2019 Trade Deadline Feb 25

[crackdown44]

For me the big question is "are we tough enough"? We are a smallish team that is regularly out hit. In a play-off grind against the same team, will a larger team wear us down? We'll find out.

Double post. Delete

 

[Lunatik]

Yeah but the same argument could be made for Grandlund's improvement over Fiala

Certainly, and Stone's over whomever he forces out... etc. I just think Simmonds is the most glaring example of the negative impact.

 

[SKRusty]

Certainly, and Stone's over whomever he forces out... etc. I just think Simmonds is the most glaring example of the negative impact.

Agreed. I think Calgary is still the class of the Western Conference because of the depth team wide and with the youth in the Calgary line-up it bodes well.

Some here will argue "But what happens when we meet Tampa?"

If the Flames make it that far it will be because the youth are growing exponentially which I think Peters has the ability to facilitate. To make it through the 3 rounds prior players like Sam, Czarnik, Jankowski, Chucky, Mangiapane and Backlund will need to take their games to a new level. Then mix hopefully the James Neal the Flames paid big money to and we should match up well against Tampa reversing the fortunes of 2004.

 

[Volica]

For me the big question is "are we tough enough"? We are a smallish team that is regularly out hit. In a play-off grind against the same team, will a larger team wear us down? We'll find out.

Really my only fear as well.
This team certainly has team toughness, like, they like the scrums, they protect their goalie, etc... but man, when there's a Tommy Wilson or RR type player out there, Calgary plays scared.

I honestly thought even when they played Tampa, Tampa man handled them both on the scoreboard and physically. That's a tough go.

 

[Lunatik]

Rumour floating around that it was Zucker for Frolik + 1st but Frolik nixed the deal

Rumor from where?

 

[Saskatoon]

Recap:
San Jose added Nyquist and his 15G 49P
Winnipeg added Hayes and his 14G 42P
Nashville added Simmonds 16G 27P
Nashville added Grandlund 15G 49P
Nashville minus Fiala 10G 32P
Vegas added Stone 28G 62P

View attachment 192231

There was a great deal of negative press pointing towards Calgary not making any major moves so I thought I would put forth why this was not only the right move for this year but years to come. Above is a list sorted by goals for. As you can see other than San Jose, Calgary has a decided advantage over the conference leaders.

Team	Goal Diff	Add	Adjusted	Added Defense
Calgary	49​	0	49	Negligible
San Jose	34​	15	49	Small Increase
Winnipeg	24​	14	38	Negligible
Nashville	24​	21	45	Negligible
Vegas	4​	28	32	Negligible

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Above to take things a step further I take these numbers a step further to goal differential and it shows Calgary and San Jose are in a relative dead heat when you adjust in Nyquist's totals. It looks close until you have to consider all the players added to these various teams must form chemistry to be impactful before the playoffs. Yesterday on TSN they stated that the chance a player makes an impact on a Stanley Cup run of a little over 1% so all these adjusted numbers are in a perfect scenario.

From my view Calgary likely has an edge over every team that made a splash yesterday despite staying pat.

View attachment 192229
The real difference comes looking forward. First I would like to note that these stats include the top 10 contributors from each team and the goals, points, average age and then I factored in for each player on a bell curve the likelihood each player would achieve a career year after this current year and created an average for the team(Chance Increase).

Conclusions that can be drawn from the chart above. Calgary has by far the largest opportunity moving forward with a 72 percent chance that the top 10 on the Flames will put up better numbers. San Jose is at a very precarious point in that 4 out of the 10 players, without Nyquist are UFA's next season and the lowest chance for an increase in production. Realistically speaking Calgary increased its odds of winning the Pacific for the foreseeable future as San Jose and Vegas both have older cores. Now remember the assets that both Vegas and San Jose just put out. San Jose's first pick this year is in round 3 and next year round 2. The Sharks will be hard pressed to be a shell of their former selves. Vegas on the other hand will be Calgary's main competition moving forward with 17 picks in the next 2 seasons.

The closest competition in the Central has is Winnipeg but with the likely declining talent of Byfuglien, Wheeler and the 4 (Trouba, Meyers, Chiorot, and Morrow) contracts to be negotiated or replaced on the blue line it may take Winnipeg's defensive advantage away.

Though Nashville's defensive core is still elite the same old problem is presented with poor forward depth.

In all likelihood Calgary's best years are in front of them and it was wisest to stick with this very good young team and continue to let the build their chemistry and skill levels while stockpiling prospects for the future.

I really liked the price San Jose payed for Nyquist but it is rumored he nixed a trade to Winnipeg so imagine same would have applied to Calgary.

I like Calgary's position to be a contender for years to come but if Sharks resign Karlsson they will be good for a least a few more years and challenge Flames - but if they fail to keep Karlsson they likely will take a step back. First round picks in the 20-30 range weren't going to crack the Sharks roster in the next couple years. Vegas has a lot of draft picks so you figure they will be relevant for awhile - this year though even with Stone I would pick Sharks or Flames to beat them.

 

[Fig]

To add to this, by more or less standing pat, we aren't ****ing with the chemistry of this team.

Did the Jets get better on paper? Yes, on paper. However, someone is likely moving from center to wing to make room for Hayes. On top of Hayes they made like 4 or 5 other trades, that is alot of new blood in their dressing room.

Did the Predators get better? Yes, on paper. However, they are adding two guys to their top 6. That means two gets are going to see reduced ice-time and a bunch of guys are looking at new linemates as that trickles down the lineup.

Did the Sharks get better? A little, on paper. However, goal scoring hasn't been an issue for the Sharks. They did nothing to address their goaltending or defensive play.

Did the Golden Knights get better? Of course, on paper. However, Stone is leaving the only team he has ever known, a city he loves and long term this will be a great move for Vegas, but how long will it take for him to fit in?

Did the Flames get better? Not really. However, we don't have those additional outside factors. We are bringing in 1 lesser player into the room, a guy who knows 5 of our players from back home.

Whenever I get upset about the Flames not renting a big fish, I just think about two names. Brad Stuart and Olli Jokinen. Getting thatbig fish doesn't guarantee success.

I think it's also worth mentioning that on paper, SJS was supposed to be doing what Tampa is doing this season, but in the West after acquiring Karlsson. It took a while to get that talent going. Chemistry cannot be underrated. Now, even with their Nyquist acquisition, they aren't guaranteed in taking #1 in the Pacific. On paper, I think a few of us would have ranked us as #2 in Pacific at max, but more likely #3 and constantly at least in the wild card spot. The Western conference wild card race is unprecedented. Paying assets to stay competitive in that group via rentals is lipstick on a pig. Bolstering your roster long term to move over those wild card teams is a better move. I think Treliving and management had that mentality even though we sit #1 in the West. They are conservatively considering that this seasons performance is a blip in the same way ploffs is a blip. You can't deny the roster got better year after year from that 2014 lunch pail cardiac kids group. But overall distance traveled in the playoffs got shorter and shorter.

One team I'm extremely curious about in the next year or two, is the Ducks. Do they rebuild, retool or go for it? I think Treliving digs hella deep to pry Gibson out if Ducks decide on a rebuild.

For me the big question is "are we tough enough"? We are a smallish team that is regularly out hit. In a play-off grind against the same team, will a larger team wear us down? We'll find out.

I don't know if we have to go full on nuclear or acquire a weapons arsenal to compete via toughness. Peters was treading water reasonably well with less with the Carolina Hurricanes group. Would a guy like Ferly or Reaves be awesome in this core? Probably. But at what cost roster wise and chemistry wise?

Yeah but the same argument could be made for Grandlund's improvement over Fiala

Yeah I can agree it's a wash. But I feel like Granlund will stumble out of the gate and require about 10 games to really start gelling with the Preds group and embarrassing Fenton. Just a gut feeling.

Slightly off topic, anyone who thinks we should have been in on that to beat that price isn't understanding the fundamentals of that trade. Fenton is enamored with Fiala and was willing to pay a stupid premium on him to Nashville's benefit. I think it might be similar to how Vancouver was willing to pay a premium on Baertschi because Weisbrod that no one else was willing to pay because he knew of him from his time in Calgary and wanted him.

 

[ref19]

Rumour floating around that it was Zucker for Frolik + 1st but Frolik nixed the deal

Lol

 

[Kranix]

Whatever happened, I'm glad they didn't trade Frolik. He's been doing really good lately. I hope he isn't too insulted if he indeed had to block a deal to Minnesota.

 

[Volica]

Whatever happened, I'm glad they didn't trade Frolik. He's been doing really good lately. I hope he isn't too insulted if he indeed had to block a deal to Minnesota.

I mean, behind the scenes I'm wondering if him and his agent have still been interested in a trade.

I would have nixed a trade to Minny. Going from the top team in the West to one that's liquidation every asset they can and are looking to rebuild. In the offseason, I'm sure Brad asks for Frolik's 10 team no-trade and then moves him. But he's worth keeping for this run for sure.

 

[SKRusty]

I mean, behind the scenes I'm wondering if him and his agent have still been interested in a trade.

I would have nixed a trade to Minny. Going from the top team in the West to one that's liquidation every asset they can and are looking to rebuild. In the offseason, I'm sure Brad asks for Frolik's 10 team no-trade and then moves him. But he's worth keeping for this run for sure.

How quickly Frolik is moved out of town will depend 100% on his play in the playoffs but Frolik has to pull a Martin Gelinas if he wants to stay part of this group.

The playoffs are going to dictate many players futures here in Calgary. If we don't get through the first round much of the core will be examined which could lead to trades that make Dougie's minor.

I think in order for the existing core to be left intact Calgary has to make it to a game 7 in the second round minimum.

Stone is far more expendable at this point than Frolik IMO.

 

[Volica]

How quickly Frolik is moved out of town will depend 100% on his play in the playoffs but Frolik has to pull a Martin Gelinas if he wants to stay part of this group.

The playoffs are going to dictate many players futures here in Calgary. If we don't get through the first round much of the core will be examined which could lead to trades that make Dougie's minor.

I think in order for the existing core to be left intact Calgary has to make it to a game 7 in the second round minimum.

Stone is far more expendable at this point than Frolik IMO.

I agree, somewhat.

Depending on the first round match-up.
IF Calgary get's Vegas, and Flower decides he's going obscene on us and steals a series, I doubt there will be sweeping changes from getting beat by a goalie with more playoff experience than the majority of our roster combined. If we get top spot and get pumped by a sub 500 team; then yeah, I assume that Tre will improve the roster heavily.

I think the big difference between Stone and Frolik is one is a good soldier. Stone is low maintenance and won't bitch if he's doing some pressbox time, as he was before the blood clot.

 

[InfinityIggy]

This playoffs will determine a few futures, namely that of guys like Frolik, Brodie, Neal, Stone.

We could get swept and the core would be largely left in tact, IMO.

 

[Sparky93]

This playoffs will determine a few futures, namely that of guys like Frolik, Brodie, Neal, Stone.

We could get swept and the core would be largely left in tact, IMO.

I think Frolik’s is already decided. We’ll have to free up cap space and the Stone contract will be very challenging to move. Couple that with Frolik’s agent spouting off and it’s a no brainer. Treliving isn’t the kind of GM to make knee jerk reactions but I don’t think he ever forgets. Like it or not, Treliving is usually very patient with his UFA’s, I really can’t see Neal being moved. Stone, when it comes to freeing up cap space, he’s top of the list. Whether or not that’s possible with his contract and the season he’s had, is the only question. Brodie, to me, is the only one who’s playoff’s might impact his future. That being said, there’s no replacement for him, so that would definitely make things interesting.

 

[Volica]

This playoffs will determine a few futures, namely that of guys like Frolik, Brodie, Neal, Stone.

We could get swept and the core would be largely left in tact, IMO.

I agree.
I don't see Tre touching:
Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Backlund, Lindholm, Bennett, Janko, Hanifin, Giordano, Andersson or Hamonic.

Everyone else on the fringe and draft picks are available.

 

[Sparky93]

I agree.
I don't see Tre touching:
Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Backlund, Lindholm, Bennett, Janko, Hanifin, Giordano, Andersson or Hamonic.

Everyone else on the fringe and draft picks are available.

I wouldn’t say that Bennett and Jankowski are safe. Dube is doing really well and I think he could replace Janko, possibly as early as next year. If Bennett has a poor playoff’s, I also think he could be on the block, depending on contract demand. I mean even Backs, if Treliving sees Hayes as pure upgrade, could be a possibility.

 

[DCDM]

I agree.
I don't see Tre touching:
Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Backlund, Lindholm, Bennett, Janko, Hanifin, Giordano, Andersson or Hamonic.

Everyone else on the fringe and draft picks are available.

I honestly think that's too many players.

Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Lindholm. Those are the four main guys you're building around and everyone else, while important to the team in their own rights, should theoretically be available in the right situation if it provided a significant enough benefit moving forward.

Giordano, Hanifin, Andersson, and maybe Hamonic. Assuming we aren't talking about players in Stockton, which is why I left off Valimaki.

Goalies, realistically I can't imagine they're married to either of these two guys, although my bet is they want to see Rittich through to the end (whatever that end is). They've invested a lot of time into him.

 

[Volica]

I wouldn’t say that Bennett and Jankowski are safe. Dube is doing really well and I think he could replace Janko, possibly as early as next year. If Bennett has a poor playoff’s, I also think he could be on the block, depending on contract demand. I mean even Backs, if Treliving sees Hayes as pure upgrade, could be a possibility.

Backs would be tough to move and win a deal. He just signed his contract last year.
In terms of Bennett and Jankowski... they're cheap depth. Bennett won't be due for much of a pay increase, and we still own Jankowski's right after next season too.

The only reason you move either or of them is that a deal makes sense and it's a pure upgrade. You move neither for futures of what-if projects.

 

[Kranix]

This playoffs will determine a few futures, namely that of guys like Frolik, Brodie, Neal, Stone.

We could get swept and the core would be largely left in tact, IMO.

Unless the win the cup, the playoffs will determine what we already knew, they shouldn't have missed out on Evander Kane. Rather have Kane than Hamonic.

 

[Sparky93]

Backs would be tough to move and win a deal. He just signed his contract last year.
In terms of Bennett and Jankowski... they're cheap depth. Bennett won't be due for much of a pay increase, and we still own Jankowski's right after next season too.

The only reason you move either or of them is that a deal makes sense and it's a pure upgrade. You move neither for futures of what-if projects.

That’s basically what I’m saying. Jankowski’s on pace for 30-35 point and only costs $1.6 million, he’ll be fairly valuable. I really believe the team will want to work Dube into the mix next year, could be centre, could be wing but I think he’ll be on the team. Say for example they replace Janko with Dube, that frees up almost a million. I’m guessing that’ll be pretty close to the difference between Backlund and Hayes. Personally, I don’t think there’s a big enough difference between Backlund and Hayes to bother but it doesn’t mean everyone will see it the same way. The argument could be made that we potentially upgrade at centre, without adding salary.

 

[Sparky93]

Unless the win the cup, the playoffs will determine what we already knew, they shouldn't have missed out on Evander Kane. Rather have Kane than Hamonic.

Oh, not me. I think, right now, Hamonic is our 2nd most important defenseman. That’s way more important than a guy that would be 3rd in our LW depth chart.

 

[SKRusty]

I honestly think that's too many players.

Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Lindholm. Those are the four main guys you're building around and everyone else, while important to the team in their own rights, should theoretically be available in the right situation if it provided a significant enough benefit moving forward.

Giordano, Hanifin, Andersson, and maybe Hamonic. Assuming we aren't talking about players in Stockton, which is why I left off Valimaki.

Goalies, realistically I can't imagine they're married to either of these two guys, although my bet is they want to see Rittich through to the end (whatever that end is). They've invested a lot of time into him.

I contend there will be no safe spots if the Flames perform poorly in the first or second round especially around Gio, Brodie, Johnny and Mony. After 2 very poor rounds against the Ducks Tre and the rest of management will question their model for success.

The core IMO Johnny, Mony, Lindholm, Gio, Brodie, Chucky, and Hamonic. Others that can't perform badly Bennett, Back's, Frolik, and Smith.

By performing poorly anything less than 6 games would be considered a poor performance. After last season expectations were raised and management expects the club to compete.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Unless the win the cup, the playoffs will determine what we already knew, they shouldn't have missed out on Evander Kane. Rather have Kane than Hamonic.

We should have both but are afraid to spend assets at the deadline.

 

[SKRusty]

Unless the win the cup, the playoffs will determine what we already knew, they shouldn't have missed out on Evander Kane. Rather have Kane than Hamonic.

I don't think the Calgary dressing room is experienced enough to handle the influence of Kane's character. Buffalo and Winnipeg are good examples of what happens when you don't have the experience in the dressing room to manage his effect. Don't need to look far back here in Calgary to see how susceptible these young players are to the wrong vibe.

 

[Mobiandi]

Trading core players after the playoffs because they're not up to snuff is how you end up with trades like Eberle for Strome.

Treliving isn't that reactionary. If he moves a guy, it'll be more calculated than that. You never saw the Caps make landmark trades like that despite all those years of playoff disappointment

 

[Mobiandi]

Rumor from where?

Someone with CP that supposedly had a good source + Boomer on twitter confirming that there were more pieces to the trade.

LeBrun mentioning that the deal was off at the last second fuels this speculation