GDT: 2019 IIHF U18 Tournament

[Christien]

AM or PM?

AM

 

[lilidk]

Big game tomorrow morning: USA Vs Russia. It's going to be on NHL Network at 9:30 AM for anyone wanting to get a good look at Podkolzin, Turcotte, Zegras etc.

Podkolzin simply cannot keep up with fast paced game. USA going to destroy Russia. So it s Zegras or Turcotte , maybe pay attention to #11 Nicolaev, probably available in the second round

 

[DetroitRed]

So Russia beat Slovakia 6-3 and Podkolzin just wasn't involved at all in the scoring? Hmm.

You know, they say that stats don't tell the whole story on prospects and I think that's true about stats, but stats can tell part of the story. What I think Podkolzin's IIHF U18 numbers are telling us is that if he reaches potential, it probably won't be relatively soon.

I think that Chicago and Colorado (picks 3 and 4), especially Colorado, would rather draft a prospect who can help them soon, if not immediately. So, if IIHF U18 makes them think Podkolzin could be a lengthy project, then I don't see Podkolzin being drafted until at least 5th (LA).

LA has time for a big project. The question LA would face is whether Podkolzin's undeveloped potential is worth more than Dach, Turcotte, Krebs, and other guys in that range.

Detroit may also think it has time for a big project. Detroit also faces that same question about BPA that LA faces regarding Podkolzin. However, Detroit may have an easier time answering that question because the thing Detroit needs least is a winger. Need can be a factor when it isn't otherwise clear which prospect has the most potential.

If LA or Detroit don't draft Podkolzin, he might just fall to about 9th or 10th. That's where there are more teams who may feel like they have time to gamble on a lengthy project. There're just so many kids playing their asses off either in playoffs of in IIHF U18, who are in that picks 3-10 range, that I wouldn't be surprised if that happened.

In general, I think we all like to be able to make direct comparisons between prospects before we can have confidence in them. Since IIHF U18, now we can make comparisons to Podkolzin, but it would be easier to decide on drafting him if we could draft him in part based on how successful he is in comparison to the other prospects at the tournament. As it stands, whoever drafts him will do so without the aid of that. Instead, they'll have to rely solely on his undeveloped potential, which is hard to quantify, especially if he isn't performing as well as others on the list.

 

[DetroitRed]

I would also add that Podkolzin really isn't the same as the Zadina situation. Zadina's potential was seen as high, plus his numbers in QMJHL demonstrated some of his capability. His numbers, insticts and his skills hinted at elite talent. I think if it wasn't for the combine, he wouldn't have fallen to 6th. At the combine teams saw that he was going to need a bit more development than previously estimated, particularly with physicality. So, he fell to us.

With Podkolzin, it's harder to tell. He may very well slip to 9th or 10th.

 

[Christien]

Podkolzin simply cannot keep up with fast paced game. USA going to destroy Russia. So it s Zegras or Turcotte , maybe pay attention to #11 Nicolaev, probably available in the second round

I want us to draft Zegras really badly and I think he's exactly what we need if we can't get Byram. I haven't been able to watch a whole lot of Podkolzin, but I was able to watch him play in the U20s and I thought he was pretty good and made some smart plays. I just think he's such an unknown and a lot of people haven't seen him play much, including myself, but a lot of the "experts" really like him so it's interesting. Looking forward to watching him play in the game this morning.

 

[Christien]

I would also add that Podkolzin really isn't the same as the Zadina situation. Zadina's potential was seen as high, plus his numbers in QMJHL demonstrated some of his capability. His numbers, insticts and his skills hinted at elite talent. I think if it wasn't for the combine, he wouldn't have fallen to 6th. At the combine teams saw that he was going to need a bit more development than previously estimated, particularly with physicality. So, he fell to us.

With Podkolzin, it's harder to tell. He may very well slip to 9th or 10th.

There's just so many good centers in this draft and everybody wants one

 

[raymond23]

Can someone pm me a stream?

 

[lilidk]

I would also add that Podkolzin really isn't the same as the Zadina situation. Zadina's potential was seen as high, plus his numbers in QMJHL demonstrated some of his capability. His numbers, insticts and his skills hinted at elite talent. I think if it wasn't for the combine, he wouldn't have fallen to 6th. At the combine teams saw that he was going to need a bit more development than previously estimated, particularly with physicality. So, he fell to us.

With Podkolzin, it's harder to tell. He may very well slip to 9th or 10th.

Kind of strange .Podkolzin>Zadina, but still probably like you said going to be picked 9or10. Hockey has changed, we need to stay in trend

 

[plymouthmi]

This tournament is my first experience watching some of these prospects and I like this Zegras kid a lot. I feel like I notice him every time he's on the ice. Why didn't he play in the first couple of games?

Also, this Russian goalie seems really good.

 

[Hen Kolland]

This tournament is my first experience watching some of these prospects and I like this Zegras kid a lot. I feel like I notice him every time he's on the ice. Why didn't he play in the first couple of games?

Also, this Russian goalie seems really good.

Injury I believe

 

[Hen Kolland]

I love watching Zegras on the powerplay. Such a treat.

 

[DInTheB]

I love watching Zegras on the powerplay. Such a treat.

Yep.

I’ve been on the Zegras train for a while and my appreciation only continues to grow.

 

[DInTheB]

I would like to see more results offensively from Podkolzin, but I like how he plays in all three zones. He’s more balanced than I realized.

 

[Frk It]

Hell of a snipe... that was a big one Cole.

 

[jkutswings]

Kind of strange .Podkolzin>Zadina, but still probably like you said going to be picked 9or10. Hockey has changed, we need to stay in trend

If somebody gave me a million dollars, and my only two options were to either bet it all on Zadina having a great NHL career, or to bet it all on Podkolzin having a great NHL career...

...I choose Zadina without hesitation.

Both players might turn out great, but I've seen a lot more evidence for Filip than for Vasili.

 

[Frk It]

I need some kind of an explanation for Podkolzin with this tournament.

He’s very much been a non-factor. How are you the #3 player and a non-factor in a tournament you dominated last year?

 

[Frk It]

Kind of strange .Podkolzin>Zadina, but still probably like you said going to be picked 9or10. Hockey has changed, we need to stay in trend

I liked Zadina way better as a prospect.

 

[jkutswings]

I need some kind of an explanation for Podkolzin with this tournament.

He’s very much been a non-factor. How are you the #3 player and a non-factor in a tournament you dominated last year?

It's bizarre, but it could be any number of things. A minor injury, just hitting a cold streak, or even feeling the pressure of final evaluations before the draft.

But for a kid that I have reservations about due to sample size, it certainly doesn't help his cause.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

I need some kind of an explanation for Podkolzin with this tournament.

He’s very much been a non-factor. How are you the #3 player and a non-factor in a tournament you dominated last year?

I think it's just part of the variability of the tourney, especially given the small number of games played if a player gets hot or cold it becomes really noticeable. Look at Maxim Cajkovic last year, he had 11 points in 5 games, this year just 5 in 5. The U18 is littered with guys that had fantastic scoring tournaments but just got hot, as well as those that were cold but still developed into good NHLers.

I know there's more to it than stat watching, but I think there's a real problem with some players who get over/under drafted based off of their U-18 performances. Mind you, given Podkolzin's play in his domestic leagues this year he really did need to have a very productive tournament to justify being the "consensus" #3.

 

[Zetterbeer]

Zegras has been very impressive in this 3rd period and into OT. Very dynamic, maybe the best hands in the draft after Hughes.

 

[Frk It]

I think it's just part of the variability of the tourney, especially given the small number of games played if a player gets hot or cold it becomes really noticeable. Look at Maxim Cajkovic last year, he had 11 points in 5 games, this year just 5 in 5. The U18 is littered with guys that had fantastic scoring tournaments but just got hot, as well as those that were cold but still developed into good NHLers.

I know there's more to it than stat watching, but I think there's a real problem with some players who get over/under drafted based off of their U-18 performances. Mind you, given Podkolzin's play in his domestic leagues this year he really did need to have a very productive tournament to justify being the "consensus" #3.

I honestly expected him to do the opposite. I thought he was going to come in and show everyone why he was the #3 player and make a statement.

I’ll be honest, on occasion I’ve had to remind myself that he’s #19, because it’s not even abundantly clear who Russia’s best player is and who I’m supposed to keep an eye on.

I hope that he’s hurt or there’s some kind of a reason behind this, because he was great at the Hlinka the last time I saw him play.

 

[Hen Kolland]

This goalie is an under ager for Russia?

 

[plymouthmi]

This goalie is an under ager for Russia?

He's 16, turns 17 in June.

 

[Hen Kolland]

He's 16, turns 17 in June.

Insane level of poise in this moment for a 16 year old

 

[plymouthmi]

Insane level of poise in this moment for a 16 year old

Yes, I've been very impressed with him. He seems so sound positionally too. Now I want the Red Wings to draft him next year!