Boston Bruins 2020-2021 Roster Discussion IV - STAY ON TOPIC
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Don Cherry
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Fenian24
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I have no idea if you're saying thats not enough or too much, care to elaborate?5 million for a 50 point guy?
Chevalier du Clavier
Écrivain de ferrage
- Jul 20, 2005
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The Athletic
Why the Bruins should offer sheet Mikhail Sergachev
... [Mikhail] Sergachev is a helluva player and just 22 years old. Everything about him screams “future number one defenceman” from his play-driving prowess at both ends of the ice to his ability to move the puck up ice in transition to his offensive production. There are a lot of indicators that he’s the real deal with the only issue being he hasn’t been tasked to do it very far up the lineup in Tampa Bay. By value added, he’s already there, albeit in a sheltered role.
In most cases a sheltered player is a red flag and Sergachev is in the bottom fifth for defenseman usage. It denotes a lack of trust from the coaching staff, but on a team that has Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh it’s likely more of an opportunity problem than a trust problem. Head coach Jon Cooper doesn’t need to trust Sergachev to play tough minutes when he already has the horses to do so, but that doesn’t mean Sergachev couldn’t succeed with more responsibility. Over the past two seasons he has a 55 percent expected goals rate and a 58 percent actual goals rate at five-on-five and while it’s unlikely he puts up those exact numbers higher in the lineup, there’s enough leeway to figure they’ll translate well enough that he can handle the role.
The biggest key to that is Sergachev’s ability with the puck. Anecdotally, the defenders who have proven they could handle bigger roles in the past were the ones with strong puck skills that can safely move it out of trouble with control. Based on tracking data from Corey Sznajder over the past two seasons, Sergachev looks elite in that regard in terms of both exiting the defensive zone and entering the offensive zone. There aren’t many defenders in the league with his profile — not even the departed Krug who was a strong puck-mover playing similarly sheltered minutes.
It remains to be seen whether Sergachev can pass the ultimate test and play on a top pairing against the opposition’s best on a nightly basis, but the potential is there at 22. That’s the key in the acquisition as Sergachev can not only be an adequate Krug replacement, but there’s a ceiling he hasn’t reached yet where he might be even more. In terms of replacing Krug, the big question will be whether Sergachev can replicate Krug’s impact on the top power play. It’s a tall order, but he has the talent to do so and did decently enough whenever he played with Tampa Bay’s top unit.
Sergachev is a player worth targeting, but for how much? When it comes to offer sheets there are two considerations: the annual average and the draft pick compensation attached to the annual average. For a player of Sergachev’s calibre, we’re looking at the following two tiers.
$4.36M – $6.54M: First- and third-round pick
$6.54M – $8.73M: First-, second- and third-round pick
Generally, there’s a fear in the draft picks going the other way, but with the Bruins being a contender that’s hardly a concern. For a contending team, the draft pick haul for the first tier is about 3.7 wins over their first seven seasons and 4.9 wins for the second tier on average. Sergachev is expected to deliver that value over the next three seasons. There’s a chance the draft picks turn into more, but it’s a low chance. It’s a non issue and for a team whose window might be closing soon anyways, the time to go all-in is now anyways. Boston shouldn’t be that worried about losing picks.
So the next question is how much and for how long. It’s a balancing act between what Boston can afford, what it does to their current internal cap structure (Charlie McAvoy’s deal is up in two years), and how high the Bruins need to go before Tampa Bay has to say no.
Typically, a player of Sergachev’s ilk would sign for around $6 million as an RFA. That’s according to his on-ice value and tracks with Evolving Hockey’s projections — though they’re slightly lower for everything below an eight-year deal. The Bruins could sign him to a $6.54 million deal, save a second-round pick, have just over $150,000 worth of cap space left and put the Lightning $3.6 million above the salary cap with Anthony Cirelli and Erik Cernak still left to sign. It’s a reasonable deal that puts the Lightning in a very challenging spot, especially if the Bruins don’t offer much in the way of term (a three-year term effectively makes the contract a $6.5 million bridge which would be tough to swallow since his bridge price should be closer to $4 million) and/or add a steep salary in the final year to up the qualifying offer.
... The one issue from the Bruins’ perspective that arises from this is that the team still hasn’t signed their own RFA, Jake DeBrusk. A Sergachev signing wouldn’t leave much of anything for DeBrusk, a productive top-six winger, but in terms of balance and depth, a player like Sergachev is arguably much more necessary than DeBrusk. Considering the team’s forward depth, DeBrusk can be expended and the team has sort of treated him as such this past offseason, with his name being floated in rumour mills. That can potentially recoup some draft capital lost in a Sergachev offer sheet. DeBrusk is a good player and there’s other ways to fit him (Miller on LTIR, buried money, trading someone), but there are also players on the come-up like Jack Studnicka and Anders Bjork that can step in without losing much. I like DeBrusk and would find a way to fit him, but I like Sergachev a lot more, especially on this team. ...
Why the Bruins should offer sheet Mikhail Sergachev
... [Mikhail] Sergachev is a helluva player and just 22 years old. Everything about him screams “future number one defenceman” from his play-driving prowess at both ends of the ice to his ability to move the puck up ice in transition to his offensive production. There are a lot of indicators that he’s the real deal with the only issue being he hasn’t been tasked to do it very far up the lineup in Tampa Bay. By value added, he’s already there, albeit in a sheltered role.
In most cases a sheltered player is a red flag and Sergachev is in the bottom fifth for defenseman usage. It denotes a lack of trust from the coaching staff, but on a team that has Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh it’s likely more of an opportunity problem than a trust problem. Head coach Jon Cooper doesn’t need to trust Sergachev to play tough minutes when he already has the horses to do so, but that doesn’t mean Sergachev couldn’t succeed with more responsibility. Over the past two seasons he has a 55 percent expected goals rate and a 58 percent actual goals rate at five-on-five and while it’s unlikely he puts up those exact numbers higher in the lineup, there’s enough leeway to figure they’ll translate well enough that he can handle the role.
The biggest key to that is Sergachev’s ability with the puck. Anecdotally, the defenders who have proven they could handle bigger roles in the past were the ones with strong puck skills that can safely move it out of trouble with control. Based on tracking data from Corey Sznajder over the past two seasons, Sergachev looks elite in that regard in terms of both exiting the defensive zone and entering the offensive zone. There aren’t many defenders in the league with his profile — not even the departed Krug who was a strong puck-mover playing similarly sheltered minutes.
It remains to be seen whether Sergachev can pass the ultimate test and play on a top pairing against the opposition’s best on a nightly basis, but the potential is there at 22. That’s the key in the acquisition as Sergachev can not only be an adequate Krug replacement, but there’s a ceiling he hasn’t reached yet where he might be even more. In terms of replacing Krug, the big question will be whether Sergachev can replicate Krug’s impact on the top power play. It’s a tall order, but he has the talent to do so and did decently enough whenever he played with Tampa Bay’s top unit.
Sergachev is a player worth targeting, but for how much? When it comes to offer sheets there are two considerations: the annual average and the draft pick compensation attached to the annual average. For a player of Sergachev’s calibre, we’re looking at the following two tiers.
$4.36M – $6.54M: First- and third-round pick
$6.54M – $8.73M: First-, second- and third-round pick
Generally, there’s a fear in the draft picks going the other way, but with the Bruins being a contender that’s hardly a concern. For a contending team, the draft pick haul for the first tier is about 3.7 wins over their first seven seasons and 4.9 wins for the second tier on average. Sergachev is expected to deliver that value over the next three seasons. There’s a chance the draft picks turn into more, but it’s a low chance. It’s a non issue and for a team whose window might be closing soon anyways, the time to go all-in is now anyways. Boston shouldn’t be that worried about losing picks.
So the next question is how much and for how long. It’s a balancing act between what Boston can afford, what it does to their current internal cap structure (Charlie McAvoy’s deal is up in two years), and how high the Bruins need to go before Tampa Bay has to say no.
Typically, a player of Sergachev’s ilk would sign for around $6 million as an RFA. That’s according to his on-ice value and tracks with Evolving Hockey’s projections — though they’re slightly lower for everything below an eight-year deal. The Bruins could sign him to a $6.54 million deal, save a second-round pick, have just over $150,000 worth of cap space left and put the Lightning $3.6 million above the salary cap with Anthony Cirelli and Erik Cernak still left to sign. It’s a reasonable deal that puts the Lightning in a very challenging spot, especially if the Bruins don’t offer much in the way of term (a three-year term effectively makes the contract a $6.5 million bridge which would be tough to swallow since his bridge price should be closer to $4 million) and/or add a steep salary in the final year to up the qualifying offer.
... The one issue from the Bruins’ perspective that arises from this is that the team still hasn’t signed their own RFA, Jake DeBrusk. A Sergachev signing wouldn’t leave much of anything for DeBrusk, a productive top-six winger, but in terms of balance and depth, a player like Sergachev is arguably much more necessary than DeBrusk. Considering the team’s forward depth, DeBrusk can be expended and the team has sort of treated him as such this past offseason, with his name being floated in rumour mills. That can potentially recoup some draft capital lost in a Sergachev offer sheet. DeBrusk is a good player and there’s other ways to fit him (Miller on LTIR, buried money, trading someone), but there are also players on the come-up like Jack Studnicka and Anders Bjork that can step in without losing much. I like DeBrusk and would find a way to fit him, but I like Sergachev a lot more, especially on this team. ...
TobanWest
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- Jan 28, 2020
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Chevalier du Clavier
Écrivain de ferrage
- Jul 20, 2005
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Dennis Bonvie
Registered User
The Athletic
Why the Bruins should offer sheet Mikhail Sergachev
... [Mikhail] Sergachev is a helluva player and just 22 years old. Everything about him screams “future number one defenceman” from his play-driving prowess at both ends of the ice to his ability to move the puck up ice in transition to his offensive production. There are a lot of indicators that he’s the real deal with the only issue being he hasn’t been tasked to do it very far up the lineup in Tampa Bay. By value added, he’s already there, albeit in a sheltered role.
In most cases a sheltered player is a red flag and Sergachev is in the bottom fifth for defenseman usage. It denotes a lack of trust from the coaching staff, but on a team that has Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh it’s likely more of an opportunity problem than a trust problem. Head coach Jon Cooper doesn’t need to trust Sergachev to play tough minutes when he already has the horses to do so, but that doesn’t mean Sergachev couldn’t succeed with more responsibility. Over the past two seasons he has a 55 percent expected goals rate and a 58 percent actual goals rate at five-on-five and while it’s unlikely he puts up those exact numbers higher in the lineup, there’s enough leeway to figure they’ll translate well enough that he can handle the role.
The biggest key to that is Sergachev’s ability with the puck. Anecdotally, the defenders who have proven they could handle bigger roles in the past were the ones with strong puck skills that can safely move it out of trouble with control. Based on tracking data from Corey Sznajder over the past two seasons, Sergachev looks elite in that regard in terms of both exiting the defensive zone and entering the offensive zone. There aren’t many defenders in the league with his profile — not even the departed Krug who was a strong puck-mover playing similarly sheltered minutes.
It remains to be seen whether Sergachev can pass the ultimate test and play on a top pairing against the opposition’s best on a nightly basis, but the potential is there at 22. That’s the key in the acquisition as Sergachev can not only be an adequate Krug replacement, but there’s a ceiling he hasn’t reached yet where he might be even more. In terms of replacing Krug, the big question will be whether Sergachev can replicate Krug’s impact on the top power play. It’s a tall order, but he has the talent to do so and did decently enough whenever he played with Tampa Bay’s top unit.
Sergachev is a player worth targeting, but for how much? When it comes to offer sheets there are two considerations: the annual average and the draft pick compensation attached to the annual average. For a player of Sergachev’s calibre, we’re looking at the following two tiers.
$4.36M – $6.54M: First- and third-round pick
$6.54M – $8.73M: First-, second- and third-round pick
Generally, there’s a fear in the draft picks going the other way, but with the Bruins being a contender that’s hardly a concern. For a contending team, the draft pick haul for the first tier is about 3.7 wins over their first seven seasons and 4.9 wins for the second tier on average. Sergachev is expected to deliver that value over the next three seasons. There’s a chance the draft picks turn into more, but it’s a low chance. It’s a non issue and for a team whose window might be closing soon anyways, the time to go all-in is now anyways. Boston shouldn’t be that worried about losing picks.
So the next question is how much and for how long. It’s a balancing act between what Boston can afford, what it does to their current internal cap structure (Charlie McAvoy’s deal is up in two years), and how high the Bruins need to go before Tampa Bay has to say no.
Typically, a player of Sergachev’s ilk would sign for around $6 million as an RFA. That’s according to his on-ice value and tracks with Evolving Hockey’s projections — though they’re slightly lower for everything below an eight-year deal. The Bruins could sign him to a $6.54 million deal, save a second-round pick, have just over $150,000 worth of cap space left and put the Lightning $3.6 million above the salary cap with Anthony Cirelli and Erik Cernak still left to sign. It’s a reasonable deal that puts the Lightning in a very challenging spot, especially if the Bruins don’t offer much in the way of term (a three-year term effectively makes the contract a $6.5 million bridge which would be tough to swallow since his bridge price should be closer to $4 million) and/or add a steep salary in the final year to up the qualifying offer.
... The one issue from the Bruins’ perspective that arises from this is that the team still hasn’t signed their own RFA, Jake DeBrusk. A Sergachev signing wouldn’t leave much of anything for DeBrusk, a productive top-six winger, but in terms of balance and depth, a player like Sergachev is arguably much more necessary than DeBrusk. Considering the team’s forward depth, DeBrusk can be expended and the team has sort of treated him as such this past offseason, with his name being floated in rumour mills. That can potentially recoup some draft capital lost in a Sergachev offer sheet. DeBrusk is a good player and there’s other ways to fit him (Miller on LTIR, buried money, trading someone), but there are also players on the come-up like Jack Studnicka and Anders Bjork that can step in without losing much. I like DeBrusk and would find a way to fit him, but I like Sergachev a lot more, especially on this team. ...
So the Bruns offer $6.54 mil.
Tampa matches. They need to make some moves to fit under the Cap.
And the Bruins get dick, as well as the scorn of every GM in the league.
Just wait for the offer sheets to pour in for McAvoy and Carlo and Lauzon and Fredrick.
At this point, if you can deal Bjork + Moore for peanuts, sign Hoffman and Chara, we are a much better team than 2019.
Alberta_OReilly_Fan
Bruin fan since 1975
headsup for anyone that is missing the fine print for the cap...
halak/miller have around 2 million in easy to reach bonus money between them
it might look like we have nearly 3 million cap space to continue to add players but its not really true. we wont want to end up with cap penalties carrying over next year. we have pretty much spent all of our money after getting debrusk signed today
we currently have marchand/pastrnak/and maybe miller starting the season on ltir... but bringing in someone expensive to replace any of these guys would be a disaster when these guys get activated later. so, plan on having kids take their spots to begin the season.
chara? there is money to give chara a contract similar to the one he got last year... however im not really sure where we would find the roster space for him. i personally think we could start kevan miller in providence. maybe even leave him there until after the trade deadline? play chara instead. i guess in my heart i still see chara coming back so im kind of predicting something along these lines.
the small amount of wiggle room we have would be increased by sending miller down. the capfriendly has 15 forwards counting against us and 1 will be sent down so that also increases our wiggle room.
teams always want to leave some wiggle room... so my best estimate at how much wiggle room we truely have is around a million dollars... which i think is being held for chara
halak/miller have around 2 million in easy to reach bonus money between them
it might look like we have nearly 3 million cap space to continue to add players but its not really true. we wont want to end up with cap penalties carrying over next year. we have pretty much spent all of our money after getting debrusk signed today
we currently have marchand/pastrnak/and maybe miller starting the season on ltir... but bringing in someone expensive to replace any of these guys would be a disaster when these guys get activated later. so, plan on having kids take their spots to begin the season.
chara? there is money to give chara a contract similar to the one he got last year... however im not really sure where we would find the roster space for him. i personally think we could start kevan miller in providence. maybe even leave him there until after the trade deadline? play chara instead. i guess in my heart i still see chara coming back so im kind of predicting something along these lines.
the small amount of wiggle room we have would be increased by sending miller down. the capfriendly has 15 forwards counting against us and 1 will be sent down so that also increases our wiggle room.
teams always want to leave some wiggle room... so my best estimate at how much wiggle room we truely have is around a million dollars... which i think is being held for chara
I feel like the offer sheet blowback is overblown. Maybe the lightning try and get one of our guys when the time arises (with what cap?) but I doubt other GMs give too much thought to it. It’s a business, if you don’t want them to go anywhere you don’t let them hit any form of free agency
like I doubt the flames won’t trade with you because you sent an offer sheet to the Lightning and I doubt they target you for offer sheets as a result of it too
Also, as an aside, if McAvoy isn’t locked up this deep into an offseason and a team signs him I wouldn’t give a crap- it’s on us for not hitting our prized assets number!
Dennis Bonvie
Registered User
Giving somebody a big contract AND having to surrender big draft picks kinda stops a lot of things in its tracks I’d wager.
Its not like people stopped dealing with Lowe after he got Penner.
Plus in a situation like Sergachev you’re actively hurting one your biggest rivals In the immediate, which is important because we have a very slim window remaining imo. Bruins get significantly better and the lightning lose a great defenseman that they’ll undoubtedly replace with a lesser guy
Last edited:
KurtDangle
Registered User
- Jul 22, 2019
- 69
- 118
Most likely right, would like one more addition up front like Hoffman or even Granlund, would be nice to get rid of contracts like Ritchie and Wagner and let some of the kids compete for the 4th line.
bruinmann77
Registered User
Alberta_OReilly_Fan
Bruin fan since 1975
Traditionally teams match... but then again there was never covid in the past
Few years ago chicago screwed their cap and lost ladd, byfuglin, barkin and their swiss goalie as a result.
It doesnt happen often any team screws their cap so massive and loses multiple key young people as a result but imho it is happening now again this season
Sadly even though tampa is screwed... i dont think boston is the team to take advantage
I would throw an offer at segrachev if no one else does but i fully expect tampa to match. We cant go high enough.
All in all when the dust settles tampas losing 2-3 valuable guys for pennies on the dollar. They cant keep their team together without hurt
Mantis
I am a doctah
He probably has negative value with that contract and how little cap space the league has.
roflstomper
Barzal/Connor/Konecny
Have the same feeling. Bruins might need to retain 50% and still add a 3rd pick to find a trading partner.
I'd be very interested if Sweeney could pull off the following:
Vaak +Moore + Bjork
Palmieri
Marshy-Bergy-Pasta
Kase-Krejci-Palmierei
Debrusk-Coyle-Smith
Ritchie-Kuraly-Wagner
That would be the strongest top 12 I've seen here since the 2011 stanley cup team and even then, our new 3rd line I'd wager is better than the Kelly line
Vaak +Moore + Bjork
Palmieri
Marshy-Bergy-Pasta
Kase-Krejci-Palmierei
Debrusk-Coyle-Smith
Ritchie-Kuraly-Wagner
That would be the strongest top 12 I've seen here since the 2011 stanley cup team and even then, our new 3rd line I'd wager is better than the Kelly line
Fenian24
Registered User
- Jun 14, 2010
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