Speculation: 2020-21 LA Kings News/Roster/Rumors Discussion Part VI

[BigKing]

He got ‘lucky’ with Gaborik as well.

Dean inherited a strong core. Kopitar, Brown, Quick. Built up draft capital and maximized prospects.

Then made moves to acquire proper players in trades. Got Stoll/Green. Williams. Signed Mitchell.

Realized the roster was ready to spend prospects for established talent. Richards.

Voynov made Johnson expendable. On came Carter.

Dean to me looked like someone addicted to gambling. At trade deadline, Gaborik looked to have worked out to a shockingly good level.

Then came Sekera. Big loss.
On came Lucic. Big loss.

Gambled on new contracts. Gaborik was awful. Brown and Quick got hefty paydays.

Gambled Richards would be better. Big loss.

Didn’t try to recover assets when Williams and Stoll were in the last year.

Sutter lost the room. Dean didn’t fire.

Dean ran out of chips. Then he was out of a job.

The trade for Stoll/Greene was a big balls move and the sign of someone with a plan that was more than just "suck and get picks". Dean meant the stuff about culture. Not to say that Blake doesn't but I'm not sure if Blake knows how to get there even though he is preaching it.

Williams and Mitchell were giant wins. Amazing moves.

Gaborik was going to get paid and they were going to run it back and try to win again. Gaborik was also awesome in 2015 and then that contract wouldn't even be an issue eventually due to LTIR. I have zero issue with how Gaborik was handled: it was the Richards non-buyout that was the first screw-up.

Voynov sets this whole thing in motion. If he is playing, they might not even be in a position where they miss the playoffs and also spend a 1st on Sekera.

Not trading Williams in 2015 when they are still going for it. You aren't trading Stoll either. We can shit on that team all we want but they finished with 95 points which is usually good enough for the playoffs while accumulating a laughably poor OT/SO record. Flip some of those loser points into two points and they are comfortably in the playoffs, at least as comfortably as they were for the first few season's prior.

The poor drafting caught up to the 2016 team as there was little depth to come in and contribute when guys got banged up. Martinez being banged up for the 2016 playoffs was a disaster. Check out Scuderi/McBain/Schenn all getting in at least four games in a five game series. This was the same thing in 2018 when losing Forbort and having a banged up Muzzin meant zero chance.

Anyways, point is that the Sekera trade is a real 20/20 hindsight bitchfest. Lucic had people upset at the time but it also had a lot of people--including myself--excited. Of course, I still thought Voynov was coming back and the team wasn't as thin depth wise as it turned out being. Gaborik went from 27 goals back to Glassorik, the Voynov hole remain unfilled and the rest is history.

DL definitely gambled but you don't win by always playing it safe. He just started asking for markers, kept losing and the casino finally called the bill.

 

[tomd]

The Kings are selling a product. If you believe their bullshit, that's your problem.

It's about credibility and every business that sells something owes that to their customers...the Kings included. You are under similar circumstances in whatever business you are engaged in. Once your credibility is gone you have nothing.

And let me be clear...I've never said the Kings MUST make the playoffs next year. I've consistently said that the team must be playing important games at around the 70 game mark next year. The team needs to show improvement. That was the commitment...that should be the expectation.

 

[King'sPawn]

.

[Edit: On further reflection I think there are some people that are expecting a 5-7 year rebuild and hoping for it!]

Nobody wants a 5-7 year rebuild.

Some don't want to rush the rebuild and force players to be ready before they are ready to take over.

 

[Sol]

Nobody wants a 5-7 year rebuild.

Some don't want to rush the rebuild and force players to be ready before they are ready to take over.

How fast do you drive on the fast lane?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

The trade for Stoll/Greene was a big balls move and the sign of someone with a plan that was more than just "suck and get picks". Dean meant the stuff about culture. Not to say that Blake doesn't but I'm not sure if Blake knows how to get there even though he is preaching it.
.

Hell yes it was. That was the first 'holy shit' moment I had with DL. It took some SERIOUS stones to give up the best player in the deal--super skilled Visnovsky--for two essentially 'depth' players, character aside. yeah age and timeline and all that, I remember that one getting absolutely throttled by Button and the other media.

 

[King'sPawn]

How fast do you drive on the fast lane?

What does this metaphor have to do with a rebuild?

 

[bland]

How fast do you drive on the fast lane?

Do you put mustard on the corn dog before you fry it?

 

[Docgonzo]

If I recall correctly the trades of Lubo for Stoll/Greene and O’Sullivan for Williams were not looked at highly by the fans at the time. They traded their top defenseman for an ok 2c and a stay at home Dman. Then our promising younger player, that DL just traded Demitra for, for a player that spend the last 2 season mostly in the IR. Now all of these moves ended up working out for the Kings, but at the time they weren’t thought of highly.

Everybody seems to complain about the Kovy signing, yeah it didn’t work, but it was a free agent signing.

Everybody remember the bodies DL kept throwing at the team until something ended up sticking?

Tom Pressing, Denis Gathier, Randy Jones, Armstrong, Calder, Monroe, Zeiler, Purcell, Brad Stuart, Kyle Quincey, Scott Parse, Fredrik Modin, Matt Frattin, Brandon Segal,
Matt Ellis, Jeff Halpern, Alexis Ponikarovsky, Ivannans, Westgarth, Trent Hunter.

And yet it worked, people wanted DL fired in like 2010 or earlier. Accept the process and be patient.

 

[Sol]

What does this metaphor have to do with a rebuild?

Was just curious, my guy.

 

[Sol]

Do you put mustard on the corn dog before you fry it?

Never had a corndog unfortunately. Would you recommend it?

 

[lumbergh]

The fool's gold of that 2014 run is the problem. That really cemented the just get in mentality. Something the Kings have paid for ever since.

In the history of revisionist histories, this might be the revisionest of histories.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Do you put mustard on the corn dog before you fry it?

Don't knock it until you try it!

 

[kilowatt]

The rebuild started in 18-19 and this is their 3rd year in a row picking in the top 10. So this is the end of year three. Again, if the expectations set back in 18-19 were that the Kings were embarking on a 5-7 year rebuild and that the next playoff opportunity was going to be in 24-25 then we would not be having this discussion. Instead, we'd be accessing where things stand halfway through the rebuild.

But a 5-7 year rebuild was NOT the expectation. The expectation was to challenge for a playoff spot in year 4 which is next season. So the discussion needs to be focused on whether we are still relying on the current expectation or is there some new expectation that pushes that timeframe out. And if there is a new expectation then we should know about it and Kopitar/Doughty should be given some say as to whether they want to be part of that or not.

Make sense? I'm really just wanting some accountability from the organization. Shouldn't everyone want that?

Sure, but you're getting ahead of yourself here. We're now entering the rebuild phase where signing free agents, making trades, and calling up our prospects is going to start happening.

In 2008-09, Doughty's rookie season, we finished with 79 points, second-last in the Western Conference and 5th-worst overall. That's basically analogous to where we are today, except that Doughty was a generational defensive prospect who stepped in day one and dominated.

I was hopeful that LA would make the playoffs this year, but the wheels fell off. I expect them to make the playoffs next year (or be pretty darn close to it).

 

[kilowatt]

In the history of revisionist histories, this might be the revisionest of histories.

This fool's gold is real gold!

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Hell yes it was. That was the first 'holy shit' moment I had with DL. It took some SERIOUS stones to give up the best player in the deal--super skilled Visnovsky--for two essentially 'depth' players, character aside. yeah age and timeline and all that, I remember that one getting absolutely throttled by Button and the other media.

It also kind of happened with the Demitra trade as well, which was his first big move. Then he followed it up with Dan Cloutier...

The Visnovsky deal is a peculiar one. Stoll was brought in to be a second line center. He had one really productive season in his sophomore year in Edmonton, and followed that up with two sub-par seasons. In LA, he topped out as a 40+ point second line center, until he was bumped down to the 3rd line after the Richards trade. Then that 40-point range of production was cut in half and he was a 20+ point center.

Greene had one full season of experience, but 151 games under his belt as an Oiler. Both were in their mid-20s and were six years younger than Lubo, however, at the time of the trade, Stoll and Greene were not necessarily viewed as building block pieces. They were two solid players who can help in other areas the Kings were lacking in, despite losing their best puck moving defenseman and most productive player on the blueline.

If you were to put together a similar trade as that one in this day and age, it would be like the Nashville Predators trading Roman Josi for Alex Kerfoot and Travis Dermott.

 

[kingsholygrail]

If DL lucked into two Cups, I'll take lucky every day of the week.

 

[tomd]

Sure, but you're getting ahead of yourself here. We're now entering the rebuild phase where signing free agents, making trades, and calling up our prospects is going to start happening.

In 2008-09, Doughty's rookie season, we finished with 79 points, second-last in the Western Conference and 5th-worst overall. That's basically analogous to where we are today, except that Doughty was a generational defensive prospect who stepped in day one and dominated.

I was hopeful that LA would make the playoffs this year, but the wheels fell off. I expect them to make the playoffs next year (or be pretty darn close to it).

Actually if I read your post correctly we are basically in agreement and you are exactly correct. Blake needs to improve the team enough this summer to be in exactly the position a year from now that you described...make the playoffs or be darn close to it.

 

[bland]

It also kind of happened with the Demitra trade as well, which was his first big move. Then he followed it up with Dan Cloutier...

The Visnovsky deal is a peculiar one. Stoll was brought in to be a second line center. He had one really productive season in his sophomore year in Edmonton, and followed that up with two sub-par seasons. In LA, he topped out as a 40+ point second line center, until he was bumped down to the 3rd line after the Richards trade. Then that 40-point range of production was cut in half and he was a 20+ point center.

Greene had one full season of experience, but 151 games under his belt as an Oiler. Both were in their mid-20s and were six years younger than Lubo, however, at the time of the trade, Stoll and Greene were not necessarily viewed as building block pieces. They were two solid players who can help in other areas the Kings were lacking in, despite losing their best puck moving defenseman and most productive player on the blueline.

If you were to put together a similar trade as that one in this day and age, it would be like the Nashville Predators trading Roman Josi for Alex Kerfoot and Travis Dermott.

Context being Lombardi saw first hand that the team badly needed an injection of character team-first players who had both just performed admirably on a team that was damn close to the Cup. So my counter would be like Columbus trading an older Werenski to Dallas for a younger Pavelski and Oleksiak.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Context being Lombardi saw first hand that the team badly needed an injection of character team-first players who had both just performed admirably on a team that was damn close to the Cup. So my counter would be like Columbus trading an older Werenski to Dallas for a younger Pavelski and Oleksiak.

Two years had passed since the Oilers came close to the Cup, and in those two years, they had missed the playoffs, drafted Sam Gagner with the sixth overall pick in 2007, then blew their wad on the Dustin Penner offer sheet. Stoll's role was replaced by Gagner (and Cogliano), so I'm not sure if him and Greene were as heralded as you are making them out to be at the time of the trade.

Remember, the Oilers that went to the Cup Final also had Chris Pronger, Ryan Smyth, Mike Peca, Jason Smith, Ethan Moreau, Raffi Torres... lot of names who would rank high on character. Greene was logging 10-11 minutes on those Oilers. I'm sure they took away a lot from their experience from those playoffs though, as did Richards and Carter in 2010.

 

[Herby]

Some good and maybe not so good points in here.

DL did a fantastic job building the roster around his 3 superstars, the Kings were not lucky to win those 2 cups. However it is fair to say that from the Doughty pick until the end of his tenure there was very little of substance added, a few 2nd/3rd liners and 2nd/3rd pairing defenders. When Richards collapsed almost overnight there was no once in the system to replace him, when Voynov ended his career there was no one to replace him, when Gaborik fell off and Williams left there was no one to replace them. People love to bring up quantity in drafting, but there has to be quality too, and there simply wasn't enough to maintain that team.

The 2006 Oilers and 2010 Flyers were lucky to almost win the cup. The Kings had a 3 year run where they won twice and lost to the only team that was going to beat them, it's quite different.

The Stoll/Greene trade paid dividends only when the Kings finally realized that Jarret Stoll was not going to be a 2nd line center in the NHL (sorry wherever you are JT Dutch). Stoll was excellent as a 3rd line center behind AK and MR and then AK and JC but lets be honest, the Kings made that trade expecting him to be a 2nd line center, and only after 3 years of failure was it corrected with the MR trade.

The 2014 Kings were not lucky or flukey, they chose the worst time in the world to have a three game losing streak but then responded like an elite championship team. The Sharks, Ducks and Hawks were 3 elite teams, you don't beat those three teams without being elite.

DL's issues, and IMO the reason he hasn't been given another job really came to the forefront immediately after that. DL simply could not view players as commodities. It started after the 2014 run with the absolutely inexplicable decision to not move on from Richards, there was zero chance any of the internal scouting staff could have justified keeping that salary after how bad he was in 2014, it was a GM override move that made no sense at the time and no sense now. To sign Gaborik for 6 years (lowering cap hit and pushing issues down the road) was another blunder, I loved Gabby and wanted him back, but offer him 3-4 years at a fair cap hit.

From there is was the complete inability to realize the window was shut, the Sekera trade was bad, not horrific like the other one, but it was bad. Andrej Sekera was not pushing a team out of the playoffs into contention, they knew they couldn't afford him so it was poor asset management, thankfully the 2016 draft was horrible. The Lucic trade, as discussed before is probably the worst trade the Kings have made since the 1980's. The Kings would have had a dozen years of 1C/2C play and gave it away (+ more) for a 1 year rental for a team that was a lot more than a Milan Lucic away from contention.

I know some still argue that DL should have been given a chance to rebuild and that he was stabbed in the back by Luc, but you can't rebuild if you can't make the tough decisions to move on from your "kids", can't rebuild if you don't view players and coaches as commodities. The decisions made from June 2014 to April 2017 were as bad as any Kings GM has ever made over a 3 year period and any team in the league would have moved on, I was not happy with the decision to basically promote everyone, but they weren't going to let Dean make any more Lucic type deals that would set the franchise back a decade.

As far as the current Kings, I just worry that we are going down the path that other teams have done where you just keep adding picks and prospects but never really get better. The Kings have had a lot of picks, including a few very high picks, next year there has to be a breakthrough by one of these players or a trade to bring in a player. Someone mentioned Blake saying 2022 was the year they'd return to the playoffs, well unless QB really takes a huge step next year, and I'm talking 50+ point 2nd line center I just don't see it. They haven't had any of their picks really break through like some of the other teams have had, if QB being a big factor doesn't happen next year and they don't trade for a proven star like Eichel how does this team make the playoffs? They don't have a 2C and are as bad as anyone on the wing. They have a 1C, 1D and some nice pieces in the bottom six, but that is not going to get them into the playoffs.

 

[Statto]

They aren't ready for big trades. I could see them going after Gostisbehre and if that doesn't work, settling for someone like Goligoski. I think they will go after a decent winger or center as well. I doubt you see an Eichel or Laine type move yet.

Fox had a great line on the ATKM podcast in reference to needing to be patient. He said, you can make a trade that gets you closer to the playoffs but that takes you further from the Stanley Cup. I think he summed it up great...

 

[BigKing]

@Herby The question we will never know is if DL would have changed philosophies. He did jack shit his last off-season but then made moves at the 2017 TDL including the peculiar move to get Bishop. What we do know is that he didn't trade that 1st round pick at the TDL for more help so he probably keeps it...probably drafts Vilardi while he's at it.

Who knows what would have happened because Blake didn't rebuild either: he kept DL's team while not trading picks and prospects. Does DL go with Stevens too and get the same season in 2018? He probably doesn't sign Kovalchuk but maybe he tries for a move like the Patches trade.

I guess for me, I'd rather keep Lombardi for a rebuild as long as I know they are rebuilding. But they didn't rebuild when he was fired so it wasn't about who would be the best person for the rebuild job. It's funny that they said Blake was such a hot commodity so they had to make the move now to keep him: he's since made the playoffs once--in an inherited team that got swept--and then misjudged the roster and started an unexpected rebuild, at least in the sense that it was probably two years earlier than they thought it would be. What a hot commodity!

I'm half joking but, seriously, Blake hasn't done anything that Lombardi couldn't have done if given the chance. Are they drafting differently? Sure...more European players and less WHL it feels like but Vilardi, Turcotte and Byfield all seem like DL picks in those spots but, then again, it is the same scouting staff for the most part.

I guess it all comes down to if you believe DL knew a change in philosophy needed to be made and that he would have started to show that if he wasn't let go. I feel that way but I get why people look at his record over his last few years and think he would have "kept going for it" and not moved on from "his guys", never mind that Blake held on to all of them until the bottom actually fell out.

Could be for the best though...maybe Lombardi pulls of a move in the 2018 off-season that keeps the Kings in the black hole and the rebuild doesn't start.

 

[tomd]

Fox had a great line on the ATKM podcast in reference to needing to be patient. He said, you can make a trade that gets you closer to the playoffs but that takes you further from the Stanley Cup. I think he summed it up great...

Well, of course he is right if that trade would involve trading someone like Byfield for a player 10 years older. But NO ONE is suggesting any trade which would make George MacGuire proud. There are trades out there that can get you closer to the playoffs AND closer to the Stanley Cup. Is he saying don't make any trades at all? Or just don't mean stupid ones? Seems like a silly statement which is actually kind of insulting to the intelligence of the fanbase. Almost sounds like he doesn't trust Blake to make an intelligent trade.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Some good and maybe not so good points in here.

DL did a fantastic job building the roster around his 3 superstars, the Kings were not lucky to win those 2 cups. However it is fair to say that from the Doughty pick until the end of his tenure there was very little of substance added, a few 2nd/3rd liners and 2nd/3rd pairing defenders. When Richards collapsed almost overnight there was no once in the system to replace him, when Voynov ended his career there was no one to replace him, when Gaborik fell off and Williams left there was no one to replace them. People love to bring up quantity in drafting, but there has to be quality too, and there simply wasn't enough to maintain that team.

The 2006 Oilers and 2010 Flyers were lucky to almost win the cup. The Kings had a 3 year run where they won twice and lost to the only team that was going to beat them, it's quite different.

The Stoll/Greene trade paid dividends only when the Kings finally realized that Jarret Stoll was not going to be a 2nd line center in the NHL (sorry wherever you are JT Dutch). Stoll was excellent as a 3rd line center behind AK and MR and then AK and JC but lets be honest, the Kings made that trade expecting him to be a 2nd line center, and only after 3 years of failure was it corrected with the MR trade.

The 2014 Kings were not lucky or flukey, they chose the worst time in the world to have a three game losing streak but then responded like an elite championship team. The Sharks, Ducks and Hawks were 3 elite teams, you don't beat those three teams without being elite.

DL's issues, and IMO the reason he hasn't been given another job really came to the forefront immediately after that. DL simply could not view players as commodities. It started after the 2014 run with the absolutely inexplicable decision to not move on from Richards, there was zero chance any of the internal scouting staff could have justified keeping that salary after how bad he was in 2014, it was a GM override move that made no sense at the time and no sense now. To sign Gaborik for 6 years (lowering cap hit and pushing issues down the road) was another blunder, I loved Gabby and wanted him back, but offer him 3-4 years at a fair cap hit.

From there is was the complete inability to realize the window was shut, the Sekera trade was bad, not horrific like the other one, but it was bad. Andrej Sekera was not pushing a team out of the playoffs into contention, they knew they couldn't afford him so it was poor asset management, thankfully the 2016 draft was horrible. The Lucic trade, as discussed before is probably the worst trade the Kings have made since the 1980's. The Kings would have had a dozen years of 1C/2C play and gave it away (+ more) for a 1 year rental for a team that was a lot more than a Milan Lucic away from contention.

I know some still argue that DL should have been given a chance to rebuild and that he was stabbed in the back by Luc, but you can't rebuild if you can't make the tough decisions to move on from your "kids", can't rebuild if you don't view players and coaches as commodities. The decisions made from June 2014 to April 2017 were as bad as any Kings GM has ever made over a 3 year period and any team in the league would have moved on, I was not happy with the decision to basically promote everyone, but they weren't going to let Dean make any more Lucic type deals that would set the franchise back a decade.

As far as the current Kings, I just worry that we are going down the path that other teams have done where you just keep adding picks and prospects but never really get better. The Kings have had a lot of picks, including a few very high picks, next year there has to be a breakthrough by one of these players or a trade to bring in a player. Someone mentioned Blake saying 2022 was the year they'd return to the playoffs, well unless QB really takes a huge step next year, and I'm talking 50+ point 2nd line center I just don't see it. They haven't had any of their picks really break through like some of the other teams have had, if QB being a big factor doesn't happen next year and they don't trade for a proven star like Eichel how does this team make the playoffs? They don't have a 2C and are as bad as anyone on the wing. They have a 1C, 1D and some nice pieces in the bottom six, but that is not going to get them into the playoffs.

I mean, to his credit...how many GMs in a salary cap era CAN do that? That's almost exactly what it's designed to do...that's less a 'failure' and more a reality imo. Especially with a veteran team and a shitstorm of bad luck (Voynov especially).

We can parse the why of course but I'm not sure the Sekera trade was any worse than f***ing up a fax machine (Tallon), handing out NTCs to your whole roster despite a slew of other advantages (Yzerman), giving Seabrook intense term, etc. Every great GM has their share, live long enough in the job and eventually you'll look like a schmuck.

 

[Docgonzo]

I terms of our prospects now? I think players DL would’ve drafted are 50/50.

Byfield, Turcotte and Vilardi are all DL type players. I think Faber, Bjornfot, Andre Lee, JAD, Thomas and Fagemo are all up DL’s alley players.

But Kaliyev, Madden, Grans, Simontival, Nousinen, Kupari (I think DL would’ve drafted Miller) aren’t. At least I don’t think so.