if he's willing.

*This isn't strictly true, it's slightly worse than getting zero contract back, but we're gonna be jammed so hard up against the cap it barely makes a difference, and it's not worth digging into the details of it.

 

[Todd1a]

I heard he's waiting on final approval from you.

approved! Lol

 

[DFC]

Nashville would probably give us a 1st for palat that would improve there team big time!

And f*** ours.