Speculation: 2019 Trade Deadline

[Henkka]

Summer of 2021 is good free agent summer for goalies. Seattle expansion draft at first and then free agency:

Howard, Lundqvist, Rask, Andersen, Rinne, Dubnyk, Raanta.

Would be good timing to rebuild the position. Maybe we have some own kid panning out then, and sign an old veteran short-term from that UFA group to mentor him.

 

[Shaman464]

Summer of 2021 is good free agent summer for goalies. Seattle expansion draft at first and then free agency:

Howard, Lundqvist, Rask, Andersen, Rinne, Dubnyk, Raanta.

Would be good timing to rebuild the position. Maybe we have some own kid panning out then, and sign an old veteran short-term from that UFA group to mentor him.

I wouldn't want Howard on a team that might make the playoffs. I'd rather see them try tandeming two decent starters than to give a big name, past their prime vet, a large short term contract.

 

[Henkka]

I wouldn't want Howard on a team that might make the playoffs. I'd rather see them try tandeming two decent starters than to give a big name, past their prime vet, a large short term contract.

Fine with you.

I'd like to see a Vernon/Osgood -style of tandem.

 

[RedWingzz]

No, Kenny will bring them back because they are good players and helping this team to win.

But he could also trade them!

Trade and sign back = 100% asset management.

They are helping this team win? How? We are at minimum 3 or 4 years from even thinking about winning anything. How does resigning Nyquist for 3 years make us a better Cup contender? Or bringing Howard back, how does that make us a Cup contender? It doesn't. It actually does the opposite. Sure if we have Nyquist and Howard on the roster for the next 2 years, we are a better team with them than without them. I'll admit they are "useful" NHL players. It is completely counter-productive though based on where we are at. With them we finish what? 25th? Without them we finish lower, and get a better shot at winning the lottery, and a higher pick.

It doesn't make sense for a rebuilding team to continually sign their UFAs. It's not how a rebuild works.

 

[Shaman464]

Fine with you.

I'd like to see a Vernon/Osgood -style of tandem.

The team is better served worrying about building a defense than hoping to find a hot veteran or lucking into two hall of fame goalies. A good defense can make any decent goalie look like a top goalie. A mediocre defense, will live and die by their goalie. Look at the Habs with Price.

 

[Henkka]

The team is better served worrying about building a defense than hoping to find a hot veteran or lucking into two hall of fame goalies. A good defense can make any decent goalie look like a top goalie. A mediocre defense, will live and die by their goalie. Look at the Habs with Price.

And what would our defence look after 2021 ?

These goaltending things are not off from any Defence building.

 

[Shaman464]

And what would our defence look after 2021 ?

These goaltending things are not off from any Defence building.

Better if the 5-7 million that would go to an aging vet goalie went to a free agent, anyway.

 

[Henkka]

They are helping this team win? How? We are at minimum 3 or 4 years from even thinking about winning anything. How does resigning Nyquist for 3 years make us a better Cup contender?

It doesn't make sense for a rebuilding team to continually sign their UFAs. It's not how a rebuild works.

You seem to know only one kind of way to rebuild.

That goalteding situation is a no-brainer. If there's no kid coming in, so we could extend some veterans for 2 years, and re-look it at 2021.

Maybe there is a kid at 2021. And then we sign an experienced mentor for him. That's how Yzerman did with Vasilevskiy, he got his Bishop for him. Yzerman is gonna do everything through a GM book. Or Holland, doesn't differ who is our GM. Same plan.

Build timelines, analyze the team/position situation on becoming years and be smarter instead of whining.

 

[ShelbyZ]

IMO, Berniers price is a perfect storm of a couple different things driving it up:

-Past hype: He was taken 11OA and was looked at as the goalie of the future for 2 different clubs. Those different instances are easy to brush off for some. Obviously Quick beat him to the punch in LA, and (of course) the rebuilding Leafs would make any goalie look bad. In a way it kind of reminds of me of what I've seen/heard of Bill Ranford. Guy was pretty average to mediocre for the Oilers, but had a very clutch run in the '90 playoffs that won him a Conn Smythe and then he played excellent in the 1994 WC for Canada. Despite his not so great record outside those 2 events, it artificially gave him a boost in value and lead Boston, Washington and Tampa to give him a shot at their #1 job for the rest of the 90's despite not performing well. Even our own Ken Holland thought he was worthy as insurance for the failed attempt at a 3rd consecutive Cup in '99.

-It has to be difficult to gauge how much his salary should drop since on paper he hasn't necessarily been bad or mediocre since leaving Toronto where he was still making $4.15M a season

-In the previous three seasons, he seems to get hot just at the right time, so it's fresh on GM's minds when it comes time for his next job/contract:

Bernier seems to have two modes, inconsistently good to mediocre to not so great, or on a tear, without much in between. And he pretty consistently starts the year in good to bad to mediocre mode, then finishes the regular season on tear, before being bad in the playoffs if he plays there.

In 2015-16 before the Leafs traded Reimer to the Sharks, Bernier was 6-15-3 with a .895 SV%. After the trade: 6-6-0 with a .93

In 2016-17 he goes to the Ducks as an overpriced backup after the Leafs pick up Andersen. He starts the year a little better, but by New Years day, he's at .897. He plays better in January and February, before going on an absolute tear when Gibson goes down with an injury for the last week of February and all but one game in March.

Last season, he's at .893 by New Years eve, then goes lights out when Varlamov missed a month in January and early February. During that span he put up a 9 game win streak where he was .955. He then cooled off before dealing with various injuries of his. Eventually, Varlamov was injured again and missed the rest of the season and playoffs, where Bernier was anything but noteworthy.

And this year we've seen the same pattern. He's had some good games here and there and at New Year he's in that .89X range.

 

[Hammettf2b]

Wings want a 1st each for Nyquist and Howard. They don't expect to get that so they will try and re-sign them.
Red Wings set high asking price for Gustav Nyquist, Jimmy Howard

 

[jkutswings]

Wings want a 1st each for Nyquist and Howard. They don't expect to get that so they will try and re-sign them.
Red Wings set high asking price for Gustav Nyquist, Jimmy Howard

I choose to believe that this is just a smokescreen, and not necessarily their true intentions.

However, should this materialize, and they re-sign both players without getting anything for either at the TDL, that's a lousy move (barring a major hometown discount on the deals).

 

[CaptainZetterberg40]

It sucks, but the Wings are in the unfortunate situation where the Vets (Nyquist & Howard in focus of discussion) are making the case to be STOP-GAPS for the organization's upcoming youth. When it comes to Howard, I can understand the case of re-signing him in the offseason as there is no one to back up Bernier from our prospects (not sure who would be a cheap effective backup available). So Howard seems to be the reasonable option in re-signing him. HOWEVER, the goal of trading him by the trade deadline is (for the most part...diminished value b/c of him re-signing with us) independent of his signing back with us later on. I believe it is in the best interest of the team (an interest which the GM MUST act under) to trade Howard for whatever you can get. Even with all variables involved, I see that as a clear black and white end. You do what is BEST for the team moving forward. Nyquist on the other hand, while I can certainly see how you want to have such a player of his caliber help our top lines, there is a strong counter argument that in combination with his likely request of a decent sum of money (value can only be determined after the contract is signed and term & dollars are disclosed), if you want veteran leadership, look no further than what you ALREADY have under contract in Helm, Nielsen & Abdelkader. Let them do their job under that perspective. Let those, which you hold in very high regard earn their worth in performing that function. But one thing to keep in mind is that at some point, our kids must become veterans at some point too. They won't & SHOULDN'T always have someone there to guide them. If you want that big money contract in upcoming deals, its time to prove that you are productive and mature enough to handle and earn such money by doing so on your own. I guess such a statement is leaning more toward AA & Mantha (Larkin has proven himself most & Bertuzzi is a warrior you need to win). Vanek's speech last night somewhat shed light on the fact that its time to put up or shut up. No more talking about impacting the game, do it! Upon thinking of our kids needing to be leaders, at what point do you decide its time for them to do it on their own? Keeping Nyquist only delays such necessary evaluation of who is truly worthy of sticking around and investing in.

There are so many variables at play to get into with one post. Another angle that I didn't even touch is how Nyquist and the likes of him with No move or trade clauses can neuter value or the act of trading them in general.

One thing I want to make clear, is that having said all above, is again I believe it is in the best interest of the team long term to trade them for what you can get come the deadline. Whether you get maximum or minimum value is for another discussion, but if you are a GM operating under the best interest of the team, you trade them. Give your scouts more kicks at the can and let them DO THEIR JOB.

Until the day of the deadline comes and passes, we will all just be a bunch of grumpy guys lol.

 

[Go Wings]

Wings want a 1st each for Nyquist and Howard. They don't expect to get that so they will try and re-sign them.
Red Wings set high asking price for Gustav Nyquist, Jimmy Howard

Holland never changes I cannot wait to see him leave the organization. Detroit is at the bottom of the standings and he wants to resign all there players like wtf? If he cant get a first for Howard and Nqyuist then take 2 2nd round picks. How hard is that?

 

[Winger98]

Honestly, we should be able to pull a 1st for Nyquist. guy's a good player and putting up a big year.

 

[lilidk]

Honestly, we should be able to pull a 1st for Nyquist. guy's a good player and putting up a big year.

If we can't ,keep him

 

[Bench]

Honestly, we should be able to pull a 1st for Nyquist. guy's a good player and putting up a big year.

Lesser players have fetched that. Should definitely wait for a team to cave and pay it at the deadline.

 

[DInTheB]

I’m not trying to defend Holland here, but back in November Khan was convinced Howard would have a new deal before the end of the calendar year. Not too long after that, the first Howard trade chatter hit. This is just part of the game.

 

[jkutswings]

If we can't ,keep him

Would it really be so awful if we let another team borrow him for a few months, say for a 2nd and a 4th? I still think he's playing well enough to warrant a 1st, but even if it's a slightly lower return, he should probably be dealt, and then this summer is a separate decision to consider.

 

[RedWingzz]

If we can't ,keep him

No, if we can't take the 2nd and the B-list prospect, or whatever is offered. If Nyquist really wants to be here, and the Wings really want him back, take what you can get, then resign him. Not trading him at the deadline because you "demand" a first is terrible managing in my opinion. I'm still hopeful this is Kenny trying to up his value, and let teams know that we won't accept anything other than a first, but if you get offered a 2nd and a prospect, or a 2nd and a 3rd, you take it.

We are minimum 5 years away from even thinking about a deep playoff run, Nyquist will be 35 at that point. He is not part of the future.

 

[RedWingzz]

Lesser players have fetched that. Should definitely wait for a team to cave and pay it at the deadline.

Seems like the deadline asking prices have been dropping over the years. I remember we gave up a 2nd, Backman and Janmark for impending UFA Erik Cole in 2015. Nyquist today is a far more valuable asset than Erik Cole was then.

 

[Tatar Shots]

Seems like the deadline asking prices have been dropping over the years. I remember we gave up a 2nd, Backman and Janmark for impending UFA Erik Cole in 2015. Nyquist today is a far more valuable asset than Erik Cole was then.

We got Dallas’s 3rd round pick in that deal and Backman had already left GR for Sweden. Really we just dropped down ~20 spots from the 2nd to 3rd round and gave up Janmark.

 

[RedWingzz]

We got Dallas’s 3rd round pick in that deal and Backman had already left GR for Sweden. Really we just dropped down ~20 spots from the 2nd to 3rd round and gave up Janmark.

Oh, right, I forgot about the 3rd that we got. Turns out that pick was Saarijarvi, who could still pan out.

 

[jkutswings]

Seems like the deadline asking prices have been dropping over the years. I remember we gave up a 2nd, Backman and Janmark for impending UFA Erik Cole in 2015. Nyquist today is a far more valuable asset than Erik Cole was then.

I think it's more that prices are changing than outright dropping. Brendan Smith and Thomas Tatar were some great deals, but it will require the right timing with the right trade partner.

 

[RedWingzz]

I think it's more that prices are changing than outright dropping. Brendan Smith and Thomas Tatar were some great deals, but it will require the right timing with the right trade partner.

Yeah well Tatar still had term on his contract, which ups the value significantly. I'll admit those were both good trades by Holland, so it's nonsense for him to just say "we're re-signing Nyquist and Howard unless we get a first for each". Maybe this is just his strategy to up the value, but something tells me that Nyquist and Howard are both going to be here after the deadline. Holland has made a couple nice trades over the last couple deadlines, but that still doesn't balance out his nonsensical loyalty contracts he dishes out all the time.

"Here you go Helm! A 5 year deal for double what you are worth, and a no trade clause because you are a good human and you work hard!"

 

[jkutswings]

Yeah well Tatar still had term on his contract, which ups the value significantly. I'll admit those were both good trades by Holland, so it's nonsense for him to just say "we're re-signing Nyquist and Howard unless we get a first for each". Maybe this is just his strategy to up the value, but something tells me that Nyquist and Howard are both going to be here after the deadline. Holland has made a couple nice trades over the last couple deadlines, but that still doesn't balance out his nonsensical loyalty contracts he dishes out all the time.

"Here you go Helm! A 5 year deal for double what you are worth, and a no trade clause because you are a good human and you work hard!"

Agreed. I'm just hopeful that the Helm/Abdelkader/Nielsen deals were the conclusion to the era of denial regarding the state of the team, and reality has forever set in to embrace the rebuild in a shrewd fashion.