Prospect Info: 2019 NHL Entry Draft Part I

[mtnet]

Reading through this thread makes me realize many dont get the probabilities at play in the NHL draft & how it works.

Let's say you finish 4th, then the most probable sole statistical slot you draft in assumes you get bumped 2 spots to #6. The next most probable sole scenario is you only get bumped 1 spot to #5. BUT, sandwiched between those possibilities is the cumulative probability that you move UP 1, 2, or 3 slots, which is just slightly more probable than only getting bumped 1 spot.

This is a long-winded way to say, that if you finish 3, 4, 5, etc.. it is statistically probable you DO get bumped at least 1 spot.

I think most get the probability chart, I just took all the commentary as trying to remain positive about what could happen (with a little luck), since hope and positivism are really hard to come by this year.

There's just so much up in the air that the draft is kind of like our powerball right now. Unlikely to hit the jackpot, but trying to be hopeful we hit higher than the most probable outcome.

With all the uncertainty around how things will look in October, the lottery serves as a dream scenario distraction in a year when so much went horribly wrong with this team.

That said, I agree that we might very well place lower than we'd like.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Just feels like a situation where we pick 5th and take a forward we hope turns into a good 2nd line player three years from now.

Not the best consolation prize after this ****show.

Picking 5th, in the most like likely scenario, would give the Devils a very good shot at a franchise D in Bowen Byram. In the case that Byram (and likely Podkolzin) were off the board, the Devils would have their pick of four potential all-star, 1C options of Turcotte/Cozens/Zegras/Dach.

Byram would immediately become the highest-upside D in the Devils organization since the end of Niedermeyer/Stevens brilliant runs in New Jersey. Any of those four Cs would be the third highest-upside F in the Devils organization after Hall/Hischier, all very good two-way players with PPG NHL ceilings.

I'm pretty sure those are good "consolation prizes". There's really no reason to panic.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Welp a good 2nd line player 3 years from now? That sounds like a pretty good player. Especially if it's a center.

So it sounds accurate, but really not that bad.

It's not accurate. There are at least 10 Fs in this draft who I can conservatively project to be very good first-line players.

Hughes and Kakko are can't miss stars.
Podkolzin is just a shade behind them.
You want a C with all-star, first-line upside? This draft will be remembered for them: Turcotte/Cozens/Zegras/Dach/Newhook.
Wingers with fist line, high scoring upside? Krebs, Boldy, maybe Kaliyev.

And we're not even touching on the Norris-Trophy-type potential of Bowen Byram, who is certainly on the Devils radar.

So, pretty please with sugar on top, can we stop harkening the apocalypse if NJ picks 5th or 6th?

 

[StevenToddIves]

yeah. it’s a lot easier to acquire a 2C in FA or via trade than it is to acquire a true first pairing defenseman. so our hole at 2C shouldn’t factor into who we draft.

It also needs to be stated that the Devils will have an early second rounder (32-38 OA) in a draft which is especially deep at C. That means the Devils will have a very good shot at a very good #2C with that pick. I will be writing a lot more about young talents like John Beecher, Connor McMichael and Philip Tomasino as the draft draws closer.

 

[Nubmer6]

The things I've read about Kaliyev kind of scare me in a Reid Boucher 2.0 kind of way.

I'm sure it's not so bad, and I'm gun-shy because of Boucher like many are with picking a large center because of Zacha.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

The things I've read about Kaliyev kind of scare me in a Reid Boucher 2.0 kind of way.

I'm sure it's not so bad, and I'm gun-shy because of Boucher like many are with picking a large center because of Zacha.

He's significantly better than Boucher, legit NHL shot and has good hands and a big body. Better skater than Boucher, to me he's another Bellows type of player with more size.

Boucher scored 62 goals in his draft +2 season also so put that in perspective, only 28 in his draft +1 season and Kaliyev has 44 so far this year and had 31 last year.

 

[Nubmer6]

He's significantly better than Boucher, legit NHL shot and has good hands and a big body. Better skater than Boucher, to me he's another Bellows type of player with more size.

Boucher scored 62 goals in his draft +2 season also so put that in perspective, only 28 in his draft +1 season and Kaliyev has 44 so far this year and had 31 last year.

Yeah, I know. I just have a phobia.

 

[StevenToddIves]

The things I've read about Kaliyev kind of scare me in a Reid Boucher 2.0 kind of way.

I'm sure it's not so bad, and I'm gun-shy because of Boucher like many are with picking a large center because of Zacha.

Understandable fear, but it's not an accurate player comparison. Boucher was a sniper who lacked in all other aspects of a complete game. Kaliyev is the complete package who just needs to play with more consistency and compete. He needs coaching. Kaliyev's game in the offensive zone is top-5 pick-caliber outstanding. It's the rest of the ice where he needs a great deal of work.

But let's remind ourselves that Ws with 40+ goal upside do not exactly grow on trees. If the Devils find themselves with a second first round pick in the early 20s and Kaliyev is still around, he would be an amazing pick there.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

Yeah, I know. I just have a phobia.

I don't think we will be in any position to draft him unless he falls pretty far so don't worry haha he also isn't the type of player Shero has drafted high, more of a chance for Turcotte/Zegras/Krebs than Kaliyev.

 

[beekay414]

Everywhere I’ve seen has Hughes in his own tier, then Kakko and then Byram mixed with the next 7 or 8 for tier 3. You have a very legitimate argument that say our magic 8 ball shows Kakko will be a top line 30 goal, 80-90 point RW for the prime of his career. If Byram future shows him being a 1st pairing, 2 way and all situational D, shouldn’t he be in the conversation? Not just because of our situation but I find it to be harder to come across that 1st line defenseman than the point producing wing.

Exactly. If I can get an Erik Karlsson rather than a Jarome Iginla, I'm pulling the trigger. Just place far more value in a do it all defenseman than I do a RW only.

 

[beekay414]

Any concern that wingers are likely easier to project and scout than defenseman?

Not really. I'd rather gamble on the defenseman than the winger. I just don't value winger only players that much. It's like comparing drafting a project QB like Carson Wentz or drafting a RB like Saquon Barkley. One puts up fancy numbers but the other impacts the game far more.

 

[beekay414]

Kakko is a can't miss prospect? Since when? Honest question.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I don't think we will be in any position to draft him unless he falls pretty far so don't worry haha he also isn't the type of player Shero has drafted high, more of a chance for Turcotte/Zegras/Krebs than Kaliyev.

I don't see Kaliyev drafted top 10 in a class with so many high-upside Fs. He's likely to fall a bit, but not out of the first round, like other similar high-upside Fs with perceived red-flags, such as Tolvanen in 2017 and Kupari in 2018.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Kakko is a can't miss prospect? Since when? Honest question.

Kakko is as "can't-miss" as any winger drafted in years. His complete game and compete level give him a very high floor. He's probably ready to make an impact in the NHL right now. Just superstar potential here.

I'm not favoring one prospect over another one just yet. I'm just trying to emphasize the strength (especially at F) at the top of this draft class. Hughes and Kakko are just memorably humongous prospects, while Podkolzin/Byram would be good arguments for the top-5 in pretty much any draft in recent memory. That's not even mentioning the high-end upsides of Cs Turcotte/Cozens/Zegras/Dach and Ws Boldy/Krebs. Spencer Knight is widely considered the best draft-eligible G since Carey Price, and Fs Newhook/Kaliyev/Lavoie come with a bit more risk but also all-star potential.

I think if Castron/Shero pick anywhere in the top 9, they will be able to land a prospect they are absolutely enamored with.

 

[My3Sons]

The things I've read about Kaliyev kind of scare me in a Reid Boucher 2.0 kind of way.

I'm sure it's not so bad, and I'm gun-shy because of Boucher like many are with picking a large center because of Zacha.

If PZ was a second round pick the fan base would be salivating at the glimpses of great NHL play he has shown and the slow but noticeable overall improvement in his offensive game. Couple that with already top notch defending and he’s still a promising player. That high draft pick status will always follow him around unless he becomes a close to PPG player.

If a player like PZ with a higher compete level and an extra point or two of processing speed was available I’d grab him in a nanosecond. On nights when he is emotionally and mentally engaged he can do things like hold off Malkin with one arm or intimidate an opposing defender at the point while killing a penalty or beat a goalie cleanly with a one timer. That’s a pretty solid skill set and a player who could bring all that to the fore on a consistent basis would be formidable. The scouting failure with PZ was related to how much he loves hockey. I think he likes it but because he doesn’t love it he will need longer to percolate. As always just my opinion, not stating any facts.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

Not really. I'd rather gamble on the defenseman than the winger. I just don't value winger only players that much. It's like comparing drafting a project QB like Carson Wentz or drafting a RB like Saquon Barkley. One puts up fancy numbers but the other impacts the game far more.

The goalie is the most important player on the ice on a game in game out basis, but you'd be out of your mind to draft one in the top ten, whoever he might be.

That aside, the relative importance of defensemen versus wingers and that actually affecting how you draft is nowhere near the same as the difference between a QB and every other position in football. Drafting Zach Parise worked out a lot better for the Devils than if they had drafted say Dion Phaneuf, who was a real good player in his own right for a while.

 

[StevenToddIves]

The goalie is the most important player on the ice on a game in game out basis, but you'd be out of your mind to draft one in the top ten, whoever he might be.

That aside, the relative importance of defensemen versus wingers and that actually affecting how you draft is nowhere near the same as the difference between a QB and every other position in football. Drafting Zach Parise worked out a lot better for the Devils than if they had drafted say Dion Phaneuf, who was a real good player in his own right for a while.

Agreed. But if Spencer Knight is still around when the Devils pick in the early second round, they would be insane not to take him there.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

Agreed. But if Spencer Knight is still around when the Devils pick in the early second round, they would be insane not to take him there.

I would say that taking a goalie anywhere after 20 overall is fine. It usually means that you have a good team already and can afford to take a chance on someone that won't pay immediate dividends. It also looks like teams are getting a steadily better at predicting goalie success.

 

[thethinglonger]

Another guy who should be the radar for the Devils scouting staff is Finnish LW Leevi Aaltonen. He's an incredibly fast skater and a very dangerous goal-scorer off the rush. He should go in the 3rd round.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Picking 5th, in the most like likely scenario, would give the Devils a very good shot at a franchise D in Bowen Byram. In the case that Byram (and likely Podkolzin) were off the board, the Devils would have their pick of four potential all-star, 1C options of Turcotte/Cozens/Zegras/Dach.

Byram would immediately become the highest-upside D in the Devils organization since the end of Niedermeyer/Stevens brilliant runs in New Jersey. Any of those four Cs would be the third highest-upside F in the Devils organization after Hall/Hischier, all very good two-way players with PPG NHL ceilings.

I'm pretty sure those are good "consolation prizes". There's really no reason to panic.

You are so optimistic

I really hope you're right because I feel like we are picking 5th or 6th.

 

[mtnet]

Another guy who should be the radar for the Devils scouting staff is Finnish LW Leevi Aaltonen. He's an incredibly fast skater and a very dangerous goal-scorer off the rush. He should go in the 3rd round.

We could really use a guy that can Finnish

 

[StevenToddIves]

Another guy who should be the radar for the Devils scouting staff is Finnish LW Leevi Aaltonen. He's an incredibly fast skater and a very dangerous goal-scorer off the rush. He should go in the 3rd round.

I love these sleeper prospects!

You are so optimistic

I really hope you're right because I feel like we are picking 5th or 6th.

Well, let's try this hypothetical. If the season ended now, the Devils have the second-worst record, so the lowest NJ can draft is 5th. So, let's play out the worst case scenario and say that the 4th to 6th teams win the top three picks, making the order DET-ANH-EDM-COL-NJ.

In this (and every) scenario, the top 2 picks are Hughes/Kakko. So now, the Devils have to wait on EDM and COL before picking.

The Oilers would certainly consider Byram, but their biggest need is wingers for McDavid/Draisaitl, and Byram is not widely considered (by all scouting bureaus) the BPA here, Podkolzin is. However, Podkolzin might not play in North America for two to three seasons. So, my guess here would be that the Oilers take Dylan Cozens -- though listed as a C, Cozens has a great deal of experience at RW, and should be NHL-ready by the 2020-21 campaign. He has huge upside and a great combo of size/speed/skill, and is a terrific finisher. So, Cozens to Edmonton.

Now, Colorado is on the board. Though my personal top-2 Avalanche prospects are D, they are both RD (Cole Makar, Conor Timmins) while Byram plays on the LD, which Colorado sorely needs. They also are desperate for secondary scoring beyond their high-powered top 3 Fs (MacKinnon/Landeskog/Rantanen). Though I think the Avs also would throw Byram's name into consideration, it is again worth noting that most scouts do not have Byram in their top 4. The consensus BPA here would be Podkolzin, and after him probably Kirby Dach. My personal hypothesis would be Avs would take Dach, a very Ryan Getzlaf-like player who would be a brilliant 2C behind MacKinnon for years. But if not Dach, I think the Avs would go with Podkolzin, who just has superstar upside at either wing.

And so it's time for the lottery "losers", the New Jersey Devils to pick. If Podkolzin is on the board, I think the Devils would be focused on three players -- Podkolzin, Byram and Alex Turcotte. Podkolzin can play either wing, as mentioned, and would be the consensus BPA here. Turcotte would be the perfect 2C for the Devils -- he's probably the best two-way C in the draft, he's blindingly fast, and he has sick offensive upside to boot. But in the end, I would say that the Devils would go with Byram, who is head and shoulders above every other D prospect in the draft, and offers a skill/speed/power combo at D which the Devils lack at every level of the organization. The idea of having either Byram or Smith out on D for 50 minutes of every hockey game would be too much for Shero and Castron to pass up. So, I would say that, in this scenario, the Devils would grab Byram 5th (then Podkolzin goes #6 to LA).

Are there scenarios where the Devils lose the lottery AND lose out on Byram? Absolutely. If the Devils pick 5th or 6th and any of DET, LA, FLA, CHI, VAN (especially DET or VAN) pick third or fourth or fifth, I could see those teams taking Byram. As a matter of fact, if the Canucks pick anywhere in the top 10 they must be considered a threat to trade up into the top 5 to take Byram -- they are desperate for D prospects while organizationally strong at F, Byram is the type of player (physical, high compete, skilled) that their scouting staff loves, and Byram plays in Vancouver for the WHL Giants and would be a wildly popular pick while filling a huge organizational need.

What would this mean for the Devils? Well, certainly no reason to panic. If the Devils pick 5 or 6 and Byram is off the board, it would mean that the Devils would certainly have a shot at either Cozens or Turcotte, either of whom have all-star upside at C. And I'm not even mentioning Trevor Zegras (another insanely talented C) or the slim possibility that Podkolzin could fall to 5 or 6.

I mention this hypothetical scenario to make everyone feel better. The Devils are destined to come away from the 2019 draft with a future franchise cornerstone.

 

[MartyOwns]

We could really use a guy that can Finnish

 

[Nubmer6]

And so it's time for the lottery "losers", the New Jersey Devils to pick. If Podkolzin is on the board, I think the Devils would be focused on three players -- Podkolzin, Byram and Alex Turcotte. Podkolzin can play either wing, as mentioned, and would be the consensus BPA here. Turcotte would be the perfect 2C for the Devils -- he's probably the best two-way C in the draft, he's blindingly fast, and he has sick offensive upside to boot. But in the end, I would say that the Devils would go with Byram, who is head and shoulders above every other D prospect in the draft, and offers a skill/speed/power combo at D which the Devils lack at every level of the organization. The idea of having either Byram or Smith out on D for 50 minutes of every hockey game would be too much for Shero and Castron to pass up. So, I would say that, in this scenario, the Devils would grab Byram 5th (then Podkolzin goes #6 to LA).

Are there scenarios where the Devils lose the lottery AND lose out on Byram? Absolutely. If the Devils pick 5th or 6th and any of DET, LA, FLA, CHI, VAN (especially DET or VAN) pick third or fourth or fifth, I could see those teams taking Byram. As a matter of fact, if the Canucks pick anywhere in the top 10 they must be considered a threat to trade up into the top 5 to take Byram -- they are desperate for D prospects while organizationally strong at F, Byram is the type of player (physical, high compete, skilled) that their scouting staff loves, and Byram plays in Vancouver for the WHL Giants and would be a wildly popular pick while filling a huge organizational need.

If Byram were still on the board, I'm not convinced Shero would pick him. WE all see the need and the fit, but I just get the gut feeling that he values forwards higher than D. Also, between Smith and Davies, he may also see the several young LHD in the pipeline and decide a C is more important (presuming it's a tie for BPA). For me, if Cozens is still on the board, I'd have to think long and hard about which to pick. As I've said before, I really feel Cozens fills so many check boxes for us as a forward, especially that he's a shooter and would fit well with our wingers like Bratt who tend to be playmakers.

I, for one, will be bracing myself for the possibility that this board melts down because we pass on Byram..

 

[My3Sons]

If Byram were still on the board, I'm not convinced Shero would pick him. WE all see the need and the fit, but I just get the gut feeling that he values forwards higher than D. Also, between Smith and Davies, he may also see the several young LHD in the pipeline and decide a C is more important (presuming it's a tie for BPA). For me, if Cozens is still on the board, I'd have to think long and hard about which to pick. As I've said before, I really feel Cozens fills so many check boxes for us as a forward, especially that he's a shooter and would fit well with our wingers like Bratt who tend to be playmakers.

I, for one, will be bracing myself for the possibility that this board melts down because we pass on Byram..

BPA in every pick at every round should be the guiding philosophy. If you have a number of players grouped as equivalent then sure go with positional need. My impression is that Castron has earned some slack for the correct calls on Nico Smith and oh yeah some scrub throwaway pick in the sixth named Fratt or Qratt or something.

Even the McLeod pick doesn’t look awful in context. None of the players from that part of the draft are lighting it up. Jost Nylander Brown are all iffy right now. I could make the argument that the third line grinder was a very reasonable pick there. Ultimately they are all still young so time will tell.

Yes there will be draft day complainers but it’s hard to take it that seriously when as STI has laid out there are probably better options than Byram potentially available.