Recap:
San Jose added Nyquist and his 15G 49P
Winnipeg added Hayes and his 14G 42P
Nashville added Simmonds 16G 27P
Nashville added Grandlund 15G 49P
Nashville minus Fiala 10G 32P
Vegas added Stone 28G 62P
View attachment 192231
There was a great deal of negative press pointing towards Calgary not making any major moves so I thought I would put forth why this was not only the right move for this year but years to come. Above is a list sorted by goals for. As you can see other than San Jose, Calgary has a decided advantage over the conference leaders.
Team | Goal Diff | Add | Adjusted | Added Defense |
Calgary | | 0 | 49 | Negligible |
San Jose | | 15 | 49 | Small Increase |
Winnipeg | | 14 | 38 | Negligible |
Nashville | | 21 | 45 | Negligible |
Vegas | | 28 | 32 | Negligible |
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]
Above to take things a step further I take these numbers a step further to goal differential and it shows Calgary and San Jose are in a relative dead heat when you adjust in Nyquist's totals. It looks close until you have to consider all the players added to these various teams must form chemistry to be impactful before the playoffs. Yesterday on TSN they stated that the chance a player makes an impact on a Stanley Cup run of a little over 1% so all these adjusted numbers are in a perfect scenario.
From my view Calgary likely has an edge over every team that made a splash yesterday despite staying pat.
View attachment 192229
The real difference comes looking forward. First I would like to note that these stats include the top 10 contributors from each team and the goals, points, average age and then I factored in for each player on a bell curve the likelihood each player would achieve a career year after this current year and created an average for the team(Chance Increase).
Conclusions that can be drawn from the chart above. Calgary has by far the largest opportunity moving forward with a 72 percent chance that the top 10 on the Flames will put up better numbers. San Jose is at a very precarious point in that 4 out of the 10 players, without Nyquist are UFA's next season and the lowest chance for an increase in production. Realistically speaking Calgary increased its odds of winning the Pacific for the foreseeable future as San Jose and Vegas both have older cores. Now remember the assets that both Vegas and San Jose just put out. San Jose's first pick this year is in round 3 and next year round 2. The Sharks will be hard pressed to be a shell of their former selves. Vegas on the other hand will be Calgary's main competition moving forward with 17 picks in the next 2 seasons.
The closest competition in the Central has is Winnipeg but with the likely declining talent of Byfuglien, Wheeler and the 4 (Trouba, Meyers, Chiorot, and Morrow) contracts to be negotiated or replaced on the blue line it may take Winnipeg's defensive advantage away.
Though Nashville's defensive core is still elite the same old problem is presented with poor forward depth.
In all likelihood Calgary's best years are in front of them and it was wisest to stick with this very good young team and continue to let the build their chemistry and skill levels while stockpiling prospects for the future.