Salary Cap: 2020-21 Lightning Roster Discussion | Part 2

[Vasilevskiy]

TJ will cost us. Maybe Coburn. I'd be shocked if Killorn and Paquette don't have positive value though. If we give someone a pick to take a guy who just had 26 goals in 70ish games...

I've already accepted that the pick we get for Killer will be used to give away TJ and Coburn

Click to read more...

 

[BoltzManConstant]

We're gonna be just fine. I did a little math for the absolute worst-case scenario. Like we be facing doomageddom here bois. Johnson buyout + Killorn trade + current room = $9,616,667 in cap space. And that is with 10 forwards and 4 D under contract. You just sign the 3 RFA's and have ABB and Volkov duke it out for the last roster spot and we're good. Hell in this scenario we haven't even traded Paquette. The RFA's aren't gonna take like $5 million each. That was their topline value. They'll sign for 3ish at most on short term deals because that's what will be asked of them. They will do it because that is the precedent and have been hearing about it their whole careers and are finally seeing it now.


We are at the point where this is about JBB waiting out the market before he has to make any other moves with the team.




If you feel your blood pressure going up or your heartrate racing allow me to direct your attention to the best medicine of drunk Kucherov

I don't you think you understand who all we need to sign with that $9.6m:
- First, you have to count the cap hit of the last roster spot guy once you call him up (that's $750k for ABB, or TBD for Volkov but >=$700k; TBD for Joseph as well).
- That only leaves $8.9m for the big 3 RFAs -- Serg, Cirelli AND Cernak
- So maaaaybe we can get there if one of the guys does the team-friendly thing (e.g Cernak for $1.7m, Serg for $4.5m and Cirelli cuts us a break by taking the rest -- $2.7m -- for one year with the promise of cashing in next year).
- But they might all demand proper compensation, and if so we can't keep all three under your scenario.

And even if we do get the team-friendly deal from one guy, then we've only got 18 skaters on roster and not a penny to spare. That means we can't bring anyone up from Syracuse at all during the RS without sending someone down or putting someone on LTIR (and ABB is is the only guy who is waiver exempt, so anyone else would have to pass through waivers). Given that the rules let you keep 23 guys on roster (typically 21 skaters and 2 goalies), trying to scrape through a full season with only enough money for 18 skaters is a really bad idea.

Last, you're assuming we buy out Johnson. That will mean we spend the next 8 seasons with (on average) $1.75m each year in dead cap space. I'll be shocked if does that -- you think we're hurting now, just wait until we try to get through Pointer's raise with that dead space.

Getting rid of Paquette and Coburn would help in loosening the collar on this (we can net $1m in usable space on each of them, after accounting for league-minimum replacements), but not really enough. I've been assuming we trade Killorn AND Johnson AND Paquette AND Coburn (if we get him to waive, but not absolutely critical if we can move the other 3).

So if we really can't trade Johnson this year, I'd put heavy odds that we trade away Cirelli, hopefully for some pretty serious futures value. Buying out Johnson is just too problematic long term, and really doesn't help that much.

 

[Hockey4Life91]

TJ will cost us. Maybe Coburn. I'd be shocked if Killorn and Paquette don't have positive value though. If we give someone a pick to take a guy who just had 26 goals in 70ish games...

Coburn already exercised his NTC.

 

[Vasilevskiy]

Coburn already exercised his NTC.

Is that confirmed? Where did you get that from?

 

[DFC]

Coburn already exercised his NTC.

Was that reported? Last I heard we hadn't approached him yet.

 

[HoseEmDown]

I don't you think you understand who all we need to sign with that $9.6m:
- First, you have to count the cap hit of the last roster spot guy once you call him up (that's $750k for ABB, or TBD for Volkov but >=$700k; TBD for Joseph as well).
- That only leaves $8.9m for the big 3 RFAs -- Serg, Cirelli AND Cernak
- So maaaaybe we can get there if one of the guys does the team-friendly thing (e.g Cernak for $1.7m, Serg for $4.5m and Cirelli cuts us a break by taking the rest -- $2.7m -- for one year with the promise of cashing in next year).
- But they might all demand proper compensation, and if so we can't keep all three under your scenario.

And even if we do get the team-friendly deal from one guy, then we've only got 18 skaters on roster and not a penny to spare. That means we can't bring anyone up from Syracuse at all during the RS without sending someone down or putting someone on LTIR (and ABB is is the only guy who is waiver exempt, so anyone else would have to pass through waivers). Given that the rules let you keep 23 guys on roster (typically 21 skaters and 2 goalies), trying to scrape through a full season with only enough money for 18 skaters is a really bad idea.

Last, you're assuming we buy out Johnson. That will mean we spend the next 8 seasons with (on average) $1.75m each year in dead cap space. I'll be shocked if does that -- you think we're hurting now, just wait until we try to get through Pointer's raise with that dead space.

Getting rid of Paquette and Coburn would help in loosening the collar on this (we can net $1m in usable space on each of them, after accounting for league-minimum replacements), but not really enough. I've been assuming we trade Killorn AND Johnson AND Paquette AND Coburn (if we get him to waive, but not absolutely critical if we can move the other 3).

So if we really can't trade Johnson this year, I'd put heavy odds that we trade away Cirelli, hopefully for some pretty serious futures value. Buying out Johnson is just too problematic long term, and really doesn't help that much.

If nobody else in the league except the very worst teams have capspace where is Sergachev and Cirelli going to get their money from? If all they care about is money then they'll sign with them but if they want to stay and win they'll have to take what we can offer. It may not be what they hoped but I can't see either getting 4M from us and even 3M will be a stretch. 1.5M Cernak, 2M Cirelli and 2.5M Sergachev is what it'll end up after we move Killorn and Paquette.

 

[Hockey4Life91]

Was that reported? Last I heard we hadn't approached him yet.

I can't run it down right now, but I am nearly positive it was reported the last few days.

 

[The Gongshow]

Good news: not many other teams even have cap space to offer sheet our players

Bad news: we also dont have cap space to give to our players

Really bad news: we're stuck with Johnson

 

[jfc64]

Hmm, Stamkos and McDonagh for Jon Merrill and a secondrounder might do the trick. Not entirely out of the question given the situation. Heaven awaits in Detroit for those two. Coburn and Sergachev steps up. NTC:s not calculated withy. Might even buy you a Jimmy Vesey or two. Foote in. Cirelly happy. TJ still here. Cernak a rock.

 

[PJ817]

Wait what happened here? I don't think I caught this.

looking for it - was a mic'd up video

Maroon was all "LETS GET IT - LETS GO !!!!!"

Paquette, "I don't get why you have to be like that..."

Maroon: "well, if I don't, who's gonna... LETS GOOOOOO!!!!!!"

looking - will post when I find

 

[Hockeyman1962]

I believe if Tyler Johnson is used correctly he is still a valuable asset to the lightning

 

[NatoGhost]

I believe if Tyler Johnson is used correctly he is still a valuable asset to the lightning

I dont disagree. Its just his cap hit that is the problem right now.

Also he doesn't seem to be what he once was. But I do think whether its here or elsewhere he will be hungry to prove something this year.

 

[PJ817]

looking for it - was a mic'd up video

I think it was the end of this video, which got clipped for the collage video - where he said don't let your f***ing foot off the gas boys

the rest of the original was Paquette asking why he'd have to be like that ...

EDITED: well fudge - go google Maroon Mic'd Up;

this one at about the 42s mark

VIDEO: Pat Maroon Mic'd Up Is As Hilarious As You'd Expect It To Be | 95.3 WDAE

 

[Flat Ronnie]

I think it was the end of this video, which got clipped for the collage video - where he said don't let your f***ing foot off the gas boys

the rest of the original was Paquette asking why he'd have to be like that ...

EDITED: well fudge - go google Maroon Mic'd Up;

this one at about the 42s mark

VIDEO: Pat Maroon Mic'd Up Is As Hilarious As You'd Expect It To Be | 95.3 WDAE

Dude's who know they're not great and are self depreciating are fantastic. They're usually tough which allows them to make fun of themselves.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

Who are some players that would take 1 year deals on the cheap with us just to raise their value for next year (or simply avoid this year's financial crunch)?

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

Montreal signs Toffoli.

The market for Killorn and Johnson keeps dwindling.

 

[DFC]

Montreal signs Toffoli.

The market for Killorn and Johnson keeps dwindling.

In terms of Killorn, he's probably a lot of teams' plan B. We might have to wait until Hoffman comes off the market for things to heat up.

 

[Todd1a]

Who are some players that would take 1 year deals on the cheap with us just to raise their value for next year (or simply avoid this year's financial crunch)?

I’d there was ever definitely one guy that would and should it’s
ALEX GALCHENYUK and
ANDREAS ATHANASIOU

 

[TeslaCoilFan]

Anyone else compulsively checking twitter to see if ANYTHING happened for ANY team, let alone ours???

Good thing it’s last class of the day for me. Unfortunately we have a faculty meeting after school so I’ll have to hide my refreshing like my students do.

 

[Vasilevskiy]

Graves signed 3 years 3.15 per year.

Hoping Cernak gets 2.5 or less

 

[Brie]

Anyone else compulsively checking twitter to see if ANYTHING happened for ANY team, let alone ours???

Good thing it’s last class of the day for me. Unfortunately we have a faculty meeting after school so I’ll have to hide my refreshing like my students do.

I do as well, and every time I find myself holding my breath, I guess because you don't know if the news we'll eventually get will be good or bad.

 

[Byrddog]

I don't you think you understand who all we need to sign with that $9.6m:
- First, you have to count the cap hit of the last roster spot guy once you call him up (that's $750k for ABB, or TBD for Volkov but >=$700k; TBD for Joseph as well).
- That only leaves $8.9m for the big 3 RFAs -- Serg, Cirelli AND Cernak
- So maaaaybe we can get there if one of the guys does the team-friendly thing (e.g Cernak for $1.7m, Serg for $4.5m and Cirelli cuts us a break by taking the rest -- $2.7m -- for one year with the promise of cashing in next year).
- But they might all demand proper compensation, and if so we can't keep all three under your scenario.

And even if we do get the team-friendly deal from one guy, then we've only got 18 skaters on roster and not a penny to spare. That means we can't bring anyone up from Syracuse at all during the RS without sending someone down or putting someone on LTIR (and ABB is is the only guy who is waiver exempt, so anyone else would have to pass through waivers). Given that the rules let you keep 23 guys on roster (typically 21 skaters and 2 goalies), trying to scrape through a full season with only enough money for 18 skaters is a really bad idea.

Last, you're assuming we buy out Johnson. That will mean we spend the next 8 seasons with (on average) $1.75m each year in dead cap space. I'll be shocked if does that -- you think we're hurting now, just wait until we try to get through Pointer's raise with that dead space.

Getting rid of Paquette and Coburn would help in loosening the collar on this (we can net $1m in usable space on each of them, after accounting for league-minimum replacements), but not really enough. I've been assuming we trade Killorn AND Johnson AND Paquette AND Coburn (if we get him to waive, but not absolutely critical if we can move the other 3).

So if we really can't trade Johnson this year, I'd put heavy odds that we trade away Cirelli, hopefully for some pretty serious futures value. Buying out Johnson is just too problematic long term, and really doesn't help that much.

OMG someone who actually has thought this ting out like I did. The defense is already rocky losing what Shattenkirk brought and the contributions of Bogosian so at all costs Sergichev and Cernak have to be signed and we can not withstand just bridging them to come due another raise when Point does. Nobody wanted to hear this last year when negations were going with point JBB should have bit the bullet then and locked him down long term for another 1.5 per but now he is going to break the bank Point will become the highest paid player on this roster in two years or he will be gone. And the CAp is not going to up for another two years minimum. This is assuming that we have a season this year. Some members of the BOG have already started to pushback on Bettmans Jan 1 start and suggestions have been made for a 60 to 68 game regular season as well. If they can not fill the arenas these owners can not just continue to dump millions into each club. Yes they were covered this year by insurance to a point but those policies will not be underwritten to cover CoVid or any other pandemic in the future. If the start of the season is pushed back again I see one of two things happening. 1 The league goes back to the players association to renegotiate the contract and approve compliance buyouts or 2 the entire season is scratched. TV money is being negotiated right now for a new contract and under the current circumstance it is hard to imagine that that revenue stream increases, in fact the TV revenue alone can not support a team.

Currently now with Hall gone and really only Hoffman left to drive FA spending teams are now settled in to there budget for next season. This makes moving salary out VIA trade costly the bottom dwellers who have cap left and are rebuilding have no incentive to take on additional Cap without a premium additional players and picks. And in the Bolts circumstance those who you want to move have NMC's or MNMC's that as we have alreday seen with Johnson ties the GM's hands to make any deal doable.

 

[BoltsFanSinceDay1]

Anyone else compulsively checking twitter to see if ANYTHING happened for ANY team, let alone ours???

Good thing it’s last class of the day for me. Unfortunately we have a faculty meeting after school so I’ll have to hide my refreshing like my students do.

Been totally doing that, for like a week now. That and refreshing this board and the main board. I think I am a hockey-aholic now.

 

[gn2007]

Graves signed 3 years 3.15 per year.

Hoping Cernak gets 2.5 or less

Graves had +/- of +40 on his team so pretty much played smart on a built line. Cernak doesnt get that luxury. But I think 2.5 or below is very reasonable as a bridge deal.

 

[HoseEmDown]

So we're now worried about Point who's contract isn't up until 22-23? Do you know what happens in the 22-23 offseason? Palat and his 5.3M is off the books if it wasn't already. Point isn't getting a 5.3M raise so we have more than enough to pay him. You know what else happens that offseason? Gourde has his NTC become modified so he's able to be moved if needed. By this time we should also have shed 9.45M between Killorn and Johnson. There's more than enough money to pay Point. As for bridging the 3 RFA's we can split them up the next few seasons so we don't have to pay them all the same offseason. The 9.45M from Killorn and Johnson should be able to lock down Sergachev long term and possibly Cernak as well. Or definitely Cirelli and Cernak. The Palat and Gourde money will cover the raises of Point and whoever is left. We will be relying on prospects to fill a lot of spots but the key pieces will be signed.