Speculation: 2020-2021 Sharks Roster Discussion Part 9

[STL Shark]

Exit Interview: Boughner on What Went Right, Wrong for Sharks

Exit interview has some good bits from Boughner and some really bizarre bits.

"Our shooting mentality is not good enough. You should be able to generate multiple chances on your power play. Sometimes, when you’re out there for 30-40 seconds, moving it around, not getting a shot, I think we need to filter more pucks to the net, not necessarily to try picking a corner, it’s to get pucks there, so we can collapse and we can outnumber at the net. I thought for the most part of the season, we got a little too picky on our shot selection. And when we did shoot, we didn’t have enough traffic at the net."

I feel like our powerplay and our offensive scheme in general is shoot from the right point. That's it. I wouldn't describe it as too picky. We do a lot of cycling back and forth until Burns or Karlsson decide to whip it into someone's shins. It's garbage and needs to be changed.

That was the DeBoer system, but that’s not at all been the system the past 1.5 seasons under Boughner. Burns’ 82 game pace for shots was down 60 shots from last year to this year and 100 shots from 2018-19 to this year. Karlsson had 169 shots in 53 games in 2018-19 (first year with SJ) while only having 110 in 52 games this year. Given those two play close to 80% of the minutes at RD, there’s no justifiable way you can say our offense revolves around too many shots from the right point anymore based on those stats. Boughner is 100% correct in needing to shoot the puck more.

 

[hohosaregood]

My issue with the powerplay is the lack of movement off the puck. It's too structured in terms of positioning and set plays. The only way to open up lanes is through quick puck movement and precise execution which is completely lacking right now.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

A mid first for hertl? Hertl shouldn’t be traded unless it’s for a haul. Heck, Goodie got us a late 1st.

Goodie didn't get us a late 1st. Goodie and a 3rd allowed us to move up a round and a half. People need to stop pointing to that trade without acknowledging the other piece that helped to make that happen.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

My issue with the powerplay is the lack of movement off the puck. It's too structured in terms of positioning and set plays. The only way to open up lanes is through quick puck movement and precise execution which is completely lacking right now.

This team is missing Pavelski in so many ways.

 

[WSS11]

This plan is pretty solid in concept. But as you said, a lot banks on luck in the draft, both lottery and development, and on other teams taking our bad contracts. To me that's more much riskier than what DW seems to be planning now. I'm fully open to having my mind changed, but i'm just not seeing any realistic way to execute these plans.

For the Hertl trade, who are those trade target teams? Anyone trading for Hertl is in win-now mode, meaning the pick will likely be late first after Hertl puts them over the top. That puts a lot of pressure on the prospect panning out. How realistic is it to find a team that's in win-now mode with a blue chip prospect they're willing to give up?

Burns - I really don't think there's a market for him. His contract is huge and his say in where he goes limits things a lot. I don't think he wants to leave either. To me, it seems more likely he stays than gets traded.

Couture - Do you really think a team is gonna take is going to take a $8mil aging center for 5 years? To me thats a late 2010s Arizona team who takes that contract. and Couture has 3-team list. Also doesn't seem realistic to me, but im curious to think who you have in mind as a trade partner.

As for the rest of the plan, if drafting works out in the Sharks' favor, you still have 4 years of Karlsson's deal and 3 of Vlasic's. thats 18.5 in dead weight taking up 1/3 of your blueline. That's the main reason i feel a rebuild cant really be "over" and the team contend until Karlsson and Vlasic are gone. 6 years is a loooong time

Selling is going to be really hard and probably not A) actually work for every player we want gone and B) yield the return we want. Plus, selling only gets us draft/development capital, and the Sharks haven't been great at maximizing.

Sorry, but i'm just not seeing it being the better option

It’s hard to say whom we’d be able to trade with because of the determining factors surrounding a trade (I.e. the players trade list, who is in the market, DW willingness to retain etc.). We’re only fans so we’re not having those convos.

However, Let’s take Hertl for example. Say Colorado comes up just short of the cup and they peg a bonafide 2C as the missing piece to go for it all. Hertl, is the perfect piece with a very attractive cap hit. I could see them going for it and trading Byram + a 1st before they actually have to pay Mackinnon the monster contract he’s due. Sometimes GMs get desperate and will pay that price.

 

[magic school bus]

A mid first for hertl? Hertl shouldn’t be traded unless it’s for a haul. Heck, Goodie got us a late 1st.

Yeah Hertl should be worth a ton even with 1 yr left. Big skilled center, wins faceoffs, scores goals. Big time asset.

 

[Hodge]

Hertl is worth at least two 1sts right now. Or a 1st plus someone drafted in the 1st round within the last two years who is trending well.

 

[DG93]

My plan would be a two year tank and then two more years to make the playoffs (growing pains of young players and running out years of bad contracts).

No rebuild succeeds without luck. Let me preface my whole argument with that statement. The Penguins never win a single Cup if they don’t win the Crosby lottery. The Hawks never sniff the Cup without winning the Patrick Kane pick. The Kings don’t win without Doughty, the Lighting without Hedman, and the Avalanche and Leafs don’t look like juggernauts without winning the Mackinnon and Matthews picks. Imagine if the Leafs hadn’t won Matthews. Would anyone think they’d be any good?

With that said, the idea of “rebuilding” revolves around getting some good luck, by which I mean maximizing your odds of getting superstars via the draft and also getting lucky enough to win them. Shane Wright (2022), Connor Bedard (2023), and Matvei Michkov (2023) are the big prizes of the next two seasons; part of the luck is actually bottoming out in seasons that actually have potential superstars, unlike this year, and the Sharks can do just that if they play their cards right.

This off-season I would move Hertl and Burns. Hertl would get a nice package (a mid 1st and a top prospect has been offered lots of times on the main boards) to help shore up the prospect pool. Burns would have positive value, I feel, as unlike Vlasic and Karlsson he is still a good player, and he only has 4 years left of his contract. I wouldn’t expect a huge return or anything, but I don’t think we’d have too much trouble moving him. Buy-out Jones this summer and go with Melnichuk and Korenar in net next season; we know they’re awful, but DW could at least pretend that he’s “evaluating internal options before exploring outside help” for a year.

So now you’ve cleared out quite a bit of cap and acquired three excellent prospects (our 1st will be a blue chipper, plus the 1st and prospect from the Hertl deal) to add to Bordeleau and Weisblatt, all five of whom are marinating in juniors or the AHL. You play out the year, giving Couture, Labanc, and Meier a chance to boost their value while wasting away another year of the Vlasic and Karlsson contracts and being a truly god-awful team. The prize of 2022 is obviously Shane Wright, but it’s a strong draft even after Wright. You add to your group of prospects. You move Couture to a playoff team who needs help at center (I have no doubt we’ll find a suitor for him). If you can find good deals for Meier or Labanc, think about it, but if you determine they’re worth keeping them keep them.

Let’s say the unthinkable happens and we actually get blessed with some lottery luck. Your group of youngsters now stands as Wright, Ferraro, Meier, Bordeleau, 2021 7th overall (let’s say L. Hughes), 2021 mid-1st (let’s say Pinelli), top prospect from Hertl trade, (Zach Jones from NYR has been offered), and our host of middle-six wingers (Labanc/Balcers/Barabanov/etc.). Kane and Karlsson are the vets.

If possible, tank again in 2023. Then address the goaltending and go from there.

I won’t pretend that tanking is a guaranteed success, obviously. But it’s a helluva lot better option than whatever Doug is doing now.

I like this plan, but I think if the tank works in 2021-2022, this team won't be able to land a bottom-3 pick in 2023 to get Michkov or Bedard unless they keep everyone other than Wright/Lambert/Savoie (ie Bordeleau, Wiesblatt, etc.) all in the minors for another season.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Great plan

This is a good plan (of course, the devil is in how you react when the unexpected happens, or when you don't get draft luck). It is a great outline, at least.

I don't think DW could execute it. Not just because of his history with the team, but because it is inimical to his mindset.

So the major part of your plan that is missing is to get a competent GM who shares this vision...another piece of luck that the Sharks will need.

 

[Kcoyote3]

I think DW is going to buyout Jones, and try to acquire a goalie in expansion. Adin Hill or one of Elvis/Korpisalo/Tarasov/Kivlenieks from Columbus. Probably Kivlenieks.

If he fails at that he's gonna go for UFA Driedger or Ullmark. If he fails at that he's gonna sign a stopgap.

 

[tealzamboni]

Exit Interview: Boughner on What Went Right, Wrong for Sharks

Exit interview has some good bits from Boughner and some really bizarre bits.

"Our shooting mentality is not good enough. You should be able to generate multiple chances on your power play. Sometimes, when you’re out there for 30-40 seconds, moving it around, not getting a shot, I think we need to filter more pucks to the net, not necessarily to try picking a corner, it’s to get pucks there, so we can collapse and we can outnumber at the net. I thought for the most part of the season, we got a little too picky on our shot selection. And when we did shoot, we didn’t have enough traffic at the net."

I feel like our powerplay and our offensive scheme in general is shoot from the right point. That's it. I wouldn't describe it as too picky. We do a lot of cycling back and forth until Burns or Karlsson decide to whip it into someone's shins. It's garbage and needs to be changed.

I guess it's to be expected that Boughner and the org are all in on the danger areas + many shots/chances hockey train. High, low, high, left, right, shot, high, right, left, shot, etc.. is the way of the Shork.
Maybe he did talk about it, but I would've liked to hear him talk about improving breakouts and zone entries - to generate better and more varied shots/chances.

This is a good plan (of course, the devil is in how you react when the unexpected happens, or when you don't get draft luck). It is a great outline, at least.

I don't think DW could execute it. Not just because of his history with the team, but because it is inimical to his mindset.

So the major part of your plan that is missing is to get a competent GM who shares this vision...another piece of luck that the Sharks will need.

June 2024

Last night, the San Jose Sharks were again ousted from the playoffs by the Vegas Golden Knights, despite a historically efficient power play enroute to a President's Trophy. The Sharks, headlined by captain Logan Couture, the core of Evander Kane, Erik Karlsson, Tomas Hertl and budding stars Shane Wright and Connor Bedard, were outmatched in five-on-five play by the Pete DeBoer led Knights. DeBoer constantly rolled four lines, while Boughner relied heavily on his top two lines.

Coach Bob Boughner was proud of his team's season, but disappointed with the officiating. Boughner told journalists that "We felt there were too many missed calls and power play opportunities throughout the series. The department of player safety should have suspended Reaves and Carrier [for injuring enforcer Kurtis Gabriel and the 40 year old Joe Pavelski, who was resigned the past offseason to center the third line.] Still, we had missed chances on five on five. We were getting to the danger areas and chances, but we have to be quicker in pulling the trigger. The windows were there, but we didn't capitalize on them like on the power play."

When asked if his top-heavy roster lacked the depth and goaltending to compete with the Knights, General Manager Doug Wilson said "We are incredibly proud of the professionalism and dedication of this Sharks team. This was a historic season and a historic team. These players have a bright future ahead of them and should compete for many years."

Without a draft pick for the next three drafts and the need to improve goaltending and the third and four lines, Wilson was optimistic, stating that "We are confident in a group of young prospects with the Barracuda. Roy Sommer has done a terrific job developing them. Our development assistants Mike Ricci, Patrick Marleau, and Bryan Marchment have raved about their progress throughout the season. We feel that some can compete for a spot next season to contribute to the team."

 

[CupfortheSharks]

My plan would be a two year tank and then two more years to make the playoffs (growing pains of young players and running out years of bad contracts).

No rebuild succeeds without luck. Let me preface my whole argument with that statement. The Penguins never win a single Cup if they don’t win the Crosby lottery. The Hawks never sniff the Cup without winning the Patrick Kane pick. The Kings don’t win without Doughty, the Lighting without Hedman, and the Avalanche and Leafs don’t look like juggernauts without winning the Mackinnon and Matthews picks. Imagine if the Leafs hadn’t won Matthews. Would anyone think they’d be any good?

With that said, the idea of “rebuilding” revolves around getting some good luck, by which I mean maximizing your odds of getting superstars via the draft and also getting lucky enough to win them. Shane Wright (2022), Connor Bedard (2023), and Matvei Michkov (2023) are the big prizes of the next two seasons; part of the luck is actually bottoming out in seasons that actually have potential superstars, unlike this year, and the Sharks can do just that if they play their cards right.

This off-season I would move Hertl and Burns. Hertl would get a nice package (a mid 1st and a top prospect has been offered lots of times on the main boards) to help shore up the prospect pool. Burns would have positive value, I feel, as unlike Vlasic and Karlsson he is still a good player, and he only has 4 years left of his contract. I wouldn’t expect a huge return or anything, but I don’t think we’d have too much trouble moving him. Buy-out Jones this summer and go with Melnichuk and Korenar in net next season; we know they’re awful, but DW could at least pretend that he’s “evaluating internal options before exploring outside help” for a year.

So now you’ve cleared out quite a bit of cap and acquired three excellent prospects (our 1st will be a blue chipper, plus the 1st and prospect from the Hertl deal) to add to Bordeleau and Weisblatt, all five of whom are marinating in juniors or the AHL. You play out the year, giving Couture, Labanc, and Meier a chance to boost their value while wasting away another year of the Vlasic and Karlsson contracts and being a truly god-awful team. The prize of 2022 is obviously Shane Wright, but it’s a strong draft even after Wright. You add to your group of prospects. You move Couture to a playoff team who needs help at center (I have no doubt we’ll find a suitor for him). If you can find good deals for Meier or Labanc, think about it, but if you determine they’re worth keeping them keep them.

Let’s say the unthinkable happens and we actually get blessed with some lottery luck. Your group of youngsters now stands as Wright, Ferraro, Meier, Bordeleau, 2021 7th overall (let’s say L. Hughes), 2021 mid-1st (let’s say Pinelli), top prospect from Hertl trade, (Zach Jones from NYR has been offered), and our host of middle-six wingers (Labanc/Balcers/Barabanov/etc.). Kane and Karlsson are the vets.

If possible, tank again in 2023. Then address the goaltending and go from there.

I won’t pretend that tanking is a guaranteed success, obviously. But it’s a helluva lot better option than whatever Doug is doing now.

Nicely done. I would make 2 adjustments. You could also sell Kane this off season. It would be better to bury Jones in the AHL. Since you aren’t going to need the cap space immediately, you can avoid burning cap space in future years.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I guess it's to be expected that Boughner and the org are all in on the danger areas + many shots/chances hockey train. High, low, high, left, right, shot, high, right, left, shot, etc.. is the way of the Shork.
Maybe he did talk about it, but I would've liked to hear him talk about improving breakouts and zone entries - to generate better and more varied shots/chances.






June 2024

Last night, the San Jose Sharks were again ousted from the playoffs by the Vegas Golden Knights, despite a historically efficient power play enroute to a President's Trophy. The Sharks, headlined by captain Logan Couture, the core of Evander Kane, Erik Karlsson, Tomas Hertl and budding stars Shane Wright and Connor Bedard, were outmatched in five-on-five play by the Pete DeBoer led Knights. DeBoer constantly rolled four lines, while Boughner relied heavily on his top two lines.

Coach Bob Boughner was proud of his team's season, but disappointed with the officiating. Boughner told journalists that "We felt there were too many missed calls and power play opportunities throughout the series. The department of player safety should have suspended Reaves and Carrier [for injuring enforcer Kurtis Gabriel and the 40 year old Joe Pavelski, who was resigned the past offseason to center the third line.] Still, we had missed chances on five on five. We were getting to the danger areas and chances, but we have to be quicker in pulling the trigger. The windows were there, but we didn't capitalize on them like on the power play."

When asked if his top-heavy roster lacked the depth and goaltending to compete with the Knights, General Manager Doug Wilson said "We are incredibly proud of the professionalism and dedication of this Sharks team. This was a historic season and a historic team. These players have a bright future ahead of them and should compete for many years."

Without a draft pick for the next three drafts and the need to improve goaltending and the third and four lines, Wilson was optimistic, stating that "We are confident in a group of young prospects with the Barracuda. Roy Sommer has done a terrific job developing them. Our development assistants Mike Ricci, Patrick Marleau, and Bryan Marchment have raved about their progress throughout the season. We feel that some can compete for a spot next season to contribute to the team."

I appreciate the amount of time and effort that you obviously put into this, but I’m awfully confused as to what it is. If the Sharks somehow won Wright and Bedard, and won the President’s trophy the year after, how would that even remotely be a bad thing? Not winning a Cup in Bedard’s rookie season seems like a reasonable outcome, especially if the problems you list (mediocre depth, coaching, and goaltending) are so easy to fix.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

If I can't move anyone with a clause, I'd trade Meier and Labanc for what they can get. Bury Jones and let next season suck too. If Hertl wants to stay that's fine but deal if possible. No sense buying out if you're rebuilding and not a cap team. But hey if there are deals to take cap space for futures to that degree then buy out.

 

[tealzamboni]

I appreciate the amount of time and effort that you obviously put into this, but I’m awfully confused as to what it is. If the Sharks somehow won Wright and Bedard, and won the President’s trophy the year after, how would that even remotely be a bad thing? Not winning a Cup in Bedard’s rookie season seems like a reasonable outcome, especially if the problems you list (mediocre depth, coaching, and goaltending) are so easy to fix.

Oh my bad - I think the confusion is that I didn't fully read your plan in the previous quote. I was just responding to the comment about the GM being a factor in any plan. So, my fantasy future timeline actually kind of coincided with your plan.

In my hypothetical timeline, Doug Wilson didn't rely on luck. He traded everything he had to get Wright and Bedard. It was to poke fun that Wilson (or many GMs to be fair) could have two generational talents, yet still be in a similar scenario of just good enough, there's always next year, and continue with business as usual.

 

[magic school bus]

If I can't move anyone with a clause, I'd trade Meier and Labanc for what they can get. Bury Jones and let next season suck too. If Hertl wants to stay that's fine but deal if possible. No sense buying out if you're rebuilding and not a cap team. But hey if there are deals to take cap space for futures to that degree then buy out.

I hadn't considered that last part. But our gm thinks we're competing so he'll probably buy him out smh.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I hadn't considered that last part. But our gm thinks we're competing so he'll probably buy him out smh.

A buyout is acceptable if you're using the space made. If they're competing, it makes sense. Just don't agree with it.

 

[STL Shark]

If I can't move anyone with a clause, I'd trade Meier and Labanc for what they can get. Bury Jones and let next season suck too. If Hertl wants to stay that's fine but deal if possible. No sense buying out if you're rebuilding and not a cap team. But hey if there are deals to take cap space for futures to that degree then buy out.

Precisely what I said for months during the discussions about buying out Vlasic. That said, think buying out Jones is still a fine option since the cap hit in the future is minimal and there will be a need for Korenar and Melnichuk to be eating up the AHL starts. Better to just dump the contract spot as well since without Jones there will likely be 45 contracts in the organization (43 if Robbins and Ozzy are sent back to juniors) plus any additional UFAs or trades they make. Never want to be right up against the 50 limit or close to it if possible.

 

[tiburon12]

It’s hard to say whom we’d be able to trade with because of the determining factors surrounding a trade (I.e. the players trade list, who is in the market, DW willingness to retain etc.). We’re only fans so we’re not having those convos.

However, Let’s take Hertl for example. Say Colorado comes up just short of the cup and they peg a bonafide 2C as the missing piece to go for it all. Hertl, is the perfect piece with a very attractive cap hit. I could see them going for it and trading Byram + a 1st before they actually have to pay Mackinnon the monster contract he’s due. Sometimes GMs get desperate and will pay that price.

Yea, i get that it's hard to estimate potential trade returns are partners, but i think it's a good exercise to try and make assumptions. Otherwise we just have these empty and nebulous "trade Burns for futures" without any realistic thought process.

I think it's really easy to call for a rebuild, but when you actually think and plan out what could potentially happen, it's not that realistic.

 

[thrillermiller89]

Wilson has publicly stated that he plans to compete.

That sounds like the core is running it back so I don’t expect any deals involving that group.

So what does a realistic retool look like???

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Precisely what I said for months during the discussions about buying out Vlasic. That said, think buying out Jones is still a fine option since the cap hit in the future is minimal and there will be a need for Korenar and Melnichuk to be eating up the AHL starts. Better to just dump the contract spot as well since without Jones there will likely be 45 contracts in the organization (43 if Robbins and Ozzy are sent back to juniors) plus any additional UFAs or trades they make. Never want to be right up against the 50 limit or close to it if possible.

I'd still bury Jones if the cap space isn't going to be used. I get that it's cheaper but it's pointless unless you need that extra two mil or so.

 

[Jargon]

Wilson has publicly stated that he plans to compete.

That sounds like the core is running it back so I don’t expect any deals involving that group.

So what does a realistic retool look like???

Well, we know they’re looking for a 3rd line center and a goalie… I also am fairly positive that unless he’s getting like Eichel, he’s not trading his 1st next year. If they get their goalie, the question is, does Jones get bought out or is the world’s most expensive and terrible backup?

I imagine it’s going to be a trade/FA signing for a 3rd line center, some bargain bin hunting for players out of favor but talented (Kuznetsov) and keeping an eye open for giant, Joe Thornton-sized trades.

It’s hard to say what he’ll actually pull off…

 

[Friday]

Go Nucks lets get that 7 spot haha

 

[tealzamboni]

Well, we know they’re looking for a 3rd line center and a goalie… I also am fairly positive that unless he’s getting like Eichel, he’s not trading his 1st next year. If they get their goalie, the question is, does Jones get bought out or is the world’s most expensive and terrible backup?

I imagine it’s going to be a trade/FA signing for a 3rd line center, some bargain bin hunting for players out of favor but talented (Kuznetsov) and keeping an eye open for giant, Joe Thornton-sized trades.

It’s hard to say what he’ll actually pull off…

And Wilson's POV is probably that he has good tweener winger, bottom six, and defensive depth. He's just got to upgrade in net and get enough pieces to roll three potentially productive lines.

 

[Jargon]

And Wilson's POV is probably that he has good tweener winger, bottom six, and defensive depth. He's just got to upgrade in net and get enough pieces to roll three potentially productive lines.

I agree, I imagine he figures the D is more or less set, maybe get a 7th veteran D to step in. I’m sure he’ll try to grab a scoring winger to make the kids compete and try and roll 4 pretty good lines.

Something like:

Kane - Hertl - Barabanov
Meier - Couture - Labanc/scoring winger
Balcers - 3C - Labanc/Leonard/Scoring winger
Nieto - Gambrell/True - Gregor

I mean, it’s not horrible, particularly if the 2nd line can get chemistry and Barabanov and Balcers keep playing well. Not a Stanley Cup team but a potentially fun team.