2019 Entry Draft Thread: Part III
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WeThreeKings
Habs cup - its in the BAG
Not about numbers but quality. Between Kotkaniemi, Poehling, Suzuki, Olofsson, Hillis, McShane, Ikonen, Fonstad, Evans, Vejdemo, etc plus Danault on the roster the Habs are fairly deep in terms of plausible NHL center prospects, but it's very "middle six" heavy except for Kotkaniemi who I don't think is a truly elite prospect either. Having lots of legit NHL centers is better than having few, but it's not good enough to just have "OK" center depth, especially in this division where 5 different teams are lead with a 1C that's unquestionably in the top 15 in the world (and one of those teams has two), and between Eichel, Matthews, and Barkov you have three guys that could very easily be top 5 in the near future depending on Crosby and Malkin's aging curves. And that's without even counting Tampa who have two centers just outside the top 15ish.
That's a problem for the Habs, it sucks but the reality is to get anywhere in the playoffs is going to mean going through a murderer's row of some of the best centermen alive. Kotkaniemi is the only C prospect with legit star potential in the system, and even the most optimistic fan can't honestly believe Kotkaniemi is going to stack up against Matthews, Eichel, Bergeron, Barkov, Stamkos, etc. I like Kotkaniemi a lot and Poehling is good too but they need that singular talent that allows the center position to become a legitimate strength rather than just good compared to the past 20 years or so.
Mrb1p
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Why wouldnt Kotkaniemi stack up against these Cs? Did we draft him to be a 2C? If so, it was a mistake. Kotkaniemi was drafted because he has a legit chance at being a top 15 C in the NHL. Doesnt mean hes going to put up 100 points, it means hes going to be good enough to center most 1st lines in the NHL and only the true elite of the elite will stack ip against him. Bergeron, Kopitar, Barkov, Backstrom and Kuznetsov isnt far off the potential of Kotkaniemi and all those guys are good enough to be your 1st or 2nd C, you just need another one of that quality.
Mrb1p
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Mrb1p
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Andrei79
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Vachon23
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WeThreeKings
Habs cup - its in the BAG
Because Matthews, Tavares, Eichel, Barkov, and Bergeron are some of the best centers alive. I just don't think he has that level of potential, I don't think he's going to be completely overmatched but if we're talking Kotkaniemi matching Matthews/Eichel/Barkov I'm not exactly over the moon about Poehling matching up against Tavares/Trocheck/Point etc. It's not about me thinking Kotkaniemi will be bad or that the Habs center prospects will be bad, I just am not content with adequate to good center depth when the division has 5 teams with elite or borderline elite center depth.
I dunno, depends how you're defining 2C and 1C. He's likely going to be a 1C in the sense he should be somewhere in the top 30 centers in the NHL in his prime, but if you're intending to compete for a cup that likely isn't good enough at 1C, and it's especially tough when this division is loaded with elite centers. The Habs should be fine and maybe even good with Kotkaniemi as their 1C, but I'm skeptical he's a good enough 1C to make the team a contender.
Just look at Nashville for a comparison, a plausible (not super likely but not impossible) development path for Kotkaniemi-Poehling-Danault is that they end up as effective as Johansen-Turris-Bonino, and a center group of that quality is only a contender when they're playing with the best defense in the league and in front of two first pairings. I don't think the Habs project as being anywhere near Nashville/Anaheim deep on defense so I think the Habs need to take that in to account and plan for the possibility one or more of the center prospects don't pan out as we'd hope.
Doesn't really mean it was a mistake to draft him either, there just aren't tons of elite talents in every draft. In this draft there were probably two elite guys and they went 1-2, and after that there's a good argument that Kotkaniemi was BPA among what was left and is a great fit for the team. Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier aren't going to be the type of player that stacks up against Eichel or Matthews or Barkov either, that doesn't mean they were bad picks.
I guess I just think it's a real stretch to expect him to reach the level of those players. It's not impossible but I don't think he's a Backstrom level talent, let alone Bergeron, Kopitar, or Barkov. Kuznetsov is certainly possible, but again that level of player only works on a contender in a tandem with another high end C (and the best goal scorer to ever play the game on the wing).
Mrb1p
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Come on... last year? We raved all year about that top 10 and now youre going to tell me it wasnt strong?
2017 ? Hischier, Pettersson, Patrick, Heiskanen, Makar, Glass, Mittlestatd, Vilardi, Necas...
2012 was weak at the top, and there was a lot of busts, but I have to blame Edmonton, CBJ, MTL, NYI and its true that the draft seems weaker. Insightful? Most likely. Yakupov was seen as a future 40G scorer and had the talent for it, Forsberg, Galchenyuk, Grigorenko looked like future 1st liners, Dumba, Rielly, Murray, Trouba etc.
I hate this tendency to trash last years draft then to trash the current draft because youve grown used to it and to think next years draft will be better... never ending cycle of f***ery.
Mrb1p
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Why dont you think he is good enough to reach that level? In his skillset, what makes you think hes going to be inferior to these?
WeThreeKings
Habs cup - its in the BAG
I didn't love last year's top ten at all. There was a reason for disappointment when we didn't get top two. I found it hard to get excited about anyone after Kotkaniemi, Boqvist, Wahlstrom and Dobson.
Mrb1p
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Good. Number 3 OA, number 8 Oa, number 12 Oa and number 13 Oa, you basically proved my point, teams got good players all the way to the middle of the 1st round.
WeThreeKings
Habs cup - its in the BAG
But at 5 there was Hayton. Does that make the draft bad in your eyes then?
I'm looking at the draft purely from my top ten view point. The players rounding out the top ten on my list this year are likely to be a lot better than those last year. That makes this draft a lot better than last year.
I've got a hell of a lot less reservations about Podkolzin as I did with Zadina.
Mrb1p
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Come on, its fine to hate on Zadina, Ive done it, but getting a guy like him outside the top 5 is absolutely amazing.
Nothing about his skillset in particular, just the overall talent level. To me unless you're talking about someone that's absolutely dominating for their age in their draft year (Matthews, Eichel, McDavid, Dahlin, etc) it's more a case of trying to justify why he will reach that level of being one of the top 10-15 centers in the world rather than finding reasons he won't. His skillset projects very well, he has good size, controls the puck very well, has excellent vision and good hands and has a great shot as well, I think he's going to be a very good player. I just don't really see anything that screams best in the world at his position is all. That's just a super high bar and I don't want to count my chickens before they've hatched. I could be wrong and I'd love to be wrong, my argument isn't that Kotkaniemi is bad or will be bad, it's just that I would rather have two high end centers than one and we have to plan for the possibility that one or more of Kotka/Poehling/Suzuki don't pan out as we'd hope.
Regardless, even if we are as charitable as possible and say he's a Kuznetsov we still need a Backstrom and Poehling isn't that. That's my whole argument here, I have a high opinion of Kotkaniemi and think he's going to be a very very good player, but I don't think he's going to be that singular elite talent that can carry a team, and even if he does reach that level we still need another high end center because we don't have a Nashville level defense that lets you be a contender with Turris at 2C. Hell, even the Jets, Scheifele is probably the best case scenario for Kotkaniemi's development curve, and they're still scrambling to find a 2C even with an embarrassment of riches on the wing and a strong group of defensemen.
The Great Weal
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SOLR
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Pompeius Magnus
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I liked what I saw for what was his first game at the position against men, even if a bit rough in his own end. He's not afraid to cut through the middle to disrupt defensive coverage.
Still don't know how it went unassisted but his pass on the goal.
Still don't know how it went unassisted but his pass on the goal.
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