Prospect Info: 2019 NHL Draft tracker

[Halak Ness Monster]

With the lottery though, you can easily jump into the top 3. That's how Philly got Patrick or Carolina got Svechnikov.

Not if we get the 11th+ pick

 

[bleedblue1223]

Not if we get the 11th+ pick

The pick protection is post-lottery. If we finish with 11th pick, and win the lottery, we still keep the pick.

 

[Vladdy the Impaler]

Here's the problem, we aren't tanking.

We have a collection of very good hockey players playing terrible hockey.

We could very easily flip a switch one day and make the playoffs. We've turned bad seasons around later than Dec 14th before. And not too long ago. When Hitch was fired or in 2008-2009 for example.

We could also flip a switch but not all the way and get the 11th overall pick.

I just don't think we have a bad enough roster to finish bottom 3-4 in the league. One day I think something will click enough that we finish around 7th-12th worst.

At this point, there's about a 1% chance of that ever happening. This team is too much of a cluster$%#& for them to start playing hockey like a playoff caliber team. It would take nothing short of a miracle to make the playoffs.

Which means going on a short run, just enough to knock ourselves out of the top 10 in the draft and thereby forfeiting our first round pick to Buffalo, would be so typical for this franchise. If we're gonna have a shit season, we might as well get something out of it.

 

[Halak Ness Monster]

The pick protection is post-lottery. If we finish with 11th pick, and win the lottery, we still keep the pick.

Ooooo great news!

 

[Mike Liut]

RW Vasili Podkolzin - SKA St. Petersburg, MHL

Very intriguing player. If look hard at him if we pick between 6-8

 

[The Note in MI]

RW Vasili Podkolzin - SKA St. Petersburg, MHL

Very intriguing player. If look hard at him if we pick between 6-8

I don’t think he will get to that range.

 

[Mike Liut]

I don’t think he will get to that range.

I think you’re right. Just saw a couple mocks that had him at #3

 

[bleedblue1223]

Eh, It's ok, this team is destined for a top 5 pick at the worst.

 

[SC29681]

I’ll take a 2nd round appearance any year. By that point, with 8 teams left, you are one hot goalie streak from making the Finals. Any team could do that if the stars line up.

When is the last time you saw any stars line up?
Jake Allen is going to turn in a playoff STRETCH comparable to Andre Fleury with Pittsburgh, Tim Thomas with Boston, Jaroslav Halak with Montreal?
You're tripping.
Blues fans partake in this fantasy every year. No thanks.

 

[SC29681]

I'm starting to warm to the idea of a top 5 or 7 pick, drafting an elite player on an ELC, hire a new/better permanent head coach, trade some unnecessary or expiring contracts, and retool in the offseason. it might be the best thing for this core of players. Kyrou, Thomas, Kostin, all one year older and hopefully better able to contribute, the same with Fabbri. can never have enough cheap young talent.

of course if they pull their heads outta their asses and make it to the WCF or something, i wouldn't complain either.

If the Blues make it to the WCF and get stomped like they did against the Sharks I don't think I will be happy unless one, preferably two of Thomas, Barbashev or Kyrou explodes. Then I might think we can win it all the next year.

 

[SC29681]

They’ve definitely neutered the effectiveness of tanking(which I’m 100% in favor of) but it’s still an effective strategy to an extent. The best players, on average, are found near the top of the draft, specifically the top 3. If you’re clearly not going to be a playoff team, you’re still better off tanking than gunning for it because you want your odds for a top three pick to be as good as possible. There’s really no reason to completely bottom out though because the odds difference between the worst and fourth worst aren’t that substandtial.

I don’t think the players need to tank in order to be near the bottom of the standings. We’re pretty clearly one of the worst teams in the league so just playing out the season while giving younger guys like Thomas, Dunn and maybe eventually a couple of the guys from the AHLbigger roles. Give them PP time, PK time etc. We don’t have much to lose, but that experience is incredibly valuable even in losing efforts. We don’t need to dump Petro or Vladdy to tank. We’re doing a great job of it as it is. Wouldn’t be the worst thing to help it along though by playing some inexperienced players more often.

The fourth or fifth pick in this year's draft would be awesome. Send Dunn down to San Antonio and call up Butler. Bring Dunn up again next year after he's developed some.

 

[Brockon]

Tarasenko, Schwartz, Fabbri, Thomas and Kyrou were all outside the top 5. I’d be happy getting a player like them at 8-10.

So were Barzal, Pastrnak, Karlsson, McAvoy and Boeser. 3 of them were considered among the top 20 at their position within 4 years of being drafted, jury is still out on Boeser andMMcAvoy being that high, though clearly talented.

The difference is that most top 5 picks are usually in ths NHL within 2 seasons of being drafted and frequently the season after their draft. Outside the top 5, the expectation is a 2-4 year project. @Frenzy31 I'm not sure if that's what you were getting at with elite comment?

The expectation exists that a top 5 pick will play on your roster in his D+1 or D+2 season, whereas there is a little more patience with picks made in the middle of the 1st round to round out their defensive game or offensive game in the CHL or NCAA ranks over a few more seasons. The later the pick, the lesser the expectations and more patience is given to develop a prospect before labeling them a bust (see Virtanen 22 y/o 2015 6th OA or Juolevi 20 y/o 5th OA 2016).

If we draft in the 1-10 range range there is a greater pressure on this prospect to play in the NHL, or there is considerable noise after 2 years that they are busts. Picks made later in the first are often given 4 years before the same whispers gain traction.

 

[Frenzy31]

So were Barzal, Pastrnak, Karlsson, McAvoy and Boeser. 3 of them were considered among the top 20 at their position within 4 years of being drafted, jury is still out on Boeser andMMcAvoy being that high, though clearly talented.

The difference is that most top 5 picks are usually in ths NHL within 2 seasons of being drafted and frequently the season after their draft. Outside the top 5, the expectation is a 2-4 year project. @Frenzy31 I'm not sure if that's what you were getting at with elite comment?

The expectation exists that a top 5 pick will play on your roster in his D+1 or D+2 season, whereas there is a little more patience with picks made in the middle of the 1st round to round out their defensive game or offensive game in the CHL or NCAA ranks over a few more seasons. The later the pick, the lesser the expectations and more patience is given to develop a prospect before labeling them a bust (see Virtanen 22 y/o 2015 6th OA or Juolevi 20 y/o 5th OA 2016).

If we draft in the 1-10 range range there is a greater pressure on this prospect to play in the NHL, or there is considerable noise after 2 years that they are busts. Picks made later in the first are often given 4 years before the same whispers gain traction.

For the most part, elite offensive players are usually taken in the top 3-5 picks.

I love guys like Thomas, but he will not likely be at the level of some one like, Eichel, Matthews, etc.... he is a step down.

I feel that IN MOST drafts, their are a set number 1-3 elite players. Then some blue chips picks 4-8 after that pick 8 - 20 you can draft a Thomas in the 20s and he will be on the same level as anyone in that group.

There are outliers and guys from certain countries that may fall. You find a zeterburg, but that is one in a........

I feel we have a lot of good talent, but really only one Elite player in Tarasenko. We have legit first liners in schwartz, but we are missing that one player who is dangerous every time he gets the puck. Kane type of player. Someone who can just go out and scorer or create a goal when needed.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

The fourth or fifth pick in this year's draft would be awesome. Send Dunn down to San Antonio and call up Butler. Bring Dunn up again next year after he's developed some.

Dunn isn't going back to the minors. Let him work through this season and take his lumps, focus on getting him some instruction in the offseason.

 

[Blueston]

Obviously if we get top 3 picks we keep it, but question to me is where is cutoff that we would say to Buffalo, "take it, we don't want to risk next year's"? How many elite players do we think there are? Because if we end up with pick in range 7 -10 pick we are likely not getting true blue chipper.

 

[542365]

Obviously if we get top 3 picks we keep it, but question to me is where is cutoff that we would say to Buffalo, "take it, we don't want to risk next year's"? How many elite players do we think there are? Because if we end up with pick in range 7 -10 pick we are likely not getting true blue chipper.

I think anywhere in the top ten we’re going to keep it. GMs have too much pride to admit their team isn’t going to be any good next year and we see so many crazy turn-around a from one season to the next that that line of thinking isn’t delusional. Currently I see no reason this team will be any better next year, but we have no idea what the team will look like on opening night next year. It would be a big mistake to give up the 8th pick, for instance, only to see the team take off next year and pick in the 20s.

 

[Blueston]

I think anywhere in the top ten we’re going to keep it. GMs have too much pride to admit their team isn’t going to be any good next year and we see so many crazy turn-around a from one season to the next that that line of thinking isn’t delusional. Currently I see no reason this team will be any better next year, but we have no idea what the team will look like on opening night next year. It would be a big mistake to give up the 8th pick, for instance, only to see the team take off next year and pick in the 20s.

Wouldn't it be a bigger mistake to keep the 8th pick and have to give away the 1st pick the following year?

 

[542365]

Wouldn't it be a bigger mistake to keep the 8th pick and have to give away the 1st pick the following year?

If it came to pass that way, of course, but I don’t think Army is going to anticipate his team being this bad again. Whether that assumption is correct or not will likely determine his fate as GM. Ottawa was in a similar position with a FAR worse roster and chose to keep the pick(and as everyone expected they suck this year). I think we’d do the same anticipating a turn-around.

 

[Blueston]

If it came to pass that way, of course, but I don’t think Army is going to anticipate his team being this bad again. Whether that assumption is correct or not will likely determine his fate as GM. Ottawa was in a similar position with a FAR worse roster and chose to keep the pick(and as everyone expected they suck this year). I think we’d do the same anticipating a turn-around.

Ottawa had 4th pick that they kept. My question is where is line? If we are dealing off stars chances are we struggle to make playoffs next year too.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Ottawa had 4th pick that they kept. My question is where is line? If we are dealing off stars chances are we struggle to make playoffs next year too.

The key is to not deal stars and take the pick if we are allowed to keep it. This team is too good with a good coach to do anything otherwise.

 

[Blueston]

The key is to not deal stars and take the pick if we are allowed to keep it. This team is too good with a good coach to do anything otherwise.

Are we sure the team is good? 2 years ago fired Hitch and barely made playoffs. Last year missed playoffs. This year one of worst teams in league. Obviously better coaching would help, but not like even Q can make chicken salad out of chicken **** (or Chicago wouldn't have missed playoffs last year).

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Are we sure the team is good? 2 years ago fired Hitch and barely made playoffs. Last year missed playoffs. This year one of worst teams in league. Obviously better coaching would help, but not like even Q can make chicken salad out of chicken sh!t (or Chicago wouldn't have missed playoffs last year).

We are nowhere near Chicago-bad with our roster, cap, or future - same with most bottom-15 teams.

I see this team as a lesser version of TBL when they were bottom of the league that one year. I think there’s a strong case that we have more in common with TBL than we do with CHI, OTT, EDM, LA, or ARI.

 

[Blueston]

We are nowhere near Chicago-bad with our roster, cap, or future - same with most bottom-15 teams.

I see this team as a lesser version of TBL when they were bottom of the league that one year. I think there’s a strong case that we have more in common with TBL than we do with CHI, OTT, EDM, LA, or ARI.

Perhaps, but it's not just 1 bad year. This is 3rd in row. To compare our roster to Tampa at this point seems like wishful thinking.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Perhaps, but it's not just 1 bad year. This is 3rd in row. To compare our roster to Tampa at this point seems like wishful thinking.

Two years ago the Blues had average-ish team goaltending (from both goaltenders) and they made the playoffs with an average-ish seed.

Last year the Blues had average-ish team goaltending because Hutton played out of his mind even though Allen had a pretty bad year...but Allen had twice the starts that Hutton did, and there was just no overcoming that even though the Blues still finished with a pretty "average" record.

This year the Blues are getting bottom four goaltending, and they have a bottom five record by point percentage. They sure as hell don't have a bottom four defense (top five team in expected goals against/60 minutes, top five team in fewest giveaway/60 minutes, top 10 team in terms of Corsi Against/60, Shots Against/60, and High Danger Chances Against/60, etc.), so...

Do I think that this team could immediately become at least a playoff team simply by getting league average goaltending, even with relatively crappy coaching? Yeah, I do. I think it's really that simple. It's not that hard to be a playoff team, but it's really hard to have any success at all with crappy goaltending.

I don't think this team can be considered a credible threat (winning a round and perhaps another) without some good coaching as well, and I certainly think the roster needs some work before they're considered any sort of "favorite" even with good goaltending and coaching already on board. But this team doesn't need to rebuild, or even retool, just to get back to usual state of making the playoffs and perhaps winning a round. They just need some ****ing goaltending...a thing that they've usually had in the past, often in spite of themselves.

Edit: Before someone jumps on me because Allen is playing "well" this year, by far his most favorable metric is Quality Start %...where he ranks 28th out of 62 goalies with 10 or more starts this year (or 19th out of 42 goalies with 15 or more starts). Definitely not good enough when your team basically has zero chance in your non-quality starts. He's outside the top 30 in virtually everything else of any consequence.

 

[Blueston]

Two years ago the Blues had average-ish team goaltending (from both goaltenders) and they made the playoffs with an average-ish seed.

Last year the Blues had average-ish team goaltending because Hutton played out of his mind even though Allen had a pretty bad year...but Allen had twice the starts that Hutton did, and there was just no overcoming that even though the Blues still finished with a pretty "average" record.

This year the Blues are getting bottom four goaltending, and they have a bottom five record by point percentage. They sure as hell don't have a bottom four defense (top five team in expected goals against/60 minutes, top five team in fewest giveaway/60 minutes, top 10 team in terms of Corsi Against/60, Shots Against/60, and High Danger Chances Against/60, etc.), so...

Do I think that this team could immediately become at least a playoff team simply by getting league average goaltending, even with relatively crappy coaching? Yeah, I do. I think it's really that simple. It's not that hard to be a playoff team, but it's really hard to have any success at all with crappy goaltending.

I don't think this team can be considered a credible threat (winning a round and perhaps another) without some good coaching as well, and I certainly think the roster needs some work before they're considered any sort of "favorite" even with good goaltending and coaching already on board. But this team doesn't need to rebuild, or even retool, just to get back to usual state of making he playoffs and perhaps winning a round. They just need some ****ing goaltending...a thing that they've usually had in the past, often in spite of themselves.

Edit: Before someone jumps on me because Allen is playing "well" this year, by far his most favorable metric is Quality Start %...where he ranks 28th out of 62 goalies with 10 or more starts this year (or 19th out of 42 goalies with 15 or more starts). Definitely not good enough when your team basically has zero chance in your non-quality starts. He's outside the top 30 in virtually everything else of any consequence.

I think you are overselling us. We are scoring well below league average, as we did last year too. Obviously we would be better team if we replaced Allen with good goalie and had better coaching. Hopefully we can hire great coach, but that is far from guaranteed. And finding top quality goalie (not just average one even) is much harder.

We don't seem to have good enough team to be contender with average goaltending, so prudent thing to do would be to stop kidding ourselves that we are a really good team in disguise and make the necessary changes so that we can be contender in next few years.