2019 Entry Draft Thread: Part III

[Mrb1p]

I forgot about Chychrun. He was just over scouted the same way Veleno was and kind of died down on everyone.

I would personally rather a Byram type that I know will at least put up decent numbers on the back end while being an all situation D-man to a Sergachev that probably will never be a true all around guy but will put up bigger numbers.

I would not. Exactly why I had Boqvist ahead of Dobson last year.

 

[Janne Niinimaa]

I would not. Exactly why I had Boqvist ahead of Dobson last year.

I had Smith ahead of all the D not named Dahlin. I guess it comes down to preference and I see a lot of similarities in Byram and Smith's games.

 

[SOLR]

Byram outplayed Ty Smith at the u-18 when they were paired together and showed more offensively. I don't know where these questions about his offensive game are coming from but he stepped it up during last seasons playoffs, had a respectable offensive output as a 16 year old in the WHL and showed his offensive poise at the u-18 despite not putting up many points.

There is nothing wrong with grabbing a minute eating, all situation D-man that will be able to dictate the pace from the blue line. We don't necessarily need the big offensive D-man.

And, he's probably not trying to do too much offensively vs. being balanced.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I think you can get it done by committee on defence more than you can get it done without elite talent down the middle.

By no means were Washington and Pittsburgh deep on defence.

 

[Janne Niinimaa]

And, he's probably not trying to do too much offensively vs. being balanced.

I agree. Balance is perfect. Byram is still almost ppg this season. He is in no way bad offensively and his defensive game is very good. Balance is what we need.

 

[Mrb1p]

I think you can get it done by committee on defence more than you can get it done without elite talent down the middle.

By no means were Washington and Pittsburgh deep on defence.

Washington ? Wasn't a bad group either. Carlson, Niskanen, Orlov is a pretty good top three to have IMO. But I agree, and again, as I said a thousand times, defenders are much easier to acquire without a top ten picks than D's. Brook, Juulsen and Mete are good example of that again.

 

[Mrb1p]

I agree. Balance is perfect. Byram is still almost ppg this season. He is in no way bad offensively and his defensive game is very good. Balance is what we need.

Nobody ever said he was bad though.

 

[Janne Niinimaa]

I think you can get it done by committee on defence more than you can get it done without elite talent down the middle.

By no means were Washington and Pittsburgh deep on defence.

That is true. But at the same time Chicago had Keith and LA had Doughty.

Letting + Dumoulin and Carlson + Niskanen + Orlov are still way better than what we have.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying we need to draft Byram over a centre. Just that some of the reasons I see against him are very weak and I think people are underestimating the impact a top young D-man can have on the team.

 

[Janne Niinimaa]

Nobody ever said he was bad though.

No but it seems like him not being a true offensive defenseman is being used against him somehow.

 

[Mrb1p]

No but it seems like him not being a true offensive defenseman is being used against him somehow.

Against him as a high pick, yes. I don't agree with picking a guy that projects to be somewhere between McDonagh and Suter in the top 10, or the top 5.

 

[Janne Niinimaa]

Against him as a high pick, yes. I don't agree with picking a guy that projects to be somewhere between McDonagh and Suter in the top 10, or the top 5.

I guess that's where we differ. You'll have a hard time convincing me that a 24+ minute per game, all situation d-man that will put up 30-40 points per season, maybe 50 on a good year, is a bad pick in the top 5-10.

If you offer any team an 18 year old McDonagh or Suter for a draft pick within the 5-10 range, I'm pretty sure they all say yes.

 

[Andrei79]

Against him as a high pick, yes. I don't agree with picking a guy that projects to be somewhere between McDonagh and Suter in the top 10, or the top 5.

I would quite easily pick a Suter or McDonagh top 3, nevermind top 5/10.

I expressed some reservations for Byram, but to me it means I'll carefully look at how much of his points would translate. A 30-50 point rock solid guy a la Suter, McDonagh or Pietrangelo is an easy yes for me. I'm not sure that's what he is though, not yet at least.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

If we don't get a top 5 pick, Byram becomes a definite option. Kid doesn't turn 18 til next June. He's close to a PPG pace, plays in all situations and plays with pace.

He's going to blow by last year's stats.

 

[montreal]

watching the Sags, Hendrix Lapierre has been impressive again, interested to see where he goes in 2020.

 

[Mrb1p]

watching the Sags, Hendrix Lapierre has been impressive again, interested to see where he goes in 2020.

Hes a top 10 lock for me, unless things change drastically. Love the skills.

 

[Mrb1p]

I guess that's where we differ. You'll have a hard time convincing me that a 24+ minute per game, all situation d-man that will put up 30-40 points per season, maybe 50 on a good year, is a bad pick in the top 5-10.

If you offer any team an 18 year old McDonagh or Suter for a draft pick within the 5-10 range, I'm pretty sure they all say yes.

I would quite easily pick a Suter or McDonagh top 3, nevermind top 5/10.

I expressed some reservations for Byram, but to me it means I'll carefully look at how much of his points would translate. A 30-50 point rock solid guy a la Suter, McDonagh or Pietrangelo is an easy yes for me. I'm not sure that's what he is though, not yet at least.

Its not as simple as this, because in the top 3/5 you might have three first line C, or four, or maybe even five, depending on Kakko. I don't see any reasonable argument to have Byram ahead of Dach, Cozens, Kakker, Hughes and Turcotte.

How many teams would choose McDonagh over a 1C ?

 

[Andrei79]

Its not as simple as this, because in the top 3/5 you might have three first line C, or four, or maybe even five, depending on Kakko. I don't see any reasonable argument to have Byram ahead of Dach, Cozens, Kakker, Hughes and Turcotte.

How many teams would choose McDonagh over a 1C ?

You barely get 1-2 real number 1Cs from any given first round. Sometimes, you get really lucky and there are 3, but most players don't project as number 1Cs. Even less when you draft past the top 2 picks. They project as "top 6" centers because it's a more accurate and realistic ceiling.

A Suter/McDonagh level defenseman is anything between the 1st to 5th best player in any given first round, but closer to the 2nd/3rd best, so that's easily worth a top 5 pick, even moreso top 10, if that's truly your projection of that player. Meaning, an all situation top 10D who can play 25-30 minutes a game.

 

[Janne Niinimaa]

Its not as simple as this, because in the top 3/5 you might have three first line C, or four, or maybe even five, depending on Kakko. I don't see any reasonable argument to have Byram ahead of Dach, Cozens, Kakker, Hughes and Turcotte.

How many teams would choose McDonagh over a 1C ?

Let's take a look at 5 past drafts that we can start judging:

2011: #1 Nugent-Hopkins, #5 Ryan Strome, #6 Mika Zibanejad
2012: #3 Alex Galchenyuk
2013: #3 Jonathan Drouin, #5 Elias Lindholm
2014: #2 Sam Reinhart, #4 Sam Bennett
2015: #3 Dylan Strome, #6 Pavel Zacha

That's just picks around the top 5 that were supposed to be #1 centres. Those picks are worth more than drafting a surefire #1 D? Now obviously it's hard to project. I'm with you on not passing on Hughes or Kaakko for Byram, but I have him in a tier with Cozens and Dach. Of course Byram could fail to become a Suter/McDonagh but the argument that him becoming that isn't worthy of a top 5-10 pick is just ridiculous to me.

 

[Mrb1p]

Let's take a look at 5 past drafts that we can start judging:

2011: #1 Nugent-Hopkins, #5 Ryan Strome, #6 Mika Zibanejad
2012: #3 Alex Galchenyuk
2013: #3 Jonathan Drouin, #5 Elias Lindholm
2014: #2 Sam Reinhart, #4 Sam Bennett
2015: #3 Dylan Strome, #6 Pavel Zacha

That's just picks around the top 5 that were supposed to be #1 centres. Those picks are worth more than drafting a surefire #1 D? Now obviously it's hard to project. I'm with you on not passing on Hughes or Kaakko for Byram, but I have him in a tier with Cozens and Dach. Of course Byram could fail to become a Suter/McDonagh but the argument that him becoming that isn't worthy of a top 5-10 pick is just ridiculous to me.

He's worthy of a top 10 pick, most likely. He's just not "worth" it, to me.

Looking at prior drafts, drafting Kotkaniemi and a guy like Alexeyev/Addison is worth more than drafting Dobson and Veleno, don't you agree ?

Or Pettersson/Mittlestatd and Timmins/Hague/Brook is worth more than drafting Makar/Heiskanen and Anderson Dolan.

At least, to me.

You barely get 1-2 real number 1Cs from any given first round. Sometimes, you get really lucky and there are 3, but most players don't project as number 1Cs. Even less when you draft past the top 2 picks. They project as "top 6" centers because it's a more accurate and realistic ceiling.

A Suter/McDonagh level defenseman is anything between the 1st to 5th best player in any given first round, but closer to the 2nd/3rd best, so that's easily worth a top 5 pick, even moreso top 10, if that's truly your projection of that player. Meaning, an all situation top 10D who can play 25-30 minutes a game.

Its all potential upside, Byram is not more or less likely to hit his upside than Cozens or Dach. I doubt theres any relevance to year by year statistics when it comes to first round C's, there's just too many variables.

What is definable though, is that IMO, a 1C is more valuable than a 1D, and especially one that doesn't really control the play like say, McDonagh.

 

[Janne Niinimaa]

He's worthy of a top 10 pick, most likely. He's just not "worth" it, to me.

Looking at prior drafts, drafting Kotkaniemi and a guy like Alexeyev/Addison is worth more than drafting Dobson and Veleno, don't you agree ?

Or Pettersson/Mittlestatd and Timmins/Hague/Brook is worth more than drafting Makar/Heiskanen and Anderson Dolan.

At least, to me.

I differed on the Veleno opinion compared to most. I still had him in my top 15. I would take Smith+Veleno, if I can take Smith over Dobson, over Kotkaniemi+Alexeyev/Addison. I would also take Heiskanen+JAD over Mittlestadt+any of those D. But I would take Pettersson+any of the D. Depends the D-man and depends the centre.

 

[Andrei79]

He's worthy of a top 10 pick, most likely. He's just not "worth" it, to me.

Looking at prior drafts, drafting Kotkaniemi and a guy like Alexeyev/Addison is worth more than drafting Dobson and Veleno, don't you agree ?

Or Pettersson/Mittlestatd and Timmins/Hague/Brook is worth more than drafting Makar/Heiskanen and Anderson Dolan.

At least, to me.


Its all potential upside, Byram is not more or less likely to hit his upside than Cozens or Dach. I doubt theres any relevance to year by year statistics when it comes to first round C's, there's just too many variables.

What is definable though, is that IMO, a 1C is more valuable than a 1D, and especially one that doesn't really control the play like say, McDonagh.

There is relevance. It speaks to how rare that event actually occurs and in the same vein, how hard it is to become one and what sort of skillset that's needed. It basically means you need to 1. be nearing perfection against junior aged players during your draft year. 2. be nearing that "near perfection" while showing significant potential for growth from an already strong base.

While the draft is strong in Cs, I don't think it's strong in either 1 or 2 outside the top 3. I'd also say McDonagh can and has controlled the play in his prime. We were even victims of it when he put the Rangers on his back and thoroughly trashed us in the ECF.

But truly, it's fine if he's not worth the pick for you. But, seeing your love for Weber, I know you'd be a happy camper if we added a Suter clone (knowing that a perfect close is impossible) with a top 5 pick. And, I've been ranking Byram close to how you have, with the Cs in front, but its a work in progress and I need a lot more Byram viewings.

 

[Andrei79]

BTW,

Watched Seider's 8 minute shift by shift and while not much happened, he looked waayyyy more comfortable and quick than he did earlier in the year. Skating and decision making looked much better. Keeping an eye on him, he might be there for one of our 2nds.

 

[Stive Morgan]

Attending Victoria vs. Kelowna tonight, will post my thoughts on Korczak and Foote when I get home.

 

[The Great Weal]

Kokkonen with his first goal. I would like to take a chance on him with another 1st.

 

[Mrb1p]

Kokkonen with his first goal. I would like to take a chance on him with another 1st.

Might not last too far, I think hes over Honka at this point.