High pick guarantees nothing. I feel like people who wish for that type of thing don't have experience rooting for a team going thru multiple seasons of suck. I much rather watch a team that battles and wins some games even if they go out in the first round.
Sharks can beat out Dallas and we'll have to see just how good those other teams really are after their offseasons. St Louis lost their captain. That's not nothing. Vegas is still trying to move out salary. If it's Pacioretty that's a lot of goals on the way out. Hopefully we get to find out who's right but I'm not writing this Sharks roster off as long as they aren't beset by injuries like last season.
The thing is injuries will happen. Not as bad as last year hopefully but they will. If Kane, couture, hertl, meier, miss significant time we are in a lot of trouble. We just don't have the pieces to step up.
As far as Dallas goes, I do think they significantly overperformed their talent level. That being said their floor is still a competitive playoff team. I dont think they miss the postseason.
As for us: I can get behind the idea we have a higher ceiling if things go right. But a lot has to roll our way.
1) Last years improvement in goaltending wanst a fluke once Boughner took over.
2) We stay mostly healthy this season. Given Karlsson and hertls history that's at least a real concern. Even Kane and Couture concern me.
3) Hertl comes back as the same player he was? I love him but those knees have been through the hell and I do not want a long extension with him once his contract is up. It's fair to wonder if he will start breaking down even more now.
4) Last year was just a down year for everyone. If it was instead just age starting to come into play for Burns, Couture and Vlassic, then that's it for us. Outside of Vlassic I'm actually fairly optimistic on this one, but it is a real concern.
5) Karlsson plays up to that contract. If he doesn't go from pretty good to amazing this will be a problem. I am extremely pessimistic on this last one.
I just don't see us hitting on all of these. Too much has to go right and for at least the next year or two we are trending downwards as an organization.