2020-2021 season. When, how, etc

[Quid Pro Clowe]

This isn't my model - this is a general aggregation of every single respectable analyst's calculations in addition to some work I've done. I haven't seen a single legitimate projection that has the Sharks ahead of the Coyotes or the Wild next season.

Regarding the goalies, Minnesota just finished 13 points ahead of us (in one fewer game), and we just acquired the biggest reason that gap was only 13 points.



Yes, this is true. Even if the probability is low, it's still well above 0.

On the flip side, we must acknowledge that if this team doesn't even finish 4th place in this pathetic division, they're legitimately terrible.

I'll certainly concede at that point.

 

[themelkman]

This isn't my model - this is a general aggregation of every single respectable analyst's calculations in addition to some work I've done. I haven't seen a single legitimate projection that has the Sharks ahead of the Coyotes or the Wild next season.

Regarding the goalies, Minnesota just finished 13 points ahead of us (in one fewer game), and we just acquired the biggest reason that gap was only 13 points.



Yes, this is true. Even if the probability is low, it's still well above 0.

On the flip side, we must acknowledge that if this team doesn't even finish 4th place in this pathetic division, they're legitimately terrible.

I didnt mean to offend or anything but I do see a lot of those models put more stock into goaltending than I would. Out of all of the parts of the game its one of the most random things, and I wouldnt be shocked to see our goaltending situation go either way.

 

[hohosaregood]

Did the models before the 2019-2020 season project us to be bottom of the barrel?

I'm not disputing we're terrible, because we are. No top end players(that you can count on), no depth, no prospects, etc. I just don't remember what people expected from us last year.

 

[LadyStanley]

ooh

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

I didnt mean to offend or anything but I do see a lot of those models put more stock into goaltending than I would. Out of all of the parts of the game its one of the most random things, and I wouldnt be shocked to see our goaltending situation go either way.

Did the models before the 2019-2020 season project us to be bottom of the barrel?

I'm not disputing we're terrible, because we are. No top end players(that you can count on), no depth, no prospects, etc. I just don't remember what people expected from us last year.

I would bet almost any amount of money the Sharks are significantly better than Minn and Az... Neither team is going to be as motivated and neither team has the talent level. All this talk to throw Dubnyk under the bus is just insane. People have tragedies and it affects every part of your life. Coming out the other side of something like that makes you more resilient if anything in most cases. Sharks will have league average or better goaltending, I'm calling it now. Sure I may be wrong but I put the chances I'm right at 80 to 90%. The only thing (s) that derail this team from the playoffs is multiple injuries again or severe chemistry issues where the locker room just hates each other. I would put the locker room issues as a bigger concern than injuries. I was never for Couture as captain and Meiers comments give me the sense that it hasn't worked out so far. I guess we'll see soon how that part goes. Sometimes teams with inner turmoil do well too so ya never know...

 

[seroes]

ooh

I'm going to choose not to take this as a sign of things to come and instead us getting the bad out of the way first.

 

[Mattb124]

I'm going to choose not to take this as a sign of things to come and instead us getting the bad out of the way first.

#schoolimmunity

 

[LadyStanley]

DW preview

 

[tiburon12]

This isn't my model - this is a general aggregation of every single respectable analyst's calculations in addition to some work I've done. I haven't seen a single legitimate projection that has the Sharks ahead of the Coyotes or the Wild next season.

Regarding the goalies, Minnesota just finished 13 points ahead of us (in one fewer game), and we just acquired the biggest reason that gap was only 13 points.

Curious about Arizona here. Logically, I can't get my head around the fact that models would predict them to finish higher than the Sharks. In which way do their numbers exceed ours aside from goaltending?

For example, xGA last season was almost identical despite Arizona having fewer scoring chances against and high danger shots against. They also lost a massive play driver in hall and didn't replace him. I'm struggling to understand how a team that plans to address their big issues (Sharks) is going to be worse than a team who failed to (Arizona and goal scoring). Can kuemper be superman for 56 games while his team gets caved in?

They also have 5 of their 7 D as pending UFAs. If this team is not a surefire playoff team, which is highly unlikely given our division has Vegas Colorado and st Louis, they are likely to sell those pieces because they don't have a 1st or 3rd this year.

Just curious how models take those into account? I don't have access to those models you reference, that's why I'm asking. And further to that, how did those models predict sjs and ari would do last year, were they accurate? If not, what changed? And if they predict ari finishes higher this year and they don't, what does that say about predictive models like this?

 

[Sysreq]

The worst thing would be for us to finish 15-16OA, squeak out a 1st round exit, and come into next year no better off than we are now.

Mediocrity is worse than bitting the bullet.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Curious about Arizona here. Logically, I can't get my head around the fact that models would predict them to finish higher than the Sharks. In which way do their numbers exceed ours aside from goaltending?

For example, xGA last season was almost identical despite Arizona having fewer scoring chances against and high danger shots against. They also lost a massive play driver in hall and didn't replace him. I'm struggling to understand how a team that plans to address their big issues (Sharks) is going to be worse than a team who failed to (Arizona and goal scoring). Can kuemper be superman for 56 games while his team gets caved in?

They also have 5 of their 7 D as pending UFAs. If this team is not a surefire playoff team, which is highly unlikely given our division has Vegas Colorado and st Louis, they are likely to sell those pieces because they don't have a 1st or 3rd this year.

Just curious how models take those into account? I don't have access to those models you reference, that's why I'm asking. And further to that, how did those models predict sjs and ari would do last year, were they accurate? If not, what changed? And if they predict ari finishes higher this year and they don't, what does that say about predictive models like this?

Can't speak for anybody else's stuff but I don't have them far apart (58.55 P for AZ and 56.24 P for SJ) and here's the amount of value I project each player to add in the 56 game shortened season:

Spoiler

Player	Position	Team	Projected Points Added
TIMO.MEIER	F	S.J	2.59
TOMAS.HERTL	F	S.J	2.38
CONOR.GARLAND	F	ARI	2.16
DARCY.KUEMPER	G	ARI	2.09
EVANDER.KANE	F	S.J	2.02
CHRISTIAN.DVORAK	F	ARI	1.99
ANTTI.RAANTA	G	ARI	1.92
KEVIN.LABANC	F	S.J	1.84
LOGAN.COUTURE	F	S.J	1.59
JAKOB.CHYCHRUN	D	ARI	1.35
ILYA.LYUBUSHKIN	D	ARI	1.09
JOHAN.LARSSON	F	ARI	1.04
PHIL.KESSEL	F	ARI	0.94
ERIK.KARLSSON	D	S.J	0.94
TYLER.PITLICK	F	ARI	0.74
JOEL.KELLMAN	F	S.J	0.68
MARTIN.JONES	G	S.J	0.67
MARCUS.SORENSEN	F	S.J	0.64
CHRISTIAN.FISCHER	F	ARI	0.62
BRENT.BURNS	D	S.J	0.58
NIKLAS.HJALMARSSON	D	ARI	0.56
MATT.NIETO	F	S.J	0.50
JASON.DEMERS	D	ARI	0.49
MICHAEL.GRABNER	F	ARI	0.41
DEREK.STEPAN	F	ARI	0.39
AARON.NESS	D	ARI	0.38
NICK.SCHMALTZ	F	ARI	0.34
BARRETT.HAYTON	F	ARI	0.30
NOAH.GREGOR	F	S.J	0.24
MARIO.FERRARO	D	S.J	0.17
PATRICK.MARLEAU	F	S.J	0.16
JORDAN.OESTERLE	D	ARI	0.14
DYLAN.GAMBRELL	F	S.J	0.12
RADIM.SIMEK	D	S.J	0.11
ALEX.GOLIGOSKI	D	ARI	0.11
LAWSON.CROUSE	F	ARI	0.07
CLAYTON.KELLER	F	ARI	-0.20
OLIVER.EKMAN.LARSSON	D	ARI	-0.23
MARC.EDOUARD.VLASIC	D	S.J	-0.27
DEVAN.DUBNYK	G	S.J	-0.57

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

With a baseline of 41.86 points being what you'd expect out of a replacement level player.

It's true that Arizona is ahead of us if you take out goalies and it's true that goalies are very volatile, but these are also very cautious projections for each goalie pairings. You're comparing what may be the NHL's best goalie duo to what may be the NHL's worst. Goaltending has been a major problem for this team for two years and we just made a downgrade based on results over the past two seasons; I think it's wishful thinking to assume the goaltending from each of these teams will be close.

What I did here was fairly rudimentary compared to some of the other modelers but I'd imagine the values aren't too different. These teams are both a whole bunch of meh.

 

[Levie]

ooh

Watch it be Karlsson and we find out some crazy long term side effects of covid.

 

[tiburon12]

Can't speak for anybody else's stuff but I don't have them far apart (58.55 P for AZ and 56.24 P for SJ) and here's the amount of value I project each player to add in the 56 game shortened season:

Spoiler

Player	Position	Team	Projected Points Added
TIMO.MEIER	F	S.J	2.59
TOMAS.HERTL	F	S.J	2.38
CONOR.GARLAND	F	ARI	2.16
DARCY.KUEMPER	G	ARI	2.09
EVANDER.KANE	F	S.J	2.02
CHRISTIAN.DVORAK	F	ARI	1.99
ANTTI.RAANTA	G	ARI	1.92
KEVIN.LABANC	F	S.J	1.84
LOGAN.COUTURE	F	S.J	1.59
JAKOB.CHYCHRUN	D	ARI	1.35
ILYA.LYUBUSHKIN	D	ARI	1.09
JOHAN.LARSSON	F	ARI	1.04
PHIL.KESSEL	F	ARI	0.94
ERIK.KARLSSON	D	S.J	0.94
TYLER.PITLICK	F	ARI	0.74
JOEL.KELLMAN	F	S.J	0.68
MARTIN.JONES	G	S.J	0.67
MARCUS.SORENSEN	F	S.J	0.64
CHRISTIAN.FISCHER	F	ARI	0.62
BRENT.BURNS	D	S.J	0.58
NIKLAS.HJALMARSSON	D	ARI	0.56
MATT.NIETO	F	S.J	0.50
JASON.DEMERS	D	ARI	0.49
MICHAEL.GRABNER	F	ARI	0.41
DEREK.STEPAN	F	ARI	0.39
AARON.NESS	D	ARI	0.38
NICK.SCHMALTZ	F	ARI	0.34
BARRETT.HAYTON	F	ARI	0.30
NOAH.GREGOR	F	S.J	0.24
MARIO.FERRARO	D	S.J	0.17
PATRICK.MARLEAU	F	S.J	0.16
JORDAN.OESTERLE	D	ARI	0.14
DYLAN.GAMBRELL	F	S.J	0.12
RADIM.SIMEK	D	S.J	0.11
ALEX.GOLIGOSKI	D	ARI	0.11
LAWSON.CROUSE	F	ARI	0.07
CLAYTON.KELLER	F	ARI	-0.20
OLIVER.EKMAN.LARSSON	D	ARI	-0.23
MARC.EDOUARD.VLASIC	D	S.J	-0.27
DEVAN.DUBNYK	G	S.J	-0.57

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

With a baseline of 41.86 points being what you'd expect out of a replacement level player.

It's true that Arizona is ahead of us if you take out goalies and it's true that goalies are very volatile, but these are also very cautious projections for each goalie pairings. You're comparing what may be the NHL's best goalie duo to what may be the NHL's worst. Goaltending has been a major problem for this team for two years and we just made a downgrade based on results over the past two seasons; I think it's wishful thinking to assume the goaltending from each of these teams will be close.

What I did here was fairly rudimentary compared to some of the other modelers but I'd imagine the values aren't too different. These teams are both a whole bunch of meh.

Cool, thanks dude.

I don't think goaltending is close when comparing guys raw abilities, like not at all.

But, I do have a hard time believing the sharks will be worse at puck possession and at offense zone time - especially if Arizona starts selling off pieces - two things that mightily help out a goalie.

By your list, seems like the sharks have better Skaters whereas the yotes have better goalies. In a sprint of a season, can those goalies maintain a strong impact? Arizona got caved in during the playoffs and only got worse.

Interesting to think about, and when I evaluate the situations I have much more confidence in the sharks finishing ahead of them than I do Minnesota

 

[DG93]

I would bet almost any amount of money the Sharks are significantly better than Minn and Az... Neither team is going to be as motivated and neither team has the talent level. All this talk to throw Dubnyk under the bus is just insane. People have tragedies and it affects every part of your life. Coming out the other side of something like that makes you more resilient if anything in most cases. Sharks will have league average or better goaltending, I'm calling it now. Sure I may be wrong but I put the chances I'm right at 80 to 90%. The only thing (s) that derail this team from the playoffs is multiple injuries again or severe chemistry issues where the locker room just hates each other. I would put the locker room issues as a bigger concern than injuries. I was never for Couture as captain and Meiers comments give me the sense that it hasn't worked out so far. I guess we'll see soon how that part goes. Sometimes teams with inner turmoil do well too so ya never know...

While I agree overall that the Sharks have more talent, I disagree about the Dubnyk part. Yes, it's very possible that his wife's illness impacted his performance this season significantly. If he had only struggled this year, that would make sense. He hasn't been good in several years, especially when you adjust for how good the Minnesota defense has been...I'd be pleasantly surprised if he bounced back this year, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[FunkyPhin]

The worst thing would be for us to finish 15-16OA, squeak out a 1st round exit, and come into next year no better off than we are now.

Mediocrity is worse than bitting the bullet.

I fully expect a 4th place division finish and a quick first round exit,

With how short this season is, I hope they implode again and get a high first round pick, least it'll be quick this time.

 

[Sharksrule04]

I fully expect a 4th place division finish and a quick first round exit,

With how short this season is, I hope they implode again and get a high first round pick, least it'll be quick this time.

Absolutely! I can’t actually root against us each game but if there was ever a season I want and think the Sharks should tank, this is it. No fans at games, shortened season, expansion draft coming, and lacking depth. Just tank, hopefully get a top 3 pick and draft a game changer. Maybe sell a few guys at the deadline and accumulate picks. This is the year you subtle tank. If all went well it could be a fairly quick turnaround with the strong draft we just had and a good draft in 2021.

 

[CupfortheSharks]

I fully expect a 4th place division finish and a quick first round exit,

With how short this season is, I hope they implode again and get a high first round pick, least it'll be quick this time.

...and we will actually get to make the pick.

 

[LadyStanley]

...we find out some crazy long term side effects of covid.

Already have some covid19 recovered folks with weird long term issues.

Also scary is new strain in UK, Netherlands.



Melchinik IGd from NYC. Chemelski IGd from Scottsdale. Hertl from Marin.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Absolutely! I can’t actually root against us each game but if there was ever a season I want and think the Sharks should tank, this is it. No fans at games, shortened season, expansion draft coming, and lacking depth. Just tank, hopefully get a top 3 pick and draft a game changer. Maybe sell a few guys at the deadline and accumulate picks. This is the year you subtle tank. If all went well it could be a fairly quick turnaround with the strong draft we just had and a good draft in 2021.

As much as I don't think the players will accept that on a game to game basis, I do agree. If ever there was a season to throw it in the trash and go for a high pick it's this one. Mainly because the turn around is so quick to the 21-22 season. Also, if they turn to trash I bet you get Vlasic and maybe Burns to agree to trades. Ship Jones to Seattle with a 3rd round pick or a decent prospect or 2 (or whatever the worth is) and now the Sharks have some cap room to make significant changes in that shortened off season to reload.

 

[one2gamble]

The worst thing would be for us to finish 15-16OA, squeak out a 1st round exit, and come into next year no better off than we are now.

Mediocrity is worse than bitting the bullet.

I dont see this happening. Without fans in the stands for the playoffs the push to make it wont be as high. I believe that if the sharks are on the bubble they will try to sell unless something crazy is on teh market.

 

[LadyStanley]

Let’s Make A Deal : The NHL And (Our Interview Guest) Anthony Duclair | Podcasts - Sportsnet.ca

Friedman speculates that the Sharks might make Kansas City their home rink for the season. (But does not seem to be based on any statements)

 

[one2gamble]

Jan 14th

 

[Makoshark]

Absolutely! I can’t actually root against us each game but if there was ever a season I want and think the Sharks should tank, this is it. No fans at games, shortened season, expansion draft coming, and lacking depth. Just tank, hopefully get a top 3 pick and draft a game changer. Maybe sell a few guys at the deadline and accumulate picks. This is the year you subtle tank. If all went well it could be a fairly quick turnaround with the strong draft we just had and a good draft in 2021.

If we tank, or stack picks, we need to get them for the 2022 draft because it will be an insanely deep first couple rounds... I think that will be our next franchise defining draft and shot at truly elite franchise players.

 

[Erep]

Jan 14th

Glad we are not opening the season like last year again...

If we tank, or stack picks, we need to get them for the 2022 draft because it will be an insanely deep first couple rounds... I think that will be our next franchise defining draft and shot at truly elite franchise players.

Yeah, having watched some Michigan games to see Bordeleau, if Power is truly the best player in the draft (or even close), I doubt a top 5 pick amounts to much this year...

 

[Sharksrule04]

Glad we are not opening the season like last year again...



Yeah, having watched some Michigan games to see Bordeleau, if Power is truly the best player in the draft (or even close), I doubt a top 5 pick amounts to much this year...

just because they aren’t generational talents, doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be helpful to get a top 5 pick. I would be very happy for the Sharks to get Power or any of the Michigan draft eligible freshmen. Luke Hughes as well.