Salary Cap: 2020-21 Lightning Roster Discussion | Part 2

[Sky04]

If we're adding two more to the roster why do the other two need to be replaced? I'm confused.

Because Cirelli and Cernak aren't additions, they're re-taking their own spots. We have to fill the spots of the players we lose.

 

[DJB]

Any idea on upcoming lines for this year? Or where Palat may fit in?

Thanks!

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

Any idea on upcoming lines for this year? Or where Palat may fit in?

Thanks!

Zero idea. The lines are always different every year. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he's taken off the Point line.

 

[Byrddog]

Ok now that Serge has signed things are easier to project. Roster size is 19 and currently $1.9 Million over the cap.

Say it takes $8 Million to sign Cerelli, Cernek, and add two more to the NHL roster (Foote, Volkov?). Around $10 Million over.

Trading TJ and Killer saves $9,450,000, but the Lightning lose two roster players that need to be replaced. Best case that would cost $1.5 Million (Joseph, ABB?)?

Still need to find another $2 Million in cap space. I really don’t know where it’s coming from. Maybe Cirelli and Cernek sign for way below market? Foote I think is locked in at 925M. What will ABB, Joseph and Volkov cost?

This has been the problem all along too many prognosticating that the RFA's would sign far cheaper and controlling the players you have to move by this. It is very late now and teams have pretty much settled into there current rosters to start this abortion of a season that Bettman is pushing.
What we would like to see and what is going to happen are pretty far apart, after Sergi's signing I thought that perhaps JBB had something set to resolve this but we are now two weeks post Sergi's signing and I am not starting to wonder if his signing was not part of a package to move Johnson and Killorn in one large swoop, but if that were so it would also be done by now. There is something we just do not know. My gut feeling is that what ever team JBB had a deal lined up with has now got cold feet.

You observation of replacing two roster spots if Johnson and Killer are moved is spot on. And the amount cleared is not going to be enough to retain Cirelli and Cernak and replace the two spots in the top 6. What I would like to see is really irrelevant just as what most would like to see. JBB is stuck and may eat the words of his priority of signing all three RFA's. Just thinking of having Joseph in the top six makes me want to vomit.

 

[Sky04]

This has been the problem all along too many prognosticating that the RFA's would sign far cheaper and controlling the players you have to move by this. It is very late now and teams have pretty much settled into there current rosters to start this abortion of a season that Bettman is pushing.
What we would like to see and what is going to happen are pretty far apart, after Sergi's signing I thought that perhaps JBB had something set to resolve this but we are now two weeks post Sergi's signing and I am not starting to wonder if his signing was not part of a package to move Johnson and Killorn in one large swoop, but if that were so it would also be done by now. There is something we just do not know. My gut feeling is that what ever team JBB had a deal lined up with has now got cold feet.

You observation of replacing two roster spots if Johnson and Killer are moved is spot on. And the amount cleared is not going to be enough to retain Cirelli and Cernak and replace the two spots in the top 6. What I would like to see is really irrelevant just as what most would like to see. JBB is stuck and may eat the words of his priority of signing all three RFA's. Just thinking of having Joseph in the top six makes me want to vomit.

Why do you think we need 2 top-6 players again?

 

[LightningStrikes]

Any idea on upcoming lines for this year? Or where Palat may fit in?

Thanks!

No clue honestly.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

Lineup without external replacements for Killorn/Johnson.

Palat - Point - Kucherov
Stamkos - Cirelli - Gourde
Goodrow - Coleman - Stephens
Volkov - Paquette - Maroon
Joseph

Hedman - Ruuta
McDonagh - Cernak
Sergachev - Schenn
Coburn

Plenty of depth still, can move Gourde around depending on if we want to spread the scoring. Can also move Stamkos to center if needed. If Stamkos is unavailable, then we start to have some issues but we have gotten by short-handed before.

Our division is so weak that we can run with this until the trade deadline, and then perhaps get a rental when the full cap hit doesn't count against the cap.

 

[Point21]

Lineup without external replacements for Killorn/Johnson.

Palat - Point - Kucherov
Stamkos - Cirelli - Gourde
Goodrow - Coleman - Stephens
Volkov - Paquette - Maroon
Joseph

Hedman - Ruuta
McDonagh - Cernak
Sergachev - Schenn
Coburn

Plenty of depth still, can move Gourde around depending on if we want to spread the scoring. Can also move Stamkos to center if needed. If Stamkos is unavailable, then we start to have some issues but we have gotten by short-handed before.

Our division is so weak that we can run with this until the trade deadline, and then perhaps get a rental when the full cap hit doesn't count against the cap.

I think we keep Gourde with Goodrow and Coleman, and move Volkov up with Cirelli and Stamkos. Stephens will slot at C on the 4th line, and we move Paquette for extra Cap and either use Joseph or one of Katchouk/Raddysh on the wing. On D I think we see Hedman-Sergy McD-Cernak ?-Foote. maybe Coburn unless he's moved as well and sign a Vet to help Foote out along the way and keep Schenn as the extra

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

I think we keep Gourde with Goodrow and Coleman, and move Volkov up with Cirelli and Stamkos. Stephens will slot at C on the 4th line, and we move Paquette for extra Cap and either use Joseph or one of Katchouk/Raddysh on the wing. On D I think we see Hedman-Sergy McD-Cernak ?-Foote. maybe Coburn unless he's moved as well and sign a Vet to help Foote out along the way and keep Schenn as the extra

We have plenty of options for sure. No need to go out and replace Killorn/Johnson externally.

 

[Byrddog]

Why do you think we need 2 top-6 players again?

Killorn has played top 6 and Johnson in and out. Stammer has real issues of staying healthy in the last 8 seasons Stammer has played over 70 games 4 times so it is 50/50 he is in the line up now days.
Now Johnson has played 3rd line last year but the year prior when he moved fron center to the wing he was still in the top 6.
So just looking last year a top 6 and top 9 guy will need to be replaced. Coleman could well play up but breaking that line up is not ideal. Volkov is a 3rd pair guy at best and Joseph is a AHL guy that does not ned to be above the 4th line at this level.

 

[Byrddog]

Lineup without external replacements for Killorn/Johnson.

Palat - Point - Kucherov
Stamkos - Cirelli - Gourde
Goodrow - Coleman - Stephens
Volkov - Paquette - Maroon
Joseph

Hedman - Ruuta
McDonagh - Cernak
Sergachev - Schenn
Coburn

Plenty of depth still, can move Gourde around depending on if we want to spread the scoring. Can also move Stamkos to center if needed. If Stamkos is unavailable, then we start to have some issues but we have gotten by short-handed before.

Our division is so weak that we can run with this until the trade deadline, and then perhaps get a rental when the full cap hit doesn't count against the cap.

The thing is there is still this thing called a CAP. You can not sign Cirelli, Cernak, Volkov and Joseph only moving out 9.5 mil from Killer and Johnson. They are 1.9 over now meaning they would have 7.6 to sign those four RFA's its is just not going to happen. If they move another roster player they have to replace that player as well so moving Ceddy to free up 1.6 reall means only freeing up 850k at best because you must replace him again with a lessor experienced player. Then your still flirting with the top of the cap and have no room for an emergency or deadline signing. We better get used to the idea that either Cernak or Cirelli will not fit and there is no chance unless JBB can find a home for Killer and Johnson. Tic Toc Tic Toc. Two weeks until camp supposedly. It looks more and more like JBB thinks there is not going to be a season.

 

[Sky04]

Killorn has played top 6 and Johnson in and out. Stammer has real issues of staying healthy in the last 8 seasons Stammer has played over 70 games 4 times so it is 50/50 he is in the line up now days.
Now Johnson has played 3rd line last year but the year prior when he moved fron center to the wing he was still in the top 6.
So just looking last year a top 6 and top 9 guy will need to be replaced. Coleman could well play up but breaking that line up is not ideal. Volkov is a 3rd pair guy at best and Joseph is a AHL guy that does not ned to be above the 4th line at this level.

56 games proposed next year and Stamkos has played in 56+ games in 5/6 years? Seems more like 83% than 50/50 since we're cherry picking.

You talk alot about replacing Johnson's scoring, what exactly do you think Coleman-Gourde-Goodrow are going to produce together ? More than enough to make up for Johnson's 14 goals no?

 

[BoltzManConstant]

The thing is there is still this thing called a CAP. You can not sign Cirelli, Cernak, Volkov and Joseph only moving out 9.5 mil from Killer and Johnson. They are 1.9 over now meaning they would have 7.6 to sign those four RFA's its is just not going to happen. If they move another roster player they have to replace that player as well so moving Ceddy to free up 1.6 reall means only freeing up 850k at best because you must replace him again with a lessor experienced player. Then your still flirting with the top of the cap and have no room for an emergency or deadline signing. We better get used to the idea that either Cernak or Cirelli will not fit and there is no chance unless JBB can find a home for Killer and Johnson. Tic Toc Tic Toc. Two weeks until camp supposedly. It looks more and more like JBB thinks there is not going to be a season.

Of course you can sign those 4 for $7.6m. It will take about $1.4m for Volkov and Joseph, leaving $6.2m.

So $1.9m to Cernak and $4.3m to Cirelli, or some other combination. If Cernak is worth more than that (unclear), maybe you only get one year at that number and have to work it out with him again next year.

The issue is that only leaves us with 19 guys on the roster. Paquette's cap hit is enough to cover a little more than two bodies on minimum contacts, so we probably deal him and bring up two more AHLers. (Even better would be dealing Coburn, but I doubt we find a buyer.) That only gets us to the league minimum (20 players), which is not ideal. There'd still be a few hundred $k lying around, though, and JBB could get Cirelli for a bit less if the deal is only one year if he wants enough room to add one more minimum contract. Not easy choices for JBB, but no intractable problems.

Another thing to bear in mind is that there are going to be special Covid roster rules due to the inability to send guys between AHL and NHL, so JBB might use that to finesse our lack of bodies problem.

As an aside, I am f'in THRILLED there's likely going to be a season. We have the best team in the league, hands down. And even if we're a little weaker than last year, we're still going to be awesome. Would be a crying shame if we didn't get to see them on the ice.

 

[JTBF81]

Palat-Point-Kucherov
Volkov-Cirelli-Stamkos
Goodrow-Gourde-Coleman
ABB/Joseph-Stephens-Maroon
Joseph/ABB(or Raddysh/Smith/Katchouk etc)

Hedman-Rutta
McDonagh-Cernak
Sergachev-Foote
Schenn

If Volkov doesn't fit on the 2nd line, then can either try Barre-Boulet if he's ready or, more likely, Gourde. Move Johnson, Killorn and Paquette to free up 11.1 million, which leaves the team with 9.2 approx to sign everyone. Cirelli and Cernak come in between 6-6.5, Volkov and one of ABB/Joseph should be 1.5ish, Foote is 925k and Rutta should be 1 tops. If Coburn won't waive or agree to retire, to Syracuse he goes which saves another 625k I believe. So let's say 9.825 to work with, 6.25Cirelli+Cernak)+1.6 for Volkov+ABB or Joseph+925k for Foote+1 million for Rutta equals 9.775 and Tampa makes a 22 player roster work with no external additions. Tampa has options for sure, and if they do find a way to clear all of Coburn's cap they likely can keep Paquette in favor of one of Joseph/Barre-Boulet(or another top level Syracuse prospect that earns a spot).

 

[HoseEmDown]

Palat - Point - Kucherov
Barre-Boulet - Cirelli - Stamkos
Goodrow - Gourde - Coleman
Maroon - Stephens - Joseph
Volkov/Colton

Hedman - Rutta
McDonagh - Cernak
Sergachev - Foote
Coburn/Schenn

Cirelli should get around 3.8 and Cernak 2.2, Volkov and Joseph 700k. With the Covid rules we should be able to carry extra players at no cost or with expanding cap to cover them. So guys like Foote, Schenn and Colton caps aren't counted towards the current 81.5. Move Paquette out if possible for a 4th. Try to do the deal with Detroit where they get Johnson and Killorn but try to add just one 1st, if you have to, and a prospect like Fortier or Volkov not Barre-Boulet or Raddysh/Katchouk. If you have to you move Raddysh as with Kucherov and Stamkos we don't need a RW for at least 4 years.

 

[Point21]

 

[Todd1a]

That’s a option we can put him on LTIR and go over the salary cap

 

[Lightning1995]

Question is what else goes to Detroit

 

[HoseEmDown]

Question is what else goes to Detroit

It's hard to say because while Johnson is a capdump for us he'll be a useful player for them. So do we have to overpay to dump salary on someone that's going to help them? We will have to add to Johnson but not sure the add will need to be massive, like two 1st's which I've heard or 1st + top prospect, cause for next season Detroit isn't wasting 6M in cap they get use out of 5M and save 1M. So next season should be a wash that means we need to figure what it costs to move the last 3 years.

Another thing to consider is that expansion starts after next year and Detroit doesn't have any good options so Seattle could take Johnson for obvious reasons, local kid, and the fact they'll have nothing else good to take. In that case Detroit just got a season of Johnson for nothing, they already had 6M in cap dedicated to Zetterberg, and a few assets from us. I would have no issues adding a 2nd + Fortier to Johnson, would do 2nd + Joseph/Volkov as well. Don't really want to use a 1st, would like to use that to acquire another Coleman type since he'll price himself out after next season. Don't want to trade Foote for obvious reasons and would prefer to hang onto Barre-Boulet, Raddysh and Katchouk. I doubt a 2nd + Fortier is enough so whatever we trade i probably won't like it.

 

[Byrddog]

Of course you can sign those 4 for $7.6m. It will take about $1.4m for Volkov and Joseph, leaving $6.2m.

So $1.9m to Cernak and $4.3m to Cirelli, or some other combination. If Cernak is worth more than that (unclear), maybe you only get one year at that number and have to work it out with him again next year.

The issue is that only leaves us with 19 guys on the roster. Paquette's cap hit is enough to cover a little more than two bodies on minimum contacts, so we probably deal him and bring up two more AHLers. (Even better would be dealing Coburn, but I doubt we find a buyer.) That only gets us to the league minimum (20 players), which is not ideal. There'd still be a few hundred $k lying around, though, and JBB could get Cirelli for a bit less if the deal is only one year if he wants enough room to add one more minimum contract. Not easy choices for JBB, but no intractable problems.

Another thing to bear in mind is that there are going to be special Covid roster rules due to the inability to send guys between AHL and NHL, so JBB might use that to finesse our lack of bodies problem.

As an aside, I am f'in THRILLED there's likely going to be a season. We have the best team in the league, hands down. And even if we're a little weaker than last year, we're still going to be awesome. Would be a crying shame if we didn't get to see them on the ice.

I do not think you get Cirelli and Cernak that cheap but thats just a wait and see thing what those guys get. And you point out the issue with the covid restrictions and only at 19 if your scenerio works out. And there are a lot of assumptions there. First that JBB has a home for Killorn and Johnson then another home for Pauquette or Coburn or both replacing them with more elc's or minimum salary players and assuming those players are all not NHL busts. Even 4th liners need some skills. Then you have to consider is this good for the team long term. As fans we can support about anything but the front office has to consider long term. Two key years are coming 22-23 and 23-24 offseasons when Point Sergi, Cernak, Cirelli will all need contracts and in that period only Palat falls off. Is that the year we close the window? Perhaps Stammer retires a year early???

The thing is right now IF Bettman gets his way and the Players cave with concessions camp will start in two weeks. If Johnson and Killorn are to be traded this week is really the last window. Most teams have already closed the door on adding players before camp starts and there are some pretty good UFA's still out there that can and will be added, league cap space is tight and movement clauses restrict what JBB can do. The popular belief is that Yzer will be the outlet for relief. Well its not been long ago he put this team together, why would we think that he would make these trades if it did not benefit the Wings whose rebuild does not fit Killorns timeline for sure and he wants just one year of Johnson when his team is finished??? Or hes doing it out of the goodness of his heart yeah thats it, well we know better than this as well.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Any idea on upcoming lines for this year? Or where Palat may fit in?

Thanks!

Assuming both Johnson and Killorn are gone, Palat could possibly slot anywhere. So it's hard to know right now.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

I think we keep Gourde with Goodrow and Coleman, and move Volkov up with Cirelli and Stamkos. Stephens will slot at C on the 4th line, and we move Paquette for extra Cap and either use Joseph or one of Katchouk/Raddysh on the wing. On D I think we see Hedman-Sergy McD-Cernak ?-Foote. maybe Coburn unless he's moved as well and sign a Vet to help Foote out along the way and keep Schenn as the extra

Do we really think Sergy goes to the left

 

[BoltSTH]

Do we really think Sergy goes to the left

IMO Sergachev will Hedman's be partner unless Cooper does not want PP1 and PP2 QB being on the same pair. If so then Cooper could move Sergachev to play with McD (and Cernak with Hedman), play both Hedman and Sergachev on PP1, or give the 30 seconds of PP2 to McD. At present it looks like Hedman-Sergachev McD-Cernak Coburn-Foote Schenn as the pairs, but Coburn could be replaced (if traded) with a body coming back in any of the expected trades.

 

[StreetHawk]

I do not think you get Cirelli and Cernak that cheap but thats just a wait and see thing what those guys get. And you point out the issue with the covid restrictions and only at 19 if your scenerio works out. And there are a lot of assumptions there. First that JBB has a home for Killorn and Johnson then another home for Pauquette or Coburn or both replacing them with more elc's or minimum salary players and assuming those players are all not NHL busts. Even 4th liners need some skills. Then you have to consider is this good for the team long term. As fans we can support about anything but the front office has to consider long term. Two key years are coming 22-23 and 23-24 offseasons when Point Sergi, Cernak, Cirelli will all need contracts and in that period only Palat falls off. Is that the year we close the window? Perhaps Stammer retires a year early???

The thing is right now IF Bettman gets his way and the Players cave with concessions camp will start in two weeks. If Johnson and Killorn are to be traded this week is really the last window. Most teams have already closed the door on adding players before camp starts and there are some pretty good UFA's still out there that can and will be added, league cap space is tight and movement clauses restrict what JBB can do. The popular belief is that Yzer will be the outlet for relief. Well its not been long ago he put this team together, why would we think that he would make these trades if it did not benefit the Wings whose rebuild does not fit Killorns timeline for sure and he wants just one year of Johnson when his team is finished??? Or hes doing it out of the goodness of his heart yeah thats it, well we know better than this as well.

Actual cash out the door is going to weigh into these discussions. Vaccine is just at the very early stages of being rolled out, but will take into Quarter 2 to get those to the majority of people as the first batch in December and Q1 of 2021 should be going to front line health care, those who have to work to deal directly with the community, like police, cashiers, etc. plus the elderly who are at risk.

So, limited or no fans in Q1 and being realistic, this is a season with virtually no fans IMO. But seems like 21-22 will get back to the way it was before.

So, based on that, are teams who are all cap compliant now, interested in adding a contract with term? Teams can still try to sign a Hoffman, Granlund, etc. who are still out there for a short term deal versus taking on term plus whatever asset they can obtain from TB.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

Do we really think Sergy goes to the left

I think Cooper has proven that there is a way to give all 3 of Hedman/McDonagh/Sergachev ice time on separate pairings. I think Serg will get 1st unit PP time this year, and occasional offensive zone starts with Hedman.