Prospect Info: 2019 NHL Entry Draft Part I

[OmNomNom]

imagine if colorado somehow pick #1 and #2

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

Welp a good 2nd line player 3 years from now? That sounds like a pretty good player. Especially if it's a center.

So it sounds accurate, but really not that bad.

The players I mentioned are projected to be good 1st line players for the most part, and possibly great 2nd line players. Everyone here is all over the place and needs to relax about the draft.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Welp a good 2nd line player 3 years from now? That sounds like a pretty good player. Especially if it's a center.

So it sounds accurate, but really not that bad.

You can find that later in the first round without potentially harming your current young players with dogshit play.

 

[devilsblood]

The players I mentioned are projected to be good 1st line players for the most part, and possibly great 2nd line players. Everyone here is all over the place and needs to relax about the draft.

Most top 10 draftees are projected to be top line players, but the reality is, even at 5, if you get a good 2nd line center, you take that and run. Especially if you have a legit #1 C already in the mix.

Now on D, I'm top pair or bust, but at fwd a legit good 2nd line player is fine.

 

[devilsblood]

You can find that later in the first round without potentially harming your current young players with dog**** play.

you can find that.

But you are not likely to find that.

 

[AfroThunder396]

imagine if colorado somehow pick #1 and #2

Their cap will be totally f***ed. Rantanen is RFA this year, Barrie UFA next year, and Landeskog UFA the season after that. That's a nice two year window before you have to start shipping guys off.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

Their cap will be totally ****ed. Rantanen is RFA this year, Barrie UFA next year, and Landeskog UFA the season after that. That's a nice two year window before you have to start shipping guys off.

They don't love Barrie, could be someone they move on from if makar comes in and plays well.

 

[MartyOwns]

You can find that later in the first round without potentially harming your current young players with dog**** play.

who is being harmed here lol

 

[Billdo]

If we pick 5th we likely get one of Byram, Turcotte, Cozens, Dach, Krebs, podkolzin, zegras etc. Those players are better than the scenario you are laying out.

Byram is going to be an absolute stud and I really hope if we land at 3 he's the pick.

 

[OmNomNom]

Their cap will be totally ****ed. Rantanen is RFA this year, Barrie UFA next year, and Landeskog UFA the season after that. That's a nice two year window before you have to start shipping guys off.

why would picking #1 and #2 f*** their cap? hughes and kakko would step in on ELCs. it's not a terrible problem to have, having to sell big name players

 

[mtnet]

Byram is going to be an absolute stud and I really hope if we land at 3 he's the pick.

Yeah I'm pretty high on Byram, though obviously in part due to our scarcity of bona fide top 4 D. 17yo currently #4 in points among WHL defenseman 21g/32a (Ty Smith #2 with 4g/52a)

Looks like a very complete player. Big time offensive threat due to terrific mobility, breakout/zone entry prowess, and slick stickhandling/puck protection. He's also perfectly happy to get physical in his own zone too, for those who know we desperately lack that element.

I know we need a top flight center too but for defense, I'd love this kid in our stable.

 

[MartyOwns]

Yeah I'm pretty high on Byram, though obviously in part due to our scarcity of bona fide top 4 D. 17yo currently #4 in points among WHL defenseman 21g/32a (Ty Smith #2 with 4g/52a)

Looks like a very complete player. Big time offensive threat due to terrific mobility, breakout/zone entry prowess, and slick stickhandling/puck protection. He's also perfectly happy to get physical in his own zone too, for those who know we desperately lack that element.

I know we need a top flight center too but for defense, I'd love this kid in our stable.

yeah. it’s a lot easier to acquire a 2C in FA or via trade than it is to acquire a true first pairing defenseman. so our hole at 2C shouldn’t factor into who we draft.

 

[Billdo]

Yeah I'm pretty high on Byram, though obviously in part due to our scarcity of bona fide top 4 D. 17yo currently #4 in points among WHL defenseman 21g/32a (Ty Smith #2 with 4g/52a)

Looks like a very complete player. Big time offensive threat due to terrific mobility, breakout/zone entry prowess, and slick stickhandling/puck protection. He's also perfectly happy to get physical in his own zone too, for those who know we desperately lack that element.

I know we need a top flight center too but for defense, I'd love this kid in our stable.

He's a total package. Smith has more of an offensive game but Byram is a complete player and that's not a slight at Smith.

 

[Devils Dominion]

I'm scared of drafting players who have last names of NJ towns, after taking Chatham

Byram would be risky based on that.

 

[beekay414]

I've been pounding the table for Byram. I'd seriously consider him at #2 overall if we land it. Kakko is legit but I'm not a huge fan of taking wing only players top 2. I think, long run, Byram has a much higher overall impact than Kakko.

 

[Ripshot 43]

I've been pounding the table for Byram. I'd seriously consider him at #2 overall if we land it. Kakko is legit but I'm not a huge fan of taking wing only players top 2. I think, long run, Byram has a much higher overall impact than Kakko.

Everywhere I’ve seen has Hughes in his own tier, then Kakko and then Byram mixed with the next 7 or 8 for tier 3. You have a very legitimate argument that say our magic 8 ball shows Kakko will be a top line 30 goal, 80-90 point RW for the prime of his career. If Byram future shows him being a 1st pairing, 2 way and all situational D, shouldn’t he be in the conversation? Not just because of our situation but I find it to be harder to come across that 1st line defenseman than the point producing wing.

 

[Devils731]

I've been pounding the table for Byram. I'd seriously consider him at #2 overall if we land it. Kakko is legit but I'm not a huge fan of taking wing only players top 2. I think, long run, Byram has a much higher overall impact than Kakko.

Any concern that wingers are likely easier to project and scout than defenseman?

 

[SJinNewJersey]

With so many games left to play the standing could really change. Look at where Philly, Chicago, and Colorado were 10 games ago.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

Everywhere I’ve seen has Hughes in his own tier, then Kakko and then Byram mixed with the next 7 or 8 for tier 3. You have a very legitimate argument that say our magic 8 ball shows Kakko will be a top line 30 goal, 80-90 point RW for the prime of his career. If Byram future shows him being a 1st pairing, 2 way and all situational D, shouldn’t he be in the conversation? Not just because of our situation but I find it to be harder to come across that 1st line defenseman than the point producing wing.

Kakko is a more talented player and is more likely to be great than Byram. All the players in the top 10 have high ceilings. But as of the draft Kakko is a superior talent and player to Byram, and I love Byram.

 

[Call Me Al]

yeah i think the argument is that byram has something that we desperately need and can't really get somewhere else - a number 1 d man for the next 10+ years

 

[135ace]

Kakko is a more talented player and is more likely to be great than Byram. All the players in the top 10 have high ceilings. But as of the draft Kakko is a superior talent and player to Byram, and I love Byram.

It seems like it's always a little riskier to project a Dman as well, even at the top of the draft. And then of course there's the fact that forward are usually more productive and therefore more valuable on their ELCs. Just look at generational forwards like McDavid and Matthews who jump right in to make a huge impact compared to Dahlin, who while being good is just a solid guy and doesn't really effect games as much, at least not yet.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

It seems like it's always a little riskier to project a Dman as well, even at the top of the draft. And then of course there's the fact that forward are usually more productive and therefore more valuable on their ELCs. Just look at generational forwards like McDavid and Matthews who jump right in to make a huge impact compared to Dahlin, who while being good is just a solid guy and doesn't really effect games as much, at least not yet.

Kakko reminds me of Mikko Rantanen in his draft +1 year with a little less size and more speed. I think he can come in next year and be a top 6 player right away and Byram will need time to develop. Byram may be able to come in at the start of 2020 season, but he isn't rasmus dahlin by any means it will take time and development to get where he needs to be, which is more questionable than Kakko who is more of a sure thing with a very high ceiling.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Reading through this thread makes me realize many dont get the probabilities at play in the NHL draft & how it works.

Let's say you finish 4th, then the most probable sole statistical slot you draft in assumes you get bumped 2 spots to #6. The next most probable sole scenario is you only get bumped 1 spot to #5. BUT, sandwiched between those possibilities is the cumulative probability that you move UP 1, 2, or 3 slots, which is just slightly more probable than only getting bumped 1 spot.

This is a long-winded way to say, that if you finish 3, 4, 5, etc.. it is statistically probable you DO get bumped at least 1 spot.

 

[135ace]

Reading through this thread makes me realize many dont get the probabilities at play in the NHL draft & how it works.

Let's say you finish 4th, then the most probable sole statistical slot you draft in assumes you get bumped 2 spots to #6. The next most probable sole scenario is you only get bumped 1 spot to #5. BUT, sandwiched between those possibilities is the cumulative probability that you move UP 1, 2, or 3 slots, which is just slightly more probable than only getting bumped 1 spot.

This is a long-winded way to say, that if you finish 3, 4, 5, etc.. it is statistically probable you DO get bumped at least 1 spot.

Yes, the odds are that you drop, but it's also highly unlikely to drop 3 spots, unless you finish dead last. If for example you finish 4th it's only around a 10% chance you drop 3 spots, or the same likelihood as moving up to 1OA. That's why if we finish 3rd or lower we are going to either get a big win with a 1 or 2OA or our pick of the next tier (and an excellent prospect nonetheless). It starts to hurt if we finish 5/6/7 and drop 2 spots.

 

[Nubmer6]

Yes, the odds are that you drop, but it's also highly unlikely to drop 3 spots, unless you finish dead last. If for example you finish 4th it's only around a 10% chance you drop 3 spots, or the same likelihood as moving up to 1OA. That's why if we finish 3rd or lower we are going to either get a big win with a 1 or 2OA or our pick of the next tier (and an excellent prospect nonetheless). It starts to hurt if we finish 5/6/7 and drop 2 spots.

Actually, I think after the top two and Byram, I'm pretty much going to be happy with anyone left in the top 10.