Speculation: 2020-2021 Sharks Roster Discussion Part 9

[magic school bus]

I don’t think you need to pay him $10 million on the qualifying offer (1 year deal) if you can work out an extension next year (if he wants long term security he’d do another $6-7 million per year multi year deal.. if he wants to do what Hall did then yeah he can play for one year at $10 million and if he continues to be a 30 point player then he will likely be getting a $3 million deal with us or another team)

But the way he is playing now losing won't be a crippling blow. Declining for the 2nd year in a row and major warts starting to appear in his game. If he declines further then trading him for what we can instead of paying him for what may have been an outlier season 2 years ago seems wise.

I'll put in this way: does anybody want to sign Meier long term now? Knowing what we know about his game, consistency, hockey iq, defensive game, etc.

You almost have to make that decision now. With his contract he's 2 years away from FA so this is the last chance to move him for a big return.

 

[thrillermiller89]

I'll put in this way: does anybody want to sign Meier long term now? Knowing what we know about his game, consistency, hockey iq, defensive game, etc.

You almost have to make that decision now. With his contract he's 2 years away from FA so this is the last chance to move him for a big return.

I agree with you. I’m just saying there are options. The QO is a bad number. But if we have cap space I could see us giving him another long term deal in which the first year he makes 10, then it tapers down as the contract ages, keeping the AAV closer to 6 or 7

 

[seroes]

I'll put in this way: does anybody want to sign Meier long term now? Knowing what we know about his game, consistency, hockey iq, defensive game, etc.

You almost have to make that decision now. With his contract he's 2 years away from FA so this is the last chance to move him for a big return.

No. But I want to give him 1 more year to turn it around too.

 

[magic school bus]

No. But I want to give him 1 more year to turn it around too.

I wouldn't risk it. I've seen enough.

 

[Kat Predator]

Doesn't Bobrovsky have an NMC? If memory serves I don't think he is willing to waive. Karlsson may not either.

Yes. He does.

 

[Hodge]

Karlsson would make at least around $1 million more a year playing in Florida due to state taxes. He would be stupid not to waive especially since the Panthers also look like a much better team for now and the future. Bobrovsky is a goalie and goalies ultimately want to play so if Florida makes it clear they're going with Driedger/Knight I'm sure he would waive too.

 

[TheBeard]

I'll put in this way: does anybody want to sign Meier long term now? Knowing what we know about his game, consistency, hockey iq, defensive game, etc.

You almost have to make that decision now. With his contract he's 2 years away from FA so this is the last chance to move him for a big return.

If he’s the same player he is now in two years then he ain’t worth 6 mil let alone 10.

 

[Jargon]

Reading Kane’s exit interview it certainly sounds like DW told them he’s looking at trades/FA this season.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

My guess is Labanc,Jones,Nieto, Gambrell are all gone

 

[hockeyCEO]

I predict Sharks sign James Reimer for 2 years at $3M/year

 

[stator]

According to CF, Martin Jones is the 12th highest paid goalie in the NHL. That floored me, but it says more about DW than Jones.

Didn't I say that I would rather keep Reimer than Jones back then?

 

[STL Shark]

According to CF, Martin Jones is the 12th highest paid goalie in the NHL. That floored me, but it says more about DW than Jones.

Didn't I say that I would rather keep Reimer than Jones back then?

Except Jones had 2 years at $3 million a year and was coming off his first season as an NHL starter in which he backstopped the team to the SCF with a great regular season and elite postseason. No one was going to move on from Jones at that time, especially not to pay James Reimer $400k more per season than what Jones was making at that point in time.

I am fine to condemn DW for the Vlasic contract and Karlsson deals (though understand Karlsson moreso than Vlasic), but the blame on the Jones deal falls squarely on Jones. Going into the first year of the new deal, Jones was a slightly above league average regular season goalie and an elite playoff performer. The total 180 degree turn in his performance (and the fact that it has been sustained for 3 seasons now rather than a blip) falls squarely on Jones. He's the one that turned this contract into a laughable one, not DW because at the time it was signed it was a fair deal, even if probably a year too long for my taste.

 

[WSS11]

Reading Kane’s exit interview it certainly sounds like DW told them he’s looking at trades/FA this season.

Then he’s truly out to lunch. If DW has watched this mess over the last two years and thinks this coaching staff coupled with this roster plus a couple of tweaks is the way to go then I’m even more on the fire Doug Wilson train. He needs to sell what he can now, recoup futures, hold some cap space open while we rebuild then spend it.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Except Jones had 2 years at $3 million a year and was coming off his first season as an NHL starter in which he backstopped the team to the SCF with a great regular season and elite postseason. No one was going to move on from Jones at that time, especially not to pay James Reimer $400k more per season than what Jones was making at that point in time.

I am fine to condemn DW for the Vlasic contract and Karlsson deals (though understand Karlsson moreso than Vlasic), but the blame on the Jones deal falls squarely on Jones. Going into the first year of the new deal, Jones was a slightly above league average regular season goalie and an elite playoff performer. The total 180 degree turn in his performance (and the fact that it has been sustained for 3 seasons now rather than a blip) falls squarely on Jones. He's the one that turned this contract into a laughable one, not DW because at the time it was signed it was a fair deal, even if probably a year too long for my taste.

I don’t mind committing to Jones. I mind the three team trade list. I don’t care how good a goalie is doing, you don’t tie your hands that way to them.

 

[themelkman]

I predict Sharks sign James Reimer for 2 years at $3M/year

I would be pretty sad if thats the answer Doug comes up with. So many better goalies

 

[tiburon12]

He needs to sell what he can now, recoup futures, hold some cap space open while we rebuild then spend it.

Using @WSS11's post to open a conversation, nothing directed at them

I see this opinion a lot, but i don't see a lot of realistic proposals for selling our assets.

I'm someone in the camp that feels that DW has to make moves to compete next year because selling off assets and tanking isn't a realistic option.

The idea that any team will take the Vlasic, Burns, or Jones contracts is wishful thinking, plus the return will be horrible/Sharks may have to pay. And, if you don't move one of those, then selling Hertl or Meier or Kane, etc for picks is worthless. As soon as those bad contracts expire, Couture's and Karlsson's contracts will be even worse.

So, what are people in the "rebuild camp" thinking we can realistically get for our players? Why do you think a rebuild is possible?

 

[WSS11]

Using @WSS11's post to open a conversation, nothing directed at them

I see this opinion a lot, but i don't see a lot of realistic proposals for selling our assets.

I'm someone in the camp that feels that DW has to make moves to compete next year because selling off assets and tanking isn't a realistic option.

The idea that any team will take the Vlasic, Burns, or Jones contracts is wishful thinking, plus the return will be horrible/Sharks may have to pay. And, if you don't move one of those, then selling Hertl or Meier or Kane, etc for picks is worthless. As soon as those bad contracts expire, Couture's and Karlsson's contracts will be even worse.

So, what are people in the "rebuild camp" thinking we can realistically get for our players? Why do you think a rebuild is possible?

Oh don’t get me wrong, we’re going to have to eat Vlasic, Karlsson and Jones contracts. They’re not going anywhere. DW made his bed there and he’ll have to lay in it. However, dealing the likes of Kane, Labanc, Hertl, and at least one of Couture or Burns (even with retention to increase the value of return) should net us a pretty good combo of picks and prospects.

The other option that I believe you are alluding to is to make some moves to compete next year. What does that entail? Selling off more futures for short term fixes? Adding another questionable contract in the hopes of being competitive? this team has finished bottom 7 the last two seasons. The time for patching holes is over.

Listen, DW has kept this team in the hunt by doing just that while we had a prime Joe and Marleau to build around. that time is done and now DW is having to pay the piper. By continuing this cycle of patching holes with this run down core, he’d just be delaying the inevitable. The inevitable is that we have to rebuild through the draft for long term success like Tampa, Pitt, Colorado, and Chicago.

 

[Hodge]

Using @WSS11's post to open a conversation, nothing directed at them

I see this opinion a lot, but i don't see a lot of realistic proposals for selling our assets.

I'm someone in the camp that feels that DW has to make moves to compete next year because selling off assets and tanking isn't a realistic option.

The idea that any team will take the Vlasic, Burns, or Jones contracts is wishful thinking, plus the return will be horrible/Sharks may have to pay. And, if you don't move one of those, then selling Hertl or Meier or Kane, etc for picks is worthless. As soon as those bad contracts expire, Couture's and Karlsson's contracts will be even worse.

So, what are people in the "rebuild camp" thinking we can realistically get for our players? Why do you think a rebuild is possible?

Jones can be bought out relatively painlessly this summer or next. Thanks to the structure of their signing bonuses Vlasic and Couture both become pretty easy to buy out in 2023 (and easier each subsequent year). Unless Burns falls off a cliff you could probably move him at 50% with 2 years left if you really wanted/needed to. So it's really just the next 2 years, maybe 3 max that we're really stuck in cap hell with no way out. You would also hope the cap starts to rise again after those 2-3 years. If you accept that we have no feasible way of building a serious Cup contender over the next 2-3 years due to the sheer amount of cap space tied up in severely underperforming players then the obvious path would be to get the highest draft picks you can in those years.

While I would trade Hertl and eventually Meier to accelerate this process I don't think you absolutely need to. The results of the past two seasons speak for themselves: this team sucks and as long as you don't add top end talent (which is pretty much impossible thanks to the cap/assets situation anyway) they will continue to suck. One "silver lining" to COVID is we've burned two years off all these godawful contracts without even having to play two full seasons.

 

[tiburon12]

Oh don’t get me wrong, we’re going to have to eat Vlasic, Karlsson and Jones contracts. They’re not going anywhere. DW made his bed there and he’ll have to lay in it. However, dealing the likes of Kane, Labanc, Hertl, and at least one of Couture or Burns (even with retention to increase the value of return) should net us a pretty good combo of picks and prospects.

The other option that I believe you are alluding to is to make some moves to compete next year. What does that entail? Selling off more futures for short term fixes? Adding another questionable contract in the hopes of being competitive? this team has finished bottom 7 the last two seasons. The time for patching holes is over.

Listen, DW has kept this team in the hunt by doing just that while we had a prime Joe and Marleau to build around. that time is done and now DW is having to pay the piper. By continuing this cycle of patching holes with this run down core, he’d just be delaying the inevitable. The inevitable is that we have to rebuild through the draft for long term success like Tampa, Pitt, Colorado, and Chicago.

I agree in concept, but i don't think selling is realistic or the best option. I think regardless of when the team rebuilds, they aren't out of it until 2027 when Karlsson's and Couture's deals are up.

I think the best chance this team has come out of this situation is to, as you said, address the holes. If we have to eat the contracts, then work with them. Build a roster around Kane, Karlsson, Meier, and Labanc, 4 guys who can skate and are creative. Build rush-heavy system like Florida and fill in the secondary parts with players who can play fast. Make hockey trades and work free-agency. If that delays the rebuild, ok.


But back to the topic at hand: you named Kane, Labanc, Hertl, Couture, Burns as targets to sell in order to get a good return. Can you (or anyone) give me a realistic return and trade partner for each of them? all i'm getting is wishful speculation (from everyone)

 

[Juxtaposer]

Using @WSS11's post to open a conversation, nothing directed at them

I see this opinion a lot, but i don't see a lot of realistic proposals for selling our assets.

I'm someone in the camp that feels that DW has to make moves to compete next year because selling off assets and tanking isn't a realistic option.

The idea that any team will take the Vlasic, Burns, or Jones contracts is wishful thinking, plus the return will be horrible/Sharks may have to pay. And, if you don't move one of those, then selling Hertl or Meier or Kane, etc for picks is worthless. As soon as those bad contracts expire, Couture's and Karlsson's contracts will be even worse.

So, what are people in the "rebuild camp" thinking we can realistically get for our players? Why do you think a rebuild is possible?

My plan would be a two year tank and then two more years to make the playoffs (growing pains of young players and running out years of bad contracts).

No rebuild succeeds without luck. Let me preface my whole argument with that statement. The Penguins never win a single Cup if they don’t win the Crosby lottery. The Hawks never sniff the Cup without winning the Patrick Kane pick. The Kings don’t win without Doughty, the Lighting without Hedman, and the Avalanche and Leafs don’t look like juggernauts without winning the Mackinnon and Matthews picks. Imagine if the Leafs hadn’t won Matthews. Would anyone think they’d be any good?

With that said, the idea of “rebuilding” revolves around getting some good luck, by which I mean maximizing your odds of getting superstars via the draft and also getting lucky enough to win them. Shane Wright (2022), Connor Bedard (2023), and Matvei Michkov (2023) are the big prizes of the next two seasons; part of the luck is actually bottoming out in seasons that actually have potential superstars, unlike this year, and the Sharks can do just that if they play their cards right.

This off-season I would move Hertl and Burns. Hertl would get a nice package (a mid 1st and a top prospect has been offered lots of times on the main boards) to help shore up the prospect pool. Burns would have positive value, I feel, as unlike Vlasic and Karlsson he is still a good player, and he only has 4 years left of his contract. I wouldn’t expect a huge return or anything, but I don’t think we’d have too much trouble moving him. Buy-out Jones this summer and go with Melnichuk and Korenar in net next season; we know they’re awful, but DW could at least pretend that he’s “evaluating internal options before exploring outside help” for a year.

So now you’ve cleared out quite a bit of cap and acquired three excellent prospects (our 1st will be a blue chipper, plus the 1st and prospect from the Hertl deal) to add to Bordeleau and Weisblatt, all five of whom are marinating in juniors or the AHL. You play out the year, giving Couture, Labanc, and Meier a chance to boost their value while wasting away another year of the Vlasic and Karlsson contracts and being a truly god-awful team. The prize of 2022 is obviously Shane Wright, but it’s a strong draft even after Wright. You add to your group of prospects. You move Couture to a playoff team who needs help at center (I have no doubt we’ll find a suitor for him). If you can find good deals for Meier or Labanc, think about it, but if you determine they’re worth keeping them keep them.

Let’s say the unthinkable happens and we actually get blessed with some lottery luck. Your group of youngsters now stands as Wright, Ferraro, Meier, Bordeleau, 2021 7th overall (let’s say L. Hughes), 2021 mid-1st (let’s say Pinelli), top prospect from Hertl trade, (Zach Jones from NYR has been offered), and our host of middle-six wingers (Labanc/Balcers/Barabanov/etc.). Kane and Karlsson are the vets.

If possible, tank again in 2023. Then address the goaltending and go from there.

I won’t pretend that tanking is a guaranteed success, obviously. But it’s a helluva lot better option than whatever Doug is doing now.

 

[undercovernerd]

My plan would be a two year tank and then two more years to make the playoffs (growing pains of young players and running out years of bad contracts).

No rebuild succeeds without luck. Let me preface my whole argument with that statement. The Penguins never win a single Cup if they don’t win the Crosby lottery. The Hawks never sniff the Cup without winning the Patrick Kane pick. The Kings don’t win without Doughty, the Lighting without Hedman, and the Avalanche and Leafs don’t look like juggernauts without winning the Mackinnon and Matthews picks. Imagine if the Leafs hadn’t won Matthews. Would anyone think they’d be any good?

With that said, the idea of “rebuilding” revolves around getting some good luck, by which I mean maximizing your odds of getting superstars via the draft and also getting lucky enough to win them. Shane Wright (2022), Connor Bedard (2023), and Matvei Michkov (2023) are the big prizes of the next two seasons; part of the luck is actually bottoming out in seasons that actually have potential superstars, unlike this year, and the Sharks can do just that if they play their cards right.

This off-season I would move Hertl and Burns. Hertl would get a nice package (a mid 1st and a top prospect has been offered lots of times on the main boards) to help shore up the prospect pool. Burns would have positive value, I feel, as unlike Vlasic and Karlsson he is still a good player, and he only has 4 years left of his contract. I wouldn’t expect a huge return or anything, but I don’t think we’d have too much trouble moving him. Buy-out Jones this summer and go with Melnichuk and Korenar in net next season; we know they’re awful, but DW could at least pretend that he’s “evaluating internal options before exploring outside help” for a year.

So now you’ve cleared out quite a bit of cap and acquired three excellent prospects (our 1st will be a blue chipper, plus the 1st and prospect from the Hertl deal) to add to Bordeleau and Weisblatt, all five of whom are marinating in juniors or the AHL. You play out the year, giving Couture, Labanc, and Meier a chance to boost their value while wasting away another year of the Vlasic and Karlsson contracts and being a truly god-awful team. The prize of 2022 is obviously Shane Wright, but it’s a strong draft even after Wright. You add to your group of prospects. You move Couture to a playoff team who needs help at center (I have no doubt we’ll find a suitor for him). If you can find good deals for Meier or Labanc, think about it, but if you determine they’re worth keeping them keep them.

Let’s say the unthinkable happens and we actually get blessed with some lottery luck. Your group of youngsters now stands as Wright, Ferraro, Meier, Bordeleau, 2021 7th overall (let’s say L. Hughes), 2021 mid-1st (let’s say Pinelli), top prospect from Hertl trade, (Zach Jones from NYR has been offered), and our host of middle-six wingers (Labanc/Balcers/Barabanov/etc.). Kane and Karlsson are the vets.

If possible, tank again in 2023. Then address the goaltending and go from there.

I won’t pretend that tanking is a guaranteed success, obviously. But it’s a helluva lot better option than whatever Doug is doing now.

A mid first for hertl? Hertl shouldn’t be traded unless it’s for a haul. Heck, Goodie got us a late 1st.

 

[DisbeliefInDW]

Reading Kane’s exit interview it certainly sounds like DW told them he’s looking at trades/FA this season.

Of course he is, as most the fanbase knows he has his head up his ass. Others as well as I have said we can't see him not only doing much, but doing absolutely nothing in the way of shipping people out. Where he's gonna get the cap space to sign UFAs/make trades? No idea, but it would require trading someone if it's anything more than a Reimer or wannabe 3rd line- 4th line center, which is why I doubt he really does anything. This board seems to be mainly for shooting the shit on what should happen, not will.

Also, we're more than a year since the Goodrow trade. Can we stop saying Goodrow got a 1st round pick? He didnt. Goodrow AND a 3rd round pick (very close to a 2nd rounder) got a 1st round pick (also very close to a second rounder, if not basically one). Completely different than "gOoDrOw FoR a FiRsT". Didn't get a single extra pick out of the trade and lost the only reliable 4th liner Sharks have had in years. Of course on a bad team you try to deal him, for something better than you actually got of course, but on a good team you never trade him.

 

[TheBeard]

Pittsburgh should have traded for Martin Jones

 

[tiburon12]

My plan would be a two year tank and then two more years to make the playoffs (growing pains of young players and running out years of bad contracts).

No rebuild succeeds without luck. Let me preface my whole argument with that statement. The Penguins never win a single Cup if they don’t win the Crosby lottery. The Hawks never sniff the Cup without winning the Patrick Kane pick. The Kings don’t win without Doughty, the Lighting without Hedman, and the Avalanche and Leafs don’t look like juggernauts without winning the Mackinnon and Matthews picks. Imagine if the Leafs hadn’t won Matthews. Would anyone think they’d be any good?

With that said, the idea of “rebuilding” revolves around getting some good luck, by which I mean maximizing your odds of getting superstars via the draft and also getting lucky enough to win them. Shane Wright (2022), Connor Bedard (2023), and Matvei Michkov (2023) are the big prizes of the next two seasons; part of the luck is actually bottoming out in seasons that actually have potential superstars, unlike this year, and the Sharks can do just that if they play their cards right.

This off-season I would move Hertl and Burns. Hertl would get a nice package (a mid 1st and a top prospect has been offered lots of times on the main boards) to help shore up the prospect pool. Burns would have positive value, I feel, as unlike Vlasic and Karlsson he is still a good player, and he only has 4 years left of his contract. I wouldn’t expect a huge return or anything, but I don’t think we’d have too much trouble moving him. Buy-out Jones this summer and go with Melnichuk and Korenar in net next season; we know they’re awful, but DW could at least pretend that he’s “evaluating internal options before exploring outside help” for a year.

So now you’ve cleared out quite a bit of cap and acquired three excellent prospects (our 1st will be a blue chipper, plus the 1st and prospect from the Hertl deal) to add to Bordeleau and Weisblatt, all five of whom are marinating in juniors or the AHL. You play out the year, giving Couture, Labanc, and Meier a chance to boost their value while wasting away another year of the Vlasic and Karlsson contracts and being a truly god-awful team. The prize of 2022 is obviously Shane Wright, but it’s a strong draft even after Wright. You add to your group of prospects. You move Couture to a playoff team who needs help at center (I have no doubt we’ll find a suitor for him). If you can find good deals for Meier or Labanc, think about it, but if you determine they’re worth keeping them keep them.

Let’s say the unthinkable happens and we actually get blessed with some lottery luck. Your group of youngsters now stands as Wright, Ferraro, Meier, Bordeleau, 2021 7th overall (let’s say L. Hughes), 2021 mid-1st (let’s say Pinelli), top prospect from Hertl trade, (Zach Jones from NYR has been offered), and our host of middle-six wingers (Labanc/Balcers/Barabanov/etc.). Kane and Karlsson are the vets.

If possible, tank again in 2023. Then address the goaltending and go from there.

I won’t pretend that tanking is a guaranteed success, obviously. But it’s a helluva lot better option than whatever Doug is doing now.

This plan is pretty solid in concept. But as you said, a lot banks on luck in the draft, both lottery and development, and on other teams taking our bad contracts. To me that's more much riskier than what DW seems to be planning now. I'm fully open to having my mind changed, but i'm just not seeing any realistic way to execute these plans.

For the Hertl trade, who are those trade target teams? Anyone trading for Hertl is in win-now mode, meaning the pick will likely be late first after Hertl puts them over the top. That puts a lot of pressure on the prospect panning out. How realistic is it to find a team that's in win-now mode with a blue chip prospect they're willing to give up?

Burns - I really don't think there's a market for him. His contract is huge and his say in where he goes limits things a lot. I don't think he wants to leave either. To me, it seems more likely he stays than gets traded.

Couture - Do you really think a team is gonna take is going to take a $8mil aging center for 5 years? To me thats a late 2010s Arizona team who takes that contract. and Couture has 3-team list. Also doesn't seem realistic to me, but im curious to think who you have in mind as a trade partner.

As for the rest of the plan, if drafting works out in the Sharks' favor, you still have 4 years of Karlsson's deal and 3 of Vlasic's. thats 18.5 in dead weight taking up 1/3 of your blueline. That's the main reason i feel a rebuild cant really be "over" and the team contend until Karlsson and Vlasic are gone. 6 years is a loooong time

Selling is going to be really hard and probably not A) actually work for every player we want gone and B) yield the return we want. Plus, selling only gets us draft/development capital, and the Sharks haven't been great at maximizing.

Sorry, but i'm just not seeing it being the better option

 

[Kcoyote3]

Exit Interview: Boughner on What Went Right, Wrong for Sharks

Exit interview has some good bits from Boughner and some really bizarre bits.

"Our shooting mentality is not good enough. You should be able to generate multiple chances on your power play. Sometimes, when you’re out there for 30-40 seconds, moving it around, not getting a shot, I think we need to filter more pucks to the net, not necessarily to try picking a corner, it’s to get pucks there, so we can collapse and we can outnumber at the net. I thought for the most part of the season, we got a little too picky on our shot selection. And when we did shoot, we didn’t have enough traffic at the net."

I feel like our powerplay and our offensive scheme in general is shoot from the right point. That's it. I wouldn't describe it as too picky. We do a lot of cycling back and forth until Burns or Karlsson decide to whip it into someone's shins. It's garbage and needs to be changed.